Bottom-line uptick in Q4 Axactor
Sakset fra DNB engelske analyser.
AXACTOR Bottom-line uptick in Q4 Axactor reported a bottom line of NOK4.4m in Q4, up from around zero in recent quarters. The result was boosted by revaluations of NPLs while REO collections were lower than we forecast, partly due to a market setback in October–November related to political issues in Spain. We have cut our 2019–2020e EPS by ~7% to account for the updated ERC curves with more REO collections being pushed further out in time. We find Axactor attractively valued at a 2020e P/E of 4.9x and we keep our BUY and NOK50 target price.
Solid NPL performance. Q4 saw strong collection growth on NPLs with EUR39.6m collected, close to a doubling from the EUR20.1m in Q4 2017 (EUR35m in Q3 2018). The collection performance was said to have been 5% better than set out in the business case, while the outperformance is broad-based with a tilt towards Nordic consumer finance portfolios. Axactor booked a positive revaluation of portfolios for NPLs of EUR3.2m, which was only partly offset by a EUR2.1m negative revaluation in the REOs segment.
NPV of cash flow from REOs reduced. The REO collection missed our Q4 estimate due to REO sales having been paused in October–November due to political uncertainty (resolved before the beginning of December, when the market picked up again). This related to the payment of stamp duty. Axactor said it would consider selling groups of properties in 2019 to speed up the cash flow generation from REOs, and that the underlying market, price levels and asset values remain largely intact.
2019–2020e EPS cut on updated collection curves. Axactor presented updated ERC curves, where in particular the collection on REOs is expected to come further out in time, implying lower collections in 2019–2020 than we previously assumed. This should also reduce total amortisation and collection costs somewhat. However, the net effect is a 7% reduction in our 2019–2020e EPS.
BUY and NOK50 target price reiterated. We find Axactor attractively valued at a 2020e EV/EBIT of ~9.5x, combined with our expectation of strong earnings growth and a healthy revenue mix with a relatively high share of Debt Collection earnings. We expect a significant bottom-line improvement through 2019e and 2020e, as the ERC of EUR1.6bn has nearly doubled over the past year, driving higher revenues, while costs have not increased correspondingly. We also expect significantly better quarterly results in 2019, as the platform established in recent years allows for higher margins from better utilisation, and economies of scale materialise due to high NPL investments.
AXACTOR Bottom-line uptick in Q4 Axactor reported a bottom line of NOK4.4m in Q4, up from around zero in recent quarters. The result was boosted by revaluations of NPLs while REO collections were lower than we forecast, partly due to a market setback in October–November related to political issues in Spain. We have cut our 2019–2020e EPS by ~7% to account for the updated ERC curves with more REO collections being pushed further out in time. We find Axactor attractively valued at a 2020e P/E of 4.9x and we keep our BUY and NOK50 target price.
Solid NPL performance. Q4 saw strong collection growth on NPLs with EUR39.6m collected, close to a doubling from the EUR20.1m in Q4 2017 (EUR35m in Q3 2018). The collection performance was said to have been 5% better than set out in the business case, while the outperformance is broad-based with a tilt towards Nordic consumer finance portfolios. Axactor booked a positive revaluation of portfolios for NPLs of EUR3.2m, which was only partly offset by a EUR2.1m negative revaluation in the REOs segment.
NPV of cash flow from REOs reduced. The REO collection missed our Q4 estimate due to REO sales having been paused in October–November due to political uncertainty (resolved before the beginning of December, when the market picked up again). This related to the payment of stamp duty. Axactor said it would consider selling groups of properties in 2019 to speed up the cash flow generation from REOs, and that the underlying market, price levels and asset values remain largely intact.
2019–2020e EPS cut on updated collection curves. Axactor presented updated ERC curves, where in particular the collection on REOs is expected to come further out in time, implying lower collections in 2019–2020 than we previously assumed. This should also reduce total amortisation and collection costs somewhat. However, the net effect is a 7% reduction in our 2019–2020e EPS.
BUY and NOK50 target price reiterated. We find Axactor attractively valued at a 2020e EV/EBIT of ~9.5x, combined with our expectation of strong earnings growth and a healthy revenue mix with a relatively high share of Debt Collection earnings. We expect a significant bottom-line improvement through 2019e and 2020e, as the ERC of EUR1.6bn has nearly doubled over the past year, driving higher revenues, while costs have not increased correspondingly. We also expect significantly better quarterly results in 2019, as the platform established in recent years allows for higher margins from better utilisation, and economies of scale materialise due to high NPL investments.
Redigert 19.01.2021 kl 06:36
Du må logge inn for å svare
Marketwatch
14.02.2019 kl 09:53
1484
Utsiktene til Axa er bra de. Men: analysen fra Dnb er basert på at de oppnår et godt resultat i 2020 og utover.
Dette medfører større usikkerhet enn verdsettelsen av B2h, da dette selskapet allerede går med et betydelig overskudd.
Dette er grunnen til at jeg i går solgte mine Axa aksjer, og istedet investerte ytterligere i B2h. Om dette var en korrekt
beslutning vil vise seg etterhvert, ikke minst ved kommende resultatpresentasjon 28/2.
Dette medfører større usikkerhet enn verdsettelsen av B2h, da dette selskapet allerede går med et betydelig overskudd.
Dette er grunnen til at jeg i går solgte mine Axa aksjer, og istedet investerte ytterligere i B2h. Om dette var en korrekt
beslutning vil vise seg etterhvert, ikke minst ved kommende resultatpresentasjon 28/2.
Dette er en Axa tråd og hvem, dersom what
Møkklei denne manipulasjon som foregår Norden skulle vært priset hvertfall 4kr høyere. Jeg holder støtter svin og ødelegger kursen. Håper virkelig at disse går på en gedigen short squize. Nok er nok 27 mnd med press og press på kursen
triggerhappy10
14.02.2019 kl 10:08
1432
Ser gutta nå skal på roadshow, spennende om dette vil gi mer interesse og dermed booste kurs. Kursen holdes selvsagt nede grunnet liten likviditet.
Alt det manipulation om at nu skal man sælge, er kun til shorters og små sparer som markedswatch, som øjner en lille gevinst.
AXA viser de er en penge maskine og det kan ikke overraske mig hvis de er over kurs 40 allerede i år, altså næsten en fordobling.
Kommer de op i 40-50 kan der sagtens komme en fond de vil købe hele selskabet til en kurs på 100.
AXA er faldet i slutning af 2018 og det er alene bankernes skyld, deres utroværdighed smitter af på branchen.
AXA strong buy
AXA viser de er en penge maskine og det kan ikke overraske mig hvis de er over kurs 40 allerede i år, altså næsten en fordobling.
Kommer de op i 40-50 kan der sagtens komme en fond de vil købe hele selskabet til en kurs på 100.
AXA er faldet i slutning af 2018 og det er alene bankernes skyld, deres utroværdighed smitter af på branchen.
AXA strong buy
Bottom line var vel i EUR, ikke NOK? 4,4 * 9,77 (kurs 21.02.2019) = 43,0 MNOK
Alle tall I Q4 rapport er oppgitt i 1000 EUR.
Bra og se at småsparere er mer disiplinert ,at ikke flere ser yvir mye aksjen er manipulert. 5ganger flere selgere enn kjøpere. Kunstig ordrebildet her skal klart store investorer inn om litt