Maha Energy - En svensk perle med lav verdsettelse


Maha Energy har oliefelter i Brasilien og USA. (Tie, Tartaruga og LAK) og handles pt. til P/E lige under 8,5 - Marketcap ca. 220M $ and 20M $ i cash

P1 (90% sandsynlighed) - 8,9M barrels
P2 (50% sandsynlighed) - 32,77M barrels
P3 (10% sandsynlighed) - 59,03M barrels

Seneste kursmål

Sparebank 1 - 23 SEK - 29/11-2018
Sparebank 1 - 26 SEK - 10/10-2018
Sparebank 1 - 24 SEK - 10/9-2018
Arctic - 28 SEK - 30/8-2018

Netback pr. barrel:
1Q 2018 - 37,02$
2Q 2018 - 39,22$
3Q 2018 - 46,17$
4Q 2018 - 41,80$

Produktion:
1Q 2018 - 1.762 bbl/d
2Q 2018 - 1.429 bbl/d
3Q 2018 - 1.566 bbl/d
4Q 2018 - 2.454 bbl/d

Forventninger til 2019:
As a minimum the Company expects to achieve, those production levels reflected in its April 2017 Five Year Capital Plan: an average annual net production of 3,990 BOPD for 2019 and 4,820 BOPD for 2020.

2019 Capital Plan Budget
The 2019 Capital Plan has a total budget of USD 20 million for the above incremental projects and is expected to be funded fully through operating cash flow. Except if either of TS1 or the TS2 wells are delayed into 2020 (see above), it is anticipated most of these costs will be incurred in 2019.

Oliefelt Tie
100% working interests in six onshore concession agreements located in the Reconcavo Basin of Brazil. One of the concessions includes the oil producing Tie Field consisting of two (2) dually completed wells (GTE-3 and GTE-4) and one water injection well (ALV-2). The 38 API oil production is from two, separate, sandstone units called the Agua Grande and Sergi formations.
The Tie field does not have ready access to oil or gas pipeline outlets, hence the oil and parts of the associated gas are trucked from the field.

Crude oil from the Tie Field is sold to Petrobras and a nearby refinery. For crude oil sold to the refinery, the current discount is USD 8/bbl. Effective April 1 2018, crude oil sold from the Tie Field to Petrobras is sold at a discount to Brent price of USD 5.42/bbl plus an additional 2.6% discount on the net price (previously USD 8.48/bbl).

Wells på Tie
GTE 3
(historisk AG 45%/Sergi 55% - 2 produktionsrør á 1.000 bbl. I juli 18 producerede den 960 bbl/d+ca 43 bbl gas fra kun AG, så hvis AG er lig 45% så vil Sergi begrænset til 1.000 bbl)

GTE 4
AG/Sergi inkl. waterinjektion

Attic well (2019)
AG/Sergi/Biopeba

Tie south (2019)

Royalties
Goverment - 10%
Landowners - 1%
Overriding - 0%

P1 - 5,60M
P2 - 11,78M
P3 - 13,54M
OOIP >92M

Producerede pr. 31/12 2018 - >2.500 bbl/d

Tie - 2019 Capital Plan
Tie South 1 and Tie South 2 Wells
The Company plans to drill two new wells at the Tie field (“TS-1” and “TS-2”) in order to maintain the field’s long-term production plateau. While these wells are currently scheduled to be drilled back-to-back towards the end of 2019 the exact spud date is wholly dependent on normal course regulatory approvals such as a well license. Permitting has already commenced and is expected to take eight months to complete. Given this timing there is some likelihood the Company will not complete both wells prior to year-end. It should be noted maintaining the Tie Field production plateau during 2019 is not dependent on the drilling of these wells.

Facility Upgrade
There is currently no anticipated requirement for additional facilities at Tie field other than completion of the work as per above. If results from the Attic Well and other planned operations exceed expectations, the Company may re-visit further additions to the 2019 Capital Program for additional facilities at Tie.


Oliefelt Tartaruga

75% working interest in the Tartaruga development block, located in the Sergipe Alagoas Basin onshore Brazil. The Tartaruga oil field is located in the northern half of the 13,201 acre (53.4 km2) Tartaruga Block and produces 41° API oil from two deviated wells drilled into the early Cretaceous Penedo Formation.

Crude oil from the Tartaruga Block is entirely sold to Petrobras. During the first half of 2018, crude oil sold from the Tartaruga Block was sold at a discount of USD 1.34/bbl and effective July 1 2018 will be sold at a premium of USD 0.41/bbl to Brent.

Wells på Tartaruga
107-D - Penedo 1
7TTG - Penedo 6
6TTG
108D

Royalties
Goverment - 9,7%
Landowners - 1%
Overriding - 10% (Petrobas)

P1 - 3,83M
P2 - 9,10M
P3 - 29,78M
OOIP >254M
A deeper, regionally producing sandstone, known as the Serraria, has also been mapped but the reservoir content is uncertain at this time. Should the Serraria contain oil, the OOIP previous third party estimates range between 6 million and 236 million barrels of oil originally in place.

Producerede pr. 31/12 2018 - 0 bbl/d

7TTG Well
As previously announced, stimulation clean-up operations of the P1 zone were performed using a dedicated jet pump from February 17th to February 23rd. The cleanup operation saw a significant portion of the stimulation fluids being produced back. Before shutting the well in and removing temporary flowback equipment, the P1 zone produced at a rate of 457 BOPD, 88 BWPD and 113 MSCFPD during a 24-hour flowback period. Note this is a dedicated test of the P1 zone only. The newly perforated P4 zone and the previously producing P6 zone are both temporarily closed off. Further production testing on the P1 zone is ongoing and the well is cleaning up nicely; the latest 24-hour production rate for the P1 zone before pump optimization is over 600 BOPD with negligible water.
Production is expected to be re-established very quickly after installation of permanent production equipment. Thereafter the well will continue to clean up - with oil rates expected to increase and water rates reducing. Once the operations team has completed pump optimization and, if required, reactivation of the P4 & P6 perforations, 7TTG is anticipated to produce hydrocarbons to the current capacity of the Tartaruga facilities which is between 500 and 800 BOPD depending on the results of the current well tests.
107 D (Tartaruga Field)
The new horizontal sidetrack reached a Total Depth of 3661 m as of 18 December, 2018 and the horizontal sidetrack has now been lined with a 3-1/2” liner that has been installed and sealed. Certain required non-standard specialty perforating equipment has been identified and will be air freighted to Brazil as soon as possible.

Tartaruga - 2019 Capital Plan
Delineation Well (MH-1)
The Company plans to drill a new well from the Tartaruga site during 2019 (“MH-1”). The objective of the MH -1 well is to further test hereto untested sandstone zones in the Penedo reservoir. The Penedo reservoir consists of up to 27 sandstone zones (hereinafter referred to as ‘sands’). All sands have been penetrated and logged in previous wells and all indications are that these sands contain oil, but only four (4) sands have been previously tested in order to confirm oil content. All four tested sands have tested varying amounts of oil.

MH-1 will be drilled to the base of the Penedo sandstone. Electric logging results will dictate the scope of the Drill Stem Testing Program at the time. On the conclusion of the tests, the MH-1 well will be placed on production and connected to the Tartaruga Facility.

It is not anticipated that the Tartaruga Facility will be shut in during the drilling activities of the MH-1 well. The Company expects 7TTG and 107D (once perforated and hooked up) to produce continuously through 2019, except during shutdowns required for the Facility expansion, if any.
Facility Upgrade
The production test results from the 107D Sidetrack and the 7TTG Workover will dictate upgrade requirements for the production handling facilities at Tartaruga field. Based on present understandings it is anticipated facilities will be initially upgraded during 2019 with a view to handle up to 2,500 BOPD and 500 MSCFPD of associated gas. Environmental licenses have been obtained for the implementation of a Gas-to-Wire project that will handle the excess gas for this upgrade. This facility work is expected to be completed during the second half of 2019. Further associated gas handling is currently being designed for implementation in 2020.

Oliefelt LAK

99% working interest in the LAK Ranch oil field, located on the eastern edge of the multi-billion barrel Powder River Basin in Wyoming, USA.

The crude oil density produced from the LAK area is 19° API.

Olien sælges til WTI priser med en rabat på 7 $ jf. seneste oplysninger i 2018.

Breakeven ved WTI 35 $ og 300 bbl/d

Expansion phase 2018 entails drilling two more horizontal producing wells and six vertical injector wells. Thereafter, additional injection and production patterns will be drilled annually with 9 wells being drilled in 2019 and 2020. 10 wells will be drilled in 2021 and production facilities will be expanded at a cost of $1.0 million to handle the additional production. Because the LAK reservoir is very shallow in depth, each well is expected to cost $550,000 to drill, complete, and hook up.

Forventer at når udviklingsplan udrulles at der bores over 100 produktionshuller over 5-6 år, a ca. 550.000 $ pr. stk.

Ledelsen forventer at en well kan producere ca. 10-15 år uden nævneværdig produktionsfald fra år til år.

LAK producerede inden 2018 programmet det beskedne bbl/d af 40 og alle omkostningerne er blevet aktiveret som balancepost i regnskabet - i alt er ca. 18,5M $ aktiveret pr. 3 kvt 2018.

LAK - 2019 Capital Plan
Production Optimization
2019 will be a year of production optimization and evaluation. So far, no investment decision has been made for LAK in 2019. Capital will only be spent if: a) the results show positive netback numbers for the field, b) further capital investments are ranked above other opportunities that the Company might have during 2019, and c) Board of Director review and approval.




Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Lidt sammenligninger på netback på olieselskaber for 4 kvartal:

Tullow oil - 60,5 $ (dog er dette 2 halvår og derfor så den gode periode)
Lundin Petro - 56,05 $
Aker BP - 48,84 $
Maha - 41,80 $
Tethys Oil - 29,51 $ (dog er dette med den høje oliepris, pga. 2 mdr. forskydning i modtagne salgspriser)
Touchstone - 26,25 $
Gran Tierra - 24,75 $
International Petro. - 18,56 $
DNO - 18,4 $
Shamaran Petr. - 17,39 $

En lidt anden model er at tage selv samme netback og trække depletion (afskrivning) fra:

Lundin Petro - 41,69 $
Tullow oil - 40,60 $ (dog er dette 2 halvår og derfor så den gode periode)
Maha - 35,46 $
Aker BP - 33,75 $
Tethys Oil - 18,82 $ (dog er dette med den høje oliepris, pga. 2 mdr. forskydning i modtagne salgspriser)
Touchstone - 18,67 $
DNO - 9,51 $
International Petro. - 8,94 $
Gran Tierra - 7,62 $
Shamaran Petr. - minus 2,83 $
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Fortsættelsen af sammenligninger - nu på net result pr barrel oil

Maha - 31,04 $ (korrigeret for engangsindtægt på udskudt skat)Tethys Oil - 18,18 $ (dog er dette med den høje oliepris, pga. 2 mdr. forskydning i modtagne salgspriser)
Tullow oil - 2,28 $ (dog er dette 2 halvår og derfor så den gode periode)
Aker BP - 3,79 $
International Petro. - 1,35 $
DNO - 0,73 $ (korrigeret for engangsindtægt pga. ændret indtægtskriterie - tidligere kvartaller har ligget på 2-8$)
Gran Tierra - negativt -3,09 $
Lundin Petro - negativt -12,98 $
Shamaran Petr. - negativt -19,36 $
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Ved et lille kig ind på MarketScreener - som tager analytikernes estimater - så kan man se at analytikerne forventer at indtjening pr. aktie i 2019 vil blive 2,89 SEK og stigende til 5,1 SEK i 2020. Dette svarer til en P/E på 7,46 og 4,24. Det er næste skræmmende lavt. Selskabet har intention om at upliste selskabet så det kommer op på den store børs i sverige så investorerne kan værdiansætte selskabet korrekt. Markedet er ikke go til at håndtere at selskabet har så lav gæld sammenlignet med Lundin selskaberne sammenholdt med at Maha tjener så store summer pr. barrel olie, at kun Lundin Petroleum kan matche selskabet.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Ved nuværende oliepris på 67 dollars ligger nuværende netback på ca. 47$ på de 2 felter i Brasilien.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Tie field - At the moment, the Plant is capable of handling up to 5,000 BOPD - "It should be noted maintaining the Tie Field production plateau during 2019 is not dependent on the drilling of these wells (TS-1 og TS-2)." og "There is currently no anticipated requirement for additional facilities at Tie field other than completion of the work as per above. If results from the Attic Well and other planned operations exceed expectations, the Company may re-visit further additions to the 2019 Capital Program for additional facilities at Tie." Oversat så forventer man at fylde alle 5.000 BOPD ud med CAPEX programmet fra 2018, og hvis Attic well overstiger forventningerne så udvider man. GTE3 og GTE4 kan nå ca. 1.900 BOPD hver og ca. 1.200 BOPD er der sat af til Attic well. Mere end 1.200 BOPD og faciliteterne vil blive udvidet...
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare

Har vært med lenge, og er svært fornøyd med det?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 23:36 Du må logge inn for å svare