Fra Stig Myrseth sin ukentlige oppdatering i dag:

"I Dovre-porteføljen erstattes Kitron med Golden Ocean. Jeg ser større oppside i sistnevnte på kort sikt, selv om jeg er positiv til begge langsiktig. Etter kinesisk nyttår pleier både bulkrater og bulkaksjer å gå i rallymodus.

Dovre-porteføljen

• Flex LNG
• Borr Drilling
• Archer
• TGS
• Bank Norwegian
• Golden Ocean
Inn: Golden Ocean
Ut: Kitron"

Rally i dag!

Jepp, i dag blir det rally. NOK har svekket seg også de siste dagene. Dette er også en driver for høyere kurs på OSE.

Pre-Trade 66.9 and looking strong

Et par fine slutninger på fredagskvelden gir også håp om stigning for BCI i dag også.

Fin åpning....hører saueflokken i det fjerne...vi blåser over 70 igjen denne uken

Herlig - nå startet det! :-)

2018-02-12 11:01:13 CET
GOGL:MORGAN STANLEY NEDGRADERER TIL EQUAL-WEIGHT, KURSMÅL USD 9,50
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Morgan Stanley nedgraderer anbefalingen på Golden Ocean-aksjen til "equal-weight" fra "overweight" med et kursmål på 9,50 dollar, ifølge Bloomberg News mandag.

Noen som har ratene for i dag ?

Golden Ocean stiger i skrivende stund 3,80 prosent på Oslo Børs til 66,95 kroner.

Analytiker Jo Ringheim i Arctic Securities viser ifølge TDN Finans til at amerikanske shippingaksjer hadde god utvikling fredag, samt at capesize-ratene avsluttet foregående uke sterkt.

- Blant annet steg Scorpio Bulkers og Star Bulk godt på fredag, og selv om capesize-ratene forrige uke i snitt var flate på ukebasis, avsluttet de sterkt på om lag 14.000 dollar, mot 11.000 dollar ved inngangen til uken, sier han til TDN Direkt.

Fredag endte Scorpio Bulkers opp 4,93 prosent, mens Star Bulk steg 3,84 prosent.

- Dette slår nok inn

Analytikeren viser ifølge nyhetsbyrået videre til at 2019-FFA-kontraktene for capesize-skip fredag sluttet opp 3,4 prosent.

- Dette slår nok inn på det norske markedet nå, og det var nok dette som førte til den sterke utviklingen i USA ved utgangen av forrige uke, sier Ringheim.

«I en høyere korridor»

Gode marginer for kinesiske stålmøller har ifølge Bloomberg News i en lengre periode vært blant de indirekte driverne av tørrbulkratene, og Citigroup venter at stålprisene vil holde seg oppe i 2018, skriver TDN Finans.

«Stålprisene vil holdes i en høyere korridor enn i 2017, ettersom tilbudssidereformer hjelper til med å begrense produksjonsveksten», skriver Citigroup.

Banken venter videre at dette trolig vil styrke jernmalm ytterligere, på tross av et overtilbud, og da spesielt høyverdig malm. Store volumer av denne typen malm løftes fra Brasil og Australia til Kina.

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -0,2% TIL 1.123 POENG
Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 0,2 prosent til 1.123 poeng,

Baltic Dry -0,2%
Panamax -1,0%
Handysize -1,1%
Supramax -0,5%

Nok en dag med oppgang i BCI:-)

Ho ho ? Vendingen er definitivt bekreftet.

Gogl kommer til å gå som varmt hvetebrød i US i kveld

Hadde det bare kommet nyheter om innsidekjøp også nå snart så hadde det blitt moro ?

GOGL:CLARKSONS PLATOU OPPGRADERER TIL KJØP, KURSMÅL USD 13

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Clarksons Platou Securities oppgraderer anbefalingen på Golden Ocean-aksjen til kjøp fra nøytral, og oppjusterer kursmålet til 13 dollar pr aksje, ifølge en sektorrapport mandag.

Meglerhuset viser til at selskapet ikke lenger er lagt i håndjern av bankene, og at tiden nå er inne for heller å tilfredsstille aksjonærene.

"Det første mulige steget kan være å introdusere utbytte for fjerde kvartal 2017, som basert på våre forventinger kan trappes opp betydelig fremover", skriver Clarkson Platou.

Basert på meglerhusets rateestimater og kontant break even-rate estimeres det at Golden Ocean kan betale utbytte på 96 millioner dollar i 2018, tilsvarende en utbytteavkastning på rundt åtte prosent. I 2019 estimeres 205 millioner dollar i utbytte (17% yield), stigende til 238 millioner dollar i 2020 (20% yield).

Golden Ocean er nå et av Clarkson Platous toppvalg i tørrbulksektoren, og de ser ytterligere oppside i kursmålet basert på mulig yield- og eps-verdsettelse.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

Det er korrekt observert Sandum, og de begynte å dekke inn på fredag. Kan regne med litt opp og ned på ratene nå et par uker før vi skal kraftig nordover:-)

Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Index Remains on Bearish Territiry
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 13/02/2018

Technically the index remains in bearish territory as it is below its medium term moving average. However, price action itself has now made a new high and this is a bullish signal. Downside moves that hold above the USD 11,189 support would be considered as technically bullish based on the recent market high. Below this support the market would be considered as bearish.

Capesize Index Daily
Resistance – 14,894, 16,039, 17,184
Support – 11,189, 11,087, 6792

The Capesize index has now traded above USD 14,065 and created a new market high, having completed a 5-wave correction, this has bullish implications going forward. The 8 period EMA remains blow the 21 period EMA with price action on the 21-period average. The new high has bullish implication, however price action itself remains in bearish territory. The stochastic is now moving up having produced a bullish divergence on the daily chart. Meanwhile on the weekly chart the stochastic at 7 is looking oversold. Upside moves in the index that produce a higher low would support a bullish technical move. A downside move that trades below USD 11,189 would be considered technically bearish. The technical remain in bearish territory, however it is starting to show bullish signs. The weekly candlestick is showing a bullish engulfing candle which would support a bull argument.

Capesize March 18 Daily
Resistance – 17,045, 17,270,17,494
Support – 16,320, 15,470, 14,480

The recent high in the March futures has put the technical back into bullish territory. The stochastic at 88 is now starting to look overbought with technical resistance between USD 17,045 and USD 17,494. Near term technical support is between USD 16,320 and USD 14,480 with the latter being the most important of these. Downside moves that hold above the USD 14,480 level would create a higher market low. Having already created a fresh market high this would be considered as technically bullish going forward. Longer term upside resistance can be found at USD 19,135. Downside moves that trade below the USD 14,480 support would be considered as technically bearish going forward.

Capesize Q2 18 Daily
Resistance – 18,160, 18,801, 20,880
Support – 16,296, 15,440

The 8 – 21 period EMA’s continue to remain as a key support to the current Q2 18 trend. Last weeks divergence was a warning of potential weakening momentum, but as stated not a sell signal. The divergence has failed as prices continued to rally, however the stochastic is now at 97 and should be considered overbought. Technical resistance is at USD 18,160 and USD 18,801. Technically the trend remains bullish. A close below USD 16,296 would create a lower low and this would imply the current bull move is weakening. Market pullbacks that hold above the USD 16,296 would suggest we could see another move higher. However, this would be a 5-wave bull move, if accompanied by a second bearish divergence the market would be considered as technically weakening, and imply a longer term corrective move could soon be upon us.

Capesize Cal 19
Daily Resistance – 17,125, 17,463, 18,560
Support – 16,350, 15,690, 14,695

The Cal 19 futures remain in bullish territory with the first technical resistance at USD 17,125. The stochastic at 99 would suggest the market although in a trending environment, is now looking over extended. Downside moves that hold above the USD 16,350 support would suggest that we could see another upward move. However, this would complete a 5-minor wave up and suggest we could enter a corrective formation, as this would complete a wave 3 of the current move that started in June 17. Downside moves that trade below the USD 16,350 support would suggest the current technical is weakening due to the market making a fresh market low. Technically this trend is due a correction, however the longer-term analysis remains bullish based on the current Elliott Wave cycle.

Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-index-remains-on-bearish-territiry/

Inflasjonstall kommer i morgen fra US... ny trigger?!

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -0,8% TIL 1.114 POENG
: Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 0,8 prosent til 1.114 poeng,

Baltic Dry -0,8%
Panamax -0,7%
Handysize -0,3%
Supramax -0,4%

En liten nedgang ratene i dag. Etter en kraftig økning siste uke forventer jeg ikke det helt store rykket i BCI før om et par uker. Det som også er gledelig er å se at skipsverdiene begynner å krype oppover igjen. Da blir det fort fart i aksjekursene fremover om utviklingen holder seg.

Lukter snart på 62-63 igjen

Blir i hvert fall utslagsgivende, men hvilken retning?

Det er jo strålende nyheter for de som ønsker rimeligere inngang:-)

Greit oppsummert.
https://www.ajot.com/news/global-shipping-is-on-course-for-recovery-in-2018-but-all-eyes-are-on-orderbooks-says-report

Dry Bulkers’ Newbuilding Contracting Retreats After Recent Flurry
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 14/02/2018

As the level of newbuilding contracting will be crucial for the sustained recovery of the dry bulk segment, it’s perhaps good news that the recent flurry of activity was met with a standstill over the course of the past week. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that it was “another interesting week in the Newbuilding market, with a considerable flow of new contracts coming to light. After a couple of weeks of heavy ordering being seen in the Dry Bulk sector, things changed rapidly, with new ordering falling back to minimal levels once more. Given the impressive resilience of late in the main Dry Bulk freight market, one would have assumed that interest would have held steady, though given that a fair amount of the total new orders placed thus far have mainly been attributed to a very select few players and with some relying on a more long term project backing approach. At the same time, given the fact that we are but a breath away from the start of the Chinese New Year festivities, there is an expectation that things should quieten down in the newbuilding market for all vessels types. On the Tanker side of things, there is still a relatively uninspiring level of activity being noted, inline with the subdued climate still being noted in terms of earnings. All-in-all, a balanced level of new ordering took place, with a fair amount being seen on the Containership and Gas Carrier segments as well as from more specialized segments which tend to be more project placed”, Allied said.

In a separate newbuilding report, shipbroker Clarkson Platou Hellas added that “in Dry, Clients of Seatankers Management are reported to have declared an option for two 82,000 DWT Kamsarmax Bulk Carriers at Shanhaiguan. There will be the 3rd and 4th vessel in the series and will deliver in 4Q 2019 and 1Q 2020. In the Gas sector, DSME have received an order for two 173,400 CBM LNG Carriers from BW Gas. The duo are set for delivery within 1H 2020 from Okpo. Hudong Zhonghua have signed a contract for a single 18,600 CBM LNG Bunkering Vessel with MOL for deliver in 2020. This order is against a charter to Total. Hyproc Shipping have extended their series of 13K LPG Carriers at Jiangnan by declaring an option for one additional vessel. Being the 2nd vessel in the series, this unit will be delivered within 2019.

There is one order to report in the Container market, with Samsung winning an order for eight firm 11,000 TEU Container Carriers from Taiwanese owner Evergreen. This series will start to deliver from 1Q 2020 till 2Q 2021 from Geoje, Korea. In other sectors, Scenic Cruises have announced ordering one firm 17,085 GT Cruise Ship at Uljanik Brodogradiliste in Croatia. Delivering in 2020, this vessel will be built to be Ice Class 1A. Finally, Norwegian owner Wilson have signed a contract for two firm 2,600 DWT General Cargo Vessels with Wuxue Janda in China for delivery within 2019”, Clarkson Platou Hellas said.

Meanwhile, in the second hand market, Allied said that “on the dry bulk side, it seems as though we continue to see a slightly softer picture in terms of reported activity, with limited sales reported again this week compared to the levels we have become accustomed to over the past year or so. At the same time we are still seeing the main focus still fixed on the Supramax size segment, with the majority of buyers still showing keen interest here, where they believe a fair amount of opportunity is still available. On the tanker side, there is still limited number of vessels changing hands each week. Things are still under relative pressure, largely in part to the fact that there still seems to be a considerable gap between willing sellers and willing buyers, especially on the more modern tonnage. This explains in part the higher number of older vessels changing hands, while taking a look at the reported VLCCs reported sold this week, the majority of vessels in these larger size segments tend to be around 15 years of age or even older”, the shipbroker concluded.

In a separate note, VesselsValue said this week, that in the dry bulk market, values have firmed across the sector, most notably in Handy tonnage. “An en bloc deal of two Capesize vessels, Mineral Nippon & Rubena N (203,300/203,200 DWT, Mar 2007/Apr 2006, Universal) sold to Winning Shipping for USD 46.3 mil, VV value USD 48.34 mil. Post Panamax Tansanit (92,800 DWT, Sept 2011, COSCO Zhoushan) sold to Interocean for USD 17.2 mil, VV value USD 17.69 mil. Panamax Vika (74,500 DWT, Sept 1999, Sasebo) sold for USD 8.0 mil, VV value USD 7.92 mil. Supramax Albion (58,700 DWT, Dec 2008, Tsuneishi Zhoushan) sold to Thoresen for USD 13.8 mil, VV value USD 13.33 mil. Handy Orient Sunrise (28,500 DWT, May 2001, Kanda) sold for USD 5.7 mil, VV value USD 4.99 million” VV said.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulkers-newbuilding-contracting-retreats-after-recent-flurry/

Et klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Slower for drybulk, with all indices losing ground. Holidays in Asia should mean much of the same over the coming week or so, but we find comfort in both the FFA market and the fact that spot rates are twice the level we had a year ago."

For de som er interessert så bunnet BCI ut 15. februar 2017 på 556 poeng. 14. mars 2017 sto BCI i 1929 poeng.

I går var BCI på 1793.......

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -1,7% TIL 1.095 POENG
Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 1,7 prosent til 1.095 poeng

Baltic Dry -1,7%
Panamax +0,3%
Handysize -0,4%
Supramax +0,7%

Dropp i de amerikanske futtene etter inflasjonstall..
Rød åpning

Q4-presentasjonen er flyttet frem til tirsdag 20. februar ifølge børsmelding.

Fin kveld i USA, opp med 3.09%.

Leser at Marine Harvest låner penger for å betale utbytte. Det skjer ikke uten at Fredriksen stiller seg 100% bak det. Kan være et godt tegn for oss som håper på utbytte i Gogl for 4. Kvartal 2017. Fredriksen vil ha cash ut der det er mulig å hente det. Et fint q4 resultat + melding om utbytte + stigende rater er en fin coctail for oss goglere ?