China Polysilicon Inventory Dumping Concerns over Supply Surging

Solgunn
REC 02.04.2019 kl 09:58 659

With the obvious price corrections of both mono and multi grades polysilicon in China, overall polysilicon prices drop sharply amid the expected supply surging from the capacity expansion in China. Since multi-grade polysilicon is losing the market share clearly, lots of Chinese suppliers have been increasing their inventory level for multi grade polysilicon and shifting their production output to mono grade polysilicon. With the advent of financial closure for quarterly result, the increasing inventory pressure compound by sluggish downstream demand and slashed multi wafer demand eventually compromise Chinese polysilicon suppliers on adjusting multi grade polysilicon prices quotes down significantly. Moreover, all Chinese polysilicon suppliers are expected to see the mono grade supply surge in 2Q19 so as to cut their asking price quote dramatically. On the other hand, polysilicon prices out of China also extend the slump this week following the price correction in China.

Multi-crystalline wafer prices are noticeably lower amid the continuous thin trading, as concerns about lackluster downstream demand feed worries over whether major wafer producers can alleviate the glut of global inventories. Moreover, since upstream polysilicon price plunge clearly, multi-crystalline wafer makers have the room to cut the price quotes in attempt to stimulate demand without the margin erosion. Nonetheless, without clear order visibilities, most buyers remain cautious on procurement, sending multi-crystalline wafer lower further. Meanwhile, since major Chinese mono-crystalline wafer suppliers released their price quote stable in USD term for China (drop in CNY term affected by VAT reduction from 16% to 13% effective on April 1, 2019) and price rising for oversea last week, overall mono-crystalline wafer price rise this week. Because Hanwha Q-cells raised the lawsuit again Longi Solar in the US and EU in the begging of March, Longi decided to raise their mono-crystalline wafer price quotes to Hanwha Q-cells.

Multi-crystalline cell prices drop this week, propelled by demand uncertainty as major suppliers are suffering from declining orders. Lingering worries about the demand backsliding in major market retrieve multi-crystalline cell prices to decline, as curbed by Indian buyers' ebbing appetite for outsourcing procurement. With dimmed demand prospects and depressed market sentiment in the recent weeks, solar cell makers are dumping multi-crystalline cells to prevent inventory write-off from the wave of price slump. On the other hand, the increasing supply for mono PERC cell has been clearly contributing from the aggressive capacity expansions in China, but major local Chinese buyers decide to cut their procurement sharply as they believe that the installation end of China Application Top Runner projects diminish high efficiency mono PERC cell demand. Although the high efficiency mono PERC cell demand from first tier players sustain, the increasing supply and the diminished demand in China make mono PERC market oversupply and price decreasing.

Weakening demand and the upstream price correction continue to fuel multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline PERC module price downtrend, as major suppliers see the unceasing declining order visibility in China. In EU, the increasing pricing pressure is witnessed as some 2nd tier Chinese players are muscling into the market to offset their low orders in China. Moreover, as Chinese solar module makers plan to trim down their shipments to India in 2Q19 as concerns over the traditional slow season may affect the order visibility, bin-busting module supplies flow back into Europe and the countries without trade barriers. In the US, module prices keep steady clearly since all major buyers intend to raise their procurement on high efficiency mono PERC modules.

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