Mono Wafer Assures Solar Entering Bear-Market Territory

Solgunn
REC 11.04.2019 kl 12:32 1038

Mono Wafer Assures Solar Entering Bear-Market Territory

April 10, 2019

Polysilicon prices keep tumbling this week as lingering worries about downstream price weakness weigh on buyers' risk appetite. Since Chinese and overseas polysilicon buyers keep fishing the lowest price quotes, the price targets for polysilicon buyers have continued to erode amid depressed downstream demand. In fact, although the demand of high-purity polysilicon that dedicated for the use of mono-crystalline wafers is relatively sustainable, due to the demand from the aggressive wafer capacity expansion of top mono-crystalline wafer makers, the aggressive capacity expansion of major Chinese suppliers is providing the sufficient supply to dive price drop. Meanwhile, as for multi-grade polysilicon that used for multi-crystalline wafer production, the price pressure continues to pile up with reduced order visibility since most buyers tend to procure conservatively amid the waning downstream demand. The pressure is particularly concentrated on those Chinese polysilicon suppliers, which are rapping up their capacity sharply, forcing them to offer lower prices. Nevertheless, major polysilicon buyers still strengthen their wait-and-see stances and fish lower price quotes as they see the risk mounting under sluggish downstream demand, leading the overall polysilicon prices to drop further this week.

Concerns of fragile recovery in China and the uncertainty over the market balance of solar wafer market result in constant price downtrend for multi-crystalline wafers. Multi-crystalline wafer prices continue to be driven down by the worsened oversupply, since major multi-crystalline wafer makers have normalized their production utilization rates since March to have the abundant market supplies stirring an inevitable price competition. Moreover, mounting inventory pressure even for the top tier multi-crystalline wafer suppliers have continued to accelerate the price drop of multi-crystalline wafer. On the other hand, although the demand of mono-crystalline wafer seemed to be more balanced, the 2nd tier Chinese mono-crystalline wafer makers strategically lower their price quotes for oversea clients as to take the advantage of higher pricing oversea market. Since China demand keep weakening in 2Q19, growing capacities and relatively expensive mono-crystalline PERC cell prices have limited mono-crystalline wafer expecting record new high market share again later this quarter, which should worsen the whole sector supply chain.

Both Multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline cell prices are plummeting amid the declining demand this week. Although all buyers have no any profit by purchasing mono-crystalline PERC cells, some major Chinese solar cell suppliers still intend to keep their prices for April. However, major solar cell buyers have stood at firmer footing, refusing to take the current high pricing mono-crystalline PERC cells. Moreover, following the notable correction of upstream wafer prices, solar cell buyers would target even lowered prices for both multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline PERC cells in April, leading the solar cell prices remain under pressure. Furthermore, due to bin-busting supplies and weak demand on high efficiency cells, some new China solar cell entrants have increasingly witnessed to dump production to markets with lower pricing. Similarly, with widen drop of upstream wafer costs and weaker-than-expected demand, multi-crystalline cell prices are heading lower this week.

A glut of solar panels in China historically has fueled supply flows over the globe, and while global imbalance has been enlarged, such supply flows continued to weigh on global market, especially as that supply of 2nd tier Chinese module makers have escalated in recent months. In China, the demand strength is proved to be weaker-than-expected that continues pushing all Chinese suppliers grow their market exposures out of China, particularly witnessed in emerging countries and EU. Moreover, solar module makers are becoming increasingly bearish on China's domestic demand in 2Q as signs of demand stress persist after the China government indicated it is less willing to support growth with generous stimulus. In India and Japan, solar panel prices remain weak, as there have been stepping into the traditional slow season in 2Q19. In addition, mono PERC module price drops mildly this week following the lower efficiency price competition and the increasing supply of 2nd tier players, even as major Chinese solar panel module makers continue to have the supply constraints of their in-house mono PERC cell manufacturing.

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XL11
11.04.2019 kl 13:09 920

Jadda, avsnitt fire gir meg en god følelse når kursmålet er 0,40 før PW innen sommerferien!