Set for a good start to 2019 For Q1

Volf
AXA 12.04.2019 kl 08:59 855

AXACTOR Set for a good start to 2019 For Q1 we forecast broadly flat net profit QOQ of EUR4.3m (results due at 07:00 CET on 26 April), as well as gross collections of EUR71m, reflecting solid underlying growth and an uptick in REO collections from the low levels in Q4, only partly offset by a seasonal downtick QOQ. We also expect seasonally low capex of EUR70m, predominantly stemming from forward flow contracts. We have made only small estimate changes, and reiterate our BUY and NOK50 target price as we find the valuation attractive at P/E 2020e of 4.3x.
We forecast Q1 net profit of EUR4.3m, driven by gross collections of EUR71m (up from EUR60m in Q4), stable collection costs QOQ at 16% of gross collections, and a ~EUR1m downtick in debt collection/3PC EBIT as a result of seasonally lower activity in Q1. We expect the collection on REOs to tick up from the level in Q4 when the Spanish real estate market had halted (due to uncertainty regarding a potential change in the payment of stamp duty), while we only forecast a small downtick in NPL collections which is usually seasonally strong in the fourth quarter We also expect seasonally low quarterly capex of around EUR70m, fuelled by forward flow contracts contributing ~EUR61m, in addition to some small acquisitions.
Norwegian FSA focus on forward flow deals unlikely to have a material impact. Earlier this week, the Norwegian FSA published additional information regarding the capital requirement for handling forward flow contracts. It said it will ensure buyers hold capital consistent with a 150% risk weight that covers the full amount the debt purchaser has committed to acquiring. While this on its own will increase Axactor’s capital requirement for specific portfolios, our understanding is that it can be addressed by redistributing capital within the group. The binding capital constraint thus remains the 30% equity ratio requirement on the debt.
BUY and NOK50 target price reiterated. We find Axactor attractively valued at a 2020e EV/EBIT of ~9.1x, combined with our expectation of strong earnings growth and a healthy revenue mix with a relatively high share of Debt Collection earnings. We have made only small estimate changes. We expect a significant bottom-line improvement through 2019–2020e, as the Expected Remaining Collections of EUR1.6bn has virtually doubled over the past year, driving higher revenues, while costs have not increased correspondingly. We also expect significantly better quarterly results YOY in 2019, on our view that the platform established in recent years will allow for higher margins from better utilisation, and economies of scale materialise due to high NPL investments
Slettet bruker
12.04.2019 kl 09:02 850

Nå starter rally,et, knallmelding på HO
Slettet bruker
12.04.2019 kl 09:06 828

22 nok er snart en saga blott....
Iniest
12.04.2019 kl 09:07 815

Etter 7min så er omsetningen 3,4mil ?