NAS - oppdaterte analyser etter q1

Tråd for posting av oppdaterte analyser etter q1-presentasjon.
DNB opprettholder BUY og TP:65Nok

Q1 with signs of significant action
We believe this was a positive report for Norwegian Air
Shuttle, including underlying figures slightly above our
expectations on adj. EBITDA with positive signs of costcutting and a significant reduction in capex and CASK
guidance, in line with our expectations, including costs
for the MAX grounding. We do not expect any significant
changes to consensus and believe a positive share
price reaction is warranted.
Q1 adj. EBITDA slightly ahead. EBITDA adj. was NOK-716m (we forecast NOK-740m)
and revenues were NOK7,992m (we forecast NOK8,299m). In terms of revenue mix,
passenger revenues were NOK6,299m (consensus: NOK6,310m), ancillary revenues
were NOK1,358m (consensus: NOK1,450m), and other revenues were NOK335m
(consensus: NOK390m). Costs excluding hedging and FX were NOK8.7bn (we forecast
NOK9bn, consensus NOK8.9bn). NOK467m of the NOK2bn cost-cutting programme
was realised in Q1. Net profit was NOK-1,489m (we forecast NOK-1,461m, consensus
NOK-1,566m). The book equity was NOK3.1bn and the cash position was NOK3.15bn.
Lowered 2019 ASK growth guidance. Norwegian Air Shuttle targets 5–10% ASK
growth for 2019 (previously 9%) and aims to limit the 737 MAX disruptions in its
scheduled traffic in the upcoming months by applying wet lease aircraft.
Hiked 2019 CASK guidance on higher fuel and MAX grounding. CASK including
depreciation and fuel was guided at NOK0.42 (previously NOK0.4075-0.4125, we
forecast NOK0.421) assuming fuel of USD655/mt (previously 613, our forecast 650) and
USDNOK of 8.27 (previously 8.18). The guidance includes up to NOK500m in negative
effects from the 737 MAX grounding. CASK including depreciation and excluding fuel is
expected to be NOK0.30 (previously NOK0.295-0.3). Due to the MAX grounding, the
company sees increased risk related to its target of positive net profit in 2019. NOK467m
in cost savings was realised in Q1 (guidance NOK400m) of the NOK2bn FY target.
2019-2020 capex guidance lowered on aircraft postponement. 2019 and 2020
CAPEX is now guided at USD1.7bn (previously USD2bn) and USD1.2bn (previously
USD2.4bn) respectively.