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FEF kom med oppdatert analyse i forrige uke, post Boa dealen. Noen utdrag :
“On our estimates SBX trades at 4x 2020 P/E and 30% FCF yield. At YE 2021 we estimate c. USD 70m net cash, close to c. USD 80m pro-forma market cap. “
“SBX has agreed with the BOA Offshore Bondholders to acquire 2008-built EM vessels Boa Thalassa and BOA Galatea for USD 22m. EMGS recently exercised an option on the former vessel extending firm period on USD 3.3m BB rate (c. 25% FCF yield) to 2q19 with options running to 1q21. We argue EMGS’ recently signed USD 29-73 multi-year proprietary contract provides comfort for work in the option period, as we believe it will command one of EMGS’s two vessels in full during the period. SBX plans to upgrade BOA Galatea to a 2D/ Source vessel for USD 8m.”
“Following the acquisition SBX will own and operate eight seismic vessels. Six vessels are owned (incl. cold-stacked Aquila Explorer) while two are available for lease. Thus, with seven available vessels SBX has the largest operated fleet (c. 20% of global active vessels) ahead of BGP and Shearwater (both with five vessels) and COSL with four. In addition to spreading onshore cost, SBX should benefit from increased vessel intensity due to larger OBS surveys with simultaneous shooting set-ups. “
“Significantly reducing fleet age increasing longevity. The acquisition of the two 2018 built vessels reduces the average age of SBX’s owned fleet by seven years. SBX now owns three vessels built after 2005 in addition to the operated vessel Voyager Explorer. An increasing numbers of source tenders carries high-spec requirements (DP2, helideck, age below 15-20 years) and the BOA vessels is amongst only five source vessels globally covering all requirements. “
“Increasing operational leverage with strong downside protection. We like the flexibility and upside potential the deal offer. In a bear case scenario with spotty utilisation (50%) and depressed day-rates and BOA Thalassa chartered to EMGS, the acquisition would still contribute to c. USD 4m in EBITDA, equivalent to c. 7x USD 30m acquisition cost and upgrade capex. In the event of a full market recovery (80% utilisation, 40k/day margins) and additional upgrade of BOA Thalassa, the two vessels will contribute to est. USD 20m EBITDA (i.e. c. 2x USD 41m acquisition and upgrade).”
“Updating our NAV based on YE 2019, we ascribe USD 25m in value on BOA Galatea following the upgrade and USD 15m on BOA Thalassa. We also increase our valuation of 3D-capable Eagle Explorer to USD 35m (NOK 25m) reflecting higher market prices as evidenced by the BOA deal, as well as signs of a revival of the niche 3D shallow water market (which c. 2/ 3x earnings power of 2D/ source).”
“On our estimates SBX trades at 4x 2020 P/E and 30% FCF yield. SBX has indicated it intends to return excess cash to shareholders, and on our estimates SBX will have available cash to both fund dividends and vessel upgrades organically. “
“On our estimates SBX trades at 4x 2020 P/E and 30% FCF yield. At YE 2021 we estimate c. USD 70m net cash, close to c. USD 80m pro-forma market cap. “
“SBX has agreed with the BOA Offshore Bondholders to acquire 2008-built EM vessels Boa Thalassa and BOA Galatea for USD 22m. EMGS recently exercised an option on the former vessel extending firm period on USD 3.3m BB rate (c. 25% FCF yield) to 2q19 with options running to 1q21. We argue EMGS’ recently signed USD 29-73 multi-year proprietary contract provides comfort for work in the option period, as we believe it will command one of EMGS’s two vessels in full during the period. SBX plans to upgrade BOA Galatea to a 2D/ Source vessel for USD 8m.”
“Following the acquisition SBX will own and operate eight seismic vessels. Six vessels are owned (incl. cold-stacked Aquila Explorer) while two are available for lease. Thus, with seven available vessels SBX has the largest operated fleet (c. 20% of global active vessels) ahead of BGP and Shearwater (both with five vessels) and COSL with four. In addition to spreading onshore cost, SBX should benefit from increased vessel intensity due to larger OBS surveys with simultaneous shooting set-ups. “
“Significantly reducing fleet age increasing longevity. The acquisition of the two 2018 built vessels reduces the average age of SBX’s owned fleet by seven years. SBX now owns three vessels built after 2005 in addition to the operated vessel Voyager Explorer. An increasing numbers of source tenders carries high-spec requirements (DP2, helideck, age below 15-20 years) and the BOA vessels is amongst only five source vessels globally covering all requirements. “
“Increasing operational leverage with strong downside protection. We like the flexibility and upside potential the deal offer. In a bear case scenario with spotty utilisation (50%) and depressed day-rates and BOA Thalassa chartered to EMGS, the acquisition would still contribute to c. USD 4m in EBITDA, equivalent to c. 7x USD 30m acquisition cost and upgrade capex. In the event of a full market recovery (80% utilisation, 40k/day margins) and additional upgrade of BOA Thalassa, the two vessels will contribute to est. USD 20m EBITDA (i.e. c. 2x USD 41m acquisition and upgrade).”
“Updating our NAV based on YE 2019, we ascribe USD 25m in value on BOA Galatea following the upgrade and USD 15m on BOA Thalassa. We also increase our valuation of 3D-capable Eagle Explorer to USD 35m (NOK 25m) reflecting higher market prices as evidenced by the BOA deal, as well as signs of a revival of the niche 3D shallow water market (which c. 2/ 3x earnings power of 2D/ source).”
“On our estimates SBX trades at 4x 2020 P/E and 30% FCF yield. SBX has indicated it intends to return excess cash to shareholders, and on our estimates SBX will have available cash to both fund dividends and vessel upgrades organically. “
Redigert 19.01.2021 kl 19:23
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Skogsmaur
06.05.2019 kl 12:08
1561
Helt greit å få kjøpt til under emisjonspris. Så får vi se om det kommer melding eller ikke. Kan jo bare håpe at det faller enda mer først.
Redigert 06.05.2019 kl 12:12
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Norbo
06.05.2019 kl 08:45
1731
Dette ble sagt ved sist runde, og den før der og den før der.99,999999% siden. Ingen som vet når de verdiene kommer til syne, mest sannsynelig ikke under navnet SBX.
Odi.1
06.05.2019 kl 08:37
1763
Det som har enorme verdier i SBX, er fremførbare Underskudd, på den måten kan det være en god oppkjøpskandidat når den er stabil for ett selskap med enormt mye penger, kan ha brukt for dette i regnskaps sammenheng...
Hvis du kan tyde den engelske skriften over forstår du nok at det er rom for mye utbytte her fremover.
Når de begynner å betale utbytter våkner nok massene.
Skogsmaur
30.04.2019 kl 16:30
2650
Klarer ikke helt se at det er mange som tjener på å selge på dette nivået. Eneste forklaring jeg ser, er investorene som deltok i emisjonen som lemper ut aksjer for lavere eksponering.
Lilleulv
30.04.2019 kl 14:14
2791
Takker for deling :)
Ikke skjønner jeg hvem som lar shortere få dekke noe av sin posisjon på disse nivåer. La dem gå på en smell! Nok er nok :)
Ikke skjønner jeg hvem som lar shortere få dekke noe av sin posisjon på disse nivåer. La dem gå på en smell! Nok er nok :)