AVANCE Q1

Null
15.05.2019 kl 08:19 1487

Avance Gas Holding Ltd: Avance Gas Holding Ltd Reports Unaudited Results for the First Quarter of 2019

08:00
BERMUDA, 15 May 2019- Avance Gas Holding Ltd (OSE: AVANCE) today reported unaudited results for the first quarter 2019.
Rates rebound with higher US activity - Marcus Hook volumes come on stream

* The average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate for the fleet was
$11,133/day, compared to $12,637/day in Q1 2018 and $21,314/day in Q4 2018.

* Daily operating expenses (OPEX) were $7,952/day, down from $8,183/day in Q4
2018.
* A&G expenses were $1.1 million or $907/day, down from $995/day in Q4 2018.
* Avance Gas available liquidity at quarter end was $65.2 million, following
drawdown of revolving credit facilities of $25 million during the quarter.
The cash position at the date of this release is approx. $67.3 million.

Key events after quarter end:

* Received commitments for a $515 million credit facility, enabling full
refinancing the companys outstanding debt, evidencing the strong support
from the shipping banks, maintaining attractive cash break even of
$22,500/day.
* 66% of total Q2 2019 ship days have been fixed at a rate approx.
$26,000/day.
* Agreed with the Wartsila group to acquire two exhaust gas cleaning systems,
with the option for further six units. The estimated total project cost is
$2.9 million per unit.
* Mr. Ulrik Andersen appointed new CEO of Avance Gas, starting in August
2019.

We normally see lower trading activity in the first quarter as colder weather
increases domestic demand in exporting regions, impacting product prices and
trading activity. Further, Middle East normally performs maintenance on
exporting facilities, reducing export volumes.

Middle East LPG exports in Q1 2019 were 7.7 million tons, down 1.6 million
tons from Q4 2018. Compared to three year average exports for Q1, volumes are
down by 1.2 million tons. Exports volumes vary between the main export
terminals but compared to three year averages, 2019 volumes generally
indicate lower Saudi Arabian and UAE exports, while Qatar have maintained
higher volumes on a relative basis. Iran exported 1.1 million tons in Q4
2019, in line with 2018 average. Average monthly cargoes exported was 59,
down from 62 in Q1 2018 and down from an average of 64 cargoes per month in
2018.

US Gulf and USEC VLGC exports were 6.9 million tons in Q1 2019, slightly down
from 7.1 million tons in Q4 2018 but up from 6.2 million in Q1 2018. As for
2018, the Q1 US exports were impacted by a period of cold temperatures in
February, resulting in higher domestic consumption and increasing LPG prices.
In March, operational problems caused lower than expected exports and delays,
at the same time causing freight rates to improve due to lack of available
tonnage.

After recording 55 cargoes in January, US Gulf and USEC VLGC exports fell to
37 cargoes in February. March volumes rebounded to 56 cargoes, of which 7
cargoes were lifted from Marcus Hook terminal, as the Mariner East II
pipeline commenced operations. The average of 50 cargoes in Q1 2019 compares
to 46 cargoes in Q1 2018 and 50 cargoes per month in 2018.

Per year end 2018 the global fleet totaled approx. 265 ships with an orderbook
totaling 38 ships (14%). During the quarter, three ships have been delivered,
leaving 15 ships due for delivery for the balance of the year. Three new
orders have been placed, bringing the global fleet and orderbook to 268 and
38 ships respectively at quarter end. As we move closer to implementation of
the IMO 2020 emission rules in January 2020, we expect to see further ships
removed from active trade. This may be further emphasized as US sanctions on
Iranian trade are intensified.

The full report and interim financial statements are attached to this press
release.
Null
15.05.2019 kl 08:29 1441

Dette ser trygt og godt ut
Kan nok vente en oppgang i dag og utover mai

Null

66% av flåten bundet til rater på $26'. Med b/e på $22,5' er det ikke akkurat svimlende summer man sitter igjen med for disse fartøyene.
Boheman
15.05.2019 kl 10:55 1236

På mange måter et positivt budskap i Q1-rapporten, men et forhold er veldig skuffende, etter min formening. Da konkurrenter som BWLPG seilte på fastpris og unngikk de laveste ratene, seilte Avance konsekvent i spot-markedet, med elendige resultater som resultat, jf. kursutviklingen. Nå, når "alle" forsto at ratene ville stige betraktelig, og mulighetene for gode inntekter var nærmest garantert, da valgte Avance å inngå fraktkontrakter som sikret positive tall, men helt marginalt. Dermed er 66 % av flåten avskåret fra dagens gode rater. Altså, Avance har gått motstrøms, med betydelige inntektsreduseringer (tap) som resultat. Virker meningsløst! Kan dette være en av årsakene til at CEO måtte fratre?
Gnesdam
15.05.2019 kl 11:17 1204

Det lyder som et godt bud. Men nu er det jo nemt at være bagklog ift raterne. De binder.sig sandsynligvis ikke i 3 kvartal, hvor der til gengæld kommer flere skibe.

Men hvis den resterende 34% av flåten seiler på spotrater til $40.000/dag så blir snittet $31.000/dag for hele flåten i Q2. Det blir nå litt cash av det.

Enig i at det ikke ser ut som et lønnsomt valg å binde ratene så tidlig i en oppgangssyklus, det er og veldig ulikt Avance. Jeg tenker at grunnen kan være at det henger sammen med refiniansiering av utesående lån. 'Banken' ville nok sikre seg mot tap, og har satt som betingelse at en del av ratene ble låst for dermed å redusere nedsiden, og mulig tap på utlån. Det positive med dette er at de som har snakket om emisjon ikke har så mange argumenter igjen.

66% of shipdays!Noen her mener at 66% av flåten er på fastpris til en snittpris på 26.000$?66%av 14 skip er 9.24 skip.Det stemmer ikke.Det de mener er at 66% av Q2(April,Mai og Juni)har gitt en snittpris på 26.000$
parson
15.05.2019 kl 15:31 930

Ratene var jo ganske lave i 1 kvartal, og stigende i 2 kvartal.
Når man leier ut slike skip så blir dem vel leid ut en stund på forhånd tenker jeg. Slik at oppsvingene i ratene først kommer om en stund.
så 3 kvartal vil vel bli bra det også.
I tillegg så er det et etterslep på ratene da en reise f.eks fra Usa til Østen og retur vil ta en god stund.

Bedre enn ventet Q1, svakere enn ventet Q2, og er enig trolig derfor CEO måtte gå. Latterlig av han å binde prisene så lavt.
Men 34 % har normale spotrater da. Trolig over 30 000 dollar i snitt i Q2. Så den kommer. Q3 blir meget kjekt så ikkeno å ta på vei for.
Redigert 15.05.2019 kl 15:39 Du må logge inn for å svare

With current VLGC spot rates of USD40k/day, returning to normalized debt repayment should be little surprise to the market, but full refinancing without changing the cash break-even should be a positive relief to the stock. On 9 April we raised our target in Avance to NOK32 (up from NOK20) as we no longer expected the company to raise equity.
Refinancing in focus. Q1 results below consensus and guidance of a 22% underperformance on the Baltic in the current quarter is negative in our view, but this is likely to be overshadowed by positive news on refinancing. We see the stock up 3% in a flat market today.
Boheman
15.05.2019 kl 17:09 795

Hvilket meglerhus har levert den analysen / anbefalingen?

66%av 14 skip blir 9.24 skip..det er ikke slik at 66% av skipene har fastpris.Det de sier er at 66% av Q2 har en snittpris på 26.000$.Vil bli bedre de neste 34%,noe som trekker snittprsen opp.Alle skipene går på spot markedet