GIG - Carnegie ser styrket oppside etter q4!
Carnegie er ute med sin Q4 vurdering og de er godt fornøyd. De ser på kursmålet på 8 kr som styrket:
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Carnegie
Gaming Innovation Group (Buy): Odds in your favour – Q4 review
GIG delivered a solid Q4 and the 2018 outlook is strong due to: 1) >70% Y/Y growth in the Affiliate division plus a strong acquisition pipeline; 2) a strong backlog for the casino platform suite with a US launch of Hard Rock casino and; 3) a very strong start for the new casino site highroller.com. As such, we stick to BUY and are more confident in our NOK8 target price based on a mark-to-market SOTP with peers.
In Q4, GIG delivered strong results for its Platform and Marketing division, which is >70% of the value, albeit helped by a EUR2m one-off. It delivered 17% better underlying EBITDA. This was offset by Casino Operators, which underperformed on revenue, but this is less important as we believe it is used to scale the platform and comprises <30% of the value. Overall, underlying EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations at EUR6.5m.
On the back of a stronger than expected performance among platform clients and a good pipeline, we have raised our underlying estimates by ~3%. However, headline EPS(18–19e) is down 10–17%, but this is due to higher amortisation on marketing business acquisitions only and is thus irrelevant for cash flow.
Over the next three years, we believe GIG can grow revenue by ~30% and EBITDA by >80% on average. This will be driven by scale for its platform business and a lower relative marketing spend for Casino Operators. There is also upside potential from M&A in affiliate marketing and from potentially divesting its casino business over the next 2–3 years. Other triggers may be further consolidation (i.e. with Catena Media) and a Swedish listing.
Our target price is based on a mark-to-market SOTP where we value each part of GIG on par with listed peers (Platform Supplier, Marketer, Casino Operator). Currently it trades at a ~35% discount to the fair value, which we find unwarranted."
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Carnegie
Gaming Innovation Group (Buy): Odds in your favour – Q4 review
GIG delivered a solid Q4 and the 2018 outlook is strong due to: 1) >70% Y/Y growth in the Affiliate division plus a strong acquisition pipeline; 2) a strong backlog for the casino platform suite with a US launch of Hard Rock casino and; 3) a very strong start for the new casino site highroller.com. As such, we stick to BUY and are more confident in our NOK8 target price based on a mark-to-market SOTP with peers.
In Q4, GIG delivered strong results for its Platform and Marketing division, which is >70% of the value, albeit helped by a EUR2m one-off. It delivered 17% better underlying EBITDA. This was offset by Casino Operators, which underperformed on revenue, but this is less important as we believe it is used to scale the platform and comprises <30% of the value. Overall, underlying EBITDA was in line with consensus expectations at EUR6.5m.
On the back of a stronger than expected performance among platform clients and a good pipeline, we have raised our underlying estimates by ~3%. However, headline EPS(18–19e) is down 10–17%, but this is due to higher amortisation on marketing business acquisitions only and is thus irrelevant for cash flow.
Over the next three years, we believe GIG can grow revenue by ~30% and EBITDA by >80% on average. This will be driven by scale for its platform business and a lower relative marketing spend for Casino Operators. There is also upside potential from M&A in affiliate marketing and from potentially divesting its casino business over the next 2–3 years. Other triggers may be further consolidation (i.e. with Catena Media) and a Swedish listing.
Our target price is based on a mark-to-market SOTP where we value each part of GIG on par with listed peers (Platform Supplier, Marketer, Casino Operator). Currently it trades at a ~35% discount to the fair value, which we find unwarranted."
anderix
14.02.2018 kl 09:57
2102
Ser ut som det blir en stund til vi ser 8kr, men den kommer før eller siden. Bare å legge aksjen i skuffen og la den godgjøre seg så lenge;-)
Orakel O
14.02.2018 kl 11:00
2057
Ang dagens meldte salg: Jeg har snakket med Hans Michael. Han har ligget rett over 5% i lengre tid, noen som forårsaker praktiske ulemper. Min tolkning er at dette gjelder alle DD som blir gjort med fks USA lisenser og lignende, der man har nesten en hel dags jobb som aksjonær på den størrelsen. Aksjene ble solgt til en annen stor aksjonær utenfor børs, og dette ble ikke gjort for å selge videre slik jeg tolket han.