Hehe. Det stemmer meget bra kbkristi og takk for at du svarte på det jeg trodde var et retorisk spørsmål ;)

Siden vi er i godt selskap her og vi er alle interessert i bulk, så ber jeg herrene se på muligheter innen copper. Les litt om markedet, selskaper og forventninger fremover. Ja, prisene har gått opp, men i min mening er at det er mye som fortsatt er underpriset. Også må dere ta med dere "Golden tålmodigheten".

Se flåtelisten på hjemmesiden.

Da kom rateskiftet også ( opp 2 dager på rad nå, kraftig i dag!)
.......
Baltic index posts biggest one-day percentage jump in 4 weeks

Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index rose nearly 3 percent on Tuesday, marking its biggest one-day percentage gain in about a month, helped by stronger rates across vessel segments. * The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize shipping vessels, was up 30 points, or 2.76 percent, at 1,117 points. * This was the biggest daily percentage gain for the index since Jan. 24. * The capesize index rose for the first time in six sessions, gaining 81 points, or 5.07 percent, to 1,678 points. * Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, rose $679 to $12,941. * The panamax index was up 39 points, or 3.01 percent, at 1,333 points. * Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased $316 to $10,698. * Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose seven points to 847 points, while the handysize index rose two points to 519 points. (Reporting by Vijaykumar Vedala in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta) ((vijaykumar.vedala@thomsonreuters.com; +91-80-6749-6421 / 1298)(If within U.S. call 651-848-5832)(; Reuters Messaging: vijaykumar.vedala.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: BALTIC INDEX/

Ser faktisk ut som den kan bryte opp av kileformasjonen allerede i dag på årets nest høyeste volum! :-)

Ja, regner med den går videre nå når USA åpner.

Capesize 46, Panamax/Kamsarmax 29, Supramax 3

Brukte tid på å høre på Birgitte (Vartdal) i dag. Det går nordover!!!

Er det aksjebeholdingen ved årsskifte som gir grunnlaget for utbytte?

Rent TA-messig ser vi vel akkurat nå en såkalt akselleratorformasjon under dannelse. Formodentlig vil aksjen «stalle» (som et fly gjør når det stiger for raskt) og falle noe tilbake. Aksjen kan meget vel stige en dag eller to til, men så er det vel bare å feste setebeltene (for den langsiktige) og forberede seg på et fall i kursen. Den synske kan jo forsøke seg med en short ….?

Men, ærlig talt folkens. Etter dagens presentasjon, utbyttenyheter og mest sannsynlig utvikling; Det er ikke vanskelig å regne hjem GOGL-kurser på godt over hundre kroner i løpet av de kommende tolv månedene?

http://www.dividend.com/ex-dividend-dates.php

Les og lær - det finnes mye info på nettet.

Når utbyttet bestemmes av styret settes også record date i kvartalsrapporten. Dvs den datoen du må eie aksjen for å få utbytte. For å få utbytte på $0.1 for Q4 i GOGL må du eie aksjen 1. mars 2018. Utbetaling skjer 22. mars.

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

«In drybulk, things are firming up both in the Atlantic and the Pacific and overall cape-index up 5.5% with FFAs also moving. Panamax rates are also on the rise; South American grain cargoes continue to be supportive.»

Hvis vi skal holde oss i fly-sjargongen, så er det vel riktig å si; "Fest setebeltene!!"
Vi skal langt opp nå :-)

Mvh

Da var jeg gogl eier igjen :)

FFA 5TC på $23.375 for Q4 2018 (og $19.600 for Q3). Gull :-)

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/capepmxreport200218.pdf

Gogl opp 6.46% i US i går og pre-trade opp 1.6% nå, hvorfor er gogl så treg på ose??

GOGL leverte varene ja. Meget bra Q4 resultat. Og til og med utbytte på $ 0,1
Jeg kjøpte meg opp i GOGL for ca 3 mnd siden, men fordi jeg trengte noen penger for å kjøpe meg inn i OCY måtte jeg selge

GOGL leverte varene ja. Meget bra Q4 resultat. Og til og med utbytte på $ 0,1
Jeg kjøpte meg opp i GOGL for ca 3 mnd siden, men fordi jeg trengte noen penger for å kjøpe meg inn i OCY måtte jeg selge ut noen aksjer.
Men nok om meg denne gangen forrige gang BDI faktisk var på 10-11000 hadde jeg aksjer for halvannen million kr, og den gangen fikk jeg ut/etalt over 100.000.- hvert kvartal... Bare så synd at markedet stupte og inntektene forsvant!!!
Men har alltid sittet med aksjer i Golden Ocean bare sa det er klart.
Så nå håper jeg på at dere får rett i spådommene om økning i kursen og utbyttene framover.

Jeg har vært inn og ut fra 35 kr og har hatt en eventyrlig avkastning men nå gikk jeg inn igjen fordi jeg har stor tro på tørrlast de neste månedene. Har også Songa Bulk som legger frem q4 28.02.

Det vil ta tid å bygge markedet i hel og du må bare sørge for a ta gevinst i god tid, helst før saueflokken :) Q2/Q3 vil løfte gogl godt over 120 tror jeg.

Et lite tilbakeblikk...
For de som "husker" FFA i februar 2017 så viste den Q4 2017 $14.750/Day (fasit ble $23.000/day).

FFA: Capes pushed early with Mar trading up to 17300 but index comes in less than expected and few sellers at last done across the curve PMX and SMX both very strong with good buying throughout curve on above average volume

hva tror vi om bdi´n som kommer snart?

BDI uten cape rater er ikke så interessant, men det endrer seg fra 1. mars. Ratene for cape er derimot opp 0,8% i dag.

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 1,8 prosent til 1.167 poeng, ifølge Bloomberg News torsdag.



Baltic Dry +1,8%

Panamax +3,6%

Handysize +1,4%

Supramax +2,0%

Panamax ratene feier videre opp idag, og vi har fått en nydelig dobbel bunn i BDI chartet :-)

Skummelt nå dersom Trump pålegger toll på import av stål og aluminium. Da stuper vel ratene under all time low.

hehe...er du short nå? :)

SBLK opp 3.3% i US, lite bulk rally?

La oss se litt på fakta:
Sjefen sjelv, Birgitte Vardal, svarer med et skuldertrekk når hun får spørsmålet om tollforslaget under presentasjonen her om dagen.
"Since we are not very active in the Supra segment which is typical where the export is, nothing we have noticed as such on the sanctions part"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4148385-golden-oceans-gogl-ceo-birgitte-vartdal-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=7

Når det gjelder eksport av stål fra Kina til USA utgjorde USA bare 0.8% (på 25. plass) av den totale ståleksporten i 2016
https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/2016/annual/exports-china.pdf

Summary

GOGL is forming a tight consolidation pattern well off of its record levels.

The company is improving its operations from a distressed environment.

I am buying stock in anticipation of strong growth in coming years.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Absolute Returns.

Golden Ocean Group (GOGL) is trading at depressed valuations after the collapse of both the global economy and thus the dry bulk shipping industry. As the company returns to profitability and grows revenue, however, its share price could be headed higher. Its share price currently trades well below its early 2000 peaks but is forming a strong base formation, with investor optimism growing. I am buying stock at these levels, with the expectation of potentially significant growth in coming years.

Price Action

The combination of improving fundamentals and distressed trading levels make GOGL an interesting buy at current levels. Its share price is roughly 96% below its peak level, with years of decline due to a weakening global economy. On its shorter-term charts, however, there looks to be building investor confidence.

Its share price is consolidating between roughly $5 and $10, with the range of trading becoming more narrow. This signals that declining volatility could give way to a spike in volatility due to some catalyst in the future. With its fundamentals improving from depressed levels, this stock looks like an interesting turnaround story, with a lot of upside potential. I am setting a stop-loss point at the $8.5 level, for if it falls down back into the range, investors may be signaling that there is not enough momentum yet to drive this stock higher.
Fundamental Narrative

The dry bulk shipping company reported strong Q4 earnings, easily beating projections with a 95% Y/Y revenue increase. The company was bullish on its outlook due to the expectation of shipping day rates improving further as the world economy expands, and lower fleet growth over the next year, according to management.

The downturn of the global economy in 2007 had disastrous effects on global trade. With many foreign economies left in such bad shape, they cut interest rates to zero or negative rates in order to spur activity. The recovery took many years, but we are now beginning to see economic activity pick up through PMI indicators, as well as an increase in commodity prices.

Similarly, the price of oil looks to have formed a bottom after years of decline. This is all benefiting GOGL, which has weathered the storm and is now seeing an increase in fundamental strength.

In its recent quarter, GOGL posted quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $65M vs. expectations for $57M and up from $24M at the same time a year ago. The company officially returned to profitability during the third quarter of 2017 and continues to pick up momentum. Management claims that they were able to capitalize on improving market conditions due to the size, composition and modernity of its fleet.

A key however, is to remain focused on maintaining competitive cash breakeven levels and a healthy balance sheet to provide GOGL the flexibility to return value to its shareholders through cash flow, continuing to evaluate accretive growth opportunities. Flexibility allowed it to avoid breaking up its operations during recent tough market environments, and should similarly allow it to take advantage of new opportunities going forward.

In recent weeks, the tanker market as a whole received upgrades by analysts. Morgan Stanley told investors to expect the tanker market to recover in coming years due to upcoming increases in OPEC production, rising U.S. exports, and contango trade in oil, which should lead to more trading activity. Specifically, the analyst upgraded GOGL on its attractive valuation.

Below is a chart of both GOGL's revenue and earnings per share. Over the last few years, the company's revenue has increases significantly, while its earnings per share remain relatively weak. Revenue went from almost completely drying up between 2010 and 2015, to now roughly $400 million annually.

Additionally, the company still operates at a loss per share, but with stronger revenue and improving efficiencies, it should return to profitability in coming years. With the company trading roughly 96% below record levels, and its revenue beginning to increase significantly, its investors could begin to bid its shares up quickly, signaling that this may be an attractive time to accumulate GOGL equity.
Conclusion

GOGL is trading at depressed valuations after the collapse of both the global economy and thus the dry bulk shipping industry. As the company returns to profitability, and grows revenue however, its share price could be headed higher. Its share price currently trades well below its early 2000 peaks, but is forming a strong base formation with investor optimism growing. I am buying stock at these levels, with the expectation of potentially significant growth in coming years.

Dry Bulk Market: Iron Ore Import Licenses Witness Huge Jump
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 23/02/2018

The Chinese government last month issued iron ore import licenses for 202 million tons. While the monthly licenses never equal the amount of iron ore that is actually imported in any given month, the 202 million ton level is very noteworthy as it is simply a huge amount. In comparison, the most recent peak in licenses seen last year was for a total of 140.8 million tons issued in September (actual imports that month came out to 102.8 million tons, which is the current record).

Overall, all signs are that Chinese iron ore imports will continue to set records this year. We continue to stress that robust and even record iron ore port stockpiles levels do not limit China’s iron ore import volumes. This has been our long-held view since 2014, and it is a view that continues to be proven. Going forward, it remains our view that the usage of domestic iron ore (which is of much lower quality than iron ore imports) will continue to be phased out. As we also examined in our reports last year, last year’s decision by the government to cancel a third of domestic iron ore mining rights strengthened our conviction even further.

Source: Jeffrey Landsberg, Managing Director, Commodore Research & Consultancy

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-iron-ore-import-licenses-witness-huge-jump/

Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Looking For Balance
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 23/02/2018

Capesize FFA Commentary:
Cape paper saw an early push which seemed to be fuelled on rumours of bigger physical fixtures that failed to materialise. C5 did print 7.10 & 7.15 which was later reflected in the index but the Atlantic posted small losses causing most periods on the curve to retrace in a quiet afternoon session. Whether the premium FFAs hold over spot can last much longer on remains to be seen.

Panamax FFA Commentary:
Another busy day on panamax with buyers once again returning to the market. Prompt periods hit new highs with march trading upto $13400 and q2 printing $14250 whilst deferred saw renewed interest as cal19 reached $12500. With index still seeing solid gains buyers were still present in the afternoon but we ran into some selling interest on the close as we came off the days highs

Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax paper once again witnessed the positive momentum seen of late with rates pushing throughout the day. March reached a new high of $12,100 and the Q2 was paid $13000. Index which was slightly better than expected $168 10TC and $198 derived 6tc, leading to another supported afternoon with limited offers down the curve.

Handysize FFA Commentary:
Quiet day on handysize paper with very little to report.

Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-market-looking-for-balance/

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN +1,5% TIL 1.185 POENG

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 1,5 prosent til 1.185 poeng, ifølge Bloomberg News fredag.

Baltic Dry +1,5% Panamax +3,0% Handysize +0,8% Supramax +2,2%

Baltic Dry-indeksen angis i poeng. Resterende segmenter er snittrater i dollar.

SB1M er ute med en oppdatering på bulk markedet. De sier blant annet følgende:

"Spot rates:
- Capesizerates up 16% w/w to USD 12 889/day. Following seasonal trend
- Panamax rates are up 15% to USD 12 993/day.Strong rate performance in seasonal weak period.
»Seasonal effects in 1stquarter affecting spot rates
- Australia: Cyclones dampening iron ore output
- Brazil: Rain season -> scheduled maintenance + rain halting mining and cargo loading
- China: Chinese New Year, reducing activity, less demand (started Feb 16th, lasts 14 days)
- Supply: Q1 is peak delivery period (less effect due to low supply-side growth?)
- Some iron ore stock building in Chinese ports

Time-charter rates:
- Capsize up 4% for 1yrto USD 20 375/day (highest reading since 3Q 2014), and 3 yrflat at USD 17 375/day.
- Panamax 1 yrTC rate up 8% to USD 13 625/day and and 3 yris up 3% to USD 12 875/day
- FFA: 2018 contracts are firming

New build values: stable (in an upward trend)

2ndhand values stay firm:
»Firm asset values. Panamax value for re-sale is up 3% to USD 30m

Analysts
Jan-Tore Christiansen"

Capesize Market Rises Strongly with Rates Reaching Close to $16,000s
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 26/02/2018

Capesize
The market showed signs of recovery even before the Chinese return to work, with a push on the West Australia/China run. All the major Australian shippers came into the market and rates broke US$7.00 for 7-10 March cargoes, so far peaking at US$7.40 for 15 March onwards. Delays were building in Chinese ports not helped by dense fog over Bohai Bay, closing some ports at the week closed out. Sentiment remained positive as the week closed out with ongoing period interest supporting the market. Timecharter rates improved, with Panocean booking a 19-year old 172,000-dwt from Beilun for a Richards Bay/South Korea trip at US$15,800 daily. However, the Brazil to China trade remained muted and although some rate gains were seen, the market remained in a stand-off. Rates hovered around the mid-high US$16.00s but brokers suggested the market needed increased activity from Brazil. Further north saw very limited activity both transatlantic and fronthaul. Rates from Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam were barely holding around US$8.00 and timecharter rates estimated around US$11,000 daily.

Panamax
The market came to life mid-week after the Chinese festivities particularly from east coast South America where activity there was driving the market and helping to support a slower trading in the east. This combined with good period activity led to a bullish close to the week with sentiment positive going forward. A newbuild Oshima kamsarmax fixed ex-yard at a very strong US$16,000 for one-year delivery mid-March.

There was a good volume of fixing from east coast South America with the pressure now for April with rather than March with rates rising for both aps and dop delivery with ships now fixing in the upper US$15,000s daily and upper US$500,000s bonus for the run east – up from the low US$14,000s + low US$400,000s BB a week ago. A well described JMU kamsarmax fixed delivery Kohsichang mid-March via east coast South America back to the east at an improved US$15,500 daily. The Pacific market was understandably more subdued but there was a steady flow of NoPac and Indonesia cargoes but so far owners eyed the stronger rates from east coast South America and healthy period interest rather than fixing short rounds in the east. Within the Atlantic, owners raised their ideas considerably curbing trading, apart from those charterers willing to chase the offers. Cargoes predominantly were for the shorter mineral trades from the north Continent to the Baltic.

Supramax
A subdued start to the week with the Chinese New Year celebrations in full flow but as the week closed rates across all routes made positive gains. Period activity was seen with charterers looking for cover in both basins. A 63,000-dwt was reported fixed delivery Portbury for four to six months trading redelivery Atlantic at US$14,000 daily.

Atlantic activity centred on the US Gulf this week with rates there remaining firm. A 61,000-dwt was fixed for a trip from Vera Cruz to the Arabian Gulf at US$24,500 and a 63,300-dwt was reported fixed for a trip from north coast South America to south Brazil at US$17,000. A 63,400 open Santos was booked around the mid-low US$15,000s for a transatlantic run. Rates also improved from the east Mediterranean, with a Supramax fixed for a fronthaul in excess of US$18,000. From the Continent, rates also improved as a 63,500-dwt was rumoured fixed delivery Norway for a trip via the Continent to east Mediterranean with scrap at US$17,000.

In Asia rates too firmed with a 57,000-dwt reported booked with clinker basis delivery Fangcheng for a trip via Vietnam to Bangladesh at US$14,500. More activity was seen as the week drew to a close for NoPac rounds but no definite fixtures surfaced. From the Indian Ocean, a 64,000 was on subjects delivery Durban for a trip Pakistan in the mid US$12,000s and US$250,000 ballast bonus.

Handysize
The handy sector started its recovery mid-week with the return to work in the Pacific after the Chinese New Year celebration. Brokers reported more cargoes for March dates appearing in the Atlantic and the tonnage list tightened in the east for the large-sized handy vessels.

Whilst the Atlantic routes showed positive gains, the east coast South America market was said to be rather flat while the US Gulf market improved at a faster pace. A Tess 45,000-dwt type open Paranagua was reportedly fixed basis Vitoria delivery for a trip with pig iron to the US east coast at approximately US$11,000 daily. A coal trip paid US$18,000 daily on a 43,000-dwt open Mersin at the end of the month to run via the Black Sea to India. In the Pacific, there was talk of a 37,000-dwt fixing for a NoPac Round voyage at a rate in the mid US$9,000s basis delivery in the Far East, and two 32,000-dwt vessels were reported to have fixed at US$8,000 daily for trips from the Far East to Southeast Asia.

Source: Baltic Briefing

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-market-rises-strongly-with-rates-reaching-close-to-16000s/

kan jo tyde på at vi får en fin GOGL uke.

Aksjen er overkjøpt så det holder, men det fundamentale ser positivt ut. På kort sikt spørs det hvem som vinner. På lengre sikt vinner nok GOGL!