WRL - Seineste analyse - Peel Hunt

Slettet bruker
WRL 10.11.2017 kl 21:37 36428

London-baserte Peel Hunt (peelhunt.com) tok opp dekning av WRL den 18 okt. og skriver mye positivt i sin 29-siders analyse. La oss plukke ut essensen. Kanskje blir den med det litt lettere å forstå?

Powering up a nation
By providing long-term visibility on both production and cash flow growth, Wentworth is differentiated versus its peers. Over the next 18 months, the Mnazi Bay gas field in Tanzania will enable rapid deleveraging of the balance sheet and will add support to the equity. In addition to the core producing asset, significant exploration/appraisal upside exists in both Tanzania and Mozambique that could add substantial new resource and provide further NAV upside.

Since Mnazi Bay was brought online in Q315, production has increased to c50MMcf/d (>60MMcf/d currently, FY17 guidance 45-50MMcf/d) and in the short-term the aim is to increase this further towards 70-80MMcf/d in 2018. Beyond this it is expected that continued demand growth for gas-fired power generation will see production continue to rise, enabling Mnazi Bay to deliver PHe 110MMcf/d gross production in 2019. It is worth highlighting that geologically, Mnazi Bay’s gas reservoirs are capable of delivering these volumes from the existing well stock. This is an important point as it means no more significant capex is required in order for Wentworth to double production from current levels.

In addition to Mnazi Bay, Wentworth also holds an 85% operated interest in the onshore Rovuma concession, Mozambique, which contains the potentially material Tembo oil and gas discovery (20p/sh risked). Efforts are currently focused on securing a farm-in partner in the months ahead to help fund the drilling of a high-impact appraisal well in 2018. In our view, a successful outcome that proves Wentworth’s geological model could add incremental NAV in excess of the current market capitalisation.

Investment case
Wentworth Resources is an exploration and production company currently focused on producing PHe c16MMboe of remaining entitlement natural gas reserves from its Mnazi Bay field in Tanzania. In addition, efforts are also focused on working towards the likely 2018 appraisal of a potentially significant gas and liquids discovery in the onshore Rovuma Basin, Mozambique.

With a long-term gas sales contract in place, all of the major capex items now behind it and with the field likely to be in commercial production for the remainder of the licence term which expires in 2031, Mnazi Bay is the asset that currently defines the company and differentiates it versus peers.

Once Mnazi Bay is at plateau production, our modelling of the current 2P reserves base shows the field will generate free cash flow of >$20m/pa out to 2022. Beyond this it is our expectation that additional prospective resources will be discovered and tied-in, thereby extending plateau production beyond the 2P profile shown below.

Strategy
Wentworth aims to be a low-cost developer and producer of gas in Tanzania by delivering gas into existing infrastructure for sale downstream to industrial and power off-takers. Importantly, with significant spare capacity in the trans-national gas pipeline, Wentworth is ideally positioned to feed growing regional and national gas-fired power demand.
In addition to a stable production base, Wentworth will also look to add value via its prospective exploration and appraisal assets also located in the Rovuma Basin in southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Receivables repayment to bolster cash flows
As a result of past development and operating costs at Mnazi Bay paid for by Wentworth on behalf of TPDC, a $35m long-term receivable had been accrued. By December 2016 this had been reduced to $27.1m and to $23.7m by end June 2017. We estimate that between 2017-19 Wentworth will benefit from a disproportionate share of production cash flows in excess of its PSC entitlement to eliminate the TPDC receivable and accelerate the pace of deleveraging.

A key point to highlight here is that due to the way in which the receivable is recovered, there is in our view a low risk of none recovery. More precisely, we understand that Wentworth’s Mnazi Bay operating partner, Maurel et Prom, gets paid directly from the buyers of the gas for 100% of the gas sold from the Mnazi Bay JV; Wentworth is then paid by Maurel et Prom its PSC entitlement revenue.

Maurel et Prom and Wentworth receive TPDC’s PSC entitlement revenue, which is split roughly 80/20 in favour of Wentworth until the receivable is eliminated. The impact on Wentworth’s cash flows is therefore disproportionately positive in the early years of Mnazi Bay production. Based on current and forecast production levels, our expectation is that the receivable will be eliminated entirely by end 2019.

WRL er definitivt "Den lekreste dama i gata" og hun blir bedre og bedre for hver dag.

:-)

Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:40 Du må logge inn for å svare
PerPutt
21.11.2017 kl 11:49 18861

Vi kan da se frem til en økning på 48 mmscf/d mot Juli 2018.. Er jo berre lækkert.
Slettet bruker
21.11.2017 kl 11:39 18829

Det nærmer seg, i et viktig prosjekt for WRL. :)

Construction project Kinyerezi II reaches 84 percent.

"About Kinyerezi II project implemented by SUMITOMO from subcontractors in Japan, Mr Manda said that the expectation is to start producing Electric in early December this year where 30 megawatts will begin incorporated into the National Grid. In addition, he said that the expectation is that plants add 30 megawatts to the grid each month to 240 megawatts is completed in July, 2018."

"Regarding the implementation of the Kinyerezi I-Extension project (MW 185), he said that its implementation has reached 48 percent and that the construction of all the basics of its machinery and equipment has been completed."

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://dewjiblog.co.tz/ujenzi-mradi-wa-kinyerezi-ii-wafikia-asilimia-84/

Etterspørselen vil som kjent øke med ca. 6 mmscf/d pr. 30 MW turbin.
JahMason
21.11.2017 kl 09:01 19055

Vel sagt MacB.
Ingen tvil om at Malcy kjenner markedet og selskaper bedre enn de fleste. Uvanlig positiv mot WRL siste tiden og det er veldig hyggelig. Nå nærmer det seg desember og ting har aldri sett bedre ut for Wentworth R. Fortsatt noen uker igjen av 2017 og jeg tror vi avslutter året nærmere 4kr enn 2kr. Så får vi se hvor høyt vi kommer i 2018. Jeg har fortsatt en drøm om rundt 17kr
MacB
21.11.2017 kl 08:49 19096

Det er ikke viktig om han vet mer enn oss her på HO, men at han vet mer en de fleste som lytter til ham.
plaff
21.11.2017 kl 08:35 19125

Det er vanskelig å si hvor informert Malcy er. Han har en løpende dialog med toppen men jeg tviler på han vet så alvorlig mye mer enn oss.
mikkelschmidt
20.11.2017 kl 19:48 19340

Malcy snakker lidt om WRL, en ting jeg bemærkede mellem linjerne var at han snakker om Tembo appraisal og farm-out partner som en "sure thing".

"Last week I effectively pressed the button" i.e. bucket list, ikke at det for mig betyder hverken fra eller til.

Starter fra 28 min.

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/toople-toop-boku-boku-malcy-on-savp-sdx-ppc-wrl-pmo-zen-and-connor-campbell-on-eto-tcg-mtc/
Redigert 20.11.2017 kl 19:50 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
20.11.2017 kl 15:06 19627

Ting ser veldig bra ut for WRL. Jeg sitter fullastet og mer til, og venter på farm-out, Kinyerezi II og Dangote.

Om de forskjellige analytikernes kursmål så varierer de fra kr. 3,- til kr. 6.50 så blir det litt useriøst. Fra UK-baserte analyser har vi følgende ferske tall:

- Peel Hunt: kr. 4.40
- FinnCap: kr. 6,-
- Hardman: kr. 6.50

Skjer det en utvikling i selskapet så vil formodentlig kusmålene justeres deretter, men analytikerne er forsiktige, de har brent seg på forsinkelser og vil nok ennå se an litt før de ev. høyner sine kursmål. Den mest grundige analysen har RPS med ca. $1 / aksje for produksjonen fra Mnazi Bay.
HighYield
20.11.2017 kl 13:04 19733

Mer om growth in gasdemand.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201711200168.html

"Gas consumption increased significantly in 2015, as gas from the Mnazi Bay Concession was brought on stream. According to a statement by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation last December, gas-fired generation increased by 280MW.

"We forecast incremental gas production growth across the next seven years, driven by a number of marginal field developments. We see output rising to 2.7bcm [billion cubic metres] by 2021 from an estimated 1.5 bcm in 2015."
Slettet bruker
19.11.2017 kl 22:50 20028

Kursmål som dette er hovedsakelig grunnen for at kursen ikke går mener nå jeg. Pareto har som kjent kr 4.
alph
19.11.2017 kl 22:37 20016

Sparebank 1 Markets med en heftig oppjustering på kursmålet for WRL, med hele 20%.
Fra 2,5 til kr 3...

Hva baseres sånne analyser på mon tro?
altin
19.11.2017 kl 13:02 20303

"Dette ble sagt i Dar es Salaam i går av TANESCO Relations Manager, Leila Muhaji mens de diskuterer en del TANESCO. Han sa at gjennomføringen av integrasjonen av Power Station II Kinyerezi gass til sentralnettet vil øke produksjonskapasiteten av elektrisitet i tillegg til 30 megawatt av desember i år."

Flott , endelig går ting raskere enn forventet i Tanzania. :)
Redigert 19.11.2017 kl 13:27 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
13.11.2017 kl 13:36 20772

Ting har tatt tid for WRL. Scenariet som beskrives i ovennevnte analyse er vel omtrent 2 år på overtid, men ser endelig ut til å materialisere seg. Dette vet vi basert på informasjon om blant annet Dangote og Kinyerezi II som ikke har andre alternativer pt. enn å ta gass fra WRL.

Over de neste drøye 3 mnd. vil vi formodentlig få 2 meget lovende kvartalsrapporter + farm-in på Tembo. Dersom dette tiltrekker seg større investorer, vil vi kunne få en meget hyggelig kursoppgang.

:-)
Slettet bruker
11.11.2017 kl 00:10 21035

Se der logger de seg på et annet forum. Akkurat som at de forstår noe som ikke alle andre forstår. Med dette mener jeg symbiosen av markedet. Tilstanden hvor ingen forstår mens de prøver å ta standpunkt. Ta standpunkt av noe de ikke forstår.

Ingen idag vet hvordan Tanzania vil utvikle seg. Utvikle seg og om hvorvidt wrl vil få rom til å tjene seg steinrike. Steinrike iløpet av neste 15-20 år.

Mvh
Slettet bruker
10.11.2017 kl 23:50 21161

pluto;

Jeg kommer ikke til å legge den ut direkte, fordi den har tekst i rød skrift om eksklusivitet, noe jeg ikke ønsker å komme i konflikt med. Men ovennevnte utdrag er de viktigste i analysen og jeg har kun utelatt småting i teksten. Resten er egentlig ikke så interessant for oss som følger WRL ganske tett. Det er i hovedsak ting herfra:
http://wentworthresources.com/pdf/Mnazi_Bay_Resource_Evaluation_v1605_20170308_03-2017.pdf

Ellers så har vi jo denne: https://www.dropbox.com/s/xkhk5wy8g8sqrs3/Wentworth-resources-oil-gas-investor-forum-june-2017.pdf

:-)
pluto
10.11.2017 kl 23:27 21104

Den analysen skulle jeg gjerne fått tak i. Kan du være behjelpelig med det, Josik?
Slettet bruker
10.11.2017 kl 23:15 21138

40something

Det er markedet alene som bestemmer og hvorfor er dette så vanskelig å forstå? Av og til opplever jeg mange av dere som noviser. Rett og slett uten nok erfaring til å forstå hvordan det kan tapes penger i aksjemarkedet. Se bare på hva som skjer i Nano fortiden. Usikkerheten råder mens investorer her på forumet er i ferd med å rive hverandre i stykker.

Vi blir veldig lett et ekkokammer her på HO.

Voks opp om dere skal være i aksjemarkedet. Det er penger som kan tjenes men MYE mer som kan tapes, rent statistisk.

Skål!
Redigert 10.11.2017 kl 23:19 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
10.11.2017 kl 23:12 21143

synes innlegget til Josik er bra, jeg Symphony. dvs han har vel bare limt inn essensen fra en analyse.

Min definisjon på haussing er når noen fremsnakker en aksje / lover at den skal stige (gjerne himmelhøyt) og aksjen fortsetter å falle jevnt og trutt. Josiks innlegg ville ikke jeg skrevet, men jeg kaller det ikke haussing.- . Å si at en dame er lekker, er innafor...
Slettet bruker
10.11.2017 kl 23:10 21139

Jeg kan jo også ta med hvordan Peel Hunt vurderer risiko.

Risks

Commercial/fiscal
Wentworth has a long-term gas sales agreement in place that extends to October 2031, providing visibility on long-term production cash flows.

Within the gas sales contract there is a take or pay provision designed to ensure that payment for a minimum of 85% of the contracted sales volume is received. This means that should the Mnazi Bay partners choose to exercise the provision, they are entitled to receive payment for 85% of the fully contracted 80MMcf/d of gas supply, regardless of whether TPDC takes delivery, or not.

In spite of the slower than anticipated build-up in production and sales due to slower than expected growth in downstream power demand, the take-or-pay provision has not been exercised. We understand this decision was taken so as to maintain good partner relations during the early stages of what will be a long-term contractual relationship.

Geopolitical
There are currently several high-profile ongoing disputes within the gold and diamond mining industries. Tanzania imposed a nationwide ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ores in March this year as part of a plan to promote the development of a domestic smelting industry and to secure an increased Government tax take. More recently, the Tanzanian Government also prevented the export of a large parcel of diamonds destined for Antwerp in a move that unsettled investors in each of the respective mining companies affected.

So far the steps taken by the Government have been limited to the mining industry. Importantly there have been no indications that the Government is seeking to change retrospectively, or otherwise, any commercial agreements that have been reached within the petroleum industry. The importance of companies like Wentworth to the ongoing development of Tanzania by supplying affordable gas for power generation cannot be understated. Quite simply without Mnazi Bay gas, the Government’s ability to fund its industrialisation plans and expand the national grid and electrification of the country would be severely impeded.

Financial
Wentworth’s balance sheet reported net debt of c$16.2m, comprising cash of $3.8m and drawn debt of c$20m at the end of June 2017. By year end 2017 further debt principal repayments totalling $1m and $2.3m will have been made and further production cash inflows from TPDC and TANESCO will have been received. Current net debt is therefore likely to be closer to c$14m and we forecast a year-end 2017 figure of $12.3m.

As demand growth and infrastructure build out continues over the coming months and years, production is expected to continue to ramp up towards the contracted volume of c80MMcf/d before increasing further to >100MMcf/d. At this point and assuming normalisation of the receivables position and regular cash receipts going forwards, Wentworth will be a highly cash-generative business throwing off free cash from Mnazi Bay of $17m in 2019E.

Geological
The Mnazi Bay Concession is located on the south-eastern coast of Tanzania, just north of the border with Mozambique.

In 1982 the Mnazi Bay gas field was discovered by AGIP, which drilled the discovery well on a seismically-defined structure. The well was evaluated as having oil and gas in several potential reservoir zones and was drill stem tested over two Miocene aged zones; the “D” zone producing over 13MMcf/d of sweet dry gas and then the “D” & “E” zones combined, flowing at about 12.5MMcf/d of dry gas. These tests demonstrated the commercial potential of the discovery.

Since then much geological data acquisition, interpretation, field appraisal and development has taken place and the Mnazi Bay gas field has matured into a source of domestic gas supply that is of strategic importance.

Through extensive geological and geophysical evaluation, all of the key elements of the petroleum system are now very well defined and understood, therefore in our view the geological risks associated with Mnazi Bay’s ongoing commercial development are low.

40something
10.11.2017 kl 22:43 21168

Ikke for å ta edge fra meglere, men hvis de ikke klarer å påvirke de nærmeste investorerne som kjøper deres tjenester, så hvorfor skal vi retailers reagere med å kjøpe der de som egentlig burde kjøpt før analysene blir offentlig og vanligvis da de allerede er inne.
Alle husene som skriver opp eller ned på Hegnar har jo allerede posisjonert seg og vil at alle ville hestene skal dekke inn gevinstene.
Nei, hvis ikke husene klarer å selge inn analysene til de som sitter på pengene, så har ikke de gjort jobben sin. De har sikkert riktig i sine analyser, men lønnen sin må de fortjene fra de som er faste kunder. Ikke fra oss "dumme" som får kompassen manipulert.
Kingen
10.11.2017 kl 22:19 21167

Tusen takk for info Josik. Fantastisk spennende fremover. Det er nesten så en ikke får sove om dagen. Kan ikke skjønne at dette skal gå gale
Slettet bruker
10.11.2017 kl 21:48 21215

Josik

I følge brumlebassen er dette haussing. Derfor må du passe deg utover å bare oppgi kurs og adressen til selskapet. Du kan også om du vil, legge inn realtime kurs på forumet. Dette fordi mange er 15 minutter etter oss andre som har betalt for kurs i nåtid.

Går du utover dette ved for eksempel å finne linker og/eller snakke positivt om selskapet du har satset dine egne surt opptjente midler i, er du en hausser. Spesielt om du gjør dette på et aksjeforum.

Skål!
Redigert 10.11.2017 kl 21:51 Du må logge inn for å svare