Litt utenfor, men semi er semi.

Samsung successfully develops 5nm semiconductor process

The latest innovation hails from Korean chipmaker Samsung, which this week announced it has developed a 5-nanometer (nm) semiconductor process using its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology.

For more than a decade, EUV has been hailed as the technology that will extend the lifespan of Moore’s Law. The process uses ultraviolet light to create billions of tiny structures on the thin slices of silicon that make up chips, enabling smaller, speedier and more powerful chips.

The announcement comes just a few months after Samsung began mass production of EUV-based processors using a 7nm process that it unveiled in October last year, mainly for use in its flagship smartphone models.

https://techerati.com/news-hub/samsung-successfully-develops-5nm-semiconductor-process/

Kjempelekkert! For noen muligheter som ligger i mikroteknologi nå for tiden :D

https://www.tek.no/artikler/kommentar-er-mobilens-storhetsperiode-over/433687

ON Semiconductor is to acquire GLOBALFOUNDRIES’ 300mm fab located in East Fishkill, New York.


The deal is worth $430 million, of which $100 million has been paid at signing of the definitive agreement, and $330 million will be paid at the end of 2022, after which ON Semiconductor will gain full operational control of the fab, and the site’s employees will transition to ON Semiconductor.

http://www.newelectronics.co.uk/electronics-news/on-semiconductor-to-acquire-globalfoundries-300mm-facility/214439/

Progress at Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 Remains Murky Amid Concerns Over Jobs Target

Tesla is staring down a 2020 employment deadline in New York state. Skeptics wonder if the company can meet it.

EMMA FOEHRINGER MERCHANT
APRIL 18, 2019

**

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/progress-at-teslas-gigafactory-2-murky-amid-concerns-over-jobs-target#gs.7iepei

China’s solar installations could hit 50GW in 2020 – PV InfoLink

Jun 27, 2019 12:34 PM BST

PV Market research firm, PV InfoLink has forecasted demand in China could reach 50GW in 2020, despite its forecast of demand in 2019, being lower than expected at 33.6GW.

PV InfoLink expects China’s PV installation boom to start ramping in the fourth quarter of 2019 as new range grid parity support mechanisms come into effective operation. A combination, dominated by ‘Bidding Projects’ and ‘Grid Parity’ projects in the fourth quarter is expected to result in installations topping 15.5GW, up from a forecasted 9.6GW in the third quarter of 2019.

(...)

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-solar-installations-could-hit-50gw-in-2020-pv-infolink

Epost fra semi.org datert 10. juli 2019:

«SEMI 2019 Mid-Year Total Equipment Forecast – 2019 Market Reset With 2020 Recovery

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. – July 10, 2019 – Global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers are projected to drop 18.4 percent to $52.7 billion in 2019 from last year’s historic high of $64.5 billion, SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing and design supply chain, reported today in its Mid-Year Total Equipment Forecast.

Image result for semi logo
Released at SEMICON West 2019, the forecast shows growth in equipment sales resuming in 2020, with an 11.6 percent jump to $58.8 billion. The current forecast reflects recent downward adjustments in capital expenditures and rising market uncertainty due in part to geopolitical tensions.
The SEMI Mid-Year Forecast shows wafer processing equipment sales falling 19.1 percent in 2019 to $42.2 billion. The other front-end segment, consisting of fab facilities equipment, wafer manufacturing, and mask/reticle equipment, is expected to slide 4.2 percent to $2.6 billion this year. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is on track to decline 22.6 percent to $3.1 billion in 2019, while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to decrease 16.4 percent to $4.7 billion this year.

Taiwan will dethrone Korea as the largest equipment market and lead the world with 21.1 percent growth this year, followed by North America with an 8.4 percent uptick. China will maintain the second spot for the second consecutive year, and Korea will fall to third after throttling back capital expenditures. All regions tracked except Taiwan and North America will contract this year.

SEMI forecasts that, in 2020, the equipment market is expected to recover on the strength of memory spending and new projects in China. Equipment sales in Japan will surge 46.4 percent to $9.0 billion. China, Korea, and Taiwan are forecast to remain the top three markets next year, with China rising to the top for the first time. Korea is forecast to become the second largest market at $11.7 billion, while Taiwan is expected to reach $11.5 billion in equipment sales. More upside is likely if the macroeconomy improves and trade tensions subside in 2020.

The Mid-Year Total Equipment Forecast is based on SEMI's industry-recognized World Fab Forecast database and input from equipment manufacturers. Total equipment includes wafer processing, other front end, total test, and assembly and packaging equipment.

The following results are in terms of the market size in billions of U.S. dollars.



Image



The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports: the monthly SEMI Billings Report, which offers an early perspective of the trends in the equipment market; the monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (SEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment bookings and billings for seven regions and over 22 market segments; and the SEMI Mid-Year Forecast, which provides an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market.

For more information or to subscribe, please contact SEMI customer service at 1.877.746.7788 (toll free in the U.S.). For more information online, please click here.»

China Approves 22.8 Gigawatts Of Solar PV For 2019 Subsidies

July 15th, 2019 by Joshua S Hill

Last week, China’s National Energy Administration announced the results of its first national solar auction for Feed-in Tariff (FiT)-approved projects, in which it awarded 22.78 gigawatts (GW) across 3,921 projects, all of which must be completed and grid-connected by the end of the year.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/15/china-approves-22-8-gigawatts-of-solar-pv-for-2019-subsidies/

Solar panel demand expected to reach 125.5 GW in 2019, TrendForce says

According to the Taiwanese market research company, PV panel demand will increase by 16% over 2018 shipments. TrendForce also believes this growth trend will continue in 2020.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/07/17/solar-panel-demand-expected-to-reach-125-5-gw-in-2019-trendforce-says/

Second Quarter 2019 Silicon Wafer Area Shipments Fall 2.2 Percent from First Quarter Levels

MILPITAS, Calif. — July 23, 2019 — Worldwide silicon wafer area shipments totaled 2,983 million square inches in the second quarter of 2019, down 2.2 percent from the 3,051 million square inches shipped in the first quarter of the year and 5.6 percent lower than shipments during the same period in 2018, according to the SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) in its quarterly analysis of the silicon wafer industry.

"Global silicon wafer shipment are being impacted by the same headwinds that are facing the broader industry,” said Neil Weaver, chairman SEMI SMG and vice president, Product Development and Applications Engineering of Shin Etsu Handotai America. “While shipment area growth is currently subdued, the long-term outlook for the industry remains positive.”

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/second-quarter-2019-silicon-wafer-area-shipments-fall-2-2-percent-from-first-quarter-levels-300888871.html

Global Solar PV Installations Expected To Hit 114.5 Gigawatts In 2019

Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables has published a new report which outlines the analyst group’s prediction that global solar PV installations will reach a new high of 114.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2019, growing by 17.5% on 2018 and putting the industry on track to reach around 125 GW per year by the early 2020s.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/29/global-solar-pv-installations-expected-to-hit-114-5-gigawatts-in-2019/

Interessant lesning om produksjonskostnader og kapasitet i Kina.

Veldig interessant at prisforskjellen mellom mono og multi er skrapet helt til beinet. Hvis produksjonen av mono koster 20 Yuan mer pr kg, eller mer, så utgjør dette knappest prisforskjellen mellom mono og multi.

Prisforskjellene vil være noe annerledes ved FBR produksjon.
Men et rimelig anslag er at Rec har en strømkostnad som tilsvarer det dyreste i artikkelen.
For Rec vil vel det tilsvare 50 mill USD mer kostnad enn hos billigste produksjon i Kina, pr år.
Hvis disse tallene stemmer, så vil det jaggu meg bli vanskelig å konkurrere med Kina, hvis straffetollen fjernes.
Og selv med straffetoll vil nok kinesiske solceller utkonkurrere amerikanske, så noen produksjon i ROW er vel heller tvilsomt.

Energiforbruket av elektrisitet, damp, kull, vann, etc. i den integrerte produksjonsprosessen, mener Yan Dazhou-analysen at polysilisiumbedriften flyttet til Xinjiang som representant Den nordvestlige provinsen kan spare 20-26 yuan / kg i energibruk.

De siste statistiske dataene fra analyseorganisasjonen Jibang New Energy viser at den nåværende prisklassen for polykrystallinske tette materialer for enkeltkrystall i Kina er 74-77 yuan / kg, og gjennomsnittsprisen opprettholdes på 76,6 yuan / kg; prisklassen for polykrystallinsk løs materiale for ingots er på 55-59 yuan / kg. "Den nåværende prisen på polysilisium har allerede drevet selskapet til å bli gal ." Yan Dazhou ga reporteren en slik redegjørelse: "I prisen på det tette materialet på 76 yuan / kg har kostnadsforskjellen nådd 20 yuan / kg eller mer. Minimumsnivået på 20 yuan per kilogram er beregnet. Hvis en stor fabrikk med en årlig produksjon på 50 000 tonn eller så, vil den koste 1 milliard yuan i året. "

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=no&prev=search&rurl=translate.google.no&sl=zh-CN&u=http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190729/996153.shtml&usg=ALkJrhh_mp6J2hPw07N3I3oH8s3aJ1jbRQ

WACKER CHEMIE:EBITDA EUR 210,7M I 2.KV 2019 (260,5)
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Wacker Chemie, som blant annet produserer silisium, fikk en ebitda på 210,7 millioner euro i andre kvartal 2019, mot 260,5 millioner euro i samme periode året før, opplyser selskapet i kvartalsrapporten torsdag.
Selskapets omsetning var 1,269 milliarder euro i kvartalet (1,330).
Innen Wacker Polysilicon ble omsetningen 169,9 millioner euro, ned 30 prosent fra 242,1 millioner euro i samme kvartal i fjor. Nedgangen var i hovedsak grunnet betydelig lavere gjennomsnittlige solar-grad polisilisiumpriser, og noe lavere volum, skriver selskapet. Ebitda for segmentet ble 5,7 millioner euro, ned fra 39,1 millioner i samme kvartal i fjor. Ebitda steg imidlertid fra -35,8 millioner i første kvartal 2019, der økningen delvis skyldes driftsmessige forbedringer, ifølge selskapet.
Selskapet gjentar guiding for 2019 om omsetningsvekst på "midt ensifret prosent", med en ebitda som trolig vil falle med 10-20 prosent mot året før, men ser nå ebitda å bli nærmere nedre del av intervallet, og viser til at den globale økonomien mister momentet og at Kinas solmarked ikke har tatt seg opp.
Wacker venter nå at ebitdamarginen vil være vesentlig lavere enn forrige år, og venter driftsinvesteringer rundt 400 millioner dollar lavere enn i fjor.
BNS, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

ON Semi teams with Cree for SiC wafers
https://www.eenewseurope.com/news/semi-teams-cree-sic-wafers-0

«N.American semicon makers posted global billings of US$2.03 billion in July, says SEMI

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 23): North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted US$2.03 billion in billings worldwide in July 2019, according to the U.S.-based Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International’s (SEMI) November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report.

In a statement on its website Aug 22, SEMI said the billings figure is 0.4% higher than the final June 2091 level of US$2.03 billion, and is 14.5% lower than the July 2019 billings level of US$2.38 billion.

SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha said total billings of North American equipment manufacturers for July were slightly up over June billings.

“Demand for semiconductor equipment this year is being driven by leading-edge logic and foundry, though memory segment growth is soft due to weak market sentiment,” he said.»

Juli hadde 14,5% lavere omsetning enn samme tid i fjor. Til sammenligning var juni 2019 19% lavere enn juni 2018, mai 2019 var 23,6% dårligere enn mai 2018, mens mars 2019 kom på 24,6% lavere enn mars 2020.

Semimarkedet er med andre ord i ferd med å ta seg opp igjen.

Fabs Valued at Nearly $50 Billion to Start Construction in 2020

MILPITAS, Calif., Sept. 12, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Investments in new fab projects starting construction in 2020 is expected to reach nearly US$50 billion, up about US$12 billion from 2019, according to the latest update of the World Fab Forecast from SEMI.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fabs-valued-at-nearly-50-billion-to-start-construction-in-2020-300915652.html

Bloomberg 9. sept.

Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035, Study Says

Generators now on drawing boards will be left uneconomical
Development would be a dramatic reversal of fortune for gas

Natural gas-fired power plants, which have crushed the economics of coal, are on the path to being undercut themselves by renewable power and big batteries, a study found.

By 2035, it will be more expensive to run 90% of gas plants being proposed in the U.S. than it will be to build new wind and solar farms equipped with storage systems, according to the report Monday from the Rocky Mountain Institute. It will happen so quickly that gas plants now on the drawing boards will become uneconomical before their owners finish paying for them, the study said.

The development would be a dramatic reversal of fortune for gas plants, which 20 years ago supplied less than 20% of electricity in the U.S. Today that share has jumped to 35% as hydraulic fracturing has made natural gas cheap and plentiful, forcing scores of coal plants to close nationwide.

The authors of the study say they analyzed the costs of construction, fuel and anticipated operations for 68 gigawatts of gas plants proposed across the U.S. They compared those costs to building a combination of solar farms, wind plants and battery systems that, together with conservation efforts, could supply the same amount of electricity and keep the grid stable.

As gas plants lose their edge in power markets, the economics of pipelines will suffer, too, RMI said in a separate study Monday. Even lines now in the planning stages could soon be out of the money, the report found.

“Our story for gas plants is, if you build it, they won’t run -- they won’t run at their expected capacity factors,” said Mark Dyson, who co-wrote both reports. “And that filters down to pipelines, too.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/gas-plants-will-get-crushed-by-wind-solar-by-2035-study-says

Total Wafer Shipments to Drop 6 Percent in 2019, Resume Growth in 2020, Set New High in 2022, SEMI Reports

MILPITAS, California, Sept. 30, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Total wafer shipments in 2019 are expected to decline 6 percent from last year's historic high, with growth resuming in 2020 and shipments reaching a new high in 2022, according to SEMI's annual semiconductor industry silicon shipment forecast.

Forecast demand for silicon units through 2022 shows polished and epitaxial silicon shipments totaling 11,757 million square inches in 2019, 11,977 million square inches in 2020, 12,390 million square inches in 2021, and 12,785 million square inches in 2022 (see table below).

"Silicon shipment volumes are expected to decline this year as the industry works through accumulated inventory and weaker demand," said Clark Tseng, director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. "The industry is expected to stabilize in 2020 and regain growth momentum in 2021 and 2022."

https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/total-wafer-shipments-to-drop-6-percent-in-2019-resume-growth-in-2020-set-new-high-in-2022-semi-reports-849806490.html

Takk takk Gråbein,

Hva betyr så dette? Vel, hvis man samtidig ser på q2 presentasjonen til rec, hvor rec på slide 16 guider at semi salget går ned med ca 25-30 prosent i 2019 sammenlignet med 2018 så er det etter mitt syn svært sannsynligvis at guidingen var for konservativ. Selv om det konservative anslaget til rec også er påvirket av markedsandeler har, som jeg har nevnt før, semiconductor markedet tatt seg opp igjen raskere enn forventet. Dette vil ha sterk positiv betydning for rec.

Ja, underskuddet har blitt mindre og mindre for hver rapport de siste kvartalene. Vi er snart i pluss igjen, og Buttes silanproduksjon vil bare fortsette å øke herfra! Gleder meg til kvartalsrapporten om en måned!

Knuser forventningene: Kraftig vekst i fornybar energi fremover

Solcelle-boom gjør at strøm fra fornybar energi kan vokse 50 prosent, ifølge IEA.

- Fornybar energi er allerede verdens nest største strømkilde, men utviklingen må fortsatt akselerere hvis vi skal nå de langsiktige målene for klima, luftkvalitet og energitilgang, skriver IEA-direktør Fatih Birol i markedsanalysen Renewables 2019.

Fornybar energi-kapasiteten ser ut til å vokse med 50 prosent mellom 2019 og 2024, ifølge Det internasjonale energibyrået (IEA). Nye installasjoner av solceller står alene for 60 prosent av økningen, mens vindkraft på land står for 25 prosent. Vindturbiner til havs står vil stå for 4 prosent av økningen, ifølge prognosen.

...

https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/knuser-forventningene-kraftig-vekst-i-fornybar-energi-fremover/3423865256.html

Blir bra for Rec dette. Og så nå som det ser ut til å være skikkelig medgang i forhandlingene mellom USA og Kina. Det måtte jo bare komme, men her er det sannelig mange triggere. Vet du hva som menes med trigger, nemi?

Teslas kvartalsrapport:

- Solar installs +48% from Q2

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1187113794234793984?s=21

Hele kvartalsrapporten (pdf): https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

WACKER CHEMIE:EBITDA EUR 273M I 3.KV 2019 (242)

08:03
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Wacker Chemie, som blant annet produserer silisium, fikk en ebitda på 273 millioner euro i tredje kvartal 2019, mot 242 millioner euro i samme periode året før, opplyser selskapet i kvartalsrapporten torsdag.

Selskapets omsetning var 1,268 milliarder euro i kvartalet (1,243).

Innen Wacker Polysilicon ble omsetningen 206 millioner euro, opp 19 prosent fra 174 millioner euro i samme kvartal i fjor, drevet primært av sterk volumvekst.

Ebitda for segmentet ble 85 millioner euro sammenlignet med 4 millioner i samme kvartal i fjor, på grunn av positive engangsposter.

Som tidligere meldt venter Wacker Chemie nå at omsetningen i 2019 vil bli på linje med året før, mot tidligere guidet midt-ensifret vekst, mens ebitda guides nå til å bli rundt 30 prosent lavere enn fjoråret, mot tidligere ned 10-20 prosent.

Netto kontantstrøm i 2019 ventes å bli klart positiv, sammenlignet med tidligere guiding om klart positiv og betydelig høyere enn fjoråret.

TDN Direkt finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed

Her kommer et nytt marked for silan. Kvantemaskinforskning :)

https://www.tek.no/artikler/stort-gjennombrudd-forskere-har-laget-en-kvanteprosessor-med-vanlig-silisium-teknologi/193219

https://www.hpcwire.com/2019/09/24/d-waves-path-to-5000-qubits-googles-quantum-supremacy-claim/

Synes dette var interessant lesing om bruken av bly i solpaneler.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/10/26/the-weekend-read-a-lead-free-future-for-solar-pv/

30.10 spennede.

Apropos at semi-markedet tar seg opp. Installert kapasitet for MEMS og sensorfabrikker vokser 25 prosent fra 2018 til 2023.

Global MEMS and Sensors Fab Capacity to Grow 25 Percent Through 2023, SEMI Reports

MILPITAS, Calif. — October 29, 2019 — Total worldwide installed capacity for MEMS and sensors fabs is forecast to grow 25 percent to 4.7 million wafers* per month from 2018 to 2023, driven by explosive demand across communications, transportation, medical, mobile, industrial and other Internet of Things (IoT) applications, according to the new MEMS & Sensors Fab Report to 2023 published by SEMI.

Rapporten her: https://www.semi.org/en/MEMSFabReport

Forøvrig: MEMS = Microelectromechanical Systems, og brukes bl.a. i:
Blekkskrivere
Akselerometere i moderne biler
Dekktrykk-sensorer i moderne biler
Akselerometere i spillkontroller (PlayStation, X Box, osv)
Gyroskop i fjernstyrte helikopter og droner
Temperaturkompensatorer i moderne klokker
DLP-projektorer
Optisk svitsjing innen datakommunikasjon
Biosensorer
Smartmobilskjermer

... og mye mer.

SEMI sine rapporter er forøvrig troverdige, da dette er en stiftelse bestående av selve bransjen. Ikke de bogus-forecast-ene som florerer på nettet.

Vedlegg - hvor langt fram i tid? Volum? Inntjening?
Hvor kam REC`s syklus være m et år eller tre?
Fortsatt gående med ok innhold, eller bare ramma igjen - forvitret?

-> https://www.tek.no/nyheter/nyhet/i/LAeAAP/stort-kvante-gjennombrudd-dette-endrer-alt-sier-forskerne

Endelige positive semi-tall!

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts October 2019 Billings

MILPITAS, Calif. — November 19, 2019 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.11 billion in billings worldwide in October 2019 (three-month average basis), according to the October Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 7.7 percent higher than the final September 2019 level of $1.96 billion, and is 3.9 percent higher than the October 2018 billings level of $2.03 billion.


“Monthly billings of North American equipment manufacturers registered their first year-over-year increase since October 2018 and are at their highest level since December of last year,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “Equipment billings are accelerating on the strength of memory inventory drawdowns and foundry investments in leading-edge equipment.”

https://www.semi.org/en/news-resources/press/october-billings

Nikola sitt nye batteri med større energi-tetthet kan tyde på bruk av silisium :)

"The Nikola prototype cell is the first battery that removes binder material and current collectors, enabling more energy storage within the cell"
En wafer-plate etchet med nanostrukturer holder sammen så den trenger ingen binder materiale, og den leder selv strøm i mikrokretser så den trenger ingen collector. De finnes "36 million of these microbatteries on each 12-inch chip"...

Her trenger man MANGE wafere.. og BILLIGE wafere. Denne kommer i 2020, sammenfallende med Nikola 2020 :)

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124159_silicon-wafer-batteries-promise-lower-cost-better-stability

Third Quarter 2019 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings Jump 12 Percent, SEMI Reports

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/third-quarter-2019-worldwide-semiconductor-equipment-billings-jump-12-percent-semi-reports-300965728.html

Global Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast - 2020 Rebound, 2021 Record High

TOKYO, Dec. 10, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will drop 10.5 percent to $57.6 billion in 2019 from last year's historic peak of $64.4 billion but stage a 2020 recovery and set a new high in 2021, SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing and design supply chain, reported today in its Year-End Total Equipment Forecast.

Released at SEMICON Japan 2019, the forecast shows equipment sales registering a 5.5 percent increase to $60.8 billion in 2020 and continued expansion into 2021, with record revenues of $66.8 billion as leading device manufactures invest in sub-10nm equipment, especially for foundry and logic.

Saken fortsetter her:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-semiconductor-equipment-sales-forecast--2020-rebound-2021-record-high-300970916.html

Har ikke tid til å trekke ut sitater fra denne, men dette er gode nyheter for semibransjen.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-fab-equipment-spending-rebounds-in-second-half-of-2019-with-stronger-2020-projected-semi-reports-300973703.html

Test.. maks 100 innlegg?

Tror 100-grensen kun var gamle forumet.

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts November 2019 Billings

Shannon Davis Shannon Davis
22 mins ago
North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.12 billion in billings worldwide in November 2019 (three-month average basis), according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 1.9 percent higher than the final October 2019 level of $2.08 billion, and is 9.1 percent higher than the November 2018 billings level of $1.94 billion.

“Monthly billings of North American equipment manufacturers increased month-over-month for the second consecutive month,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “This improvement in equipment billings meets industry expectations for a stronger close to 2019.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg.) Year-Over-Year
June 2019 $2.026.1 -18.4%
July 2019 $2,031.9 -14.6%
August 2019 $2,001.8 -10.5%
September 2019 $1,959.1 -5.7%
October (final) $2,080.8 2.5%
November (prelim) $2,121.1 9.1%

Kilde: Semi.org

https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/2019/12/20/north-american-semiconductor-equipment-industry-posts-november-2019-billings/

Ikke en nyhet, men en tanke etter årets CES-messe og kommende trender for 2020.

2020 blir året når 5G ruller ut. Lillestrøm får 50 5G-master fra Telia til å begynne med. https://e24.no/teknologi/i/zG3q8q/lillestroem-blir-telias-foerste-5g-by

Dette gjør ikke bare at mange flere vil kjøpe ny mobiltelefon i år, men også at byene må bygge ut hele mobilnett-infrastrukturen på nytt. Kortere bølgelengde på 5G, med tilsvarende dårligere rekkevidde, betyr for eksempel at man trenger mange ganger så mange master som med 4G.

Omtrent samtlige flaggskipmobiler fra nå av vil få 5G.

Vi ser også at WiFi 6 blir mainstream, med mesh-nettverk som starter så lavt som 3000 kroner.

Både 5G og WiFi 6 er nødvendige teknologier, for å håndtere den stadig økende mengden smarte IoT-produkter og smarte kjøretøy.

Dette er to nye, enorme infrastrukturer som krever nye produkter for å utnytte.

Da TT sa at semi-markedet er et "mature market", så kan han ikke ha tatt hensyn til alle de nye dingsene og produktene som vil komme som et skred. Det starter allerede i år. Alt må kjøpes nytt. Og vi vet at når nye teknologier kommer som folk flest har råd til, så har det med å skiftes ut fort. Dette blir et kvantesprang, som starter for fullt i år.

PC-markedet kan også fort få en ny oppblomstring. Laptoper får innebygd WiFi 6 og 5G, gaming-markedet er stadig voksende. PlayStation 5, som kommer på slutten av året, kan også nevnes her.

Dette er den vestlige verden.

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I Østen tror jeg også vi vil se store utslag.

I India ble det solgt 46,6 millioner smartmobiler i 3Q19. 26,5% opp fra forrige kvartal, og 9,3% opp fra samme tid i fjor. Andelen mellomklassemobiler økte med 6 prosentpoeng, til totalt 18,9% i 3Q19. På bekostning av budsjettmobilene. Dette som følge av økt velstand, som også vil komme nye teknologier til gode.
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP45640019

I Kina har tallene i det siste gått ned, men fallet bremset i 3Q19. Det ble solgt 97,8 millioner smartmobiler i Q3. Ned 3% fra fjorårets 100,6 millioner, samme periode. Huaweis markedsandel har gått opp til 40%. Så langt er det Huawei alene som har bygget ut det som er av 5G-infrastruktur i Kina (https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-focus-is-on-huawei-tech-as-china-launches-5g/a-51084816), så vi vet at 5G kommer til å bli et stort "selling point" for Huaweis mobiler. Det forventes at det kinesiske markedet vil ta seg opp igjen i år, blant annet takket være 5G.
https://www.gsmarena.com/canalys_huawei_dominates_the_domestic_smartphone_market_in_q3_2019-news-39870.php

Smarttelefonmarkedet i Afrika vokste 4% i Q3 2019 i forhold til samme tid i fjor. Totalt 22,6 million enheter ble solgt
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prMETA45682319

5G vil sørge for en kraftig vekst på smartmobilmarkedet verden over. Det starter allerede i år, men vi vil nok se en stadig brattere vekst de kommende få årene.

5G og WiFi 6 vil også gi nye muligheter innen forskning og medisin. Nytt utstyr kreves.
https://hitinfrastructure.com/features/wi-fi-6-5g-could-be-turning-point-for-health-it-infrastructure

I tillegg har vi det faktum at alle slags dingser blir smarte. Alt fra kjøkkenutstyr til hundehalsbåndene. Stemmestyring blir mer utbredt. Det forventes også videre vekst i TV-salget fremover. 8KTV er på vei for fullt. I år bare i high-end-modellene, men det kommer ikke til å gå lang tid før 8K-oppløsning også kommer til mellomklassen og deretter budsjettklassen. Som vil bidra til at flere vil ønske seg ny TV.

Det er mulig halvledermarkedet er "mature", men vi står i hvert fall ovenfor et kraftig byks de nærmeste årene. Først og fremst takket være 5G og WiFi 6.

Halvledermarkedet har sluttet å falle, vi har sett bunnen. Jeg tror veksten de nærmeste årene vil være enorm.

Bare noen tanker.

Fantastisk godt nytt for alle oss stayers i REC, grabein.

Husk å orientere KIR og TT 🙂