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Dry Bulk Market Prime for Yet Another Spike Says Shipbroker
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 01/03/2018

The dry bulk market’s recovery is well underway, as evidenced by the firm activity noted even during the Chinese New Year Holidays, which are traditionally a period of easing. Shipbrokers are now bullish for the market’s freigh rates’ increases, as we are headed for a traditionally strong “grain season”. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “with the Chinese New Year Festivities finally coming to a close, a flow of positive sentiment seems to be overwhelming markets, with many now seeing a great deal of opportunity emerging across most of the different shipping sectors. Obviously, Dry Bulkers have been the main beneficiaries thus far, with many having seen the rapid shift in conditions that took place during 2017 as an indicator of the better days to come. This seems to be further affirmed by the trends noted thus far in the year in terms of freight rates with, all size groups having consistently outperformed the respective freight rate levels they where noting during the same time frame last year”.

According to Allied’s, George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, “what’s more is that during the crucial Chinese New Year festivities, a period in the year which is typically characterized by a drop in the overall freight market and a relative quiet in terms of chartering activity as most Far East traders take their leave, things were radically different this time around. In the midst of the holiday period the market sparked to life in the Far East helping drive up rates, while setting the tone for the next couple of weeks. There is a feel now that we should see a fair improvement in the market, while the approaching grain season should help drive a relatively strong spike”.

Lazaridis added that “this latter point is further enhanced by the strong overall performance noted in the grain and soybean trades. The drive in seaborne trade however does not seem to be limited to the dry bulk space. The improved outlook and performance noted in most of the major emerging and developed economies has helped drive markets across the whole commodities space. Sure, things are relatively more troubled in the crude oil and oil products space, yet even here there seems to be a Far Eastern demand drive that should help push for a gradual improvement in the overall tanker market balance”.

According to Allied’s analyst, “the improved global economic environment has also helped boost conditions in the gas carrier and containership sectors. There are still a number of possible disruptors threatening the viability of this latest market drive, however when looking at these closely, they seem to hold a possibility for minimal attrition effects to the overall upward trend being seen. Combining all of this with the state of the respective “in service” fleets and orderbooks for each of the main 4 shipping sectors and it seems as though there is a strong argument emerging in favor of high optimism”.

Meanwhile, “this optimism is now slowly also showing face in the secondhand and newbuilding markets, with investment appetite on the rise from both shipowners as well as financiers. In terms of the latter though, there is still a considerable gap to be filled, despite the fact that this is slowly starting to be tackled by more novel financing structures and a floury of new sources of capital. This gap in financing coupled by the fact that it has only been a short while since the bottoming out of earnings in each of these respective sectors have surely acted as temporary “brakes”, though given the gradual rise in earnings we are surely to see ever more buying interest flock to both the secondhand and newbuilding markets. There is certainly more room for price gains to be made in some sectors compared to others, taking into consideration where values are right now. However even in sectors such as that of dry bulkers, where asset prices have already risen considerably during the course of the past year, their much better freight market performance could still drive considerable increases in values over the next 12 months”, Lazaridis concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-prime-for-yet-another-spike-says-shipbroker/