Shale Oil'ene i US får trøbbel om oljeprisen kommer ned på 50-tallet.

Russia agrees with Saudi to extend OPEC deal by six-nine months: Putin
Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend by six to nine months a deal with OPEC on reducing oil output, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, as oil prices come under renewed pressure from rising U.S. supplies and a slowing global economy.
Saturday, June 29th 2019, 11:15 AM HST


https://nos.nl/artikel/2291283-opec-landen-verlengen-lagere-olieproductie-waarschijnlijk-met-9-maanden.html

Jeg har sett på produksjonstallene for 2018.
Disse viste (over 0,5 Mb/d) :
1. USA 15,31 Mb/d
2. Saudi 12,29
3. Russia 11,44
4. Canada 5,21
5. Iran 4,72
6. Irak 4,61
7. UAE 3,94
8. Kina 3,80
9. Kuwait 3,05
10. Brasil 2,68
11. Mexico 2,07
12. Nigeria 2,05
13. Kazakstan 1,93
14. Qatar 1,88
15. Norge 1,84
16. Angola 1,53
17. Algerie 1,51
18. Venezuela 1,51
19. UK 1,09
20. Libya 1,01
21. Oman 0,98
22. Colombia 0,87
23. India 0,87
24. Indonesia 0,81
25. Azerbajdjan 0,80
26. Malaysia 0,68
27. Egypt 0,67
28. Argentina 0,59
29. Ecuador 0,52

The world 94,72 Mb/d
OPEC 39,34 Mb/d

Midt-Østen (8 land) : 31,98 Mb/d
NAFTA (3 land) : 22,59 Mb/d
Russia + Kazakstan + Azerbajdan : 14,17 Mb/d
Sum disse 3 grupper : 68,74 mb/d (72,6 % av verdensproduksjonen)

Topp 5 : 48,97 Mb/d
Topp 10 : 67,05
Topp 15 : 76,82
Topp 20 : 83,47
Topp 25 : 87,80
Topp 29 : 90,26 ( av 94,72 Mb/d, el. 95,3 % av verdensproduksjonen).

Oljeprisen vil antagelig stige ganske mye kommende døgn tenker jeg

Fra BPs globale energirapport for 2018 (utkommet i Juni) :

Oil
The annual average oil price (Dated Brent) rose to $71.31 per barrel, up from $54.19/barrel in 2017. Oil consumption grew by an above-average 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), or 1.5%. China (680,000 b/d) and the US (500,000 b/d) were the largest contributors to growth. Global oil production rose by 2.2 million b/d. Almost all of the net increase was accounted for by the US, with their growth in production (2.2 million b/d) a record for any country in any year. Elsewhere, production growth in Canada (410,000 b/d) and Saudi Arabia (390,000 b/d) was outweighed by declines in Venezuela (-580,000 b/d) and Iran (-310,000 b/d). Refinery throughput rose by 960,000 b/d, down from 1.5 million b/d in 2017. Nevertheless, average refinery utilization climbed to its highest level since 2007.

Global oljeproduksjon 2018
OPEC production fell by 0.3 Mb/d in 2018, with a marked increase in Saudi Arabian production (0.4 Mb/d) offset by falls in Venezuela (-0.6 Mb/d) and Iran (-0.3 Mb/d). But this year-on-year comparison doesn’t do justice to the intra-year twists and turns in OPEC production. The ride began in the first half of 2018 with the continuation of the OPEC+ agreement from December 2016. The OPEC+ group consistently overshot their agreed production cuts during 2017 and this overshooting increased further during the first half of 2018, largely reflecting continuing falls in Venezuelan output. These production cuts helped push OECD inventories below their five year moving average for the first time since the collapse in oil prices in 2014. The first major twist came in the middle of 2018: in response to falling Venezuelan production and the US announcing in May its intention to impose sanctions on all Iranian oil exports, the OPEC+ group in June committed to achieving 100% compliance of their production cuts for the group as a whole. This commitment contained two important signals. First, given the extent to which production was below the target level, it signalled the prospect of an immediate increase in production. Second, it helped reduce the uncertainty associated with the possibility of future disruptions to either Iranian and Venezuelan production since the commitment to maintain “100% compliance” in essence signalled the willingness of other members of the OPEC+ group to offset any lost production. As a result, between May and November of last year, net production by the OPEC+ group increased by 900 Kb/d, despite Iranian and Venezuelan production falling by a further 1 Mb/d. Job done. Or was it? The problem with trying to stabilize oil markets is that there is always some other pesky development that you hadn’t expected. Oil production by Libya and Nigeria – neither of which were part of the OPEC+ agreement – increased by more than 500 Kb/d between June and November of last year. As a result, OECD inventories started to grow again. The growing sense of excess supply was compounded by the US announcing in November that it would grant temporary waivers for some imports of Iranian oil. This triggered another twist: a new OPEC+ group was formed in December of last year – this time excluding Iran and Venezuela, as well as Libya, but including Nigeria – with a commitment to reduce production by 1.2 Mb/d relative to October 2018 levels. After a slow start, by the spring of this year, inventories have fallen back to around their five year average once again. It’s tempting to interpret these twists and turns as indicative of OPEC’s waning powers. But I’m not sure that’s the correct interpretation. The role that OPEC+ played in more than offsetting the falls in Iranian and Venezuelan output last year was very significant. For me, the twists and turns simply reflect the difficulty of market management, especially in a world of record supply growth in one part of the world and heightened geopolitical tensions in others. It feels like the rollercoaster will run for some time to come.

De største BNP-landene som ikke står på lista, rangert etter størrelse :
Japan
Tyskland
Frankrike
Italia
Sør Korea
Australia
Spania
Nederland
Tyrkia
Sveits
Polen
Taiwan
Sverige
Belgia
Østerrike
Sør Afrika
(Thailand har litt egen olje)

Folkerike land som ikke er på Topp 29 listen (95,3 % av verdensproduksjonen) :
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Japan
Etiopia
Filipinene
Vietnam
Tyrkia
Thailand
Kongo
Frankrike
Italia
Tanzania
Sudan
Sør Afrika
Burma
Sør Korea
Kenya
Spania
Uganda
Ukraina
Polen
Marokko

Land med liten produksjon i forhold til innbyggertall og BNP :
Kina
India
Indonesia

Ad Norge :
Som det fremgår er det nok en fordel for en rekke europeiske land å ha Norge
som et leverandøralternativ i nærheten. Europa er et av oljemangelområdene
i verden.

Når vi først er i gang kan vi ta med småprodusentene :
30. Thailand 0,49 mb/d
31. Australia 0,36
32. Rep. of Congo 0,33
33. Vietnam 0,28
34. Turkmenistan 0,22
35. Gabon 0,19
36. Equatorial Guinea 0,19
37. Peru 0,15
38. Sør Sudan 0,13
39. Brunai 0,11
40. Danmark 0,11
41. Chad 0,10
42. Italia 0,10
43. Sudan 0,10

Sum 2,86

90,26 + 2,86 = 93,12 (av 94,72 Mb/d) = 98,31 % av verdensproduksjonen. (Sum topp 43)

Dette er lukerativt. 65,70 nå (se f.eks. e24)

OPEC vil trolig fortsette med kuttavtalen
4 timer siden · Erik Steinsbu Wasberg
Medlemmene i oljekartellet OPEC og samarbeidspartnerne vil trolig fortsette avtalen om oljekutt til slutten av 2019, etter at Irak også stiller seg bak Saudi-Arabia og Russland.
Det skriver Reuters.
Ifølge nyhetsbyrået er Iran det eneste store medlemslandet som ennå ikke har gått ut offentlig for å støtte avtalen.
OPEC-landene og Russland har holdt igjen på oljeproduksjonen siden 2017. Reuters skriver at kuttene er på 1,2 millioner fat daglig.
Russlands president Vladimir Putin uttalte i anledning G20-toppmøtet at han hadde avtalt med Saudi-Arabia om å fortsette med avtalen for seks eller ni måneder.
Oljekartellet holder møte i Wien neste uke for å diskutere avtalen.
Irak er enige med Russland og Saudi-Arabia
www.reuters.com

Litt om hvor russisk olje er lokalisert :
http://factsanddetails.com/russia/Education_Health_Transportation_Energy/sub9_6c/entry-5151.html

Ser vi her ja, 66,39.

66,56
Opp 2 $ fra i går kveld.

AU
https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Energi/2019/07/Kraftig-fall-i-oljeprisene