Endelig august🙂Kan melding poppe opp når som helst.Fikk jo fusjonsmeldingen på slutten av dagen forrig gang.Så nå et det bare å vente,før vi endelig blir petronor!

Noen som vet kvartalsresultatet til Petronor?

Apcl leverer vel halvårsrapporten i slutten av august,så kan jo hende vi får tallene fra petronor da.Regner med de er rimelig blå🙂

Har lagt merke til at APCL kursen på Nordnet f.eks før 1.1.2019 kun er halvparten av hva den var. F.eks høyeste i 2017 var 6.10 i kurs. Kan dette ha noe med at hvis warrants slår inn (slik at det blir dobbelt antall APCL aksjer) så er noe blitt gjort for noe for å få den historiske verdien lik for det nye antallet APCL aksjer? Mulig det er en annen grunn som ligger bak, men jeg synes dette var veldig interessant.

Tror ikke vi skal bekymre oss for at skandalen i Senegal får noen konsekvenser, verken for Timis eller oss.

Senegal rules out changing gas contracts amid corruption claims
7/30/2019

MARDID (Bloomberg) - Senegal won’t change already-awarded natural gas contracts despite calls from the country’s political opposition to rework deals in the wake of corruption allegations, according to a government adviser.

In June, a BBC report alleged that President Macky Sall’s brother, Aliou, received payments in return for allowing a little known company to retain two gas concessions.

Neither pressure from politicians nor street protests will lead the government to change those contracts, in which the Senegalese state will gain at least 63% of profits, according to Mamadou Fall Kane, deputy permanent secretary of COS-Petrogaz -- the government committee overseeing oil and gas policies.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/30/senegal-rules-out-changing-gas-contracts-amid-corruption-claims

African Energy Chamber Debunks Senegal Scandal
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
JOHANNESBURG / ACCESSWIRE / July 29, 2019 / The oil and gas industry is well known for being a very capital-intensive industry. The likes of BP, Exxon-Mobil, Saudi Aramco or Shell, routinely make the top-ten of the world’s largest companies by revenue, and the figures can be so strikingly large as to cause confusion from the point of view of the individual. That could have been a possible explanation for the BBC’s Panorama show’s outlandish claim over an alleged USD$10 billion “scandal” taking place in Senegal and involving the highest levels of government and most of the country’s main oil and gas players. It was either that or the sheer necessity to present an over-sensationalized view of the facts for the sake of audience shares, which I liked to believe was beneath such a respected media institution.
If not let’s see. Panorama’s story covers the sale and acquisition of two offshore oil and gas blocks in Senegal by a company named Petro-Tim, an unknown company registered in the Cayman Islands as a subsidiary of another ghost-like global entreprise named PetroAsia resources. Petro-Tim is controlled by Frank Timiș, a Romanian-Australian businessman with a rather cloudy reputation, to put it extremely mildly.
In 2012, former president Abdoulaye Wade and his economy minister Karim Wade approved the deal after allegedly doing some extensive due diligence and assessing the “proven track-record” of PetroAsia, which backed Petro-Tim. Timiș later sold much off its license to Kosmos Energy, another well-known exploration company with an impeccable track-record. After massive natural gas discoveries were made in the company’s two licenses, Timiș sold his remaining shares to global oil company BP for a reported USD$250 million and some undisclosed “royalty concessions”. After some share exchange with Kosmos, today, BP controls an operating 60% stake in the Cayar Offshore Profond and St. Louis Profond licenses, with Kosmos retaining 30% and Petrosen, Senegal’s national oil company, controlling the remaining 10%.
Now, Timiș initial acquisition of the licenses during the Wade administration might have happened under suspicious circumstances, as the BBC alleges, and might certainly be worth investigating, which president Macky Sall has already initiated. That, however, is no reason to demonize the whole of the country’s oil sector and produce false claims that jeopardize the work being done to develop an industry with the potential to bring considerable wealth, jobs and economic development to this impoverished nation.
The Figures
The BBC states that BP paid USD$250 million for Timiș’ share of the two oil licenses, but that besides that hefty figure, Timiș was still entitled, or “could receive” as the narrator tells us, to anywhere between USD$9 and USD$12 billion dollars in royalties, depending on the price per million British terminal unit of natural gas. The reporter decided to round up the figure to USD$10 billion, for no other reason than to make the title of the story more appealing, I believe.
Now, let’s put that figure, which is allegedly to be paid to one single individual, into perspective. Senegal’s annual gross domestic product in 2017 amounted to USD$16.37 billion. From a corporate point of view, BP, which ranks as the world’s seventh biggest company and has operations all across the globe in several different sectors, recorded record profits in 2018, more than doubling its 2017 earnings, at the tune of USD$12.7 billion.
In light of these values, the statement that BP had agreed to pay Timiș the sum of USD$10 billion as royalties for his former minority stake in two non-producing natural gas licenses in Senegal is not only outlandish, it is irresponsible, and reveals a thorough ignorance of how the oil and gas industry functions.
It is somewhat ironic that when, during the half an hour reportage, the BBC journalist shows opposition MP Mamadou Lamine Diallo a sheet of paper with the BP logo featuring what the reporter claims is a scaling payment sheet of royalties due to Timiș (BP has since said it “does not recognise the document shown that referenced these figures”), Mr. Diallo’s reaction is one of disbelief, looking around and repeating the sentence “is this true?” several times. Well, it is a question worth asking, for it can not be true. As BP stated, and industry standards confirm, “the potential royalty figures referred to in the programme are wholly inaccurate and exaggerated beyond the realm of reality”. Whatever royalty agreement it has with Timiș “would be less than one percent of what the Republic of Senegal would receive. And again – very importantly – anything paid would not in any way affect the agreed share received by Senegal”, since it would be paid from BP’s share of profits and does not being stolen from poor Senegalese people, as the story claims.
The Agenda
Further, this report is unfairly damaging on several fronts. It perpetuates an image of inevitable chronic corruption in African business that so many African leaders, including president Macky Sall, having been working hard to reverse by promoting good governance and transparency. It jeopardizes the many efforts made in recent years by the current Senegalese administration to promote the development of an oil and gas industry that could help lift millions out of poverty and bring economic development to the nation. It causes uncertainty for investors and raises political instability.
It also perpetuates the image that the oil industry is inherently destructive for African nations like Senegal, ignoring considerable evidence of the contrary, and smudges the reputation of some of the most regulated companies in the world by accusing them of knowingly supporting corrupt deals when all the information about the deal has been submitted and evaluated by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States and other oversight institutions without raising any flags. Finally, it seeks to attack the work made by president Macky Sall in trying to promote foreign investment and economic development in Senegal.
The Contract
Finally, let us look at the actual contract made between the government of Senegal and the license holders, which the story deems as so damaging for the Senegalese coffers.
First of all, when the initial concession contract was made for these two licenses, Senegal had no relevant commercial oil and gas discoveries at all, particularly in the high-cost deep offshore region. This represents a considerable added risk to investors and is commonly associated with more favourable contract terms than other proven oil regions. Nothing new there. Within this context, the contracts covering the exploration and production of Cayar offshore Profond and Saint-Louis Offshore profond foresee that once first oil or first gas is attained, the operating company can recover up to 75% of its extensive operating costs from the production profits. After costs are paid for the production is divided between the state and the license holders in a scale depending on how much oil or gas is being produced. Within that scale, the Senegalese state receives between 35% and 58% of the production. On top of that, we must consider Petrosen’s 10% participation, which can be expanded, under the contractual conditions, to 20% if there is a discovery. So, at a 20% share, Petrosen could receive between a minimum of 8.4% (20% of 42%) and 13% (20% of 65%) of the production. Once divided, the production kept by the producing companies is taxed as profit by the State at a rate of 25%. To sum it up, the Senegalese state will receive anywhere between 61% and 74.8% of all production coming from these licenses. What the BBC has said to have been described as “the most generous (contract) in the industry”, even though it never said who described it that way, seems very much standard for the region.
Within this framework, it is difficult to understand why this story would be drafted in such sensationalistic terms to involve companies that are well-known for its adherence to anti-corruption and due diligence procedures. It is also strange that the reporters would choose to so blatantly attack political leaders that were not even in power when the deal was done, and that have been responsible for ground-breaking reforms that are already producing benefits for the Senegalese economy.
Senegal is well on its way to become a de facto oil and gas producer by 2022 and with it, billions of dollars will be injected in the Senegalese economy, supporting job creation and economic development in a country that still depends mostly on a non-industrialized agricultural sector. Senegal’s efforts to develop its oil industry and its economy should be supported and lauded by international well-informed observers and not harmed by inaccurate reporting.


https://www.petroleumafrica.com/african-energy-chamber-debunks-senegal-scandal/

Skal vi satse på en tidlig avklaring på fusjonen da,at vi får den til neste uke.Da er vel alle mann på jobb igjen på ose🙂Så kan vi endelig få litt fart i sakene,og forlikene kan komme🚀

Da er Trump ute og lager krøll igjen.

Oil slumps 7% as Trump announces additional tariffs on Chinese imports

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices plummeted more than 7% on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark posting its worst day in more than four years, after President Donald Trump said he would impose additional tariffs Chinese imports starting Sept. 1.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-slips-1-fed-disappoints-011344404.html

Bare rør på han,og ingen grunn til noe oljeprisfall!For det første er det ikke sikkert tollen skal innføres engang,og for det andre var oljelagertallene denne uka meget bra,overreaksjon deluxe 🙂Stoppet ved 60,så det var vel bunnen!Så er det opp igjen til uka,opp og ned

Var vel nede i 59.5 forrig gang han truet med mer toll,så gikk olja opp til 67 igjen,før det nå er en ny runde ned til 60,og sånn går det🙂Uansett så er OPEC en garantist for en grei oljepris på minimum 60!Så ikke så veldig bekymret for Trump sine sprell!

Kjøpsmulighet nå ser det ut som,dager fra fusjon og noen selger pga trump🙂

Ikke mange som ble lurt til å selge lavt.Vært deilig om meldingen lå der på mandag,så vi kan komme i gang med selskapet 🙂Tror det kommer til å skje mye fremover.

Da er olja på vei tilbake for de som fikk panikk i går :)

Oil prices regain ground after overnight plunge on tariffs

ReutersAugust 2, 2019, 3:26 AM GMT+

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices rose around 2% on Friday, regaining ground after the biggest falls in years as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed more tariffs on Chinese imports, intensifying the trade war between the world's two biggest economies and crude consumers.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-steady-trump-trade-012653594.html

Olja opp igjen,som forventet 🙂

Dette gjelder nok ikke Timis men APCL/Petronor og SOSP: «The State is in the process of negotiating...»

https://www.sen360.sn/actualite/scandale-petro-gazier-letat-serait-en-train-de-negocier-un-autre-contrat-avec-timis-selon-aliou-sane-34632/

Oil-Gas Scandal: The State is in the process of negotiating another contract with Timis, according to Aliou Sané

While the controversy is still lively about the conditions in which the blocks Saint-Louis and Kayar Offshores were awarded to Frank Timis, the State of Senegal would be negotiating another contract with the businessman Romanian-Australian . This is at least the revelation made by one of the coordinators of the "Aar Li Nu Bokk" platform, Aliou Sané on the sidelines of this Friday's march.


"There is another contract they (Macky Sall and his regime) want to give Frank Timis," says Aliou Sané calling on Senegalese to remain mobilized in the fight against the spoliation of natural resources.

Takke Beras;
.......og vi kan fylle på med denne:


Today, when we thought we had finished, with this apprentice wizard of African oil, during its ejection, by Macky Sall for the benefit of Total, block Rufisque Offshore Deep
-ROP-.

*Frank Timis resurfaces as owner at 25% of the block ROP and 90% of the block Senegal Offshore South Deep -SOSP-.*

Indeed, on the sale (on March 1, 2019) of 50% of the shares of its company African Petrolium Corpération -APC- to PetroNor, the latter flouts the Norwegian stock market with this acquisition. *PetroNor is 50% owned by the Abu Dhabi royal family (the world's 8th largest oil producing country with more than 3 million barrels / day)* and 50% owned by private Norwegians.

PetroNor considers having the oil concession of ROP and SOSP in Senegal belonging to APC
(Figures 1 and 2)

- Figure 1 - Cartography of Senegal on blocks, permits that dates from October 2018

- Figure 2 - This table summarizes all the exploitation and research concessions given to Africa Petrolium Cooperation -APC- (owned by Franck Timis) by the governments of A.Wade and Macky Sall. All related documents (decrees, reports) mentioned and traced, you can find on the EITI Senegal or Norway site.
At the sale of 50% of the shares of the company APC for a value of 56 billion CFA francs, Frank Timis pocketed the sum of 12 billion CFA francs as principal shareholder.

This information given in priority by BENGELLOUN, during the Constitutive GA of the association Article 25, which is a collective citizen of Senegalese of France for the defense and the safeguarding of the natural resources, had a favorable echo on the side of Norway .

Indeed, *a Norwegian investigative journalist specializing in oil from African countries, contacted the president of the Article 25 collective through the editor of the online news magazine infoquinze.*

Not only the investigative reporter:
*- confirms the information disclosed*, at the meeting of the association on the acquisition of the half of the capital of the company APC by PetrNor (Figure 5):

- Figure 5 - Acquisition of 50% of the shares of APC (Africa Petrolium Corporation) by PetroNor.

*- he reminds that the next face to face before the arbitral tribunal between the new structure: AFRICA PETROLIEUM - PETRONOR and the state of Senegal, will be decisive for the ROP and SOSP* licenses wrested from the APC company.
- It gives a crucial information, namely, the discovery of oil on the site of ROP, by TOTAL, which is allied with Petronas, a Malaysian company in the conduct of research on the block Rufisque Offshore Deep -ROP-.
*It also indicates the termination of the work of TOTAL, which is aware of the litigation and risks of losing the block ROP, prefers to suspend its work.*

recall
- the first official visit of President Macky Sall to Abu D'Abi after this travesty of elections in February 2019,
- That of the crown prince of Abu D'Abi in Senegal in July 2019 by offering Senegal an infrastructure (which will bear his name) worth 10 billion CFA francs.
- the official visit of the President Gambian Mr Barow in mid-March 2019 in Abu D'Abi.
Recall that Frank Timis with his company APC holds two wells A2 and A4 at 100%.
(Figures 3 and 6)

- Figure 3 - PetroNor's assertions about its block concessions in Senegal and The Gambia

- Figure 6 - PetroNor's acquisitions in Senegal and The Gambia.

These interventions of PetroNor, through the 8th world producer country confirm if necessary:
- Abu Abi's pressure on Senegal and The Gambia. (Figure 4)

- Figure 4 - PetroNor's holdings in Nigeria, Congo, Senegal, Gambia ...
- the inconsistencies displayed on the Senegal allocation map of permits for the ROP and SOSP blocks.
(Figure 1)'

https://www.reseaunews.com/franck-timiss-toujours-maitre-de-notre-petrole-et-de-notre-gaz.html

På nytt nevnes 25% ROP med den "største selvfølgelighet", og merk også denne.

*It also indicates the termination of the work of TOTAL, which is aware of the litigation and risks of losing the block ROP, prefers to suspend its work.*

Det er igjen en artikkel som blander inn Timis i APCL, men det er mye interessant der, og fra en eller annen plass(kilde) må det jo komme fra.

Begynner det vel å bli mer enn nok info/spekulasjoner,som tyder på at petronor har fikset avtaler i senegal🙂!Jeg har aldri vært i tvil og får flere og flere bekreftelser på at dette går veien💰Dette blir meget morro/lønnsomt fremover,for de som har aksjer her da🙂

Er ganske sikker på at Sosp lisensen gir gode forutsetninger får Petronor, er mer usikker på Rop, håper selvsagt på en liten del .. Singnaleffekt til løsning får Gambia lisenser blir betydelig, bare vent..

Måtte bare legge ut denne linjen også(måtte bare sjekke om dere leste hele innlegget godt nok;))

«It gives a crucial information, namely, *the discovery of oil on the site of ROP*, by TOTAL.....»

Her er det bare å spekulere i vei....

....hvorfor ble det stop noen uker, var den BOP’en skadet, eller var det «andre årsaker». Jeg vet ikke, jeg bare leser det jeg leser og spekulerer derfra.

Jeg er i alle fall 100% overbevist om at det for oss var ett sjakktrekk «å bli kjøpt opp» av PetroNor. Det kan se ut som om JP vil kunne få sine gjentatte formaninger «gjennomført»

Veldig enig, Warom 🤝.

Og vi husker vel alle hva JP sa da det ble spurt om hvorfor rop ikke var med i warrentsprogrammet,og drillingen til total🙂Så nesten ut som det allerede der var en løsning på disse lisensene!

Jeg «tilter» om Total gjør funn og vi er med på ROP( jeg er nok i så fall ikke den eneste;)) ROP lot jeg ligge allerede i april-17, men det har tydeligvis ikke JP & Co gjort(noe de forsåvidt har kommunisert lenge nå) For meg har det kun vært en «leverage» for SOSP, men om det skulle vise seg å bli annerledes så....(viser til andre ord i innlegget;))

PP(Det er en person på FB siden til APCL)
Det er hyggelig at du legger ut(dvs kopierer) stort sett alle innlegg(i alle fall fra meg) over til FB siden, men....

....du kan nå i alle fall linke til det, dvs hvor du har dette i fra når du legger ut der. En ting er å ta en link til en artikkel og gjøre en egen tekst ut av det(helt fint) men å bruke hele teksten(dvs mine tanker og kommentarer) som om den er din egen er vel ikke «helt greit». De som ikke leser HO/XI(mange svensker og dansker) tar dette som dine egne ord(de spør sågar hva dine tanker rundt dette er)

Jeg er stor tilhenger av å spre det jeg selv anser som gode innlegg(noe jeg også gjør) men det blir litt som på skolen....kilder burde med(og du husker sikkert hva som skjedde om man ikke hadde det)

Jeg beklager, men jeg har sett dette i laaaang tid fra spesielt deg på FB siden, og akkurat nå følte jeg for å si i fra(regner med du tåler den).

Kommer vel når fusjonen er i boks,og styrelederen i petronor hintet jo om positive nyheter så fort fusjonen var i orden.Kan jo se ut som det kan stemme🙂Så er vel på tide at det begynner og prises inn et forlik her.Men det kommer nok med full styrke den dagen fusjonen meldes!Så kan få et kraftig hopp fra dagens kurs.Forlik burde kjøre aksjen over 2kr,så når fusjonen meldes og mange da regner med forlik,kan vi nok komme over 1.5kr.Iallfall nå,hvor vi får flere og flere hint om at petronor sannsynligvis har ordnet noe i senegal🙂Så kommer Gambia etter.VIPPS,og vi er på 3kr!!

Kommer mest sannsynlig rett i etterkant av fusjonen 🤝

Takker for meget god info, warom og beras. APCL, høstens eventyr........?

Fortsatt god helg :)

Henger meg på tuja sitt takkekort, mange gode informative innlegg fra dyktige skribenter. ..

Har fått enda større tro på warrants utløses med all info som har kommet den siste tiden, er ganske sikker på at disse blir slukt i ett jafs, da vi vil se en helt annent investor klientel med tykk lommebok..

Men blir man lykkeligere?

Bare tulla!

Har også meget stor tro på dette nå🙂Må vi huske på at apcl,en stund før fusjonen ble kjent,sa at potensielle partnere posisjonerte seg,hvis apcl skulle beholde noen lisenser.Og at apcl var klare til å reagere kjapt om de fikk sjansen.Så ikke tvil om at det minste problemet vil bli å finne noen som vil farme in.Hvis ikke det allerede er klart,når/hvis forliket kommer🙂Og er jo litt rart at det nå plutselig "lekker" mer og mer info ut,når vi er så nærme fusjonen.Dette har petronor fikset,og sjansene for jackpot med warrentene er veldig stor!

Leste en spennende studie flue,hvor alle klasser i samfunnet ble spurt om hva som gjør dem lykkelige.. Gode relasjoner og minner vant i særklasse, penger ,aksjer og andre aktiva var bare tall og singnaturer... så du er inne på en spennende tema..

Ja. Det er nok riktig for mange når man kommer over en viss grense.

Forøvrig synes jeg at det er litt rart at ikke Total melder til aksjonærer om problemene de hadde med BOP. Jo, det er jo riktig at store selskap ikke melder i hytt og pine, men dette påvirker jo hele det kommende programmet deres. Det ble jo annonsert. Petronas skulle vel ha riggen i Mauritania i juli i følge rigg status rapporten til Pacific Drilling. Den er imidlertid ikke oppdatert etter april og raten er ikke oppgitt. Petronas vil forøvrig ha en dagrate på 296 000 USD så dette blir det penger av.

Kan det være slik at Total istedenfor å fortsette programmet som de har forstått ikke går nå borer et sidesteg? Da har de isåfall gjort er funn.

Bare en tanke. Ihvertfall har jeg ingen tro på at de saboterer sin egen boring for å oppnå noe. Det vil koste dem mye både i penger og goodwill fra deres aksjonærer.

Det kan være en mulighet flue, tror mer på at det handler om ICSID prosessen (ingen ting er avklart) ang Rop /Sosp lisenser det nye selskapet Petronor og diverse møter med Vest Afrikanske myndigheter... så har vi diverse artikler ang lisensene ...

Om vi tenker framover og vi er del i disse lisensene samt at de er drivverdig , så snakker vi fort 4-5år før oljen er på dekk. De må gjennom DG0 til DG4.

Alternativt så kan de belage seg på en eksisterende FPSO (leasing eg Balder løsning ) , dette hadde vært den raskeste vei til olje på dekk, men krever at reservoaret stemmer overens med prosess betingelsene til FPSOen. Om det er behov for injeksjonsutstyr for økt utvinningsgrad så krever dette litt forarbeid .

FF , du har nok noen tanker om utstyret / løsning , hva tror du?

Nå spør du vanskelig. konseptet blir vel helt avhengig av hva de finner. Er det et relativt lite funn blir det nok en FPSO- løsning ala SNE-feltet.

Imidlertid er brønnen som bores nærme Dakar hvor det er oljeraffineri. Terskelen for å ilandføre via rørledning blir selvsagt mindre da.

Når det gjelder tiden fram til eventuell «first oil» så er jo den veldig varierende. På SNE som ble funnet i 2014 går de for «first oil» i 2022. Da har det altså gått 8 år.

Var forresten inne på FAR sin hjemmeside. Noen husker sikkert brønnen de boret på FAN south som strekker seg over på A1 i Gambia. Attogfrem konkluderte vel nærmest med at det ikke var kommersielt, men jeg registrerer at FAR ikke har gitt opp. Fra siste presentasjon:

«In addition to the appraisal of the SNE field, FAR and it’s JV partners have made two more discoveries offshore Senegal with the FAN South-1 and SNE North-wells drilled in 2017. These discoveries, along with FAN-1 are yet to be appraised but demonstrate the prolific oil bearing nature of the source rocks in the basin»

Det er alfor til å spekulerer hva som skjer på ROP ved en eventuell utbygging. Inntil videre er det å holde posisjonen samt finne olje som er det vi skal konsentrere oss om. Med andre ord slik det nødvendigvis har vært lenge