FRO. NORDEA SELL. TARGET 25 KR
Frontline Ltd
Norway, Shipping and Transportation
Business description
Frontline traces its origins to Frontline AB, which was founded in 1985. Frontline
is one of the world’s largest tanker companies, engaged in the seaborne
transportation of crude oil and oil products. The company operates in three
segments: very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax tankers and Aframax LR2
vessels. The vessels are either owned by the company, under the company’s
commercial management or chartered in on a lease.
Investment case
Freight rates for crude oil tankers remain under pressure amid a sharply rising
crude oil tanker fleet and cuts in OPEC production.
Product tanker freight rates have similarly come down lately and we expect
them to remain under pressure, as stock levels are high and high fleet growth
for crude carriers is trickling down.
Demand is being negatively impacted by the OPEC cuts, reduced import growth
to China and India and about zero growth elsewhere. We expect freight rates
and thus earnings to remain under pressure.
Main risks
Key upside risks: Increased US exports of crude oil and rapid import growth to
China and India combined with high scrapping.
Estimate and valuation changes
We make few changes to our rate estimates, but adjust depreciations and
interest expenses. We lower our NAV-based target price to NOK 25 (26).
Sell
Target Price NOK 25.00
Fair Value NOK 25.75
Share price (close) NOK 31.34
MSCI ESG rating B
Norway, Shipping and Transportation
Business description
Frontline traces its origins to Frontline AB, which was founded in 1985. Frontline
is one of the world’s largest tanker companies, engaged in the seaborne
transportation of crude oil and oil products. The company operates in three
segments: very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax tankers and Aframax LR2
vessels. The vessels are either owned by the company, under the company’s
commercial management or chartered in on a lease.
Investment case
Freight rates for crude oil tankers remain under pressure amid a sharply rising
crude oil tanker fleet and cuts in OPEC production.
Product tanker freight rates have similarly come down lately and we expect
them to remain under pressure, as stock levels are high and high fleet growth
for crude carriers is trickling down.
Demand is being negatively impacted by the OPEC cuts, reduced import growth
to China and India and about zero growth elsewhere. We expect freight rates
and thus earnings to remain under pressure.
Main risks
Key upside risks: Increased US exports of crude oil and rapid import growth to
China and India combined with high scrapping.
Estimate and valuation changes
We make few changes to our rate estimates, but adjust depreciations and
interest expenses. We lower our NAV-based target price to NOK 25 (26).
Sell
Target Price NOK 25.00
Fair Value NOK 25.75
Share price (close) NOK 31.34
MSCI ESG rating B
Haussegutten
29.05.2018 kl 09:26
3005
Har noen gjort noen estimater om hvordan Q1 kommer til å se ut nå på torsdag 31/5? Med ratene som har vært så frykter jeg dessverre det værste. Det som kanskje blir mest spennende er å se hvor mye av Q2 som er booket og til hvilken snittrate, for det er jo i slutten av Q1 og inn i Q2 at bunnen falt ut av markedet.
Personlig forventer jeg den sedvanlige dippen når tallene slippes på torsdag og både RSI og MACD har også ganske ekstreme verdier akkurat nå.
Personlig forventer jeg den sedvanlige dippen når tallene slippes på torsdag og både RSI og MACD har også ganske ekstreme verdier akkurat nå.
Haussegutten
31.05.2018 kl 08:53
2657
Ser nå at hele 78% av Q2 er solgt til snittinntekt på 11.600. Det er jo 50% under break-even og lover heller ikke godt for Q2-tallene. Klarer ikke få meg til å si at dette nå går riktig retning, for mye som må på plass før jeg mener at markedet er sunt. Får se hvordan markedet reagerer på tallene, for har jo vært mye oppgang siste ukene.
Det må være noe galt med min forstand her: jeg kom til at det var lurt å kjøpe før Q1, og hoppet lystelig inn.
I dag ser dette veldig lurt ut :-)
Så spørs det om det holder seg?
Er så rusten på stortank nå (har ikke vært aktiv der siden forrige gang FRO rallyet) at jeg ikke har klare synspunkter på om jeg bør sikre gevinst nå, eller sitte etter mer?
I dag ser dette veldig lurt ut :-)
Så spørs det om det holder seg?
Er så rusten på stortank nå (har ikke vært aktiv der siden forrige gang FRO rallyet) at jeg ikke har klare synspunkter på om jeg bør sikre gevinst nå, eller sitte etter mer?