Joakim er engasjert og dyktig. Tar alltid med hans betraktninger for å gjøre opp egne meninger. Synes det blir spennende og se hvor vi peaker for året. Tradisjonelt mellom 5. august og 12. september en gang. Men dette året kan neppe sammenliknes med et vanlig år. IMO2020, BTW og at Vales sakte men sikkert kommer tilbake, kan føre til meget høye rater fremover. Vales forøvrig med høyere sikkerhet enn noen gang i sine gruver.

Vi går en spennende høst i møte.(og ja, jernmalmlagrene i China sank også ytterligere forrige uke :-))

Takker Kjepet, interessant. Hva betyr BTW?

Sorry, skal stå BWT (ballast water treatment). Som skal være implementer senest 1. Oktober i år for å følge IMOs regler.

Takk. Gogl har blitt min største post. Tror vi kan se konturene av noe virkelig bra nå. Og dette er uten en handelsavtale, som nok er det som fortsatt holder kursen på et veldig edruelig nivå. Blir bonanza hvis de langsiktige bekymringene løses og kursen skal ta igjen ratene.

Hvad vil det betyde for tørlast og GOGL hvis olie kommer op i 150.?


Ser på olieprisen på $ 150 i væbnede Mellemøsten konflikt
36 minutter siden· André Haugen
Uroen i den Persiske Golf og konflikten mellem USA og Iran kan have stor indflydelse på oliepriserne.
Commodity Manager Helima Croft i RBC Capital Markets fortalte CNBC på torsdag, at hvis atomkonventionen dør, og Iran passerer sit berigningsniveau for uran med 20 procent, vil det betydeligt øge sandsynligheden for en væbnet konflikt i regionen.
"En faktisk militærkonfrontation eller endda begrænsede militære kampe kan midlertidigt øge priserne," sagde Croft.
Kanalen peger også på en note fra kapitaløkonomien i sidste uge, hvor analysen skrev, at en fuldskala krig sandsynligvis vil sende prisen hurtigt op til $ 150 pr. Tønde.
20 millioner tønder olie produceres hver dag i den persiske golf. En konflikt kan få Hormuz-stredet til at lukke, hvor en tredjedel af verdens oliefragt passerer.
Olieanalytikere påpeger dog, at skiferolietræet i USA og et mindre behov for olie til Den Persiske Golf end tidligere, nok er nok for det internationale marked til at sænke priserne igen, ifølge CNBC.

Etter min ringe forståelse er det de langsiktige vekstforventningene, eller mangel på sådanne, som holder tørrlastaksjer tilbake. Handelsuro er negativt og olje på 150 vil også være negativt for nesten alt annet enn oljeaksjer og den norske stat.

Vi går en flott tid i møte, re prisingen har endelig startet, men fortsatt stor oppside ivertfall til mitt kursmål som er kr. 105,-.

Som Kjepet skriver og som analysen er inne på befinner vi oss ikke i et normalt marked/sesong, der ratene vanligvis når toppen om 2-4 uker. Stikkord Kina, et enormt etterslep etter Vale samt innstalering av scrubbere. Så har vi handelsavtalen som den store bonusen. Ha en riktig god børsuke alle sammen, nyter gode dager på ferie i Florida :-)

Spørsmål: Når capene seiler med Cape index, forandrer ratene seg under turen eller seiler de med den raten som de har når turen starter?

Ditt kursmål ? Kepler kom også ut med kursmål 105.

Dessuten så er det å basere investeringene sine på kursmål bare tull å vas. Aksjemarkedet er dynamisk, ikke statisk. Man må alltid forholde seg til endringer, hvis ikke forsvinner alt over tid.

62kr på fredag. Jeg er lastet til ripa med gogl og sdrl!

Ganske utrolig at kursen fortsatt ligger under toppen i januar (for året), når ratene gjør at pengene renner inn i kassa i strie strømmer :-)

Kjepet - ja du tror det ikke,... før du opplever det :-)

Dog klatrer vi sakte men sikkert oppover, i morgen skal vi endelig over 60 igjen, tror jeg.

Jeg vedder imot.

Hilsen staingen

Husk også på at volumet har stagnert de siste dagene med oppgang.

Samme bevegelsesmønster sist gang også - tenker utbytte setter i gang farten - ville ikke overraske om resultatgjennomgangen fremskyndes som gjort tidligere - Gogl er svært sen med ordinær dato for fremleggelse.

Bare lurer specc. Sitter du short, eller daytrader du? Husker du skrev «endelig nedgang» 5. juli i år. De øvrige kommentarene dine peker også for en shortposisjon.

Nei, jeg sitter middel-long. Kjøpte en post i Mai. Grunnen til jeg sier at jeg synes det var godt med en nedgang, er fordi jeg følte for den trengte det til videre oppgang.

Den er god specc. Godt å høre at du også har satset pengene dine på kursstigning fremover :-)

Tror den lave omsetningen skyldes ferietid. Skjer det samme hvert år i Juli. Kun 3,1 mrd på børsen totalt i dag. Kursen løfter seg om enten BDI holder seg på slike nivåer fremover, Q2 og guiding kommer inn bedre enn antatt eller nyheter fra Kina/ USA eller handelskrigen får en løsning. Også usikkert hvor stor effekt IMO har å si og prising på drivstoff frem mot og etter nyttår. Tror det kan nli positivt for dem som har installert scrubbere. Tror et kursfall blir svært moderat om det kommer og kursen kan fort snu og skyte fart.
Se bare på Sblk, opp over 7% i USA så langt i dag. Kan godt bli Gogl som får et slikt byks om markedet ser stor divergens i prisingen i forhold til liknende selskaper. Lykke til alle Gogl aksjonærer 😊

Riktig.

Alt svinger og det er naturen i markedet. Om den plutselig faller til 50kr igjen, så skal den opp igjen.

Momentumet er svært høyt nå. Langt over 0. RSI på 77, noe som tilsier oversolgt, etter teorien. Så kan nok forvente å se et lite fall før det eksploderer videre.

-Vale 2Q iron ore production 64.1 million mt, estimate 74.6 million mt
-Vale 2Q iron ore sales 61.9 million mt, -15% y/y
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

The freight futures market remains quite skeptical of the recent rally in Capesize spot rates: despite a 20% increase week-over-week in the average spot index, the September contract has stayed flat over the last week, now at 35% + discount to the index.
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

Det er omvendt, indexen er laget fra ratene. Båtene blir hyret inn til en pris for en tur. Så sjekker BDI-folkene prisen for et utvalg ruter og lager cape indexen fra det.

BULK:4 CAPESIZE-SPOTSLUTNINGER MANDAG -ARROW

06:55
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om fire capesize-spotslutninger mandag, der samtlige er for jernmalmfrakt.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.

Samtlige reiser ble sluttet for Kina, der to går fra Brasil og to går fra Australia.

Ellers ble det gjort en timecharterreise.

Baltic Exchanges capesize-indeks steg foregående handelsdag 0,6 prosent til 32.963 dollar.

LK finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed

Scorpio Bulkers Inc. Reports Lower Second Quarter Results
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 23/07/2019


Scorpio Bulkers Inc. reported its results for the three months ended June 30, 2019.

The Company also announced that, its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share on the Company’s common shares.

Results for the Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2019 and 2018

For the second quarter of 2019, the Company’s GAAP net income was $35.0 million, or $0.50 per diluted share, including:

a non-cash gain of approximately $52.6 million and cash dividend income of $0.5 million, or $0.77 earnings per diluted share, primarily from the Company’s equity investment in Scorpio Tankers Inc.;
a write-down of assets held for sale of approximately $5.2 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, related to the classification of two Ultramax vessels as held for sale, and the write-off of deferred financing costs on the credit facilities related to the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco; and
the write-off of deferred financing costs of approximately $2.7 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, related to the refinancing of existing debt.
For the same period in 2018, the Company’s GAAP net income was $0.8 million, or $0.01 per diluted share.



Total vessel revenues for the second quarter of 2019 were $49.1 million, compared to $60.6 million for the same period in 2018. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) for the second quarters of 2019 and 2018 were $65.2 million and $28.1 million, respectively.

For the second quarter of 2019, the Company’s adjusted net income was $40.1 million, or $0.58 adjusted earnings per diluted share, which excludes the impact of the write-down of assets held for sale of $4.7 million and the write-off of deferred financing costs on the credit facilities relating to the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco of $0.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2019 was $70.0 million. There were no such non-GAAP adjustments to net income in the second quarter of 2018 (see Non-GAAP Financial Measures below).

For the first half of 2019, the Company’s GAAP net income was $31.5 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, including:

a non-cash gain of approximately $67.6 million and cash dividend income of $1.0 million, or $0.99 earnings per diluted share, primarily from the Company’s equity investment in Scorpio Tankers Inc.;
a write-down of assets held for sale of approximately $12.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, related to the sale of the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco and the write-off of deferred financing costs on the credit facilities related to such vessels, as well as the classification of two Ultramax vessels as held for sale; and
the write-off of deferred financing costs of approximately $2.7 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, related to the refinancing of existing debt.
For the same period in 2018, the Company’s GAAP net loss was $5.0 million, or $0.07 loss per diluted share.

Total vessel revenues for the first half of 2019 were $99.4 million, compared to $114.9 million for the same period in 2018. EBITDA for the first halves of 2019 and 2018 were $90.6 million and $48.4 million, respectively (see Non-GAAP Financial Measures below).

For the first half of 2019, the Company’s adjusted net income was $44.2 million, or $0.64 adjusted earnings per diluted share, which excludes the impact of the write-down of assets either sold or held for sale of $12.2 million and the write-off of deferred financing costs on the credit facilities relating to the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco of $0.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2019 was $102.8 million. There were no such non-GAAP adjustments to net income in the first half of 2018 (see Non-GAAP Financial Measures below).

TCE Revenue

TCE Revenue Earned during the Second Quarter of 2019 (see Non-GAAP Financial Measures)

Our Kamsarmax fleet earned an average of $10,830 per day
Our Ultramax fleet earned an average of $8,993 per day
Voyages Fixed thus far for the Third Quarter of 2019, as of the date hereof

Kamsarmax fleet: approximately $12,656 per day on average for 42% of the days
Ultramax fleet: approximately $9,603 per day on average for 42% of the days
Cash and Cash Equivalents

As of July 19, 2019, the Company had approximately $160.0 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Recent Significant Events

Vessel Sales

In June 2019, the Company completed the sale of the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco, two 2015 Chinese built Kamsarmax vessels that the Company agreed to sell in March 2019, for approximately $48.0 million in aggregate. The Company recorded a loss of approximately $7.8 million, including the write-off of deferred financing costs, during the first half of 2019.

During the second quarter of 2019, the Company’s Board of Directors made the decision to sell two Ultramax vessels and as such these vessels were classified as held for sale at June 30, 2019. The Company recorded a loss of approximately $4.9 million in the second quarter of 2019 and expects to write-off deferred financing costs of $0.2 million upon closing of the sale and repaying the outstanding debt.

Dividend

In the second quarter of 2019, the Company’s Board of Directors declared and the Company paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share totaling approximately $1.4 million.

On July 22, 2019, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, payable on or about September 13, 2019, to all shareholders of record as of August 15, 2019. As of July 22, 2019, 72,487,958 shares were outstanding.

Debt

Senior Unsecured Notes Due September 2019

In July 2019, the Company issued a notice of redemption for the entire outstanding balance of its 7.5% Senior Unsecured Notes due September 2019 of $73,625,000 (the “Senior Notes Due September 2019”) to be redeemed on August 2, 2019 (the “Redemption Date”). The redemption price of the Senior Notes Due September 2019 is equal to 100% of the principal amount to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the Redemption Date. A notice of redemption was distributed to all registered holders of the Senior Notes Due September 2019 by Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas.

CMBFL Lease Financing

In May 2019, the Company closed a financing transaction with CMB Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. involving the sale and leaseback of three Ultramax vessels (SBI Pegasus, SBI Subaru and SBI Ursa) and four Kamsarmax vessels (SBI Lambada, SBI Macarena, SBI Carioca and SBI Capoeira). As part of this transaction, the Company has agreed to bareboat charter-in the vessels for a period of seven years. In addition, the Company has purchase options beginning after the end of the third year of each bareboat charter agreement. The Company also has a purchase option for each vessel upon the expiration of each bareboat charter agreement.

$45.0 Million Lease Financing – SBI Virgo and SBI Libra

In May 2019, the Company closed a financing transaction with an unaffiliated third party involving the sale and leaseback of the SBI Virgo and SBI Libra for a consideration of $21.0 million each. As part of this transaction, the Company has agreed to bareboat charter-in the vessels for a period of eleven years and will have purchase options beginning after the end of the fourth year of each bareboat charter agreement.

$85.5 Million Credit Facility

During May 2019, the Company prepaid approximately $27.6 million of its $85.5 Million Credit Facility and wrote off approximately $0.3 million of deferred financing costs as part of the refinancing of the two vessels now financed by the $45.0 Million Lease Financing – SBI Virgo and SBI Libra.

AVIC Lease Financing

In April 2019, the Company agreed to sell and leaseback six Ultramax vessels (SBI Antares, SBI Bravo, SBI Hydra, SBI Leo, SBI Lyra and SBI Maia) to AVIC International Leasing Co., Ltd. As part of this transaction, the Company has agreed to bareboat charter-in the vessels for a period of eight years and will have purchase options beginning after the end of the second year of each bareboat charter agreement. The Company also has a purchase option for each vessel upon the expiration of each bareboat charter agreement.

The Company closed the transaction with regards to the SBI Antares, SBI Bravo and SBI Leo in June 2019 and with regards to the SBI Hydra, SBI Lyra and SBI Maia in July 2019.

$330.0 Million Credit Facility

During May 2019, the Company prepaid approximately $74.8 million of its $330.0 Million Credit Facility and wrote off approximately $1.2 million of deferred financing costs as part of the refinancing of the seven vessels now financed by the CMBFL Lease Financing.

During June and July 2019, the Company prepaid approximately $29.1 million and $30.9 million, respectively, of its $330.0 Million Credit Facility and wrote off deferred financing costs of approximately $0.3 million and $0.4 million, respectively, as part of the refinancing of the six vessels now financed by the AVIC Lease Financing.

$60.0 Million Credit Facility

During June 2019, the Company prepaid approximately $28.7 million of its $60.0 Million Credit Facility and wrote off approximately $0.4 million of deferred financing costs as part of the sale of the SBI Electra and SBI Flamenco.

Vessels Time Chartered-In

The Company time chartered-in four Kamsarmax vessels, for approximately 24 to 27 months.

Three vessels were initially time chartered-in at rates tied to the Baltic Exchange’s 74,000 DWT Panamax Index (“BPI”), (two at 118% of the BPI and one at 120% of the BPI). The daily base rate in respect of one vessel was subsequently converted from 118% of the BPI to a fixed rate of $14,170 per day effective July 2019. As of June 30, 2019, two of the vessels were delivered to the Company and the third is expected to be delivered to the Company between July and August of 2019. The Company simultaneously time chartered these vessels

Ekspansjonen uteblir idag. Går det mot rød indeks?

Det er godt mulig BDI er flat eller går litt ned i dag, men det er ingen tvil om at den er veldig høy om dagen og lite som tyder på at den skal bratt ned med det første. I dagens Finansavisen står analytiker Joakim Hannisdahl og sier han aldri har vært mer bull på shipping, og nevner bl.a. Golden Ocean som en av sine favorittaksjer. Mitt inntrykk er at det alltid står noen store aktører klare til å selge aksjer i GOGL og ta aksjer fra småfisk på stoploss og frykt.. Tipper dette bør være en grei anledning til å kjøpe seg inn for de som fortsatt står på sidelinjen!

He, he. Ja, en kan henge seg på Trygves anbefaling om å holde seg unna shipping og bulk i 2-3 år fremover. Dette sa han i sin egen sending 8. mars i år. Da sådde han også tvil om JF sin shippingkompetanse. Da sto kursen i 41.-

Star Bulk banket opp nesten 7% i går i US, Gogl svarer med 3% nedgang i dag. Dette er helt uforklarlige fenomener som har skjedd utallige ganger i Gogl. Å trade dette er risikosport, men i det lange løp går det seg til.

Kina-Cape ned 3,26 % idag.

Velkommen tilbake.

Ta det med ro, individ aksjer i samme sektor kan være forskjellige. Det på grunn av forskjellige investorerer og hus.

Man må tåle at det svinger hvis ikke mister man alt over tid. Aksjer stiger ikke uendelig.

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -2,7% TIL USD 32.078/DAG

12:01
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 2,7 prosent til 32.078 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange tirsdag.

TDN Direkt finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed

Da solgte jeg på 58,4 og tok en pen gevinst.
Venter på neste ingang på 55 som er en solid støtte.

Da solgte jeg på 58,4 og tok en pen gevinst.
Venter på neste ingang på 55 som er en solid støtte.

Freight futures am update
Capesize down ~5%
Panamax down ~5%
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

BULK:BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -1,2% TIL 2.165 POENG

14:00
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 1,2 prosent til 2.165 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange tirsdag.

Baltic Dry -1,2%

Capesize -2,7%

Panamax +0,8%

Handysize +1,4%

Supramax +1,4%

Pælma ut alt kl 0900. Orker ikke å sitte ned til 50lappen. Blir sdrl og scanship i mellomtiden.

Systemet vil kjøre denne litt ned nå. Men opp igjen det skal den før vi aner det

træida inn 297 nye aksjer idag 👍 kunne blitt over 600 hadde en hatt litt mer is i magen 😁


• Volatility to persist, we expect an impressive spot market in Q4 – We anticipate a very volatile freight rate environment over the next 12 months with short term spikes reaching impressive levels versus recent history. Our confidence level is high due to the fact that the reasons for the recent strength in rates will likely persist for several quarters. In addition, any potential improvement in demand due to better economic factors (lower interest rates, China stimulus, etc.) should further strengthen the demand side.