Neppe.
Men jeg kan ta feil-

Er du talblind?

Gået fra 12.400 til 11.300. Sidste gang 400k og denne gang 700k.
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Jeg er en trollmann med tall. Det er grunnen til at jeg slik jeg er.

Det undrer mig meget, at man ikke omtaler et sådant fald. Det er kun lagre man taler om, det andet er efter min mening meget vigtigere.
https://aksjelive.e24.no/article/jdgkV9

Her er det første jeg har set omkring faldet i shale oil. Iflg CNN
Caterpillar said sales for oil-and gas-related equipment were down 11%, in part because of "lower demand for new equipment in the Permian Basin."

That's notable, because the Permian Basin is one of the hotbeds of the US shale gas revolution, an oil production boom that has helped America become less reliant on OPEC to meet its energy needs.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/24/investing/caterpillar-earnings-us-china-trade-war/index.html

Er der virkelig ingen, der vil knytte en kommentar til dette faktum: Caterpillar said sales for oil-and gas-related equipment were down 11%, in part because of "lower demand for new equipment in the Permian Basin."

That's notable, because the Permian Basin is one of the hotbeds of the US shale gas revolution, an oil production boom that has helped America become less reliant on OPEC to meet its energy needs.

Jeg mener det et vink med en vognstang, sammen holdt med et faldt i produktionen på 1,1 mio. tønder, de seneste 2 uger.

The EIA projects that U.S. shale oil will continue to grow for most of the next decade. Should it falter sooner -- while global demand continues to grow at >1 million BPD -- then we shall see a return to higher oil prices.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/07/21/permian-basin-oil-production-growth-is-falling-fast/#4169e6fc5f48

Samme svaret du fikk på en annen tråd...
Veksten i shale oil tenderer til å avta i Texas, og fortsetter dette vil ikke bare oljeprisen stige men riggene for tradisjonell oljeleting vil komme tilbake og det blir mer jobb for oljeservicebedriftene igjen.

Qec må få gang i Québec! Da skal du se verden får oljen og gass:)

Nu er det ikke EIA, der bestemmer hvor meget der bliver produceret. Antal rigge er faldet med ca. 100 på et år. De små selskaber kan ikke betjene gælden og kan ikke betale for nye rigge. Der skal komme højere oliepris, inden der bliver udbygning. De næste uger bliver spændende.

De har vel sygd opp væske fra undergrunnen i Texas i over hundre år så det må vel begynne å surkle der snart...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-record-bottlenecks-analysis/too-much-oil-texas-boom-outpaces-supply-transport-networks-idUSKCN1MC1CE
Smaller producers without contracts to use pipelines are getting hurt most because they are forced to use trucks and railcars. Shipping oil by truck to Gulf Coast refinery and export hubs costs $15 to $25 a barrel, compared to $8 to $12 a barrel by rail and less than $4 a barrel by pipeline, according to market sources.

https://time.com/5492648/permian-oil-boom-west-texas/
A carbon price is just one way to manage the boom that struck the Permian. And whether you see the boom as a testament to human ingenuity, a threat to civilization or maybe a little of both, it needs to be managed.

....eller det blir et gigantisk earthquake.

Spændende at se, hvornår der kommer en reaktion fra EIA, eller man bare lukker øjnene og håber ingen opdager at produktionen falder ;-)

Equinor ASA er snart ned 5 % i USA så det ser ikke ut som de har oppdaget dette enda :-) he he

Det er så hentet ind igen. For at vende tilbage til spørgsmålet om USA`s produktion, så ser vi igen færre rigge. Igennem det sidste halve år, eller mere, har vi set fald, og år til år ligger faldet mellem 80 og 100 rigge. At EIA ikke reagerer på dette er efter min mening mærkeligt.

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/static-files/c1ca9b94-9cc7-41c3-8118-9bd6620940c3

Flere og flere signaler om at ståa i US Shale ikke er som de fleste later til å tro:

Andrew Gould, former BG chairman and chairman CEO of Schlumberger and current Kayrros advisory board chairman, added, “misperceptions about shale oil in general and the Permian in particular have consequences, hence the importance of these measurements that show Permian production per well has been substantially overestimated. By the same token, average production costs per well are understated. With far more wells contributing to Permian and U.S. oil production than accounted for, current shale oil production is substantially more water- and sand-intensive than is commonly believed.”

https://www.rigzone.com/news/permian_fracking_activity_underreported_in_2018-23-jul-2019-159378-article/

Permian Basin Oil Production Growth Is Falling Fast

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/07/21/permian-basin-oil-production-growth-is-falling-fast/#598c411c5f48

Som jeg ser det, lukker EIA øjnene for dette faktum. Vi ser store udsving i olieprisen, når USA har åben og hvor meget det lykkes USA at styre olieprisen er svært at sige, men hvis produktionen fortsætter med at falde, kan de intet gøre. Meget spændende måneder, vi går i møde.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Continues-To-Struggle.html
Fersk artikkel. Her må en betale for å lese, men er en kjapp kan en ta et Printscreen-bilde før artikkelen blir overskygget.

Bilde av artikkel:
https://ibb.co/RbmgLLS

Linken til EIA som vist på bildet:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/


Virker klart at skal mange av shaleprodusentene overleve må de få mer betalt for oljen sin, oljeprisen må økes.
En evt. konsolidering er en ting, men det blir ikke gjort over natten.

Men det er klart, litt småkjekling rundt Hormuz kan hjelpe på....

“More bankruptcies are all but certain as oil and gas borrowers must repay or refinance several hundred billion dollars of debt over the next six months,” IEEFA concluded.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Is-Doomed-No-Matter-What-They-Do.html#

Trump`s ønske om at holde olieprisen nede, har gjort ondt på industrien i USA. Det ser ud til, at det nu er "pay back time".

The Curious Case of Iran’s Missing Oil

Keith Kohl Photo By Keith Kohl
Written Jul. 26, 2019

Extraordinary feats of magic are taking place right under our noses.

And the magician pulling off these incredible tricks would make David Copperfield scratch his head in amazement.

First, I want you to take a look at the Sino Energy 1, a Hong Kong-flagged oil tanker:

From a size perspective, the Sino Energy 1 isn’t the largest crude tanker at sea.

Built in 1999, she measures roughly 182 meters in length and can carry nearly 50,000 tonnes at full capacity.

Now pay attention, and don’t blink… or you might miss it.

One minute the Sino was gliding through the waters of the Persian Gulf. The tanker was sitting high in the water, suggesting that its cargo hold was empty.

Then, suddenly, it vanished, right into thin air.

In fact, this captain-turned-magician was so good that he made the Sino disappear for nearly a week.

But what really made this vanishing act so special was the fact that after it reappeared a week later, the Sino was full to the brim with crude oil.

Quite the curious case, indeed.

Although I’m never one to spoil a good magic act, all it took the Sino’s captain to pull off this trick was a little flip of the switch.

It’s called the Automatic Identification System, or AIS for short.

Back in 1974, an international maritime treaty was enacted called the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea.

The fifth chapter of this treaty lays out the guidelines regarding the safety of navigation. More specifically, Regulation 19 of this chapter requires ship-borne navigational systems and equipment.

That’s where the AIS comes into play; it gives everyone the basic information, including its identity, type, position, course, speed, navigational status, etc.

The signal is automatically sent from a transponder onboard, so it not only lets the owner keep track of the ship’s whereabouts, but it also helps prevent everyone from hitting each other.

Every oil tanker on the planet has one.

And that’s how, with a small bit of sleight-of-hand, the captain of the Sino Energy 1 was able to pull off his magic.

However, the question you should be asking is, “WHY did he turn off his AIS?”

Fortunately, that answer is much easier to answer.

Tanker Wars

Why is oil sitting under $60 today?

Well, one reason is because despite the geopolitical chaos taking place in the Strait of Hormuz — from tanker seizures to the Royal Navy frigates now escorting UK-flagged ships through the area — Iranian oil is still making its way to the international market.

These oil tankers are essentially “going dark” to skirt U.S. sanctions placed on Iran’s oil industry.

It’s an effective way for tankers to slip quietly through the Strait of Hormuz, fill up their hold with Iranian crude, then slink back out and unload their cargo elsewhere.

And the Sino’s captain isn’t the only one with this trick up his sleeve. Since U.S. sanctions have gone into effect, dozens of tankers have gone dark, smuggling millions of barrels of Iranian oil out of the area.

But let’s not fool ourselves here; we know exactly where most of this oil is going: China.

It’s not a coincidence that today, the Sino Energy 1 is sailing at a comfortable 13.4 knots in the Eastern China Sea.

What do you think will happen when this party trick doesn’t work anymore?

It turns out President Trump isn’t going to look the other way. This week, the U.S. placed economic sanctions on Zhuhai Zhenrong Ltd., a state-owned Chinese company, as well as its CEO for violating sanctions and buying Iranian crude.

The question now is whether this zero-tolerance policy will deter future tankers from making the same move.

Perhaps.

It’s not as if those buyers don’t have options.

Both Russia and the Saudis are already stealing some of that market share from Iran.

That includes China, too.

Saudi Arabia exported 40% more oil to China in April than it did the previous year.

And soon there will be even more oil making its way to China, and it’ll come from a very unlikely source.

We’ll dive right into that next week.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

Det de ganske enkelt viser i denne artikkelen, er at fakta støtter potensiell lavere amerikansk oljeproduksjonsvekst i 2. halvår 2019. Hvis vi antar at brønnforholdene faller på linje med ~ 15 000 brønner i år, ser vi den amerikanske skiferproduksjonsveksten i H2 2019 bare til gjennomsnittlig ~ 600 kb / d. Dette ville innebære en flat amerikansk oljeproduksjonsbane for resten av året.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4276539-shale-oil-production-growth-disappointment-real-risk-h2-2019

Det nylige produksjonsfallet i lower 48 er en effekt av stormen Harvey hvor en stengte ned store deler av offshoreproduksjonen i mexico gulfen.

Regner med en oppjustering til normale nivåer på onsdag.

Støtter at oljeprisen på sikt skal opp når markedet ser at Permian og shale ikke kan vokse inn i evigheten. Men et fall på 1,1mill i produksjon over to uker er utelukkenede
pga stormen. Hvis det ikke var det ville oljeprisen stått minst 10$ høyere.

http://www.energyfuse.org/barry-rocks-gulf-of-mexico-oil-production/
Barry mener du sikkert....

Tropical Storm Barry represents the first major storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November and peaks between August and November. Storms that disrupt oil and gas operations are becoming increasingly common, and the Gulf of Mexico represents a vulnerable spot for U.S. energy security, as just over half of all domestic refinery capacity is located near the Gulf coast.

Men....det kommer flere av samme type snart. Og nå har de airconditionen på full guffe, og så skal de kjøre bil i ferien sin.

Barry ja - beklager. Solstikk i varmen ;-)

Ja, det bliver spændende at, hvor meget der kommer tillbage, men at antal rigge bare falder og falder er en realitet og som det fremgik af Caterpilar rapporten, er der tale om en betydelig nedgang i Permian.

https://www.oilandgas360.com/the-permian-oil-boom-is-showing-signs-of-overheating-2/

Lite utdrag fra denne fargerike atikkelen...

"The Permian, however, is also showing signs of overheating. Sand, which is used to prop open the fractures in rock that allow the oil to flow, has become a precious commodity that fetches about $60 a ton. Truck drivers command salaries of $150,000 a year. Getting a child into day care “is like you’re scalping tickets to a Rolling Stones concert,” says Jessica McCoy, a mother in Midland, Texas, the Permian’s unofficial capital. And the region’s roads, overwhelmed by the sheer volume of trucks barreling down thoroughfares designed for farm traffic, are among the deadliest in the country.

Meanwhile, a shortage of pipelines to transport crude from the Permian’s fields to refineries and tankers on the Gulf Coast threatens to cap production growth at least until next year, when new conduits come online. The basin’s total output has been growing by an estimated 31,000 barrels a day, down from the 134,000 barrels-a-day gains logged in October of last year."

"Furthermore, oilfield service giant Schlumberger Ltd. is warning that increased drilling intensity runs the risk of wells being laid too close to one another, causing them to lose pressure and to flow more slowly. The solution is to space them farther apart, but that leaves behind precious crude in the rock. Operators will have to spend more than $300 billion in the next five years to meet the industry’s goal of boosting the Permian’s production by half, according to Arthur D. Little, a Boston-based consulting firm.

As such, perhaps the biggest challenge for wildcatters is getting investors on board. The S&P 500 Energy Index has underperformed the wider market by 42 percentage points over the past four years, despite a 35 percent surge in the price of oil. Fund managers have lambasted executives for their high pay, demanding dividends and share buybacks. In the first quarter of this year, most companies responded with pledges to do either or both, then in the next quarter proceeded to blow through their capital expenditure budgets.

Some $30 billion in U.S. shale acquisitions have been announced since March, focused almost entirely on the Permian, with incumbents such as Concho Resources Inc. and Diamondback Energy Inc. bulking up and BP Plc making a long-awaited reentry. The dealmaking demonstrates that energy companies are confident that near-term obstacles can be overcome."

Det er en del faktorer som griper inn i hverandre ja, og svikter en så svikter mye av det andre også.
(80% sjanse opphøyd 5 ganger så sitter en igjen med bare knapt 33% sjanse....)

Hvis det viser sig, at nedgangen er uundgåelig, ikke bare på grund af færre rigge, kan der blive et stort fald i produktionen. Får vi samtidig optrappet konflikten med Iran, bliver det den perfekte storm. Trump får ikke løst problemerne og fortsætter med at konflikte med alt og alle, manden er en katastrofe.

The Permian Boom Is On Its Last Leg
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Permian-Boom-Is-On-Its-Last-Leg.html

The EIA projects that U.S. shale oil will continue to grow for most of the next decade. Should it falter sooner — while global demand continues to grow at >1 million BPD — then we shall see a return to higher oil prices.

Vi har set store udsving på olieprisen, når USA har åben og med tendens til at køre prisen ned. Spørgsmålet er, om USA kan blive ved med at presse prisen ned, med udsigt til, at deres egen produktion falder. Det bliver interessant at følge de næste uger.