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Survey split on MAX return to service: December to March

Aug. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: It will take Boeing nearly a year to deliver the stored 737 MAXes
if the airplane returns to service in November, according to a new analysis by Bernstein Research.

In an Aug. 5 research note, Bernstein reported the results of an investors’ survey and forecast
the ramp-up of production next year to rate 57/mo, something Boeing had hoped to achieve last
June before the MAX grounding upset all plans.
In the survey, Bernstein reported it expects the MAX return to service in November.

Little middle ground

The poll found investors:

have a wide split in sentiment, with many investors bullish on the stock, many bearish but few in between;
generally expect MAX deliveries to restart in December.

<<< A significant number, 47%, don’t expect deliveries >>>>>

to restart until March or later; 32% responded with December as the deliver restart date.

Only 17% agreed with Bernstein’s November forecast.

expect customer compensation to be at least as much as the $5.6bn in charges and costs announced with the 2Q earnings;
differed widely on 2020 Free Cash Flow expectations.

About half expect $20/share and nearly half expect about $30/share. Few are in between.

Bernstein believe compensation will be “discretionary, as Boeing works to repair relationships.”
One hundred investors were polled.

Production

Bernstein doesn’t see another production rate cut and no production suspension, based on its
own November delivery forecast.

It sees the following production rate schedule:

42/mo (the current rate) in November and December;
47/mo January-June;
52/mo July-September; and
57/mo from October.

Bernstein predicts Boeing will be able to deliver 25 stored MAXes a month, resulting in the total Undelivered backlog being cleared by December 2020.
Buckingham Research earlier forecast a best case clearing of the backlog in 13 months and a worse case in 22 months.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/07/survey-split-on-max-return-to-service-december-to-march/