GOGL - November Talk

6seas
GOGL 15.11.2017 kl 09:23 26389

Solgt nå da wolf...
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Volf
15.11.2017 kl 09:37 16198

Nei som jeg skrev på en annen tråd så gikk jeg gjennom GOGL en gang til og fant ut at RSI ligger på 31 nærmer seg oversolgt, så jeg vil vente å se utover dagen.
Fikk også melding fra Singapore at malmprisene stiger.
Mulig kineserene er i markedet for å kjøpe malm når de stenger ned gruene i nord i dag.
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Kbkristi
15.11.2017 kl 10:40 16082

Stiger? På DCE synker malmen med 4,1 % til 446.
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niki
15.11.2017 kl 12:16 15930

Hvor finner man oppdaterte malmpriser?

Niki
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niki
15.11.2017 kl 12:16 15934

Hvor finner man oppdaterte malmpriser?

Niki
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6seas
16.11.2017 kl 06:58 15483

Alt opp i Asia. Olje litt opp...
Gogl RSI på 30
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Volf
16.11.2017 kl 08:54 15328

LITT SVAKERE CAPESIZE-MARKED, FORTSATT SUNT -FEARNLEYS

Oslo (TDN Finans): Capesize-markedet har svekket seg litt den seneste tien, men er fortsatt sunt. Markedet preges av usikkerhet knyttet til industriproduksjonen i Kina og landets råvareimport-politikk.
Det fremgår av skipsmeglerforetaket Fearnleys ukerapport onsdag ettermiddag.
I panamax- og supramax-markedet har aktiviteten svekket seg.
RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2017
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 32.000 34.000 12.000/35.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 11,00 10,85 4,00/11,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 10,00 10,00 4,00/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2017
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 11.250 12.750 5.600/14.800
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.000 18.500 11.600/21.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 5.000 5.750 2.500/8.600
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 9.000 11.000 2.500/14.000
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2017
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 12.800 13.000 8.250/13.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 8.000 10.000 3.900/11.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.500 18.000 12.000/20.000
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2017
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 16.000 16.000 10.250/17.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 14.500 15.000 8.650/15.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 11.000 11.250 7.250/12.400
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 9.600 10.650 6.600/10.750
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
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Kbkristi
16.11.2017 kl 08:56 15285

Malmen opp 1,21 %, Marshall har verken shortet eller dekket siste uke. Vi nærmer oss sterkt Q3.
Tror dette blir bra.
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Slettet bruker
16.11.2017 kl 10:10 15139

Jeg har bare skalket lukene og gir blanke i hva kursen er. Nytter ikke å skrike lenger, for bare vente til det ordner seg og handle når man kan.
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6seas
16.11.2017 kl 12:05 14952

cape -0.7, snur nå. Best å komme seg inn før q3
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Sa2ri
16.11.2017 kl 12:45 14879

Ser ut til at du kan ha rett:

FFA: Capes better across the curve with Dec pushing past 17k again on back of rumors of better physical. Panamax and SMX both supported.
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Kbkristi
16.11.2017 kl 13:55 14704

Meget bra omsetning på stigende kurser. Er vel ikke tvil om mange har kommet ned fra gjerdet :)
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Slettet bruker
16.11.2017 kl 18:12 14503

Mangler hodeløs hausing på denne tråden (enda), så jeg slenger ut 80kr neste fredag etter Q3.
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Shippingballs
16.11.2017 kl 19:17 14448

:)
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Kbkristi
16.11.2017 kl 19:31 14405

Hørt på makan, nå er vi fornøyd bare vi ligger på øvre 50-tallet :)
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Bassefix
16.11.2017 kl 19:38 14339

Hvad siger i til Q3 som kommer på tirsdag. Går vi i plus i dette kvartal eller bliver det først i Q4. Må sige at det bliver spændende at se hvor meget de har sejlet ind.
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Kbkristi
16.11.2017 kl 20:03 14843

Malmprisen har steget videre i dag til 463,
Fra dagens Bulls, BULLISH PATTERN DETECTED.
Last Signal:STAY IN CASH
Last Close:59,90 Change:+1,90 Percent change+3,28% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY IN CASH. The previous SELL signal was issued on 01.11.2017, 15 days ago, when the stock price was 65,90. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -9,10%.Market Outlook The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected. more...
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kubota
16.11.2017 kl 20:11 14820

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL112209/Yearend-projections-Bulker-earnings

Eg har ikkje login til denne siden, men eg likte overskriften.
Om noen har, så del gjerne denne artikkelen
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6seas
16.11.2017 kl 20:23 14868

6seas skrev Innlegget er slettet
Year-end projections: Bulker earnings
Capes forecast to double yearly earnings as China again drives demand

THIS is how it feels when you stop bleeding cash.

According to our second annual survey of analysts on forecast earnings, all bulker segments will post significant growth in charter hires this year. More importantly, this year's earnings will be comfortably above operating expenses - thus most owners have enjoyed positive operating cash flows, even though they are not yet making net profits.

Therefore, newbuilding deliveries have mostly been on time this year because owners are no longer afraid of losing cash by putting their ships on the water. At the same time, financing constraints and industry discipline are limiting newbuilding orders.

The net result is that the total orderbook size has shrunk to 623 vessels with 64m dwt, or 7.9% of existing fleet capacity, as of early October, according to Clarksons data. That is close to the lowest ratio on record. A very positive development, indeed, because oversupply will likely disappear as the number of newbuilding deliveries continues to fall in the coming quarters.

These developments are not without worries, though.

This year's market recovery is driven by the strong growth of China's coal and iron ore imports. However, the country's needs for those two types of commodities may be lower than usual this winter owing to Beijing's environmental drive to encourage gas-linked power generation and cap steel production in some provinces. Once again, owners will live and die by the world's largest seaborne dry bulk trading nation.

The full version of this report, available here, contains forecasts of 2017 earnings from leading banks, brokerages and consultancies. Next week, we will publish our 2018 outlook.

Capesize
It is the capesize segment once again leading the dry bulk recovery. Average earnings this year will almost double the 2016 level, based on our survey.
The recovery has been driven by China's efforts in cutting the numbers of domestic polluting steel mills and closing iron ore and coal mines with low efficiency. The net results of those measures have turned out to be favourable for dry bulk shipping.

Despite the closure of some outdated steel-making capacity, China has been producing more steel this year, with healthy domestic demand driven by infrastructure needs. According to the World Steel Association, Chinese crude steel production was up 6.3% year on year at 638.7m tonnes in January-September.

Analysts point out China has needed to import more high grade iron ore to produce high quality steel. Most iron ore trades are on capes and because Brazil's Vale is raising output, tonne-mile demand continues to enjoy healthy growth. Clarksons estimates iron ore-related tonne-mile growth will reach 5% in 2017, versus 4% last year.

There are some near-term headwinds, with China's environmental policy expected to curb coal and iron ore imports. But at least oversupply will continue to ease: according to Maritime Strategies International, the global capesize fleet will grow by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

Panamax
The panamax segment, having been a laggard for much of this decade, has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Chinese coal imports are still experiencing healthy levels of growth owing to the reduction of domestic output from mines with high levels of pollution and the demand displayed by steel mills and power plants. But the revival of US exports owing to lower domestic demand and favourable international pricing is particularly bullish for panamaxes, with European nations taking about half of those cargoes.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the US is due to export 72m short tonnes of thermal and coking coal this year, up from 61m tonnes in 2016. MSI expects exports of US coking coal to reach 45.2m tonnes, up 21.7% year on year.

Another supporting factor is China continuing to raise imports of soyabeans, partly because of strong demand for oilseeds. The US Department of Agriculture expects Chinese imports of soyabeans to reach 93.5m tonnes in the 2016/2017 harvest season, another record high, before rising further in the 2017/2018 season.

"As the seasonal trade shifts from South America to the US, a strong US soyabean crop should continue to drive continued volume growth [from October]," JP Morgan said in a note.

Supramax
Generally considered to be the most flexible type of bulkers, supramaxes have had a decent if unspectacular year.

While Indonesian coal exports and healthy global grain trades continue to be supporting factors, steel exports from China have been lacklustre owing to domestic demand and overseas tariffs.

The world's largest steel-producing nation exported 59.6m tonnes in the first nine months of 2017, down 29.8% on year. In percentage terms, Clarksons predicts exports to India, the US and the European Union to show the largest falls this year.

However, there could be support from India, where the Supreme Court has prohibited industrial use of petcoke and furnace oil in national capital regions on environmental concerns.

Indian industrial firms will need to import nearly twice as much volume of thermal coal to replace petcoke, according to an India-based analyst. This could boost imports from the US and South Africa.

Handies
Handysize earnings are increasing this year on the back of expanding minor bulk trades, even though these gains lag behind other segments.

Global seaborne bauxite, alumina and nickel ore trades are all expected to increase this year, in part owing to stronger Chinese imports, according to Clarksons forecasts.

On the supply side, net fleet growth will stay limited owing to a small orderbook and negligible newbuilding orders.

As of early November, the total orderbook of 35,000 dwt ships or smaller consisted of 46 units, with 1.2m dwt, or 1.8% of the existing fleet, data from Lloyd's List Intelligence showed.


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Sa2ri
16.11.2017 kl 20:23 14815

Ser ut til at det er i ferd med og snu, og at vi kan få positive tall på indeksen i morgen:

FFA: Capes trading at highs of the day on close with Dec +17k, PMX index worse than expected but market remains supported across the curve, SMX off AM lows bouncing +300 on Dec.
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Slettet bruker
16.11.2017 kl 20:54 14789

Takk sa2ri - håper du får rett :-) Snur ratene opp lan det bli noen fine dager før/etter q3 presentasjon!
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Bassefix
17.11.2017 kl 08:50 14443

Asia Dry Bulk-Capesize rates to hold steady even as cargo activity eases
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 17/11/2017


Freight rates for large capesize dry cargo ships on key Asian routes could remain around current levels next week as activity eases among miners and traders ahead of year-end, brokers said.
Uncertainty over Chinese industrial production and the country’s raw materials import policy are also causing near-term concern, Norwegian ship broker Fearnley said in a note on Wednesday.
But capesize rates, which since August have recovered to their strongest levels in three years, are likely to retain their underlying strength until at least the first quarter next year, brokers said.
Average earnings for capesize ships, which typically haul around 180,000 tonnes of iron ore or coal, are around $26,350 per day, according to shipping services firm Clarkson, compared with $8,208 per day last year.
“We’re approaching the end of the year, so chartering activity is easing,” a Singapore-based capesize broker said on Thursday.
“But there is a lot of resistance from owners with ships operating routes from Brazil to China against charterers pushing rates below $17-18 a tonne,” the broker added.
“Vessel availability is quite tight, although there it not a lot of action in market. Vale and other operators have already chartered around 20 ships which will carry a big chunk of the cargo volume in November and early December,” the broker added.
“Only Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have been active this week among the Australian miners and there hasn’t been much activity by them. I think rates in the Pacific will come up a bit if vessel operators like Oldendorff and Fortescue Metals come back into the market,” the broker said.
Cargo demand is likely to outstrip growth in the capesize fleet, ship broker Banchero Costa (Bancosta) said in a report on Tuesday that should support freight rates.
Iron ore cargo volumes grew by 4 percent last year compared with 2 percent growth in the capesize fleet in 2016, the Bancosta report said.
Charter rates on the Western Australia-China route fell to $7.64 per tonne on Wednesday against $8.31 per tonne the same day last week. Rates hit $8.98 per tonne on Oct. 17, the highest since November 2014.
Freight rates on the route from Brazil to China slipped to $18.25 per tonne on Wednesday, from $18.41 a week earlier. They marked $19.60 per tonne on Sept. 25, the highest since November 2014.
Charter rates for smaller panamax ships fell this week due to a “lack of fresh cargoes in both hemispheres and a growing tonnage list,” the Fearnley note said.
Rates for a north Pacific round trip voyage dropped to $8,977 per day on Wednesday from $11,023 per day last Wednesday.
Rates in Asia for supramax ships slipped further this week to $6,300-$9,700 per day depending on the cargo and routing.
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell to 1374 on Wednesday from 1486 a week earlier.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Keith Wallis)
Leveret af Google OversætOversæt
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Kbkristi
17.11.2017 kl 08:51 14417

Malmen opp 1,98 %, og kun 2 handledager igjen til Q3.
Nothing can go wrong..rong..rong !
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Bassefix
17.11.2017 kl 08:55 14413

Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk Uge 46

Chartering - Supramax

Another week with rates easing over all the Supra routes within Atl. Fhauls from USG got payed around 21-22k daily and ultras 1.5k more for same. Grain cargoes from Black Sea to SE Asia were fixed around 19k daily. Vessels from Cont to USG saw around 8000k daily. Seems that chrts are waiting with concluding any deals whilst owners are keen fix their tonnage.. The Pacific market has also continued the negative trend from last week. Supras are getting paid arnd mid USD 7k + 30k bb for Indo coal rounds to China, while rates from N.China to Seasia is around low/mid USD 6k. Supras have achieved high USDd 9k for salt trips from WCI to China and trips via S.Afr direction China has been done around low USD 12k + 220k.

Chartering - Panamax

The activity has slowed down quite substantially the last week. Lack of fresh cargoes in both hemispheres and a growing tonnage list with prompt dates is putting pressure on the freight rates and again it is the Pacific region which is most exposed. TA and FH rates are respectively at levels ard low 11k’s and low 17k’s. The Atl market is expected to slide further in the coming days with negligible fresh biz, especially from US Gulf. The sentiment in Asia remain soft with a transpacific RV priced at 9k’s and the expectations going forward still being negative. Generally, the short-term outlook for the Pmax appears to be soft. FFA’s, Dec is priced at low/mid 10k’s, while Q1 is now priced at low 9k’s on the P4TC index.

Chartering - Capesize

Softening but overall still healthy. Uncertainty over Chinese industrial production and raw materials import policy, along with an apparent spot slowdown, causing near-term concern. Average daily earnings down some 6 pct w-o-w to come in at USD 20500, mostly due to reduced cargo flows and subsequent freight levels for the fundamental WAust/China- and related interpacific trades. Fronthaul trades see quite some volatility as well, but at less volumes. Period activity still low as ffa for 2018 is a prohibitive factor. Notable exceptions include 179000 dwt/built 2010 done for 12-15 months at USD 16k China prompt, also reported 176000 dwt/built 2007 fixing USD 14500 for 11-13 months but with jan/mar 2018 delivery.

ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capesize Kamsarmax Ultramax
Moderate Soft Weakening
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne) This week Last week Low 2017 High 2017
TCT Cont/Far East (180' dwt) 32,000.00 34,000.00 12,000.00 35,000.00
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 11.00 10.85 4.00 11.00
Richards Bay/R.dam 10.00 10.00 4.00 10.00
PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)
Transatlantic RV 11,250.00 12,750.00 5,600.00 14,800.00
TCT Cont / F. East 17,000.00 18,500.00 11,600.00 21,000.00
TCT F. East / Cont 5,000.00 5,750.00 2,500.00 8,600.00
TCT F. East RV 9,000.00 11,000.00 2,500.00 14,000.00
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 7.70 8.20 5.00 8.20
SUPRAMAX (usd/day)
Atlantic RV 12,800.00 13,000.00 8,250.00 13,000.00
Pacific RV 8,000.00 10,000.00 3,900.00 11,000.00
TCT Cont / F. East 17,500.00 18,000.00 12,000.00 20,000.00
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)
Capesize 180,000 dwt 16,000.00 16,000.00 10,250.00 17,000.00
Capesize 170,000 dwt 14,500.00 15,000.00 8,650.00 15,500.00
Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,000.00 11,250.00 7,250.00 12,400.00
Supramax 53,000 dwt 9,600.00 10,650.00 6,600.00 10,750.00
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): 1374 previous week: 1486
SALES AND PURCHASES
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.
Archigetis 81 076 2011 Zela Shipping xs 20
Glory Pegasus 77 663 1998 Undisclosed 7,80
Fighter 48 193 2001 Chinese 8,20
Atlantic Spirit 33 427 2007 Turkish 9,80
Atlantic Treasure 33 401 2008 Greek 10,00
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Sa2ri
17.11.2017 kl 12:05 14216

Plusstall som forventet, og over 20' USD per dag igjen:

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +2,8% TIL USD 20.114/DAG
Oslo (TDN Finans): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 2,8 prosent til 20.114 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News fredag.

Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
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Slettet bruker
17.11.2017 kl 12:06 14171

Herlig, takk - gleder meg til tirsdsg!:-)
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6seas
17.11.2017 kl 12:08 14264

Bør vel gå litt utover dagen og på mandag nå.. kjøp kjøp
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Slettet bruker
17.11.2017 kl 12:10 14159

Supert. Får avlyse apokalypsen for denne gang.
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Kbkristi
17.11.2017 kl 16:47 13956

De vil vel prøve å ødelegge denne oppturen også:

Kjøp av nye tørrbulkskip firedobles

Det er blitt bestilt vesentlig mange flere tørrbulkskip i år enn i fjor.

Artikkel av: Are Strandli

Fra januar til oktober har antallet tørrbulkskip under bestilling firedoblet seg fra samme periode i fjor, skriver bransjenettstedet Splash247 som viser til data fra Alphabulk.

Totalt 287 tørrbulkskip over 15.000 dødvekttonn er blitt bestilt, og ifølge Alphabulk 43 prosent av disse skip av typen Panamax og Kamsarmax.

Ordrene etter disse fartøyene er det høyeste siden 2013.

Når det gjelder fartøy av typen Supramax har det bare blitt bestilt 85 stykker så langt. Dersom det labre nivået holder seg ut året, vil det være første gangen på 12 år at det blir bestilt så få nye Supramax-skip, ifølge Alphabulk.

Handysize-skip utgjør fem prosent av de totale bestillingene så langt i år, mens Capesize-segmentet utgjør 23 prosent.
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Slettet bruker
17.11.2017 kl 17:08 14030

det blir 66 capesize. Er omtrent 1600 capere totalt i verden, så 66 er 4%. Kanskje litt for mange bestillinger om tallene mine stemmer.
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Kbkristi
17.11.2017 kl 17:43 13993

Ja, det virker veldig mye. Men er Valemax regnet som capes, så er det en del der. Valemax skal byttes ut og er under bestilling. Så oppturen blir vel maks på 1-2 år.
Skal inn i SFL, når jeg forlater Gogl.
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really
17.11.2017 kl 20:32 13747

Morsomt å se hvor lett det er å manipulere Gogl ved å spille på de to børsene. Selg det ned i US med lavt volum og Oslo detter som en sekk.
Og så normaliserer det seg i US.
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Slettet bruker
17.11.2017 kl 21:06 13714

Jaja da var jeg tilbake i gogl igjen, dog med litt mindre eksponering men klarte ikke være uten gogl i porteføljen :)
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Slettet bruker
17.11.2017 kl 22:15 13743

Velkommen tilbake PInvest! :-)
GOGL sluttet opp 0.09 / 1.74% i USA.

Blir spennende på tirsdag, riktig god helg alle!
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Bassefix
18.11.2017 kl 08:05 13533

GOGL:DRIFTSRESULTAT USD 8M VENTES I 3.KV 2017

16:19
ESTIMATER FOR GOLDEN OCEAN (alle tall i millioner dollar):

==============================================================

Golden Ocean Group offentliggjør sin rapport for tredje

kvartal 2017 tirsdag 21. november.

==============================================================

3.KV, MUSD Snitt Median Lav Høy 2016

==============================================================

Inntekter på t/c-basis 83 83 72 94 43

--------------------------------------------------------------

Ebitda 30 31 23 37 -0

--------------------------------------------------------------

Driftsresultat 8 9 2 15 -16

--------------------------------------------------------------

Resultat før skatt -4 -4 -10 3 -27

--------------------------------------------------------------

Nettoresultat -4 -4 -10 3 -27

--------------------------------------------------------------

Resultat/aksje (USD) -0,03 -0,03 -0,08 0,02 -0,25

==============================================================




==============================================================

MUSD 2017 2018 2019 2016

==============================================================

Inntekter på t/c-basis 309 392 479 168

--------------------------------------------------------------

Ebitda 113 184 268 6

--------------------------------------------------------------

Driftsresultat 32 83 168 -70

--------------------------------------------------------------

Resultat før skatt -23 33 125 -128

--------------------------------------------------------------

Nettoresultat -23 33 125 -128

--------------------------------------------------------------

Resultat/aksje (USD) -0,18 0,25 0,96 -1,34

--------------------------------------------------------------

Utbytte (USD) 0,03 0,13 0,23 n/a

==============================================================



Oslo (TDN Finans): Golden Ocean ventes å legge frem et driftsresultat på 8 millioner dollar for tredje kvartal 2017.



Dette viser gjennomsnittet av estimater SME Direkt har hentet inn for TDN Finans blant syv analytikere.



Inntektene på t/c-basis ventes til 83 millioner dollar, mens nettoresultatet er ventet til -4 millioner dollar. Ebitda ventes til 30 millioner dollar.



For 2017 ventes inntektene på t/c-basis til 309 millioner dollar, stigende til 392 millioner i 2018 og 479 millioner i 2019.



Driftsresultatet ventes til 32 millioner dollar i 2017, stigende til 83 millioner i 2018 og 168 millioner i 2019.



Fire analytikere anbefaler kjøp av Golden Ocean-aksjen, mens en har nøytral/hold og en anbefaler selg.



Det gjennomsnittlige kursmålet er 77,2 kroner, varierende mellom 59 og 91 kroner.



Deltagere ABG Sundal Collier, Arctic Securities, Clarksons

Platou Securities, DNB Markets, Nordea Markets, Pareto

Securities og SEB Equities










BNS, finans@tdn.no
TDN Finans, +47 21 95 60 70
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ergotamin
18.11.2017 kl 12:35 13800

Mandag blir nok siste sjanse for å kjøpe aksjen under kr 65
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Slettet bruker
19.11.2017 kl 12:24 13619

1. Oppslag på HO nå, ha en fortsatt fin søndag. Siste dag for å plukke GOGL lavt på 60 tallet i morgen? :-)
...........
Spår inntektsdobling for Golden Ocean

Analytikerne venter et kraftig resultatløft for tørrbulkrederiet i årene fremover. 

Channel Alliance. Foto: Golden Ocean.

Artikkel av: Are  Strandli

19. november 2017 - 10:43

Førstkommende tirsdag legger John Fredriksens tørrbulkrederi Golden Ocean frem tall for tredje kvartal.

Disse tallene er det knyttet stor spenning til ettersom ratene skipene oppnår i spotmarkedet har fått et kraftig løft i perioden.

Ratene til de store Capesize-skipene var på under 7.000 dollar i dagen i starten av kvartalet. Disse har imidlertid økt kraftig i løpet av kvartalet, og i slutten av september var dagratene på over 20.000 dollar dagen.

Inntektsløft

Meglerhusene som dekker selskapet tror at både topplinje og bunnlinje vil få et kraftig løft.

Ifølge estimater SME Direkt har innhentet på vegne av nyhetsbyrået TDN Finans, ventes det at inntektene nesten har doblet seg fra tredje kvartal i fjor.

Snittforventningene er inntekter på 83 millioner dollar, opp fra 43 millioner dollar i samme periode 2016.

Driftsresultatet ventes å ha snudd fra minus 16 millioner dollar i tredje kvartal 2016 til pluss 8 millioner dollar i tredje kvartal i år.

På bunnlinjen ventes det riktignok fortsatt et underskudd, men betydelig lavere enn fjorårets underskudd på 27 millioner dollar.

Underskuddet ventes å ha krympet til 4 millioner dollar i årets tredje kvartal. 

For året som helhet ventes et driftsresultat på 32 millioner dollar. I 2018 ventes dette å stige til 83 millioner dollar og videre til 168 millioner dollar i 2019.

Venter kursløft

Av de seks analytikerne SME Direkt har innhentet estimater fra, har seks en kjøpsanbefaling én har nøytral/hold-anbefaling, mens kun én har en salgsanbefaling.

Kursmålene varierer mellom 59 kroner og 91 kroner, mens det gjennomsnittlige kursmålet er 77,2 kroner. 

Golden Ocean-aksjen sluttet fredag på 59,35 kroner etter et fall på drøyt 12 prosent den seneste måneden. 

Oppsiden til det mest offensive kursmålet er dermed på hele 30 prosent. 

Hittil i år er bulk-aksjen opp nær 44 prosent. 

Rederiet råder for tiden over en flåte på 67 skip, hvorav 30 er av typen Capesize. 

Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 20:23 Du må logge inn for å svare
Bassefix
20.11.2017 kl 06:21 13112

Dry Bulk Demand: China’s infrastructure sector remains strong, whilst the real estate sector is weakening
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/11/2017


China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released their main macro figures for October this week. The general picture painted is of decelerating growth.
We believe Infrastructure and real estate are the key sectors to follow for the Dry bulk industry as these sectors combined constitutes close to 70%* of overall Chinese steel demand. As China’s market share in global steel production is more than 50%, these 2 sectors within China also represents more than 35% of global end user demand for steel.

Torvald Klaveness
China’s real estate sector constitutes 30%* of end user demand within the country and has been in a cyclical upturn since the start of 2016. However, in the last couple of months we have seen a clear deceleration in the growth within this sector as the Chinese government has tightened liquidity and regulations. Floor space of houses sold in September and October was down 5.7% and 8.6% respectively on a YoY basis, after being up close to 11% in the first 8 months of the year. Floor space of houses newly started posted a negative YoY growth of 2.9% in October after being up 11.5% in the first 9 months of the year. House prices in China are not growing at the same pace as in 2016 and the first half of this year. House prices in Tier 1 posted negative YoY growth in August and September but turned positive again in October. While prices in Tier 3 cities are still in a positive territory on YoY basis, the growth fell sharply from September. The price growth in tier 2 cities have also slowed in recent months.

Torvald Klaveness

Torvald Klaveness

The positive news for the real estate sector is that the inventories of unsold buildings in the sample we track is down 16% YoY. Thus, while we think that the growth in the real estate sector might turn negative next year, we do not expect a sharp downturn in the activity as low inventories should cushion the potential downturn.
The positive news is that China’s infrastructure sector, which constitutes 39%* of end user demand within the country, shows no sign of weakness. Fixed asset investments in the infrastructure sector was up 13.5% on a YoY basis in October. We, expect the growth rate in infrastructure investments to remain strong in 2018.
*Source:JP Morgan, Wood Mackenzie/Klaveness Research
Source: Klaveness
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Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 20:23 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
20.11.2017 kl 09:53 13026

Som forventet fin oppgang i dag før q3 pres i morgen. Tipper shorterne dekker inn det de kan i dag :-)
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 20:23 Du må logge inn for å svare