GOGL - November Talk

6seas
GOGL 15.11.2017 kl 09:23 27154

Solgt nå da wolf...
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Øying
24.11.2017 kl 08:22 7223

Dagens aksje:
Golden Ocean Group Limited har falt tilbake mot gulvet i en stigende trendkanal. Videre oppgang indikeres og dagens kursnivå kan være en god inngangskurs. Kursen har også brutt et motstandsnivå på kort sikt og gitt kjøpssignal fra kortsiktig trading range. Aksjen har støtte ved ca 58.00 kroner og motstand ved ca 76.00 kroner. Positiv volumbalanse styrker aksjen på kort sikt. Aksjen anses samlet sett teknisk positiv på middels lang sikt.
Anbefaling: Kjøp
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Bassefix
24.11.2017 kl 08:27 7223

Asia Dry Bulk-Capesize rates may rise further on more cargo charters
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 24/11/2017


Freight rates for large dry cargo ships on key Asian routes are set to climb further amid tightening vessel supply from increased chartering activity and shipment delays due to unfavourable weather in China, brokers said.
Bad weather delays in China have disrupted future sailing schedules while recent charters have committed ships to load cargoes in late November and early December. These have reduced the number of ships available for charter, brokers said.
“I think rates will push up in both basins (the Atlantic and Pacific) in December that will give a better start to January,” a Singapore-based capesize broker said.
Average daily earnings for both capesize and smaller panamax ships are at a three-year high on both a weekly and annual basis after rates started to rise in August.
Earnings for 180,000 deadweight tonne (DWT) capesize ships hit $25,349 per day on Nov. 10, the highest weekly average since rates topped $28,748 per day on Nov. 7, 2014, according to data from shipping services firm Clarkson.
Daily earnings are averaging $15,703 per day so far this year, the highest since 2014.
Earnings for 80,000 DWT panamax vessels surged to $11,775 per day on Nov. 10 and average $10,387 per day this year, also the highest since 2014.
“(The) present bounce back in freight rates show that the present market is solid and has the ability to push,” Norwegian ship broker Fearnley said in a note on Wednesday.
But the capesize and panamax markets could face headwinds from China’s cutback in steel production which starts this month and lasts through March. Iron ore and coal, key steelmaking ingredients, are staple cargoes for these ships.
Production cuts could reduce China’s iron ore imports by as much as 80 million tonnes, maritime consultant Drewry said in a note, adding it expects freight rates for capesizes to stay at current levels until the first quarter.
Capesize charter rates on the Western Australia-China route rose to $8.35 per tonne on Wednesday from $7.64 last week. Freight rates from Brazil to China climbed to $18.50 per tonne from $18.25.
Panamax rates for a north Pacific round trip voyage rose to $9,029 per day on Wednesday from $8,977 a week ago.
Rates in Asia for smaller supramax ships rose slightly on tighter tonnage supply and higher cargo volumes.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Keith Wallis; Editing by Manolo Serapio Jr.)
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Bassefix
24.11.2017 kl 08:28 7220

Dry Bulk Market Looking in Good Shape Until the end of 2017
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 24/11/2017


In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “it has been a tough couple of weeks for the dry bulk market, with the brakes having been applied by charterers once more and rates rolling back slightly as the market went silent in terms of fresh interest. We seemed to be on the verge of a gradual downtrend that if it were so would continue through into the New Year. In the midst of this however, there still seems to be some positive momentum reserved in the background which may well keep things buoyant for a little while longer and may even hold a final positive rally before the gradual retreat”.
According to Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, “interest in the major dry bulk commodities seems to be on a softening curve now. This has been greatly reflected in the price tumbling noted in the futures contracts in China this past Wednesday. Iron ore, the top commodity moved in the dry bulk market and a key ingredient in steelmaking, noted a drop of as much as 4.6 per cent. With steel production cuts starting to take shape and overall demand starting to slowly tail off now, many are starting to get a sense that this year’s market peak has now past. A similar bearish feel was being seen in the prices for coal, with the price of thermal coal down by 0.8 per cent, just after rounds of discussions ended between policy makers, major producers and utilities which set local coal prices for 2018 at the same contract prices we were seeing in 2017. Being a disappointment for the major utilities, the fear is that an increased pressure would start to be felt in the market and possibly eating away some of the positive momentum noted during the past year”.

Lazaridis said that “these seemed to be more so temporary shocks on the prices of these commodities rather than any fundamental change in the market, with markets spooked slightly from the crackdown that has taken place in the steel producing and coal mining industries. Having said that, as the week came to a close there was a sense that a slight improvement may well be in sight and most traders were starting to feel a resistance emerge in the market. With the rest of the dry bulk commodities still showing some strength in fresh interest, more so in trades such as for steel products as China looks to shift the ample stockpiles it compiled over the past couple of months and the grain trade as both Russia and the US seem to have accumulated a fair amount of stocks from the latest harvests, there may well still be enough fundamentals in the market to help drive things in a positive direction for the remainder of the month”, Allied’s analyst noted.

He continued his analysis by stating that “even from the iron ore and coal trade, some traders are still holding a positive outlook for the next couple of weeks, with the crackdown made on steel producers and miners by the Chinese government possibly leading to an ever bigger shift towards higher Fe content iron ore (a trend that has been well noted these past couple of months as the price gap between different qualities of iron ore really started to widen), and better quality coal which is less pollutant (although in terms of steel making the cut down in emissions would bring about in theory a decrease in coal used for steel production). Mixed messages you may well think, though overall, we do still see a fairly positive picture being painted for the remainder of the year. Expectations should still hold off a gradual softening to be noted before we reach the end of the year and a trend that should in theory continue up until the Chinese New Year in early 2018. For the moment though there may still be some positive developments to be seen along the way”, Lazaridis concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
24.11.2017 kl 09:50 7070

I midten av mars i år var kursen i GOGL 69.-. Da var ratene $15.764/day. Den gang viste FFA for Q1 18 $10.500/day og Q4 17 lå på $16.500/day.

Ratebildet har overrasket positivt og slått alle forventninger siden den gang, og Q3 for GOGL gikk i pluss.

I dag ligger ratene på $23.381, altså 33% høyere enn i mars. FFA pr. i dag viser for Q1 18 $12.000 som er ca. 12% høyere enn hva som ble spådd i mars i år. FFA for 2019 viser omtrent likt.

Pr. i dag er kursen 4 % lavere enn den var i midten av mars i år...........
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Slettet bruker
24.11.2017 kl 10:03 7055

Nytter ikke å komme trekkende med matematikk her desverre. Jeg sverger til svartekunst i håp om å drive kursen opp.

Er bare bull overskrifter på hellenicshippingnews nå, så det er håp for oss.
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KJEPET
24.11.2017 kl 11:02 7000

Ja, er det én ting jeg har lært etter alle årene på børsen, så er at det man skriver her inne har NULL betydning for noe som helst:-). Jeg skrev det som grei historisk/matematisk fremstilling for de som skulle være interessert.
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jama
24.11.2017 kl 12:02 6884

Morgan Stanley selger unna gogl-aksjer med begge hender. Det gjelder å holde aksjen rundt 65 lengst mulig. Spennende hvor ratene havner i dag.
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KJEPET
24.11.2017 kl 12:17 6875

Det er jo slik de forsvarer shorten sin. Foreløpig går det fint. Selger massivt når det nærmer seg støtte, da blir endel investorer skremt og selger. På lavere kurser kjøper de seg opp igjen for å selge ut når støtten nærmer seg igjen. Slik har de holdt på de siste bruddforsøkene. Siden det ikke er noen interesse og trykk fra andre investorer så går dette fint gang på gang.

Det som er forskjellig fra de andre gangene er at de nå må bruke mer penger på å holde kursen unna støtten. Samtidig er det større volum rundt den siste toppen enn tidligere. Det borger for at trykkokeren nå snart eksploderer. Når det først skjer så får vi både i pose og sekk. De på gjerdet kommer løpende og kjemper om aksjene sammen med shorterne. Det kan skje når vi får et etablert brudd på 68.-.

Tipper vi runder $25.000/day i løpet av neste uke. Da blir det umulig å holde kursen under støttenivået:-)
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jama
24.11.2017 kl 12:29 6828

Rateoppgangen fortsetter den 24.11.2017.
--------------
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +1,0% TIL USD 22.532/DAG

12:03
Oslo (TDN Finans): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 1,0 prosent til 22.532 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News fredag.

Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
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Kbkristi
24.11.2017 kl 13:12 6765

For hver dag som går, så blir det større og større verdier bak hver Gogl-aksje.
Matematikken blir nok viktig etterhvert for de som kan gangetabellen.
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Bassefix
24.11.2017 kl 13:23 6764

Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk

Chartering - Supramax

A quiet start to the week. USG closed last week a bit tighter, and continued into the new week on a positive tone with little concluded, however. Trip to Far East fixing low USD 20k and trip to Continent mid 15k’s. Continent Smx fixing via Baltic to Emed is at high USD 12k. Ultramax seeing mid USD 11k for short period redly Atl. As we see a little bit improvement from the SE Asia market, we believe the Far East market might have touched the bottom already, but recovery is going to be slow considering the amount of open tonnage. In SE Asia, less spot tonnage with a few more vessel requirements brought the market slightly up from last week's levels.

Chartering - Panamax

Another slow and uneventful week for the Panamaxes with decreasing freight rates in both hemispheres. Nevertheless, during the last couple of days there has been a slightly more positive trend in the Pacific region compared to the sentiment in the last couple of weeks. People now wonder if we will see the same turnaround also in the Atlantic region, but that depends largely on the number of fresh cargoes coming out in the market in the coming days. Time of writing, TA and FH are respectively at levels around high 10k’s and high 16k’s, while a transpacific RV is priced at around 9k’s. The short-term outlook remains mixed and the slightly more positive trend in the Pacific region questions the direction of the market.

Chartering - Capesize

At the end of last week the Cape market did take a beating, and freight rates for West Aussie to China went down close to mid USD 7 pmt mark. The market started to be nervous that we had hit the peak of Q4 and was entering the seasonally more depressing Q1 market. However, at the mid of this week, the freight rates jumped back up to the mid USD 8 pmt level on West Aussie to China route. Again there was delays in China ports in combination with all the West Aussie miners entering the market with spot/ppt cargoes that was pushing it up again. Present bounce back in freight rates show that the present market is solid and have the ability to push back.

ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capesize Kamsarmax Ultramax
Active Mixed Mixed
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne) This week Last week Low 2017 High 2017
TCT Cont/Far East (180' dwt) 33,500.00 32,000.00 12,000.00 35,000.00
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore) 11.00 11.00 4.00 11.00
Richards Bay/R.dam 10.00 10.00 4.00 10.00
PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)
Transatlantic RV 11,000.00 11,250.00 5,600.00 14,800.00
TCT Cont / F. East 17,000.00 17,000.00 11,600.00 21,000.00
TCT F. East / Cont 4,500.00 5,000.00 2,500.00 8,600.00
TCT F. East RV 9,000.00 9,000.00 2,500.00 14,000.00
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc 7.60 7.70 5.00 8.20
SUPRAMAX (usd/day)
Atlantic RV 13,000.00 12,800.00 8,250.00 13,000.00
Pacific RV 8,000.00 8,000.00 3,900.00 11,000.00
TCT Cont / F. East 17,000.00 17,500.00 12,000.00 20,000.00
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)
Capesize 180,000 dwt 16,500.00 16,000.00 10,250.00 17,000.00
Capesize 170,000 dwt 14,800.00 14,500.00 8,650.00 15,500.00
Panamax 75,000 dwt 11,000.00 11,000.00 7,250.00 12,400.00
Supramax 53,000 dwt 9,850.00 9,600.00 6,600.00 10,750.00
Baltic Dry Index (BDI): 1413 previous week: 1374
SALES AND PURCHASES
Vessel Size Built Buyer Price Comm.
Ocean Ambition 82 000 2014 Undisclosed 22,00
Ocean Forte 81 616 2015 23,00
Ocean Vision 81 502 2015 23,00
Ocean Integrity 81 499 2015 23,00
Karaagac 53 350 2007 Chinese 9,80
DZ Qingdao 49 047 1996 Far Eastern 4,70
Franbo Wind 46 513 2001 Chinese 7,35 Pending CCS approval
Magnolia 31 916 1997 Undisclosed 4,30
Jupiter II 27 000 2009 Undisclosed 6,10
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RedRabbit
24.11.2017 kl 13:57 6679

MSI, MLI og JPM netto selger jevnt hele veien og Marshall dekker inn short posisjonen, med jevne mellomrom. Når disse er ferdige og klare for positivt rykk i aksjen, blir det gøy for oss andre tålmodige GOGL eiere. Det tikker inn gode meldinger hver dag, og det MÅ jo gi gode børs resultater snart.
Hadde vært hyggelig og kunne innkassere ett mindre julegratiale.
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Kbkristi
24.11.2017 kl 15:58 6572

Uka har jo ikke vært så aller verst den da. Sist fredag var sluttkurs 59,35, så da har vi skrivende stund en oppgang på 11,54 % på en uke.
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RedRabbit
24.11.2017 kl 16:00 6579

Sant, sant, men vi burde vært så mye høyere, sett iforhold til historien gjennom 2017.
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jama
24.11.2017 kl 17:04 6500

Meglerhusene MSI, MLI og JPM må jo gi seg med sin kjøp/salg politikk av mindre lotter for å kontrollere kursen. Kanskje må vi vente til nytt finansår før de slipper aksjen fri. Ratene er jo svært bra nå og selskapet tjener bra med penger og det må om ikke så lenge avspeile seg i kursen.
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Slettet bruker
24.11.2017 kl 22:38 6339

GOGL sluttet på 8.15, opp 0.62% i USA i kveld, tror vi får en hyggelig dag på børs mandag :-)
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