GOGL - April 2018 #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 04.04.2018 kl 07:39 37110

Shipping Q1: Asia Pacific dry freight market stutters after promising start
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 04/04/2018

The story of the Asia Pacific dry bulk markets for 2018 has been that of a promising start, but a shaky entry into the second quarter and a hopeful medium term, based on the trends that emerged from Q1.

Almost all the segments of the dry bulk market — Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize — started the year on a very steady note.

However, towards the end of Q1, the market started to lose momentum with the rates seeing a mini-collapse.

CAPESIZE — THE RISE AND FALL

Despite a rather positive start to the year, Asia Pacific and Atlantic Capesize freight rates trended downwards during Q1.

While cargo volumes in the Asia Pacific region remained healthy, the dearth of cargoes and oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic region was one of the major factors weakening the market as a whole. This has seen shipowners opting for short-haul voyages, mainly out of Australia.

“At current levels, there aren’t many owners who are willing to consider ballasting their vessels to the Atlantic — with the transatlantic rates being so depressed, Brazil is the only real option, but the freight rates for even that route has reduced,” a ship-operating source tracking the Capesize market said.

The source added that given the circumstances, owners are leaning towards fixing their vessels on short voyages, which have added more pressure on the Pacific market, leading to the fall in freight levels.

Participants have mixed views on the Capesize market’s outlook. Some of them continue to remain bullish due to the healthy demand for the period business, which involves charterers locking-in vessels for a sizable duration.

“When Capesize rates come back with the seasonal uplift, all rates will see a benefit,” Robert Bugbee, president of Scorpio Bulkers, said at a dry bulk shipping roundtable organized recently in the US by Morgan Stanley.

Bugbee added that Capesize rates are expected to reach $50,000/day within this year.

At the same time, those who are bearish think that the lower commodity prices and the weak market fundamentals, especially in the Atlantic region, will continue to pressure the market.

Q1 was relatively stable compared with the same period during 2017. The key Port Hedland, Western Australia, to Qingdao, China, Capesize route saw a minimum of $6,358/day and a maximum of $14,806/day as per Platts’ time charter equivalent, or TCE, assessments in 2018 so far, compared to a minimum of minus $485/day and a high of $18,094/day in 2017.

On the other main Capesize routes, too, Q1 2018 performed better with routes such as Tubarao to Qingdao registering between $8,997/day to $16,216/day versus $2,884/day to $18,754/day in Q1 2017.

PANAMAX: GRAIN DEMAND IS THE KEY

The Asia Pacific Panamax freight rates generally trended higher through Q1 2018.

While demand within the Pacific region was flat through the past quarter except for a short spike in China’s coal demand during January, the robust grain trade out of east coast South America, or ECSA, was a key driver for this segment.

This encouraged many owners to ballast their ships from the Asia Pacific into the Atlantic, which helped restrict tonnage supply in the eastern hemisphere and boosted freight levels.

The jostling by ship-operators to take vessels on short period had created a strong floor for the rates. Most of these vessels fixed on period were directed to ECSA to load grains.

Looking ahead, demand from coal is not expected to increase substantially into China or India. Also, the low Capesize freight rates have encouraged charterers to combine Panamax cargoes on the Capesize vessels where possible.

The mainstay for the Panamax segment will continue to be the grain cargoes out of ECSA, the Black Sea and the North Pacific to sustain the rates that were seen during Q1 2018.

SUPRAMAX — NO COAL COMFORT

The Supramax market in the Asia Pacific remained buoyant through Q1 2018, finding support due to a combination of factors, such as strong Chinese demand for seaborne coal during January and first-half February, and congestions at some Chinese ports, Bangladesh’s Chittagong port and India’s Haldia port.

The healthy demand from clinker and nickel ore cargoes towards the end of the quarter, as well as vessels ballasting out of the region to grain cargoes, helped strengthen the Supramax market.

While demand for moving coal cargoes to China has dropped since the Lunar New Year, cargoes like clinker and nickel ore are expected to lend support going into the next quarter.

The TCE for a 57,000 dwt vessel, delivered at Singapore to do a trip via South Kalimantan to east coast India, averaged close to $14,200/d in March compared to $11,405/d during the same period last year.

The uptick in the number of coal cargoes moving towards India compared with China suggests that tonnage continued to drain away from the Pacific towards the Indian Ocean.

The burgeoning demand to move limestone and petcoke out of the Persian Gulf has increased employment opportunities for Supramax vessels.

Source: Platts

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipping-q1-asia-pacific-dry-freight-market-stutters-after-promising-start/
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Mollen
09.04.2018 kl 21:47 15349

Den etterlengtede vendingen i CS-ratene er her. Blir spennende å se hvor høyt og raskt de klatrer i denne omgangen. Det kan fort bli store hopp i ratene fra dag til dag, nå får vi bare håpe at GOGL kursen henger med oppover og ikke lagger så inn i hampen som den gjorde før jul.
KJEPET
09.04.2018 kl 22:10 15299

Full utforbakke før US close nok en gang. Ikke så rart at parodien fortsetter. Før børsåpning i morgen er det vel opptakten til 3. verdenkrig smurfen i Vest skal twitre om. Eller vil han fortelle om sitt gode forhold til Kina, eller nye tollbarriærer på $200 mrd. mot Kina? Ingen som vet. Time will show! Børsene spretter opp og ned i takt med Trumps twittering.
Mollen
09.04.2018 kl 22:18 15269

Sukk..., ja den mannen der er ikke helt god. Får håpe dette bare er et spill for å markere seg og at ting løser seg snart. Orker ikke tanken på at vi skal ha det slik over tid der det er dagshumøret til Trump og hva han skriver på Twitter som styrer markedene...
gmtrade
09.04.2018 kl 23:12 15176

Har økt litt på min ferske Gogl beholdning i dag. Tror på en rask vending for aksjen som følge av at Trump og Jinping avslutter fektingen og tar på seg buksene igjen. 14 dagers kursmål, 65 kroner.

/Shortie
Sa2ri
10.04.2018 kl 16:50 14922

Nordea er sterk i toren fortsatt:

Ser fortsatt Golden Ocean i hundre (Artikkel av: Are Strandli 10. april 2018 - 15.41)

Nordea Markets er fortsatt bull på Golden Ocean, til tross for at ratene har falt og frykten for en handelskrig har økt.

Det John Fredriksen-kontrollerte tørrbulkrederiet får en etterlengtet opptur på Oslo Børs mandag på bakgrunn av at Capesize-ratene stiger, og at frykten for en handelskrig avtar.

Kl. 15:30 er aksjen opp rundt fem prosent til 60,80 kroner.

Tørrbulk-aksjen er imidlertid fortsatt ned over 16 prosent den seneste måneden, et fall Nordea Markets tilskriver nettopp de fallende ratene og frykten for en handelskrig.

I en oppdatering gjengitt av TDN Direkt, mener likevel meglerhuset at en eventuell handelskrig uansett ville hatt små direkte implikasjoner, og har derfor besluttet å beholde estimatene sine for Golden Ocean.

Meglerhuset har fortsatt forventninger om at spotratene skal øke i tredje og fjerde kvartal, og både kjøpsanbefalingen, samt kursmålet på 100 kroner, fastholdes.

Dersom spådommen skulle slå til, kan investorer som går inn nå, øyne en potensiell kursoppgang på 65 prosent.

http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/04/Ser-fortsatt-Golden-Ocean-i-hundre
Slettet bruker
10.04.2018 kl 17:31 14838

Jeg har sittet helt i ro i båten mens jeg har kost meg med alle de negative meldingene :) Gogl dobles i 2018 fra dagens nivå, vent og se!
Nonnen-42
10.04.2018 kl 17:39 14807

Ja, da blir det altså 122,60. Pluss 3 stk. utbytter før nyttår. Det høres bra!!! Stoler på deg.
gmtrade
10.04.2018 kl 18:06 14765

Nøyde meg med 8% oppgang på 20 timer og solgte igjen i dag.
Lykke til mot 100

/S
6seas
10.04.2018 kl 20:01 14541

Jepp. Ute på 62.1 i dag..
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Slettet bruker
10.04.2018 kl 21:04 14442

SBLK opp 7.5% i US...gogl i 65 i morgen
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oddrane
10.04.2018 kl 21:12 12318

6seas/gmtrade mulig dere gikk litt tidlig ut.
Usa/Kina forhandlinger rett om hjørnet og rater som starter å bevege seg oppover.

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Mollen
10.04.2018 kl 21:18 12311

Dårlig timing å selge på av Hans Herman Horn kanskje...? Time will show
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Mollen
10.04.2018 kl 21:25 12297

Hvor er beste plassen å være dersom man fortsatt har trua på bulk da folkens ? JIN, GOGL, SBULK, SCORPIO etc. ? Kom med innspill og tanker ?
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6seas
11.04.2018 kl 00:34 12178

Forhandlinger kommer til å ta tid. Ratene er fortsatt på lave nivåer og det er fortsatt overkapasitet.
For høy risk å sitte long i bulk. Kommer nok til å se 50-tallet igjen. Tipper ulven er enig..
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Slettet bruker
11.04.2018 kl 07:15 12115

Vel alle må mene hva de vil men tørrlast er plassen å være nå. Vekst i verden og dermed skal stål, mat ++ transporteres...derfor har noen meglerhus 80-120 som kursmål på GOGL og 60-65 på SBULK. Jeg sitter både i GOGL og SBULK.
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Sa2ri
11.04.2018 kl 08:09 12056

PAS er oppe tidlig i dag. Her er et klipp fra deres Shipping Daily:

"We are finally seeing capesize-rates move up, with offers moving up for Brazilian ore cargoes. Paper market also increased."
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Mollen
11.04.2018 kl 08:32 12012

Tror det blir et bra byks i Caperatene i dag også. Slik stemningen er nå følger nok kursen villig etter ? La det bare vare denne gangen til vi bryter godt gjennom motstanden på 75
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6seas
11.04.2018 kl 12:13 11872

Bci +1,5%
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Slettet bruker
11.04.2018 kl 12:14 11865

Last opp med Gogl!!
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KJEPET
11.04.2018 kl 13:48 11694

Ikke mange timene mellom fredspipe og krigserklæringer hos Trump. Nå skal det bombes, og børsene tar en ny sving nedover.
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Mollen
11.04.2018 kl 14:18 11646

Ha ha ? Kanskje løsningen for oss er å sjonglere mellom GOGL og våpenprodusenter med salg til US. Banner på at Locheed, Raytheon, Northorp mfl. stiger ved åpning i dag
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KJEPET
12.04.2018 kl 08:47 11389

Ser det fortsatt er lite cargo ut ifra Brasil om dagen. Men de som følger utviklingen på volumene i Iron ore kontraktene for tiden, vet hva som vil skje. Merkelige at det ikke gjenspeiles i (GOGL)kursen (forventninger). Rett og slett knallsterke volumer nå.
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Aristarchos
12.04.2018 kl 11:11 11249

Ble kanskje gjenspeilet litt siste halvtimen - opp fra 60,5 til 62 :-)
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Sa2ri
12.04.2018 kl 11:12 11251

Weekly Broker: Dry bulk appetite returns
Apr 12, 2018 03:37 pm | Jason Jiang

After a fortnight of limited done deals in the secondhand sale and purchase market in line with cooling charter rates, this issue of Weekly Broker roars back with a feast of concluded transactions led by the dry bulk sector. "On the dry bulk side, it looks as though the market showed a bit more spark […]

http://splash247.com/weekly-broker-dry-bulk-appetite-returns/
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KJEPET
12.04.2018 kl 11:14 11249

En aktør mindre i Capemarkedet (men skipene består selvsagt).....

http://splash247.com/louis-dreyfus-exits-cape-spot-market-controlled-global-miners/
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Sa2ri
13.04.2018 kl 07:17 10981

Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Index Still Looking for Momentum
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 12/04/2018

Capesize FFA Commentary:
Capes lost value yesterday morning with April trading down to $8750 and q3 $16200 before finding some buy support. Cal 19 also sold down to 16500 in thin volume. As the morning went on buyers returned and paid the thin offer side.

Panamax FFA Commentary:
With the recent uptick in activity in both basins post holidays failing to generate firmer numbers we saw another cautious days trading on Panamax paper. Prompts sold off with April and May printing $11300 and $12350 lows respectively while further out losses were less severe Q3 testing $12500 support and Q4 holding just over $13000.

Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax saw a day where rates ticked up throughout the day. The MayJune packaged was trading $11750 throughout the day and the Q3 was in the $11650-$11800 range. With some rum ours physical seemingly finding a bottom index was negative but not at the levels we have seen lately (10TC -$44, 6TC -$43).

Handysize FFA Commentary:
Another quiet day for the handysize paper with no reported trades.

Source: Freight Investor Services

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-index-still-looking-for-momentum/
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KJEPET
13.04.2018 kl 09:03 10862

Ny dag med omsetning på over 3 mt iron ore på DCE. Og GOGL handles snart på 50 tallet igjen. Her er det mange som skal springe etter i løpet av noen uker ja :-)
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Sa2ri
13.04.2018 kl 11:14 10731

Her er et par klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily I dag:

"In dry bulk, capsizes are climbing steadily for another day. Still at dismal levels though, but activity picked up both out of Australia and Brazil for cargoes in May and June. Paper markets are also starting to move, with front-end papers posting the largest gains."

"Dry bulk: China numbers show no excessive soy bean imports
- The Chinese Government released customs numbers from March this morning, showing a 1.8% increase in iron ore imports m/m. March’s 85.8m tonnes puts Q1’18 flat compared to Q1’17 and a 10.2% decrease y/y – which in our view was as expected due to the recent capesize weakness and loading problems in Brazil in particular.
- Iron ore demand is still very much subject to the appetite for steel, but the increasing inventories have been less worrisome when prices have increased. Inventories now stand at the equivalent of ~50 days of imports, but buying interest is still present as steel mills are expecting an uptick in demand going forward. Prices for both iron ore and steel rebar rose on the report.
- At 26.7m tonnes coal imports were up close to 21% y/y and approximately 17% for the first quarter totals. Contrary to iron ore inventories, coal inventories have actually ecreased over the last years and touched all-time lows in February.
- Soy beans were down y/y and flat for the quarter. The lack of any sign of ‘trade war inventory build’ is positive in our view, implying less fear among importers that the tariffs will materialize. We do however emphasize that any such effect will be more visible on April numbers due to the timing of the tariff announcement"
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KJEPET
13.04.2018 kl 13:30 10552

Det ryktes om nye 5,4% opp på BCI i dag :-)
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Chuck Norris
13.04.2018 kl 14:23 10451

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +5,4% TIL USD 8.811/DAG
12:08
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 5,4 prosent til 8.811 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.
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Chuck Norris
13.04.2018 kl 14:24 10442

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 2,1 prosent til 1.014 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.

Baltic Dry +2,1%
Capesize +5,4%
Panamax +1,2%
Handysize -0,4%
Supramax +0,1%
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Sa2ri
13.04.2018 kl 22:02 10166

Weekly Dry Report
Latest in :
13 April 2018

Bulk report – Week 15
Capesize
Sentiment gathered momentum during the week and rates for the main C5 route improved over $1 to currently stand at almost $6.40, with market talk of fixtures, perhaps around $6.50 level, not yet substantiated. Whilst there has been a lack of timecharter fixtures in the Pacific, the better voyage rates have affected the published values, which have jumped from the low $8,000’s at the end of last week, to $11,750 today. Rates for Teluk Rubiah to Qingdao, have nudged up to $4.65, which was fixed by Vale on the Mineral Subic (179,397 2011). Saldanha Bay to Qingdao, was last fixed at $10.10 by Anglo American on the Xin Fu Hai (178,332 2016). Brazil has not been that active, but a number of the prompter vessels have been covered, and rates for Tubarao to Qingdao are now in the $13’s, with Cargill said to have fixed the Bosporus (179,177 2016) for end-April, loading at $13.50. Similar levels are rumoured for loading ex-Sudeste, with Trafigura linked to the Kyla Fortune (170,726 2001) earlier in the week at $13.45. Refined Success fixed their Drummond to Eren cargo, loading early May, at $7.50 on Bunge tonnage. Arcelormittal fixed the Polymnia (175,800 2011), for Port Cartier to Fos, basis 19/28 April, at $6.50. There was talk of TS Global fixing CCL tonnage for its Narvik to Port Talbot, at $3.95 on their e-platform, however, the business was not concluded, and the cargo was withdrawn.

Earlier in the week, the Ocean Duke (180,361 2010), open Bayuquan 14/20 April, fixed 11-13 months TC $17,000 to Daelim. There was talk of the Koch vessel Mineral Faith (175,620 2012), open Rugao end April, fixing short period to Kore Shipping Corporation. It remains to be seen where the rates go for next week, as owners’ expectations are on the up.

Panamax
After two weeks of relative inactivity on the period market, despite consistent appetite from Charterers, concluded trades resumed this week, as the paper market seemed to signal a bottoming out, and tried to pre-empt a reversal, on the physical market. A modern Kamsarmax, open in the Middle East, fixed at $14,000 for 12-14 months, in addition, several vessels fixed for short periods at similar levels to those seen previously, all at premiums to the current spot market. Vessels in the North Atlantic struggled to achieve levels close to last achieved, as an oversupply of tonnage on early positions played in to charterers’ hands. However, in the South, the market saw a steady volume of fixing all week until Thursday, when sources said the market went “nuts”. With so much fixing, levels have improved, and are back to pre-Easter levels, with a modern Kamsarmax covered at $16,750 plus $675,000 delivery, aps East coast South America, for first half May. By contrast, the Pacific has remained very dull and uninspiring all week, with little fresh enquiry evident, spot rates have slipped, and owners have been looking at either period business or positional cargoes.

Supramax
The week started on a very quiet note; with routes across the board losing momentum. However, as the week comes to a close, more activity is being seen. Little came to light in the way of period activity, but a 56,000-dwt open Paradip, was linked to an index deal for 11-13 months, worldwide trading.

In the Atlantic, a 61,500-dwt vessel was fixed basis delivery US Gulf, for a trip to the Mediterranean, in the mid $16,000s. East Mediterranean struggled, but some said a base might have been found. A 61,000-dwt was fixed, from here, back to the US Gulf, with pig iron, in the low $6,000s. East coast South America remained steady. However, a 66,000-dwt was fixed for a front haul redelivery, Singapore-Japan, in the low $16,000s plus $600,000 ballast bonus.

From Asia, some areas also showed signs that a bottom had been found. A 57,000-dwt open Philippines was fixed for a trip via Indonesia, redelivery India, at $13,500. A 58,000-dwt open Pasir Gudang, was fixed for two to three laden legs at $13,500. A 58,000-dwt was reported fixed for a trip delivery Cebu, via the Philippines redelivery China, with nickel ore, at $13,000. Further north, a 56,000 open CJK, was fixed at $11,000 for a trip via East coast Australia, redelivery India. From the Indian Ocean little came to light, a 56,100-dwt open Mina Saqr, fixed a trip redelivery Persian Gulf, with aggregate, in the mid- high $12,000s. It remains to be seen if clearer gains will be made next week.

Handysize
Improving rates from Skaw-Passero and East coast South America, in addition to continuous falling rates from the US Gulf, set the theme for the week. The Pacific market showed more signs of softening since the beginning of the week.

In the Atlantic, a 37,000-dwt open East coast South America, was fixed for a grain trip to the Baltic Sea, at $12,500 daily. An Imabari 28 type was booked from the US Gulf to the Mediterranean at $10,250 daily. Another 32,000-dwt was reportedly fixed for a trip, also from the US Gulf, with redelivery in the UK Continent, at a relatively low rate of $10,000 per day.

http://thebalticbriefing.com/weekly-bulk-report/
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 20:01 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
16.04.2018 kl 09:10 9804

Snakk om take off :-)

Volum siste 24 timer på DCE iron ore;: 3725240
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Nonnen-42
16.04.2018 kl 11:51 9647

Kjepet, kan du være så snill å utdype dette litt mer for meg (oss) som ikke følger så godt med.
Sammenlignet med tidligere osv. ..Australia vs. Brasil ???
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KJEPET
17.04.2018 kl 08:26 9397

DCE står for "Dalian commodity exchange" og er en råvarebørs i Kina. Den er den største på Iron Ore. Den viser pris og volum på futurekontrakter. Jeg bruker den som en pekepinn på etterspørselen ved å se på utviklingen i volumet. Som du ser har volumet tatt seg kraftig opp de siste tre ukene. Det lover gått for utviklingen videre og malm skal skal fraktes.

Det var relativt lav eksport fra Vale (81 MT) i Q1, men Vale står fortsatt på guidingen på 390 MT for året.

Det som er mest morsomt er å lese om alle som blir overrasket over at vi fortsatt har god vekst i Kina. Det har gått sport i å spå krakk i Kina over flere år nå. Men kineserne er som mennesker flest. De ønsker videre utvikling av velferden og bygger mer og større. Og i Kina bor det MANGE mennesker:-)

Link til DCE iron Ore: http://www.dce.com.cn/DCE/Products/Industrial/Iron%20Ore/
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Kbkristi
17.04.2018 kl 08:28 9403

Vi som skjønner savnet av volumet, kan glede oss, Kjepet. Pengene nå ligger kanskje hos Nas, men kommer tilbake til shipping om ikke så lenge. På høy tid å akumeullere:)
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Sa2ri
17.04.2018 kl 16:35 9185

Kanskje vi får en ok dag i morgen også?

FFA: Capes started pushing early doors and continued firmer European open on back of chatter of much firmer physical in both basins in good volume throughout. PMX flat to touch lower with cautious selling due to Cape strength.
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KJEPET
17.04.2018 kl 20:35 8905

Full fart helt til close. (Men GOGL snart i minus over dammen)

FFA: Capes held morning gains and trading at the highs into the close with May printing 14600 and June 16600. Panamax not so much with lowers lows post index and sellers willing last done across the curve
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