GOGL - April 2018 #1
Shipping Q1: Asia Pacific dry freight market stutters after promising start
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 04/04/2018
The story of the Asia Pacific dry bulk markets for 2018 has been that of a promising start, but a shaky entry into the second quarter and a hopeful medium term, based on the trends that emerged from Q1.
Almost all the segments of the dry bulk market — Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize — started the year on a very steady note.
However, towards the end of Q1, the market started to lose momentum with the rates seeing a mini-collapse.
CAPESIZE — THE RISE AND FALL
Despite a rather positive start to the year, Asia Pacific and Atlantic Capesize freight rates trended downwards during Q1.
While cargo volumes in the Asia Pacific region remained healthy, the dearth of cargoes and oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic region was one of the major factors weakening the market as a whole. This has seen shipowners opting for short-haul voyages, mainly out of Australia.
“At current levels, there aren’t many owners who are willing to consider ballasting their vessels to the Atlantic — with the transatlantic rates being so depressed, Brazil is the only real option, but the freight rates for even that route has reduced,” a ship-operating source tracking the Capesize market said.
The source added that given the circumstances, owners are leaning towards fixing their vessels on short voyages, which have added more pressure on the Pacific market, leading to the fall in freight levels.
Participants have mixed views on the Capesize market’s outlook. Some of them continue to remain bullish due to the healthy demand for the period business, which involves charterers locking-in vessels for a sizable duration.
“When Capesize rates come back with the seasonal uplift, all rates will see a benefit,” Robert Bugbee, president of Scorpio Bulkers, said at a dry bulk shipping roundtable organized recently in the US by Morgan Stanley.
Bugbee added that Capesize rates are expected to reach $50,000/day within this year.
At the same time, those who are bearish think that the lower commodity prices and the weak market fundamentals, especially in the Atlantic region, will continue to pressure the market.
Q1 was relatively stable compared with the same period during 2017. The key Port Hedland, Western Australia, to Qingdao, China, Capesize route saw a minimum of $6,358/day and a maximum of $14,806/day as per Platts’ time charter equivalent, or TCE, assessments in 2018 so far, compared to a minimum of minus $485/day and a high of $18,094/day in 2017.
On the other main Capesize routes, too, Q1 2018 performed better with routes such as Tubarao to Qingdao registering between $8,997/day to $16,216/day versus $2,884/day to $18,754/day in Q1 2017.
PANAMAX: GRAIN DEMAND IS THE KEY
The Asia Pacific Panamax freight rates generally trended higher through Q1 2018.
While demand within the Pacific region was flat through the past quarter except for a short spike in China’s coal demand during January, the robust grain trade out of east coast South America, or ECSA, was a key driver for this segment.
This encouraged many owners to ballast their ships from the Asia Pacific into the Atlantic, which helped restrict tonnage supply in the eastern hemisphere and boosted freight levels.
The jostling by ship-operators to take vessels on short period had created a strong floor for the rates. Most of these vessels fixed on period were directed to ECSA to load grains.
Looking ahead, demand from coal is not expected to increase substantially into China or India. Also, the low Capesize freight rates have encouraged charterers to combine Panamax cargoes on the Capesize vessels where possible.
The mainstay for the Panamax segment will continue to be the grain cargoes out of ECSA, the Black Sea and the North Pacific to sustain the rates that were seen during Q1 2018.
SUPRAMAX — NO COAL COMFORT
The Supramax market in the Asia Pacific remained buoyant through Q1 2018, finding support due to a combination of factors, such as strong Chinese demand for seaborne coal during January and first-half February, and congestions at some Chinese ports, Bangladesh’s Chittagong port and India’s Haldia port.
The healthy demand from clinker and nickel ore cargoes towards the end of the quarter, as well as vessels ballasting out of the region to grain cargoes, helped strengthen the Supramax market.
While demand for moving coal cargoes to China has dropped since the Lunar New Year, cargoes like clinker and nickel ore are expected to lend support going into the next quarter.
The TCE for a 57,000 dwt vessel, delivered at Singapore to do a trip via South Kalimantan to east coast India, averaged close to $14,200/d in March compared to $11,405/d during the same period last year.
The uptick in the number of coal cargoes moving towards India compared with China suggests that tonnage continued to drain away from the Pacific towards the Indian Ocean.
The burgeoning demand to move limestone and petcoke out of the Persian Gulf has increased employment opportunities for Supramax vessels.
Source: Platts
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipping-q1-asia-pacific-dry-freight-market-stutters-after-promising-start/
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 04/04/2018
The story of the Asia Pacific dry bulk markets for 2018 has been that of a promising start, but a shaky entry into the second quarter and a hopeful medium term, based on the trends that emerged from Q1.
Almost all the segments of the dry bulk market — Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize — started the year on a very steady note.
However, towards the end of Q1, the market started to lose momentum with the rates seeing a mini-collapse.
CAPESIZE — THE RISE AND FALL
Despite a rather positive start to the year, Asia Pacific and Atlantic Capesize freight rates trended downwards during Q1.
While cargo volumes in the Asia Pacific region remained healthy, the dearth of cargoes and oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic region was one of the major factors weakening the market as a whole. This has seen shipowners opting for short-haul voyages, mainly out of Australia.
“At current levels, there aren’t many owners who are willing to consider ballasting their vessels to the Atlantic — with the transatlantic rates being so depressed, Brazil is the only real option, but the freight rates for even that route has reduced,” a ship-operating source tracking the Capesize market said.
The source added that given the circumstances, owners are leaning towards fixing their vessels on short voyages, which have added more pressure on the Pacific market, leading to the fall in freight levels.
Participants have mixed views on the Capesize market’s outlook. Some of them continue to remain bullish due to the healthy demand for the period business, which involves charterers locking-in vessels for a sizable duration.
“When Capesize rates come back with the seasonal uplift, all rates will see a benefit,” Robert Bugbee, president of Scorpio Bulkers, said at a dry bulk shipping roundtable organized recently in the US by Morgan Stanley.
Bugbee added that Capesize rates are expected to reach $50,000/day within this year.
At the same time, those who are bearish think that the lower commodity prices and the weak market fundamentals, especially in the Atlantic region, will continue to pressure the market.
Q1 was relatively stable compared with the same period during 2017. The key Port Hedland, Western Australia, to Qingdao, China, Capesize route saw a minimum of $6,358/day and a maximum of $14,806/day as per Platts’ time charter equivalent, or TCE, assessments in 2018 so far, compared to a minimum of minus $485/day and a high of $18,094/day in 2017.
On the other main Capesize routes, too, Q1 2018 performed better with routes such as Tubarao to Qingdao registering between $8,997/day to $16,216/day versus $2,884/day to $18,754/day in Q1 2017.
PANAMAX: GRAIN DEMAND IS THE KEY
The Asia Pacific Panamax freight rates generally trended higher through Q1 2018.
While demand within the Pacific region was flat through the past quarter except for a short spike in China’s coal demand during January, the robust grain trade out of east coast South America, or ECSA, was a key driver for this segment.
This encouraged many owners to ballast their ships from the Asia Pacific into the Atlantic, which helped restrict tonnage supply in the eastern hemisphere and boosted freight levels.
The jostling by ship-operators to take vessels on short period had created a strong floor for the rates. Most of these vessels fixed on period were directed to ECSA to load grains.
Looking ahead, demand from coal is not expected to increase substantially into China or India. Also, the low Capesize freight rates have encouraged charterers to combine Panamax cargoes on the Capesize vessels where possible.
The mainstay for the Panamax segment will continue to be the grain cargoes out of ECSA, the Black Sea and the North Pacific to sustain the rates that were seen during Q1 2018.
SUPRAMAX — NO COAL COMFORT
The Supramax market in the Asia Pacific remained buoyant through Q1 2018, finding support due to a combination of factors, such as strong Chinese demand for seaborne coal during January and first-half February, and congestions at some Chinese ports, Bangladesh’s Chittagong port and India’s Haldia port.
The healthy demand from clinker and nickel ore cargoes towards the end of the quarter, as well as vessels ballasting out of the region to grain cargoes, helped strengthen the Supramax market.
While demand for moving coal cargoes to China has dropped since the Lunar New Year, cargoes like clinker and nickel ore are expected to lend support going into the next quarter.
The TCE for a 57,000 dwt vessel, delivered at Singapore to do a trip via South Kalimantan to east coast India, averaged close to $14,200/d in March compared to $11,405/d during the same period last year.
The uptick in the number of coal cargoes moving towards India compared with China suggests that tonnage continued to drain away from the Pacific towards the Indian Ocean.
The burgeoning demand to move limestone and petcoke out of the Persian Gulf has increased employment opportunities for Supramax vessels.
Source: Platts
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipping-q1-asia-pacific-dry-freight-market-stutters-after-promising-start/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:14
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Sa2ri
18.04.2018 kl 07:24
8503
Takk, men artikkelen ligger bak betalmur. Kan du legge ut deler av innholdet som er av interesse?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
18.04.2018 kl 08:19
8438
Ser at den ligger bak betalingsmur nå ja. Fikk tilgang til den via Twitter i dag tidlig.
Kort oppsummert gikk det ut på produksjonen av stål og jern hadde forflyttet seg til andre steder i landet på grunn av miljøbegrensingene. De viste også til at det var full aktivitet til tross for tollinnførselen i US.
EIDT: Over 4 MT omsatt på DCE siste døgn. Kan ikke huske å ha sett det før. Noen andre som har sett over 4 i omsetning der før?
Kort oppsummert gikk det ut på produksjonen av stål og jern hadde forflyttet seg til andre steder i landet på grunn av miljøbegrensingene. De viste også til at det var full aktivitet til tross for tollinnførselen i US.
EIDT: Over 4 MT omsatt på DCE siste døgn. Kan ikke huske å ha sett det før. Noen andre som har sett over 4 i omsetning der før?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Nå får vi reprising av GOGL. Kina går som det griner (ref meldingene i går). Ser 70 igjen til uka.
RT 64,4 og opp 1.74%
RT 64,4 og opp 1.74%
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
18.04.2018 kl 09:18
8363
Fra PAS sin Shipping DAily:
"Capesizes showing some positivity after Vale maintained its yearly guidance yesterday, and the Brazil-China route posted the biggest gains. Weaker out of Australia, but newest Rio Tinto data show a 5% year-on-year increase in Q1 iron ore shipments."
"Capesizes showing some positivity after Vale maintained its yearly guidance yesterday, and the Brazil-China route posted the biggest gains. Weaker out of Australia, but newest Rio Tinto data show a 5% year-on-year increase in Q1 iron ore shipments."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
18.04.2018 kl 11:32
8220
Det strammer seg til nå. Denne på Twitter nå:
"Capesize market firms up in #Atlantic"
"Capesize market firms up in #Atlantic"
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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(",)Aksjel
18.04.2018 kl 14:28
8043
BULK:BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN +6,8% TIL 1.124 POENG
14:05
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 6,8 prosent til 1.124 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange onsdag.
Baltic Dry +6,8%
Capesize +19,9%
Panamax -1,8%
Handysize -0,1%
Supramax +0,5%
Benyttet annledningen å kjøpe SBULK i dag foruten en god posisjon GOGL :-)
14:05
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 6,8 prosent til 1.124 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange onsdag.
Baltic Dry +6,8%
Capesize +19,9%
Panamax -1,8%
Handysize -0,1%
Supramax +0,5%
Benyttet annledningen å kjøpe SBULK i dag foruten en god posisjon GOGL :-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
18.04.2018 kl 15:35
7917
FFA: Capes pushing again with good buying across the curve and continued firmer and trading at the highs post index PMX dipped early but seeing support on back of Cape strength.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
18.04.2018 kl 18:08
7743
FFA: Capes again firmer with highest prints once again at the close, May 16600 June 17750 and Q3 18750. PMX flat trading at or near lows of the day, light PM trading in all asset classes.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
18.04.2018 kl 18:32
7701
Hva skjedde på DCE i dag? Sykeste volumet jeg har sett. Trodde den ikke åpnet før 4. mai for utlendinger. Noen som vet hvorfor volumet eksploderte i dag?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Hvor høyt skal baltic dry og capesize?...
Baltic dry index var på 1294 18.April 2017 og vi er nå på 1052...men i 2017 gikk det nedover mot 800 i juni...skal vi ikke dit i år?....er det slik at det ikke er sesongmessige svingninger i denne?....det kan se ut som at det historisk ikke er noe sammenheng mellom nivå og årstid?...eller!?...se link nedenfor...
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Baltic dry index var på 1294 18.April 2017 og vi er nå på 1052...men i 2017 gikk det nedover mot 800 i juni...skal vi ikke dit i år?....er det slik at det ikke er sesongmessige svingninger i denne?....det kan se ut som at det historisk ikke er noe sammenheng mellom nivå og årstid?...eller!?...se link nedenfor...
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Ny dag, nye muligheter for GOGL til å runder 70 igjen
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
19.04.2018 kl 07:51
7311
@AmatørTrader
Helt umulig å si hvor høyt BCI (capeindex) kan gå. Bulk har helt klart sesongmessige svingninger. Q1 er som regel dårligst og Q4 som regel best.
I år har det vært mange ytre påvirkninger som har forskjøvet sesongen litt. Dette førte til at mange investorer kastet kortene, uten å se på det fundamentale bak. Du har hatt miljøkravet i Kina, flere kraftige stormer, trøbbel med jernbaner etc ved gruvene. Alt dette er også omtalt som en perfekt storm av samlede hendelser.
Når nå disse "hendelsene" forsvinner får vi ketchup effekt som vi ser nå. Regnperioden i Brasil går mot slutten, Kina er i gang med "construction season" ++. Hvor dette ender er ikke lett å si, men personlig mener jeg vi har minst et par gode år igjen i bulk. Mest sannsynlig oppstår euforien innen bulk en gang mellom sommeren 2020 og sommeren 2021. Da gjelder det å time utgangen. Men det er fortsatt en god stund til, og GOGL-kursen skal minimun doble seg innen den tid.
Forøvrig nytt kjempevolum omsatt på DCE i dag, runder 4 også i dag ser det ut til, og prisen går bananas også:-)
Helt umulig å si hvor høyt BCI (capeindex) kan gå. Bulk har helt klart sesongmessige svingninger. Q1 er som regel dårligst og Q4 som regel best.
I år har det vært mange ytre påvirkninger som har forskjøvet sesongen litt. Dette førte til at mange investorer kastet kortene, uten å se på det fundamentale bak. Du har hatt miljøkravet i Kina, flere kraftige stormer, trøbbel med jernbaner etc ved gruvene. Alt dette er også omtalt som en perfekt storm av samlede hendelser.
Når nå disse "hendelsene" forsvinner får vi ketchup effekt som vi ser nå. Regnperioden i Brasil går mot slutten, Kina er i gang med "construction season" ++. Hvor dette ender er ikke lett å si, men personlig mener jeg vi har minst et par gode år igjen i bulk. Mest sannsynlig oppstår euforien innen bulk en gang mellom sommeren 2020 og sommeren 2021. Da gjelder det å time utgangen. Men det er fortsatt en god stund til, og GOGL-kursen skal minimun doble seg innen den tid.
Forøvrig nytt kjempevolum omsatt på DCE i dag, runder 4 også i dag ser det ut til, og prisen går bananas også:-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
19.04.2018 kl 08:30
7243
BULK:CAPESIZE-MARKEDET NÆR VED Å HENTE SEG INN -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-markedet er endelig nær ved å innhente seg, med økt antall laster ut fra Brasil og Sør-Afrika.
Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.
For panamaxene har det vært en svak uke på begge halvkuler, med rater på rundt samme nivåer som foregående uke.
For supramaxene har starten av uken vært svak, men aktiviteten har bedret seg noe ved midten av uken.
RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 24.000 18.200 18.000/37.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 6,40 5,30 5,30/10,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 6,00 5,50 5,40/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 10.250 10.250 9.500/13.750
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.500 17.500 16.500/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.600 4.500 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 9.750 10.250 9.000/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 11.750 11.500 11.500/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 10.750 10.500 8.000/11.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 18.000 18.500 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 18.000 18.000 17.000/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 17.250 16.500 16.000/17.100
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 11.750 11.750 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.000 12.250 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Den ukentlige oppdateringen fra Fernley finner du her: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/fw_week_16_2018b.pdf
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-markedet er endelig nær ved å innhente seg, med økt antall laster ut fra Brasil og Sør-Afrika.
Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.
For panamaxene har det vært en svak uke på begge halvkuler, med rater på rundt samme nivåer som foregående uke.
For supramaxene har starten av uken vært svak, men aktiviteten har bedret seg noe ved midten av uken.
RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 24.000 18.200 18.000/37.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 6,40 5,30 5,30/10,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 6,00 5,50 5,40/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 10.250 10.250 9.500/13.750
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.500 17.500 16.500/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.600 4.500 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 9.750 10.250 9.000/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 11.750 11.500 11.500/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 10.750 10.500 8.000/11.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 18.000 18.500 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 18.000 18.000 17.000/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 17.250 16.500 16.000/17.100
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 11.750 11.750 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.000 12.250 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Den ukentlige oppdateringen fra Fernley finner du her: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/fw_week_16_2018b.pdf
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Ja, det kan se ut som at vi får en ketchup effekt....index opp til 1,124 i dag (+6,84%)...https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
19.04.2018 kl 08:35
7226
Ja, https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND viser gårsdagens tall (18. april).
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
19.04.2018 kl 15:02
6911
Pust i bakken?
"FFA: Levels are relatively flat across the board. Capes posted another strong index but was well within the expected range and already discounted."
"FFA: Levels are relatively flat across the board. Capes posted another strong index but was well within the expected range and already discounted."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
19.04.2018 kl 19:15
6771
Fra Twitter:
"#Capesize Impressive frt rates in Pac/Atl and expected ongoing increase #reported 182k dwt dely S.Korea via Aus redel Spore-Japan $15.5k daily 1 yr T/C week 15 usd 17k/18k"
"#Capesize Impressive frt rates in Pac/Atl and expected ongoing increase #reported 182k dwt dely S.Korea via Aus redel Spore-Japan $15.5k daily 1 yr T/C week 15 usd 17k/18k"
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
20.04.2018 kl 15:10
9198
Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Paper Market Gains
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/04/2018
Capesize FFA Commentary:
The cape market was hotter than a chicken vindaloo with the physical market seeing gains in both oceans and all routes marked sharply higher. The paper market saw offers gobbled up in a frenzy not seen since West Ham offered a 2 for 1 deal on jellied eels. If it looks good, smells good then often, its pretty good and that’s the feeling for the big ships. Long may it continue.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
It was a relatively flat range bound day on Panamax paper with the rally on Capes unsettling the overall bearish tone. As a result sellers were willing to test last done but unwilling to chase it much lower, particularly as the rate of decline on the index begins to slow.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
We opened the day on a much more positive note than we have seen lately with good bid support as rates ticked up throughout the day. June was trading in $11300-$11600 range and the Q3 several times $11700. Although the Pmx felt some heavy selling pressure Supramax remained stable as we once again drifted to a close with limited afternoon activity.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Very quiet day on the handysize paper, with little change down the curve. No reported trades.
Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-paper-market-gains/
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/04/2018
Capesize FFA Commentary:
The cape market was hotter than a chicken vindaloo with the physical market seeing gains in both oceans and all routes marked sharply higher. The paper market saw offers gobbled up in a frenzy not seen since West Ham offered a 2 for 1 deal on jellied eels. If it looks good, smells good then often, its pretty good and that’s the feeling for the big ships. Long may it continue.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
It was a relatively flat range bound day on Panamax paper with the rally on Capes unsettling the overall bearish tone. As a result sellers were willing to test last done but unwilling to chase it much lower, particularly as the rate of decline on the index begins to slow.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
We opened the day on a much more positive note than we have seen lately with good bid support as rates ticked up throughout the day. June was trading in $11300-$11600 range and the Q3 several times $11700. Although the Pmx felt some heavy selling pressure Supramax remained stable as we once again drifted to a close with limited afternoon activity.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Very quiet day on the handysize paper, with little change down the curve. No reported trades.
Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-paper-market-gains/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
20.04.2018 kl 18:34
9063
Bulk report – Week 16
20 April 2018
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, from mid-$13.00s, to somewhere in the $18.00s. Despite all this activity, the West Australia ore rates have moved a modest amount. There have been daily fluctuations, with FMG paying $7.50 for a prompt ship, compared to rates of around the $6.50 level the previous week. Fewer fixtures have emerged on timecharter, with a 14-year old 180,000-tonner fixing from Rizhao for a round voyage in the East, at $15,000 daily. While earlier this week, the Aqua Vision (180,353 2011), open Zhuhai 20-23 April, went to Jiangsu Steamship in direct continuation for an Australian round voyage at $12,950. Saldanha Bay/Qingdao rates firmed, last done was $12.80 on the Mineral Stonehenge for early May loading to Anglo American. There was a little period activity, with ArcelorMittal re-letting the Pelopidas (176,006 2011), open China 1-5 May for 9-12 months, at $17,850, in addition to the Pacific Bulk vessel Cape Splendor (206,070 2014), agreeing $23,500 retroactive, sailing to Lanshan 10 April, for balance of period (about 7-9 months). However, in both cases a charterer was not reported.
Panamax
Period interest continued, despite the disparity with spot rates, with the ongoing improvement in the Cape market further boosting the sentiment. The paper market tried to bounce a few times this week, but the declining BPI repeatedly dampened resolve. The North Atlantic was very active in the first half of the week, with a decent clear out of early tonnage, however, rates still softened and there were many reports of ships fixed on timecharter, which, proved to be the equivalent to voyages rates. Further South, East coast South America maintained a reasonable cargo demand, but this was matched by supply, so rates drifted as the week progressed from around $16,500 plus $650,000 ballast bonus for front haul on a modern Kamsarmax, to around $15,500 plus $550,000 ballast bonus. The Pacific remained subdued throughout the week, with a lack of mineral cargoes and an abundance of early ships putting rates under pressure. Those particularly impacted, being Post Panamaxes, however, NoPac grains saw a steady volume of fixing, and rates here showed a little more resistance. Expectation was more optimistic for later dates, with several brokers noting healthy enquiry on forward positions.
Supramax
Overall a week lacking activity in the Atlantic, but some suggested a floor might have been found in certain areas. Most of the Atlantic routes made gains, and the US Gulf market was picking up again towards the weekend. However, it was also reported that a longer tonnage list was evolving in the Mediterranean, with more market players keen to take vessels for period in the area, but was still fairly flat in East coast South America. In the Pacific, it remained a struggle for the rates to achieve the last done level.
A 57,000-dwt open Canakkale, was fixed via the Black Sea and Red Sea, to redeliver in Port Said at $9,500 early part of the week. A 63,000-dwt open Iskenderun, was booked West Africa with clinker, at $10,500. From the US Gulf, a 58,000-dwt was fixed from South-West Pass for grain, to West coast Central America, at a rate around $20,000. Another Ultramax vessel went from the US Gulf area at $24,000 to the East. From East coast South America, a 58,000-dwt was fixed at $16,500 to the Mediterranean; another similar-sized agreed a trip to Adabiya, with redelivery in Port Said, at $17,000 basis, Tubarao delivery.
In the Pacific, steel runs from North China to South-East Asia, were reported ranging from $8,000 to $9,000. Nickel ore trips were fixed at $12,000 on Ultramax vessel open Thailand, or, $10,000 on a 53,000-dwt open South China. Two 56,000-dwt open Hong Kong and Singapore were fixed for Indonesia coal trips to China, at $9,500 and $11,000 respectively. A coal trip from Indonesia to West coast India, was reportedly done at the low $13,000s on a 58,000-dwt basis delivery Cebu, and $9,000 on a 56,000-dwt basis delivery South China. From the Indian Ocean, a 56,000-dwt delivery Bandar Imam Khomeini, was fixed for moving sulphur, via Iran, to China at $15,000. An iron ore trip from Iran to China paid $16,000 on a 58,000-dwt basis delivery Mesaieed.
Handysize
The Pacific basin saw a continuous fall throughout the week, and the negative sentiment continued in the US Gulf, while the rates struggled to push up further from East coast South America. Most of the areas remained largely flat. On the period front, a 38,000-dwt open Paranagua, was booked for four to six months at $13,000 redelivery in the Atlantic.
A voyage fixture of 40,000 tonnes, 10% stem, from Up-River to Algeria, was booked at $30.75, with 8,000mt load and 5,000mt discharge plus 5% total commission structure. A 28,000-dwt open Dneprobugsky, was fixed for a front haul business, with long duration, at a rate in the low $13,000s. A voyage fixture of 25,000-tonnes, 10% barley, was done from Rouen to Tunisia, at $23.75, with 10,000 mt load and 2,500 mt discharge. From the East, a 28,000-dwt open Busan, was booked for a trip via Japan to South-East Asia with scrap cargo, at $8,300. A 37,000-dwt open Lanqiao, was concluded to move logs from New Zealand to China, at $11,500. A 38,000-dwt open Sandakan was fixed for a trip, via Australia, to North China with alumina, at $10,250.
For daily dry bulk assessments from the Baltic Exchange please visit www.balticexchange.com/market-information/
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-16-2/
20 April 2018
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, from mid-$13.00s, to somewhere in the $18.00s. Despite all this activity, the West Australia ore rates have moved a modest amount. There have been daily fluctuations, with FMG paying $7.50 for a prompt ship, compared to rates of around the $6.50 level the previous week. Fewer fixtures have emerged on timecharter, with a 14-year old 180,000-tonner fixing from Rizhao for a round voyage in the East, at $15,000 daily. While earlier this week, the Aqua Vision (180,353 2011), open Zhuhai 20-23 April, went to Jiangsu Steamship in direct continuation for an Australian round voyage at $12,950. Saldanha Bay/Qingdao rates firmed, last done was $12.80 on the Mineral Stonehenge for early May loading to Anglo American. There was a little period activity, with ArcelorMittal re-letting the Pelopidas (176,006 2011), open China 1-5 May for 9-12 months, at $17,850, in addition to the Pacific Bulk vessel Cape Splendor (206,070 2014), agreeing $23,500 retroactive, sailing to Lanshan 10 April, for balance of period (about 7-9 months). However, in both cases a charterer was not reported.
Panamax
Period interest continued, despite the disparity with spot rates, with the ongoing improvement in the Cape market further boosting the sentiment. The paper market tried to bounce a few times this week, but the declining BPI repeatedly dampened resolve. The North Atlantic was very active in the first half of the week, with a decent clear out of early tonnage, however, rates still softened and there were many reports of ships fixed on timecharter, which, proved to be the equivalent to voyages rates. Further South, East coast South America maintained a reasonable cargo demand, but this was matched by supply, so rates drifted as the week progressed from around $16,500 plus $650,000 ballast bonus for front haul on a modern Kamsarmax, to around $15,500 plus $550,000 ballast bonus. The Pacific remained subdued throughout the week, with a lack of mineral cargoes and an abundance of early ships putting rates under pressure. Those particularly impacted, being Post Panamaxes, however, NoPac grains saw a steady volume of fixing, and rates here showed a little more resistance. Expectation was more optimistic for later dates, with several brokers noting healthy enquiry on forward positions.
Supramax
Overall a week lacking activity in the Atlantic, but some suggested a floor might have been found in certain areas. Most of the Atlantic routes made gains, and the US Gulf market was picking up again towards the weekend. However, it was also reported that a longer tonnage list was evolving in the Mediterranean, with more market players keen to take vessels for period in the area, but was still fairly flat in East coast South America. In the Pacific, it remained a struggle for the rates to achieve the last done level.
A 57,000-dwt open Canakkale, was fixed via the Black Sea and Red Sea, to redeliver in Port Said at $9,500 early part of the week. A 63,000-dwt open Iskenderun, was booked West Africa with clinker, at $10,500. From the US Gulf, a 58,000-dwt was fixed from South-West Pass for grain, to West coast Central America, at a rate around $20,000. Another Ultramax vessel went from the US Gulf area at $24,000 to the East. From East coast South America, a 58,000-dwt was fixed at $16,500 to the Mediterranean; another similar-sized agreed a trip to Adabiya, with redelivery in Port Said, at $17,000 basis, Tubarao delivery.
In the Pacific, steel runs from North China to South-East Asia, were reported ranging from $8,000 to $9,000. Nickel ore trips were fixed at $12,000 on Ultramax vessel open Thailand, or, $10,000 on a 53,000-dwt open South China. Two 56,000-dwt open Hong Kong and Singapore were fixed for Indonesia coal trips to China, at $9,500 and $11,000 respectively. A coal trip from Indonesia to West coast India, was reportedly done at the low $13,000s on a 58,000-dwt basis delivery Cebu, and $9,000 on a 56,000-dwt basis delivery South China. From the Indian Ocean, a 56,000-dwt delivery Bandar Imam Khomeini, was fixed for moving sulphur, via Iran, to China at $15,000. An iron ore trip from Iran to China paid $16,000 on a 58,000-dwt basis delivery Mesaieed.
Handysize
The Pacific basin saw a continuous fall throughout the week, and the negative sentiment continued in the US Gulf, while the rates struggled to push up further from East coast South America. Most of the areas remained largely flat. On the period front, a 38,000-dwt open Paranagua, was booked for four to six months at $13,000 redelivery in the Atlantic.
A voyage fixture of 40,000 tonnes, 10% stem, from Up-River to Algeria, was booked at $30.75, with 8,000mt load and 5,000mt discharge plus 5% total commission structure. A 28,000-dwt open Dneprobugsky, was fixed for a front haul business, with long duration, at a rate in the low $13,000s. A voyage fixture of 25,000-tonnes, 10% barley, was done from Rouen to Tunisia, at $23.75, with 10,000 mt load and 2,500 mt discharge. From the East, a 28,000-dwt open Busan, was booked for a trip via Japan to South-East Asia with scrap cargo, at $8,300. A 37,000-dwt open Lanqiao, was concluded to move logs from New Zealand to China, at $11,500. A 38,000-dwt open Sandakan was fixed for a trip, via Australia, to North China with alumina, at $10,250.
For daily dry bulk assessments from the Baltic Exchange please visit www.balticexchange.com/market-information/
http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-16-2/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
20.04.2018 kl 19:06
9016
FIS Technical: The Capesize index is now back into bullish territory with the next key obstacle at USD 16,275 the 200 period MA. May futures should now be considered as technically bullish, price action is slowing down with a stochastic at 91.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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HVordan ligger ratene an denne uken?
Ser vi 70++ denne uken??
Ser vi 70++ denne uken??
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
23.04.2018 kl 08:46
8687
Spennende uke. Tipper vi får knalltall klokka 12.00 i dag på BCI. Kjører vi igjennom 200 MA (ca. 67.-) nå så utløser det et kraftig kjøpssignal.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Kbkristi
23.04.2018 kl 11:06
8506
Det er nok en dag med kjempevolum på frakt av malm. 4,28 mill tonn. Så det er mange skip som er blitt fylt opp. Ikke unaturlig at det er færre skip som kan tilby sine tjenester, og dermed presse ratene opp :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
24.04.2018 kl 09:11
8172
Fra PAS sin Shipping DAily I dag:
"In dry bulk, capesizes continue to show some strength as both the Australian and Brazilian market holds up. May and June papers quoted above USD 17,000/day, which is in sharp contrast to what we observed only a week ago."
"In dry bulk, capesizes continue to show some strength as both the Australian and Brazilian market holds up. May and June papers quoted above USD 17,000/day, which is in sharp contrast to what we observed only a week ago."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
24.04.2018 kl 09:20
8147
Da smalt kursen opp igjennom 200MA:-) Kjøpssignal!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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domboshawa
24.04.2018 kl 09:28
8124
Capesize This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, from mid-$13.00s, to somewhere in the $18.00s. Despite all this activity, the West Australia ore rates have moved a modest amount. There have been daily fluctuations, with FMG paying $7.50 for a prompt ship, compared to rates of around the $6.50 level the previous week. Fewer fixtures have emerged on timecharter, with a 14-year old 180,000-tonner fixing from Rizhao for a round voyage in the
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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KJEPET
24.04.2018 kl 15:48
7870
Ser ut som om rebar/jern/stål-etterspørsel i Kina skyter fart nå. God margin på rebar drar med seg malmen. Det kom sent i gang i år (av mange forskjellige årsaker). Men nå ser det ut som om snøballen har begynt å rulle for fullt:-) Mange utålmodige sjeler som ble ristet ut på nedgangen (intradag) til 53.-.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Shippingballs
24.04.2018 kl 15:56
7855
Bare vi holder oss over 67ish ut dagen nå, og ratene ikke stuper i morgen, så blir dette bra.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Volf
24.04.2018 kl 18:12
7691
Ja shippingballs er stor mulighet for at vi skal oppå teste kr 70 og kanskje litt høyere men GOGL bryter ikke gjennom støtten på kr 73, av grunner jeg forklarte tidligere og det er ingenting som er forandret der,
Jeg begynte å selle meg ut av GOGL i dag da jeg synes den begynner å bli for høyt priset (magefølelse) men kan ikke sette fingeren på hvorfor venter derfor en dag eller to før jeg seller alle mine GOGL aksjer og går skort igjen.
For en ting er sikkert GOGL og børsen skal ned.
Ha en fortsatt fin kveld og lykke til med investeringene.
Jeg begynte å selle meg ut av GOGL i dag da jeg synes den begynner å bli for høyt priset (magefølelse) men kan ikke sette fingeren på hvorfor venter derfor en dag eller to før jeg seller alle mine GOGL aksjer og går skort igjen.
For en ting er sikkert GOGL og børsen skal ned.
Ha en fortsatt fin kveld og lykke til med investeringene.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Kbkristi
24.04.2018 kl 21:04
7493
Fikk også solgt noe idag. Det går utforbakke over dammen i kveld Hva er en bra inngang igjen nå da Volf? :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Sa2ri
24.04.2018 kl 21:22
7474
After rising 79% w/w on Friday, #Capesize spot started the week more muted in concert w #FFA. BCI @ $17,084 today (+3.9%) w May FFA up to nearly $18k and June steady at $17k. Our 2Q18 forecast of $15k stands firm while we eagerly await short term direction $GOGL $SBLK $GNK $SHIP
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Hvordan ser ratene ut i dag ? Jeg solgte litt i går, men håper at gogl går over 70 denne uken..
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Volf
25.04.2018 kl 08:29
7219
Kbkristi og god morgen.er meget usikker på videre kursutvikling , men en får satse på at støtten på kr 63 holder så mellom kr 63-65 må være bra kjøpskurs.
Lykke til.
Lykke til.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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RedRabbit
25.04.2018 kl 10:28
7049
Magefølelsen din stemmer forbløffende godt Volf, denne gangen også. Imponert over dine timinger og meget takknemlig for dine kommentarer. Lærer underveis. Selv har jeg mer nerver og mindre kompetantanse enn deg, og har sittet rolig i båten siden 5/25,-. Så jeg sitter fortsatt her midtskips og venter på at kursen skal over 100,-. Når tror du vi bryter denne 75,- barrieren? Høsten først? Det bør jo løsne snart!? Trenden er der.....
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Volf
25.04.2018 kl 12:04
6925
RedRabbit takker for fine ord men vær oppmerksom på at jeg gjør mange feil også.
så til spørsmålet f
jeg tror ikke vi bryter motstand ved kr 73-76 før vi har testet støtten på ca kr 47,50. og det kan ta lang tid for akkurat nå trur jeg støtten på kr 63 eller 66 holder og vi forsetter opp til nevnte motstand på kr 73-76.
Lykke til med dine investeringer.
så til spørsmålet f
jeg tror ikke vi bryter motstand ved kr 73-76 før vi har testet støtten på ca kr 47,50. og det kan ta lang tid for akkurat nå trur jeg støtten på kr 63 eller 66 holder og vi forsetter opp til nevnte motstand på kr 73-76.
Lykke til med dine investeringer.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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Kbkristi
25.04.2018 kl 13:06
6822
Takk Volf, men får lett abstinenser, så jeg er all inn igjen på 66,25 :) Tør ikke være så lenge ute.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:33
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