Jeg satt faktisk med fingeren på salgsknappen i går, men beholdt GOGL-aksjene. Torsdag og fredag bør bli bra. Det hadde vært herlig å avslutte uken på nordsiden av 60-tallet.

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om seks capesize-spotslutninger onsdag, der samtlige er for jernmalm.
I tillegg ble det sluttet fire periodeslutninger, der en er for det 2011-bygde skipet "Aquaenna" for en periode på 11-13 måneder til en dagrate på 20.500 dollar pr dag, og en er for det 2010-bygde skipet "Stella Ada" for en periode på 11-13 måneder med Daelim til en dagrate på 21.750 dollar. "Argentina" og "Great Yuan", begge skip bygd i 2010 og operert av NYK, er begge for en periode på 10-13 måneder, men til dagrater på henholdsvis 21.750 og 20.250 dollar pr dag.
Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group onsdag.
Det ble sluttet fire spotreiser fra Australia, der tre går til Kina og en går til Japan. Det ble også sluttet en reise fra Brasil til Libya og en reise fra Vest-Afrika til Kina.
Ellers ble det sluttet en timecharter for det 2010-bygde skipet "Baltic Bear", men ytterligere detaljer er ikke kjent.
For øvrig skriver Splash onsdag at J Lauritzen selger tre 2010-bygde skip på 33.000 dødvekttonn - "Sentosa Bulker", "Emilie Bulker" og "Orchard Bulker". Ingen pris er oppgitt, men VesselsValue indikerer en verdi på 8,2 millioner dollar pr skip, opplyses det.

Gogl-aksjen har jo egentlig ingenting å gjøre hverken på 50 eller 60 tallet. Med inntjeningen Gogl har nå, burde kursen ha ligget på 70-80 tallet.
Med mesteparten av verden i grønt, kan vi kanskje få en brukbar dag :)

Matroser, idag skal vi opp.

Hilsen
Storeulv

Får han rett igjen?
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/bors/2019/09/05/6953392/peter-hermanruds-aksjetips-for-september

Kina Cape / Pmax / Supra alle ned 2,33 / 0,44 / 0,53 %

Jeg tenker det kan være greit å helle litt malurt i begeret. Sjekk her folkens!

The Baltic Dry Index crested 2,500 points yesterday, driven by a surging Atlantic cape scene, hitting decade-highs, however, not every analyst contacted by Splash is convinced the current bull-run can last.

The BDI closed yesterday on 2,501 points, up 96.77% on the year-to-date. Brazilian miner Vale upping iron ore exports in the last couple of months has been the main driver of the recent rise, which have seen some ships fixed for in excess of $50,000 a day this week. Not everyone is convinced, however, that the market fundamentals are in place for a protracted boom.

Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst for shipowner organisation Bimco, conceded that spot rates out of Brazil are rising “sharply”, however spot rates out of Australia are moving “sideways”.

“We are in the better part of the year, but this spike may invert shortly. I can’t see the fundamental support being broad-based,” Sand told Splash.

Brokers contacted by Splash today pointed out that the spot rally had not been backed up by any notable pick up in S&P activity or pricing.

Brokers Intermodal in its most recent weekly report also questioned how sustainable the current cape run was.

Ralph Leszczynski, an analyst at Banchero Costa, was bullish that this spurt has legs – likely through the fourth quarter, based on Vale’s annual production targets, China’s diminished iron ore stockpiles and the raft of capes going in for scrubber retrofits.

“I think the cape market should remain pretty tight in the fourth quarter,” Leszczynski said, a point of view held by a number of other analysts including Cleaves Securities and Value Investor’s Edge.

Link

https://splash247.com/cape-surge-scrutinised/

Mvh

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -1,0% TIL USD 37.644/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeks er ned 1,0 prosent for dagen til 37.644 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.

Freight futures am update
Capesize down ~1%
Panamax down ~2%
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -0,8% TIL 2.499 POENG

14:00
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 0,8 prosent til 2.499 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.

Baltic Dry -0,8%

Capesize -1,0%

Panamax -0,7%

Handysize +0,7%

Supramax -0,2%

Er det mye igjen av motstanden på 58, Grisevirus?

You wouldn't know it from the performance of dry bulk stocks, but bulk shipping rates are on fire and reaching new heights well beyond levels seen in June and July when optimism toward the sector first flared.

On Sept. 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks rates of bulkers in multiple segments, hit 2,518 points, its highest level since November 2010, almost nine years ago. Shares in the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping exchange-traded fund (NYSE:BDRY), which purchases freight futures to mimic the BDI, are up 127% since April.

Gains are largely being driven by bulkers in the larger Capesize category (with capacities of 100,000 deadweight tons, DWT, or more) but also by Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT). The Baltic Capesize Index rose to its highest level since June 2010 – in other words, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

"Dry bulk shipping markets continue to sizzle, with spot rates at near decade highs, while the time-charter market continues to push higher," said Deutsche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities, Capesize rates reached $37,500 per day on Sept. 4, up 21% week-on-week and up 46% month-on-month. Panamax rates were $19,900 per day, up 2% week-on-week and 32% month-on-month.

During the quarterly conference call with analysts held by Safe Bulkers on Sept. 4, executives pointed to much higher levels of Brazilian iron-ore exports to China driving Capesizes and strong grain exports to Asia out of the east coast of South America driving Panamaxes.

While stocks have been waylaid by investor fears over the U.S.-China trade war, these tensions offer several potential silver linings for dry bulk.

In the agricultural sector, the cessation of Chinese buying of U.S. exports has been largely considered a negative for shipping, but this is not necessarily the case.

To the extent U.S. exports are replaced by exports from Brazil and Argentina and do not decrease in overall volume, it is a positive for shipping demand. Panamaxes picking up cargoes in South America use the eastward Cape of Good Hope route to Asia, which is moderately longer than the westward route between the U.S. Gulf and Asia via the Panama Canal. Longer average distances are a positive for freight rates because longer voyages soak up more vessel capacity.

In the iron-ore sector that drives Capesize rates, a weaker economic outlook has historically spurred stimulus plans in China – plans that favor construction and consequently iron-ore imports for steel production.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities managing director of research Frode Mørkedal, "Looking at the ferocious dry bulk rally, with spot rates now at the highest [levels] since before the financial crisis, we ask ourselves if China already pushed the stimulus button.

"While there are several reasons for the recovery since June, such as increased Brazilian iron ore driving ton-miles higher and scrubber retrofits taking ships out of service, it is not just Capesizes performing, but Panamaxes and Supramaxes as well, indicating a possible broad-based demand recovery behind the strong rates. Several indicators like steel production and housing starts are supportive [of the Chinese stimulus theory]. It is reasonable to assume that a [Chinese] stimulus program would be good news for all shipping, in particular dry bulk," noted Mørkedal.

The counterargument is that the recent spike in dry bulk rates is not sustainable. If so, it makes sense that Wall Street investors have shied away from buying the stocks.

Randy Giveans, shipping analyst at Jefferies, said that he expects second-half rates to be "much better" than first-half rates due to higher Brazilian exports and less fleet availability due to scrubber installations (the IMO 2020 rule effective Jan. 1 requires the use of ultra-low-sulfur fuel unless ships have exhaust-gas scrubbers installed). However, Giveans said that he does not "expect rates to remain at these [currently] elevated levels for the rest of the year."

Ben Nolan, shipping analyst at Stifel, went further, opining that "most of that rate increase [in dry bulk rates] is due to scrubber installations reducing supply," which he believes will be "ultimately transitory in nature."

Public companies with spot Capesize and Panamax spot exposure: Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Golden Ocean (NASDAQ: GOGL), Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE: SALT), Star Bulk (NASDAQ: SBLK), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Seanergy (NASDAQ: SHIP)

Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Reports Revenues of $147.2 Million, Fleet’s Average Age Down by 26%
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 06/09/2019


Navios Maritime Holdings Inc., a global seaborne shipping and logistics company, yesterday reported financial results for the second quarter and six month period ended June 30, 2019.

Angeliki Frangou, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “I am pleased with the results of the second quarter of 2019 for which we reported revenue of $147.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $62.6 million.”

Angeliki Frangou continued, “Charter rates in the dry bulk sector have been robust lately. While NM earned a TCE rate of $10,500 per day for the second quarter of 2019, the capesize 5TC rate is currently over $35,000 per day.”

HIGHLIGHTS – RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Sale of Ship Management for $20.0 Million and a Five-Year Services Agreement

In August 2019, Navios Holdings sold its ship management division and certain general partnership interests (the “Transaction”) to N Shipmanagement Acquisition Corp. and related entities (“NSM”), affiliated with Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Angeliki Frangou. The Company received aggregate consideration of $20.0 million (including assumption of liabilities) and new five-year service agreements under which NSM will provide technical and commercial management services at fixed rates (as described below) and administrative services, reimbursed at allocable cost.



As a result of the Transaction:

The Company is a holding company owning dry bulk vessels and various investments in entities owning maritime and infrastructure assets.
NSM owns all entities providing ship management services and employs all associated people.
The Company will pay a fixed rate of $3,700 per day per vessel, which will cover all technical and commercial management services and operating costs, other than dry-docking and special surveys. This rate will be fixed for a two-year period and will increase thereafter by 3% annually.
NSM will provide all administrative services to the Company and will be reimbursed at allocable cost.
NSM will own the general partner interests in Navios Maritime Containers L.P. (“Navios Containers”) and Navios Maritime Partners L.P.
The Company simultaneously entered into a secured loan agreement with NSM whereby the Company agreed to repay NSM $125.0 million (subject to post-closing adjustment) over a five-year period. Principal amount generally reflects the net amount of liabilities to the entities acquired by NSM. Of the amount owed, $47.0 million will be repayable during the first 12 months in equal quarterly installments, with the remaining principal amount repayable in equal quarterly installments over the following 48 months. In certain cases, amortization can be deferred. The loan agreement provides for interest at 5% annually, and 7% annually for deferred principal amounts.

The closing of the Transaction occurred simultaneously with the execution of the definitive transaction agreements.

The Company’s Board of Directors formed a Special Committee of independent and disinterested directors to consider the Transaction. The Special Committee, with the assistance of its independent financial and legal advisors, exclusively negotiated the terms of the transaction agreements and approved the transaction on behalf of the Board of Directors.

Pareto Securities AS acted as financial advisor and Debevoise & Plimpton LLP acted as legal counsel to the Special Committee.

Fleet Update

From the beginning of 2017 through 2019 YTD, Navios Holdings has decreased by 26% the average age of its owned fleet including long-term bareboat chartered-in vessels.

In August 2019, the Company took delivery of the Navios Herakles I, a newbuilt bareboat chartered-in Kamsarmax of 81,600 dwt.

In August 2019, the Company acquired from an unrelated third party, a previously chartered-in vessel, the Navios Victory, a 2014-built, 77,095 dwt vessel, for a total acquisition price of $14.5 million, which was paid in cash.

In July 2019, the Company agreed to sell to an unrelated third party the Navios Primavera, a 2007-built Ultra Handymax vessel of 53,464 dwt, for a sale price of $10.3 million.

Navios Holdings controls a fleet of 57 vessels (including one vessel agreed to be sold) totaling 6.0 million dwt, of which 31 are owned and 26 are chartered-in under long-term charters (collectively, the “Core Fleet”). The fleet consists of 18 Capesize, 28 Panamax, 9 Ultra-Handymax and two Handysize vessels, with an average age of 7.5 years, basis fully delivered fleet.

As of August 28, 2019, Navios Holdings has chartered-out 90.8% of available days for the remaining six months of 2019, out of which 62.7% are chartered-out on fixed rate and 28.1% on index. The average contracted daily charter-in rate for the long-term charter-in vessels for the remaining six months of 2019 is $13,841 per day.

The above figures do not include the fleets of Navios South American Logistics Inc. (“Navios Logistics”) and Navios Containers and vessels servicing contracts of affreightment.

Exhibit II provides certain details of the Core Fleet of Navios Holdings. It does not include the fleets of Navios Logistics and Navios Containers.

Earnings Highlights

EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders and Adjusted Basic Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders per Share are non-U.S. GAAP financial measures and should not be used in isolation or as substitution for Navios Holdings’ results calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

See Exhibit I under the heading, “Disclosure of Non-GAAP Financial Measures,” for a discussion of EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders and Adjusted Basic Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders per Share of Navios Holdings (including Navios Logistics and Navios Containers), and EBITDA of Navios Logistics and Navios Containers (both on a stand-alone basis) and a reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable measures calculated under U.S. GAAP.

As of November 30, 2018, Navios Holdings obtained control over Navios Containers and consequently consolidated Navios Containers from that date onwards. Following the Transaction referred above, Navios Holdings will deconsolidate Navios Containers from August 30, 2019 onwards.

Revenue from dry bulk vessel operations for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 was $52.9 million, as compared to $72.0 million for the same period during 2018. The decrease in dry bulk revenue was mainly attributable to the decrease in the time charter equivalent (“TCE”) per day by 10.9% to $10,500 per day in the second quarter of 2019, as compared to $11,791 per day in the same period of 2018.

Revenue from the logistics business was $60.6 million for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 as compared to $60.1 million for the same period in 2018. The increase was mainly attributable to (i) a $4.5 million increase in revenue from the barge business mainly due to an increase in revenue from liquid cargo transportation, (ii) a $2.9 million increase in revenue from the cabotage business mainly due to an increase in operating days of the cabotage fleet and (iii) a $0.3 million increase in revenue from the port terminal business mainly due to an increase in the iron ore port terminal revenue. The overall increase was partially offset by a $7.2 million decrease in sales of products mainly due to a decrease in the Paraguayan liquid port’s volumes of products sold.

Revenue of Navios Containers for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 was $33.7 million. Navios Containers’ results of operations were not included in the Company’s consolidated results of operations for the three month period ended June 30, 2018.

Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders was $36.4 million for the three month period ended June 30, 2019, as compared to $25.3 million Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders for the same period in 2018. Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders was affected by items described in the table above. Excluding these items, Adjusted Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 was $4.6 million, as compared to $18.7 million Adjusted Net Loss attributable to Navios Holdings’ common stockholders for the same period in 2018. This decrease in Adjusted Net Loss was mainly due to (i) a $19.4 million increase in Adjusted EBITDA, (ii) a $0.6 million decrease in amortization for deferred drydock and special survey costs, and (iii) a $0.5 million decrease in share-based compensation expense. This overall decrease of $20.5 million was partially mitigated by (i) a $4.8 million increase in depreciation and amortization, (ii) a $1.0 million increase in interest expense and finance cost, net, and (iii) a $0.6 million increase in income tax expense.

Net Income of Navios Logistics, on a standalone basis, was $9.7 million for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 as compared to $4.0 million of Net income for the same period in 2018.

Net Loss of Navios Containers, on a standalone basis, was $3.1 million for the three month period ended June 30, 2019. Navios Containers’ results of operations were not included in the Company’s consolidated results of operations for the three month period ended June 30, 2018.

Adjusted EBITDA of Navios Holdings for the three month period ended June 30, 2019 increased by $19.4 million to $62.6 million, as compared to $43.2 million for the same period in 2018. The increase in Adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to (i) a $15.1 million increase in revenue, (ii) a $10.3 million increase in other income, net, (iii) a $8.8 million decrease in time charter, voyage and logistics business expenses; (iv) a $5.7 million increase in gain on bond ex

BULK:8 CAPESIZE-SPOTSLUTNINGER OG 1 PERIODESLUTNING -ARROW
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om åtte capesize-spotslutninger torsdag, der samtlige er for jernmalm.

I tillegg ble det sluttet en indeks-linket periodeslutning for det 2010-bygde skipet "Navios Bonheur" med RNR for en periode på 11-14 måneder.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group onsdag.

Det ble sluttet syv spotslutninger til Kina, der tre går fra Australia, to går fra Brasil, en går fra Ghana og en går fra Hellas. Det ble også sluttet en reise fra Australia til Sør-Korea.

Ellers ble det sluttet en timecharter for "Mineral Antwerpen" med CNR, men ytterligere detaljer er ikke kjent.

For øvrig skriver Splash fredag det italienske rederiet d'Amico Dry har solgt det 2008-bygde supramax-skipet "Medi Valencia" på 56.000 dødvekttonn, men rederiet ønsker ikke å gå ut med hverken kjøper eller pris grunnet konfidensialitet. Prises sies å ligge rundt 12,3 millioner dollar, ifølge bransjenettstedet.

HSFO vs LSFO for Feb2020 på 323 nå :-)

Hva f*** er det som skjer med kursen idag?! Hva er det jeg ikke har fått med meg?

Telenor drar hele børsen ned i dag, og nervøse gogl aksjonærer hiver ut aksjer mens ratene er på sitt høyeste på 10 år :-)

Rød børs og negativ indeks.

Indeks litt tilbake, fra de høyeste på mange år, og rater vi bare kunne drømme om i vår, men fremdeles veldig høye!

Dette må man venne seg til om man er investert i Golden. Den er ekstrem volatil. Kan fort gå opp og ned 5% på én dag, uten nyheter. Mange som har tjent noen kroner de siste ukene, som skyr utbytter og ryker på stop-los så det synger.

Vi har jo klaget lenge på at den ikke følger index, så den skal vel gjøre det nå. Men bare nedover selfølgelig. hahah, du verden

Skulle tro cape ratene faller ned igjennom break even på $13.800. Vi må jo akseptere at de ikke vil ligge på 37+, men så lenge vi ligger nært 20k, så renner det massevis av penger inn i Gogl.
Vi er jo inne i den beste årstiden, så hva er det som trigger selgere nå?
( PS: Snitt cape for Q3 $ 28.512 )

Ser cleaves mener ratetoppen i september ikke er kommet enda, satser på at dette stemmer

Du svarer jo mer eller mindre på ditt eget spørsmål ;o) Ettersom vi nå er inne i den beste årstiden, blir det nettopp dårligere rater når vi går ut av den "beste årstiden" og inn i den dårligste årstiden... Aksjen har jo også gått endel i det siste og noen kan begynne å mene at den ser dyr ut.

Mener jeg leste på Bloomberg tv på morgenkvisten i dag at etterspørselen etter iron ore ville bli wobbly - menende svakere.

Skjønner godt at folk er skuddredde. Ikke enkelt å være aksjonær i Gogl. Her kan store beløp forsvinne bare minutter etter at du handlet.
Men gode muligheter til å tjene penger også. Kursen har steget kr 1,40 på under 1 time :)
Jeg tror vi har en fin tid foran oss. Q3 blir fantastisk, Q4 ligger vel an til å bli meget bra ifølge FFA. Så blir det meget spennende å se hva 2020 vil bringe.

Det er like dumt å se på hver eneste gang, men det funker :-) Noen store kjører stop-los raid, og stikker hånda dypt ned i gotteposten til de små. Til slutt sitter de små nervøse igjen med kun papirposen, tom for gotteri, og må gå i butikken å kjøpe mer.....

Kina Cape / Pmax / Supra alle ned 3,01 / 1,21 / 1,36 %

Takk for dine treffsikre metaforer;) De gjør røde dager litt lettere å bære:)

Cap -1,9% til 36921$

Som Kjepet ville sagt, det gjelder å lempe ut aksjene med slike rater🤣

Takker, det driver snittet for Q3 opp med $ 172 pr dag til $ 28.684.

Freight futures am update
Capesize flat
Panamax flat
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

BULK: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN -1,5% TIL 2.462 POENG

14:01
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er ned 1,5 prosent til 2.462 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.

Baltic Dry -1,5%

Capesize -1,9%

Panamax -0,8%

Handysize +0,2%

Supramax -0,7%

Nå skal det bygges ja :-) Og med 1386654654 mennesker så kan det fort bli noe kilo med jernmalm.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-06/china-cuts-banks-reserve-ratio-to-ramp-up-easing-support

Det kan fort bli gull å sitte i shipping framover :)

Får ta med dagens fra Bulls, Be on alert!
Har vært med på litt av hvert med Gogl gjennom tidene, men nå mener jeg det går riktig vei. Netto inntekter kan mer enn 20 dobles ifra Q2. Men ingen av oss vanlige indianere vet hvor mange skip som nyter godt av de himmelske rater akkurat nå, men bra blir det.
Ratene kan jo hoppe masse, men om de går ned med $ 10.000, så er det fortsatt kanonbra.
God helg alle sammen.

Bulls:
Last Signal:STAY LONG
Last Close:57,00
Change:-0,8000 Percent change-1,38%
Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 22.08.2019, 15 days ago, when the stock price was 53,20. Since then GOGL.OL has risen by +7,14%.Market Outlook The market is uncertain with a negative tilt. The traders seem to be in disagreement. The negative sentiment, however, is increasing as evident from the last bearish pattern. So, it is better to be on alert. more...

Tipper vi får en uke eller to med litt nedgang i ratene nå, før det smeller til for fullt igjen.

Litt artig denne. Rykter i markedet om en slutning til ca. $100.000/d. Det hadde jo vært hyggelig :-)

https://twitter.com/DryBulkETF/status/1170053172448178176

IMO 2020 blir en råtøffe maktkamp. Store Ulver og Mærsk har allerede sikret seg store mengder av det drivstoffet som blir nødvendig, i tillegg til scrubbere. For små lam blir det veldig dyrt. Ulver deler ikke med lam. Derfor blir Q1-20 alfa omega for hvem som skal drifte bulk framover.

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om to capesize-spotslutninger fredag, der en er for jernmalm og en er for kull.
I tillegg ble det sluttet en periodeslutning for det 2010-bygde skipet "Bell" med DHL, men ytterligere detaljer er ikke kjent.
Dette fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.
Det ble sluttet en spotreise fra Ghana til Kina og en reise fra Sør-Afrika til India.
LK finans@tdn.no TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70