Kepler er ute med en oppdatering på REC. De skriver blant annet følgende:

"Wafers in the sky with diamonds

REC Silicon Rating: Hold (Buy) Target price: NOK 1.5 (1.3) Share price: NOK 1.491

◾ REC is now up 50% since our October IOC "The forgotten cycle" and we downgrade our rating to Hold as risk-reward is more balanced. On one hand, the polysilicon business is still far from fully valued and could push the shares to NOK2.40. On the other hand, higher Chinese production rates and strong diamond wafer penetration make 2018 less likely to be a recovery year for REC. We lift our TP to NOK1.50 on the back of a higher Butte valuation and the five-year extension of the polysilicon option, but believe 40% probability of a recovery is fair.

TP up to NOK1.50 on Butte and refinancing
We lift our TP from NOK1.30 to NOK1.50 on the back of a higher Butte valuation and extended lifetime of the Moses Lake option, increasing the probability it will return to full capacity. The new target price reflects a 40% probability of a Moses Lake recovery (fully valued at USD450m, 6x EV/EBITDA), up from 30%. We also raise the valuation of Butte from USD300m to USD350m, our SOP valuation. This reflects 9x 2017 EBITDA.

Still plenty of room for a best case of NOK2.40...
Polysilicon capacity utilisation has increased from less than 60% in 2012 to 92% in 2017. A global polysilicon shortage, which would enable REC to return to full capacity and a NOK2.40 share price, is still possible. President Trump's request for a polysilicon trade war resolution is also a potential trigger for a best-case valuation for REC.

...but 2018 unlikely to be the shortage year
High penetration of diamond wafer cutters, higher Chinese supply and lower global demand growth is hurting the probability of a polysilicon shortage in 2018. Fast-moving greenfields also pose a threat that this upcycle could be shorter than expected.

Andreas Bertheussen
Equity Research Analyst
Kepler Cheuvreux"