Kepler er ute med en oppdatering på NAS I dag. De skriver blant annet følgende:

"Game on

Norwegian Air Shuttle Rating: Buy Target price: NOK 400 (280) Share price: NOK 305.2

In the wake of IAG’s proposed bid for NAS, we argue NAS’s underlying value is one step closer to crystallisation. We have argued for a NAV of NOK500-700 per share and a value of at least NOK600-900 for the operations in a “normalised earnings case”. We believe a strategic acquirer like IAG looks at NAS from an “earnings normalisation” standpoint. Today’s adjusted EV is in the NOK28bn area, but when the fleet is fully delivered, the EV will, according to our estimates, be well above NOK90bn (excluding leases) versus the current market cap of c. NOK13bn. Therefore, a bid could easily be in the NOK400-600 corridor without handing all the synergies to current NAS shareholders, indicating only a 5-20% premium on a fully delivered EV, but a 40-100% premium on the equity. We increase our TP to NOK400 on the increased probability that NAS’s value will crystallise, offsetting the risk that an acquisition will not materialise, as we do not see NAS fully repricing to a “normalised earnings” scenario within the next 12 months on a standalone basis.

An acquisition would make sense
IAG now owns a 5.16% stake in NAS, with the intent of establishing a position from which to initiate discussions regarding a full takeover of NAS. We believe an acquisition would strategically make sense for IAG, as it is underrepresented in the Scandi market and has struggled to scale up its low-cost, long-haul service with the recently launched airline, Level. For NAS, being absorbed by a large group with a flexible balance sheet reduces financing risk. Also, it would provide access to expertise, synergies and reduce the risk of operational hiccups.

What is a fair price?
We have argued that the NAV for NAS is NOK500-700 per share, while the value of the operations would be at least NOK600-900 under “normalised earnings”. We believe that a long-term strategic acquirer would view NAS from an earnings normalisation perspective. Since the potential acquirer would still face operational risk (in the high-growth phase) and increase its financial risk when absorbing NAS’s debt and orders, we argue that a bid could be somewhere in the NOK400-600 per share range. We lift our target price from NOK280 to NOK400, the lower end of that range, on the increased probability of crystallised values. According to our estimates, this implies a 15-40% premium to the current EV but only a 5-20% premium to the fully delivered EV or a c. 40-100% premium to the current equity value. Of course, other vultures may of course also enter the game.

Hans Marius Lee Ludvigsen
Equity Research Analyst
Kepler Cheuvreux"