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Jerusalem Post Middle East DRONE ATTACK ON SAUDI OIL FACILITIES IS MAJOR ESCALATION
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Drone-attack-on-Saudi-oil-facilities-is-major-escalation-601636
The full details of the most recent attack on September 14 were not available on Saturday morning and it was not clear where the drones had come from.
BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN SEPTEMBER 14, 2019 12:48
3 minute read.
Drone attack on Saudi oil facilities is major escalation
A projectile and a drone launched at Saudi Arabia by YemenÕs Houthis are displayed at a Saudi military base, Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia June 21, 2019. (photo credit: REUTERS/STEPHEN KALIN)
The attacks began around four in the morning; video showed massive fires, billowing smoke and locals reported explosions. Iranian media implied that the attacks were carried out by Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been backed by Theran. However the facilities that were struck are in northeastern Saudi Arabia, closer to Bahrain and Qatar. A drone would have to fly 1,000 km. to reach the facilities.
Drone attacks from Yemen have usually targeted areas close to its border. Two exceptions stand out. First was a May 14 attack that also caused Aramco to stop pumping oil. That attack was later blamed, according to a US report in The Wall Street Journal on a paramilitary group operating from Iraq. The second case was the Shaybah attack in mid-August. Allegedly, that attack was carried out by up to ten drones, according to the Houthis.
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The full details of the most recent September 14 attack were not available on Saturday morning and it was not clear where the drones had come from.
Iran has frequently boasted of new drone technology over the last nine months, including long-ranger drones. In early September Tehran unveiled the Kian long-range surveillance and attack drone. Iran’s Press TV is seeking to highlight the attack and blame it on a Saudi-led war in Yemen that has sought to support the Yemen government against the Houthis.
The war has been controversial because it has been blamed for suffering in Yemen. Iran’s Press TV claims the “western-backed military aggression, coupled with a naval blockade, has killed tens of thousands.” Iran says this is a “quagmire” for the Saudis, and it is clear that there is a kind of proxy conflict taking place in Yemen.
Every drone and rocket strike by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia is highlighted in Iranian media, as if it was an accomplishment by Tehran. This is because the technology for drones, ballistic missiles and air defense among the Houthis is linked to Tehran. For instance, the Houthis have shot down at least two US drones over the past six months. There have been alleged splits in the Saudi-UAE coalition that has been fighting against the Houthis in Yemen. In addition separatists in Aden have caused rifts in the alliance against the Houthis.
The last month has seen the Yemen conflict heat up. A US drone was downed in mid-August and separatists briefly controlled parts of Aden. It took several hours for Saudi Arabia to confirm the fires at its oil facilities on Saturday morning. Most of the blazes appeared under control.
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But the attack was also a serious escalation. This is the third attack of this kind, a long-range strike on key oil infrastructure. It shows that ability of the drone operator to carry out precision attacks. It also shows they have improve the ordnance carried by the drones, and that the drones can fly long-distances.
Saudi Arabia, a key ally of the US, has not been able to interdict these long-distance strikes. But it has been able to bring down drones closer to the border with Yemen. Is this because the air defense can’t operate at such long distances? Radar should be able to detect these incursions into Saudi airspace and present a clear picture of where the drones came from.
The question then for Riyadh and Washington is how to interdict these drone strikes and also where to assign blame. Having drones striking facilities in key areas near Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE border is a major challenge.
It also comes amid the US-Iran tensions. Tehran has been hard hit by sanctions and Washington wants to drive Iranian oil exports to near zero. Iran has said that this is economic war and it has appeared to respond since May to US efforts. With discussions now about possible sanctions relief, or France or other European powers stepping in to broker something, attacks on key oil facilities by a Tehran ally can be seen as pressuring western allies. It can also be seen as showing off drone technology.
Tags: Drone attack Saudi arabia Yemen
Jerusalem Post Middle East DRONE ATTACK ON SAUDI OIL FACILITIES IS MAJOR ESCALATION
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Drone-attack-on-Saudi-oil-facilities-is-major-escalation-601636
The full details of the most recent attack on September 14 were not available on Saturday morning and it was not clear where the drones had come from.
BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN SEPTEMBER 14, 2019 12:48
3 minute read.
Drone attack on Saudi oil facilities is major escalation
A projectile and a drone launched at Saudi Arabia by YemenÕs Houthis are displayed at a Saudi military base, Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia June 21, 2019. (photo credit: REUTERS/STEPHEN KALIN)
The attacks began around four in the morning; video showed massive fires, billowing smoke and locals reported explosions. Iranian media implied that the attacks were carried out by Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been backed by Theran. However the facilities that were struck are in northeastern Saudi Arabia, closer to Bahrain and Qatar. A drone would have to fly 1,000 km. to reach the facilities.
Drone attacks from Yemen have usually targeted areas close to its border. Two exceptions stand out. First was a May 14 attack that also caused Aramco to stop pumping oil. That attack was later blamed, according to a US report in The Wall Street Journal on a paramilitary group operating from Iraq. The second case was the Shaybah attack in mid-August. Allegedly, that attack was carried out by up to ten drones, according to the Houthis.
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The full details of the most recent September 14 attack were not available on Saturday morning and it was not clear where the drones had come from.
Iran has frequently boasted of new drone technology over the last nine months, including long-ranger drones. In early September Tehran unveiled the Kian long-range surveillance and attack drone. Iran’s Press TV is seeking to highlight the attack and blame it on a Saudi-led war in Yemen that has sought to support the Yemen government against the Houthis.
The war has been controversial because it has been blamed for suffering in Yemen. Iran’s Press TV claims the “western-backed military aggression, coupled with a naval blockade, has killed tens of thousands.” Iran says this is a “quagmire” for the Saudis, and it is clear that there is a kind of proxy conflict taking place in Yemen.
Every drone and rocket strike by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia is highlighted in Iranian media, as if it was an accomplishment by Tehran. This is because the technology for drones, ballistic missiles and air defense among the Houthis is linked to Tehran. For instance, the Houthis have shot down at least two US drones over the past six months. There have been alleged splits in the Saudi-UAE coalition that has been fighting against the Houthis in Yemen. In addition separatists in Aden have caused rifts in the alliance against the Houthis.
The last month has seen the Yemen conflict heat up. A US drone was downed in mid-August and separatists briefly controlled parts of Aden. It took several hours for Saudi Arabia to confirm the fires at its oil facilities on Saturday morning. Most of the blazes appeared under control.
Latest articles from Jpost
TOP ARTICLES
4/5
READ MORE
Israel must have freedom to act against Iran, Netanyahu says
in Russia
But the attack was also a serious escalation. This is the third attack of this kind, a long-range strike on key oil infrastructure. It shows that ability of the drone operator to carry out precision attacks. It also shows they have improve the ordnance carried by the drones, and that the drones can fly long-distances.
Saudi Arabia, a key ally of the US, has not been able to interdict these long-distance strikes. But it has been able to bring down drones closer to the border with Yemen. Is this because the air defense can’t operate at such long distances? Radar should be able to detect these incursions into Saudi airspace and present a clear picture of where the drones came from.
The question then for Riyadh and Washington is how to interdict these drone strikes and also where to assign blame. Having drones striking facilities in key areas near Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE border is a major challenge.
It also comes amid the US-Iran tensions. Tehran has been hard hit by sanctions and Washington wants to drive Iranian oil exports to near zero. Iran has said that this is economic war and it has appeared to respond since May to US efforts. With discussions now about possible sanctions relief, or France or other European powers stepping in to broker something, attacks on key oil facilities by a Tehran ally can be seen as pressuring western allies. It can also be seen as showing off drone technology.
Tags: Drone attack Saudi arabia Yemen
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Drone attack Saudi
From the BBC -
A spokesman for the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen said it had deployed 10 drones in the attacks.
The military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.
He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".
We have the following -
1) 10 drones
2) Long range - 500 miles which implies either GPS plus image targeting OR a remote long range data link - or piloted by controller(s) and launchers closer by...
3) From the BBC picture - must have penetrated steel casing around liquids and from the breadth of the fire it would have to be multiple hits and also liquids igniting and flowing some...
Jerusalem Post concludes "major escalation" and this is correct in my thinking...still not sure oil price will react but lets see Sunday night...my guess is maybe we get a dollar...
Regarding the range of 500 miles...using GPS and imaging is probably beyond the capability of Iran. But if I am wrong about this then it is definitely a major escalation because a fire and forget system like this would expose the entire kingdom. Getting a live video link to one of these drones via some satellite phone over long distances is going to be cut off as it would have to be huge bandwidth. Which means they are probably relying on clandestine operators which have to be within ten miles of the targets.
Every military strategy has counter measures. Here the control signals have to be able to be detected. They have to be along certain frequencies and have a characteristic that can be detected so if the Saudis set up passive electronic warfare detection systems around all of their infrastructure they can know an attack is coming and where it is coming from and then either use active systems to jam or shoot down the drones or go after the controllers.
The challenge here for Saudis is first the expense - not cheap for such systems am thinking in billions. And then Iran adopts counter counter measures. And second think of the area Saudis need to defend - what about pipelines that go for hundreds of miles how do you stop a drone from hitting anywhere along that length. Almost impossible which implies the Houthis and Iran can keep creating more drones and control teams and coordinate more hits at a much much lower expense than the damage they cause...
Drone attack Saudi
From the BBC -
A spokesman for the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen said it had deployed 10 drones in the attacks.
The military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, told al-Masirah TV, which is owned by the Houthi movement and is based in Beirut, that further attacks could be expected in the future.
He said Saturday's attack was one of the biggest operations the Houthi forces had undertaken inside Saudi Arabia and was carried out in "co-operation with the honourable people inside the kingdom".
We have the following -
1) 10 drones
2) Long range - 500 miles which implies either GPS plus image targeting OR a remote long range data link - or piloted by controller(s) and launchers closer by...
3) From the BBC picture - must have penetrated steel casing around liquids and from the breadth of the fire it would have to be multiple hits and also liquids igniting and flowing some...
Jerusalem Post concludes "major escalation" and this is correct in my thinking...still not sure oil price will react but lets see Sunday night...my guess is maybe we get a dollar...
Regarding the range of 500 miles...using GPS and imaging is probably beyond the capability of Iran. But if I am wrong about this then it is definitely a major escalation because a fire and forget system like this would expose the entire kingdom. Getting a live video link to one of these drones via some satellite phone over long distances is going to be cut off as it would have to be huge bandwidth. Which means they are probably relying on clandestine operators which have to be within ten miles of the targets.
Every military strategy has counter measures. Here the control signals have to be able to be detected. They have to be along certain frequencies and have a characteristic that can be detected so if the Saudis set up passive electronic warfare detection systems around all of their infrastructure they can know an attack is coming and where it is coming from and then either use active systems to jam or shoot down the drones or go after the controllers.
The challenge here for Saudis is first the expense - not cheap for such systems am thinking in billions. And then Iran adopts counter counter measures. And second think of the area Saudis need to defend - what about pipelines that go for hundreds of miles how do you stop a drone from hitting anywhere along that length. Almost impossible which implies the Houthis and Iran can keep creating more drones and control teams and coordinate more hits at a much much lower expense than the damage they cause...