OG SDRL - Firework starting in PG

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SDLR 14.09.2019 kl 22:08 362

Nå vil Trump definitivt slå til med hangarskop og et slikt skips Store Eskorte skip; Ubåter etc.

US, sammen med Israel har selvøleglig oversikt over hvor de slår til, ALT av trusler på Iransk
territorium. At de kan være så skjukke i hodet, rett før valt i Israel, vil Nethanyo få et Kjempe-
dtort flertall, og Han han ville slå til for ikke lenge siden mot Iran.

Nå tror jeg vi kan si at det blir et FAKTUM, Idiotene i Sudan, har nå bitt seg selv i halen; og vil
bli '' seace to exists ''.....

Nuttall puts it better than me

Eric Nuttall

@ericnuttall
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The temporary loss of production in Saudi is secondary. The main point is this: Saudi infrastructure is vulnerable. With relatively basic level weaponry the holder of the only real spare capacity in the world just lost ~50% of its productive capacity. Risk premium endures.

Commentar i Statene
Soooooo.....we finally might get some geo politics in oil.
My thoughts.

They say drones but these were basically cruise missile attacks it seems to me. If Iran gave even 1980s vintage cruise missiles to the Iranian proxies these would be easily able to hit these kinds of sprawling stationary targets.

Cruise missiles are hard to stop since the fly so low. But they CAN be stopped by ground based point defense and radar rings. You better believe this wont happen again as Israeli and US automated point defense systems are brought in (think iron dome, arrow, and Phalanx CWIS types all tested land based systems). So this probably wont happen again at least this way. As an aside Yemen is likely about to be washed in fire and brimstone as the Saudis dump their whole bomb inventory on the place. I guarantee you Trump is already getting ready to approve 4 or 5 billion in munition sales that just got sent in.

Moving on...

I'm not sure the oil price PER SE will be the biggest winner here. There is extra production and plenty of inventory, even taking a million a day offline wont mega spike oil here since the GCC is holding 2mm off line voluntarily (as near as I can figure). Timing wise we are going into the shoulder which should be less than spring but still exist...so that gives Saudi 30 to 60 days to get something fixed before demand returns all in depending on where we are tlaking. Plus cooling season is over so all Saudi strategic reserves will be pushed into the gap to ensure deliveries. Repairs will be done at spare no expense speed in a dictatorship with competent western contractors (private plane loads of Western and Asian workers are likely firing up on tarmac all over right now on "just send us a fucking bill and get here" contracts)

What may happen now is that oil and NG buyers will look to emphasize non Gulf buys of oil and LNG. This attacks shows real chances of problems. US exports will be more highly valued because nothing like this can happen in US/Canada. The big LNG export terminals may get more contracts to diversify from Qatar since if the balloon goes up in the gulf...that wont be affected (This should help all the LNG shippers I think. Hmmm my GMLP is priced for bankruptcy)

While I expect a nice pop in all US/Canny oil producers monday..the better revaluation may take place in the badly undervalued MLPs with serious exposure to US/Canadian exporting infrastructure like MPLX ET EPD PAA etc. Some of these are valued (like ET especially) like they are closing shop in a month. I own all of those and am bigggg in on ET. How the US MLPs in this condition could be so suppressed with the 10 year well under 2% and most of these yield 3 or even 5 x that has baffled me recently as you all know. But now at real geopolitical in the GULF on top of negative bonds?

This could long term revalue those which might be in fact a more last impact than whatever oil pop and eventual drop we get monday.