LPG SHIPPING SECTOR ZERO US EKSPORT

Volf
24.04.2018 kl 09:16 3280

LPG SHIPPING SECTOR Zero US export growth in 2018 Since 27 October 2017, our LPG peer group is up 5% compared 6% for the Oslo Stock Exchange. Although US LPG production grows according to forecast (up 8% YTD YOY), a surprisingly strong US domestic LPG demand (up 15% YTD YOY) and lower US LPG inventories YOY has led us to forecast zero US LPG export growth for 2018, for the first time in seven years. This puts both utilisation and rates under pressure to an extent where the peer group’s liquidity could become a concern. Thus, we have reduced our sector view to neutral.
Lower rates on lower utilisation. We have lowered our rate forecast for 2018e to ~USD12k/day (down from USD21k/day), 2019e to ~USD18k/day (down from USD31k/day), and 2020e to ~USD28k/day (USD36k/day).
2018e tonne-mile set to decline 1%, while fleet growth set to grow by 3%. We forecast LPG tonne-mile demand growth of -1% for 2018e (down from our previous forecast of 8%), while we have raised 2019e to 13% (from 5%) and 2020e to 6% (from 3%). We have increased our 2018e fleet growth forecast to 2.8% (from 2.5%), 4.0% for 2019e (from 3.0%), and reduced our estimated fleet growth for 2020e to 0.4% (from 1.7%) due to higher scrapping assumption.
US production materialised, but surprising demand growth hampered shipping. In our October sector report entitled “It’s coming, but with a slight time lag” we said US LPG production was set to catch up with US oil production growth and accelerate through the year, which it did as Q4 2017 posted 9% YOY growth in US LPG production and YTD is up 8%, in line with forecasts. Still, US propane/propylene stocks are below last year, while net exports YTD are down 22% YOY. Unlike last winter, when US exports led to excessive stock draws, this winter has seen a sudden rise in US consumption of 7% YTD versus the five-year average and 15% YOY after 0% average growth in the last 20 years. We believe cold weather and rising US petrochemical demand are to blame, prompting reductions in our 2018 forecasts, in fact leading to negative growth in US exports YOY, before an improving US balance in 2019–2020e.
Last time liquidity was a concern, our peer group was trading at 0.3x NAV. With our LPG peer group priced at an average 0.67x P/NAV, just slightly below its four-year 0.74x average, we see more downside than upside risk with our new 2018–2019e rate forecast below cash break-even, which is set to challenge all three companies’ liquidity. During autumn of 2016 (the last time liquidity was a concern), our LPG peer group was trading at 0.30x NAV, suggesting 55% downside potential for the group.
We have downgraded BW LPG to HOLD (from BUY) with target price of NOK31 (down from NOK45), Avance Gas to HOLD (from BUY) with target price of NOK22 (down from NOK28) while we have kept our HOLD and USD8.2 target on Dorian LPG.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
addyfred
24.04.2018 kl 09:22 3263

DNB? :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
tesch
24.04.2018 kl 09:44 3229


Yes - Fra DNB

De andre vil følge etter

Analytikerne kan dere få gratis av meg

Axel Styrman , Myrseth etc etc
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
24.04.2018 kl 09:50 3215

Blir det Iran sanksjoner vil ton mile øke kraftig. Blir nok mere skraping også fremover hvis disse ratene holder seg...
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
tesch
24.04.2018 kl 11:15 3126


Tapogvinn

Problemet er at USA trenger mer LPG selv som du ser i DNB rapporten

Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
3333
24.04.2018 kl 11:30 3097

Det har vært en kald vinter så US markedet bruker mer LPG. Litt tidlig å si at det er helt klart at forbruket av LPG vil øke i USA framover.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
24.04.2018 kl 11:31 3094

Det var en tråd med tittel "BWLPG: US-eksport opp 50% på en uke" opprettet av kodenavn...

"Nå løsner det :

LPG: US demand slows, allowing export to increase without decreasing stocks, according to EIA
The weekly production levels came in at 1.82mbpd, a decrease of 2% compared to last week's production of 1.87mbpd and 1.7% above 2017 average of 1.79mbpd. Production at PADD 3 was 0.99mbpd, a similar to last week’s production level. Domestic demand saw a decrease of 30%, coming in at 1.05mbpd compared to last week's 1.5mbpd. Weekly export was 0.89mbpd this week compared to 0.59mbpd last week, an increase of 50%."

kodenavn sier at dette var en mail til DnB kunder?...også kommer dette nå?....
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
24.04.2018 kl 11:31 3089

Vinter sesongen over i us å AC sesongen i Midtøsten starter.

With all of the new U.S. propane production, if propane exports do not pick up soon, we will expect to see rather large inventory builds once domestic demand no longer has support from winter weather. Last week’s propane production was 80,000 bpd higher than the same week last year. Growth in production has averaged 138,000 bpd higher year to date in 2018 than in the same period last year.

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Slettet bruker
24.04.2018 kl 12:07 3019

Betryggende å se at ackermann synes egen aksje er for lavt priset...
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3333
24.04.2018 kl 12:33 2980

Nicolay Dyvik sa på shipping konferansen til DNB i mars at ratene skulle opp. Etter en kald april snur han og nedgraderer LPG sektoren og har hold på sektoren.

Hva skjer med US eksporten, hvis det blir veldig varme måneder framover og kanskje en hetebølge i sommer?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:39 Du må logge inn for å svare