GOGL - Mai #1
FFA: Capes pushing again on back better phys reported in both basins May started trading at 17k +250 from last nights close and printing a AM high of 17600 before meeting a bit of resistance PMX and SMX both seeing renewed buying and well bid at last done.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Kan noen være snill å sende ut en border collie for å få hentet denne flokken snart.. begynner å bli kjedelig
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sauflokken kommer garantert til å våkne denne uken. VI blåser over 70 i løpet av de to neste dagene.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
07.05.2018 kl 08:38
15947
Tipper markedet får opp øynene for tørrlast denne uken. Skal mye til om vi ikke passerer 70.- i løpet av uka.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
07.05.2018 kl 07:36
16064
Dry Bulk Market: Capesize Rates On a Roll
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 07/05/2018
Capesize
A positive end to the week for the big ships with gains particularly in the East, on the key West Australia/China run and the majors and operators in the market. Rates nudged the high-$7.00s for mid-May dates, and with two of the major Australian miners allegedly fixing six ships apiece on one day. A very well described 180,000 tonner, open Xiamen, fixing a West Australian round at $20,000 daily, and a 175,000 tonner, agreed $16,400 daily basis Qinhuangdao, delivery 7 May for similar business. There was also increased activity from South Africa, with a 20-22 May cargo fixed from Saldanha Bay/Qingdao at an improved $13.90. A 26 May, onwards 170,000-tonne 10% cargo, from Tubarao to Qingdao, went at $18.30. There were charterers there still indicating under $18.00 but with owners now looking for mid to high $18.00s.The North Atlantic remained limited in fixtures reported, but tonnage remained tight, and new business was quoted as the week closed out. Transatlantic rates were still holding, with the Bolivar/Rotterdam coal rate around, or in excess of, $10.00. Period business included talk of the 2000-built 171,000 tonner, Star Aurora, booked for about a year, with retroactive delivery 20 April Qinhuangdao at $16,000 daily.
Panamax
Holidays disrupted activity during the week, with 1 May especially slow, as even those working were not prepared to move on anything with the result that reporting was very patchy. The period market saw very few trades, despite the FFA market showing signs of improvement, as the owners held to their numbers, and charterers worried about spot market levels. The North Atlantic saw a reasonable volume of enquiry, but the tonnage list remained too long and rates slipped further during the week, especially for the shorter duration trips. The South remained very active, with additional volume replacing the US cargoes that stopped due to the anti-dumping charges. The increase there has been easily absorbed by the large number of ballasters, although forward dates have remained a little stronger. The positive sentiment in the Pacific continued from the previous week due to the volume of fresh enquiry, with noticeably more mineral demand, and some rates appeared to improve slightly, with the consensus that the bottom had been reached for now.
Supramax
With holidays in many parts of the world this week, the market generally remained very slow. Very little period activity was discussed although a 53,000-dwt open Antwerp, was rumoured fixed for a minimum of 90 days up to 15 October redelivery worldwide, at $15,000. However, both owners and charterers remained cautious, and wanted to see a clear direction before committing.
In the Atlantic, East coast South American rates remained under pressure with a lack of fresh enquiry and a few ballasters remaining. An Ultramax 63,000-dwt was understood to have fixed from Itaqui to Singapore-Japan range, at around $14,000 plus a $400,000 ballast bonus. Whilst a 55,000-dwt 2013 built was rumoured fixed for a similar run in the low-mid $13,000s plus low $300,000 ballast bonus. The US Gulf was still slow but a 63,000-dwt was fixed for a trip to the East Mediterranean at $17,500 with grains, a 57,000-dwt fixed a similar run with pet coke in the mid- $15,000s. From the Mediterranean-Black Sea region despite brokers seeing slightly better activity there were a number of units remaining to be covered.
From Asia routes made positive gains. A 63,000-dwt open Gangavaram 5-6 May fixed a trip via Australia redelivery Far East, at $12,000. A 57,000-dwt fixed basis delivery Philippines for an Australian round at $12,500. A 56,800-dwt was reported booked at $13,000 passing Singapore trip via South Kalimantan to South China. Further north, a 53,000-dwt open CJK mid-May, was fixed for a trip via CIS Pacific redelivery South Korea, at $10,000.
Handysize
A short week with holidays in both Europe and Asia, meant little activity was reported from both basins. Most markets remained under pressure and the Handy index stayed in the negative territory for both the overall index and most of the individual routes. Some brokers suggested East coast South America had reached a bottom. A coastal trip was reportedly done in the mid $11,000s on a larger-sized vessel. A 39,000-dwt open North Brazil was booked to West coast America at $11,250 with about 10 days waiting time. Another 28,000-dwt was fixed at $13,000 to China basis delivery in the River Plate. From the US Gulf, a 37,000-dwt was fixed from South West Pass to Morocco at $10,000. A 30,000-dwt open East coast Mexico was booked for sugar business to the US East coast at $7,500. The Pacific remained flat with fixtures being kept private.
Source: Baltic Briefing
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-capesize-rates-on-a-roll/
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 07/05/2018
Capesize
A positive end to the week for the big ships with gains particularly in the East, on the key West Australia/China run and the majors and operators in the market. Rates nudged the high-$7.00s for mid-May dates, and with two of the major Australian miners allegedly fixing six ships apiece on one day. A very well described 180,000 tonner, open Xiamen, fixing a West Australian round at $20,000 daily, and a 175,000 tonner, agreed $16,400 daily basis Qinhuangdao, delivery 7 May for similar business. There was also increased activity from South Africa, with a 20-22 May cargo fixed from Saldanha Bay/Qingdao at an improved $13.90. A 26 May, onwards 170,000-tonne 10% cargo, from Tubarao to Qingdao, went at $18.30. There were charterers there still indicating under $18.00 but with owners now looking for mid to high $18.00s.The North Atlantic remained limited in fixtures reported, but tonnage remained tight, and new business was quoted as the week closed out. Transatlantic rates were still holding, with the Bolivar/Rotterdam coal rate around, or in excess of, $10.00. Period business included talk of the 2000-built 171,000 tonner, Star Aurora, booked for about a year, with retroactive delivery 20 April Qinhuangdao at $16,000 daily.
Panamax
Holidays disrupted activity during the week, with 1 May especially slow, as even those working were not prepared to move on anything with the result that reporting was very patchy. The period market saw very few trades, despite the FFA market showing signs of improvement, as the owners held to their numbers, and charterers worried about spot market levels. The North Atlantic saw a reasonable volume of enquiry, but the tonnage list remained too long and rates slipped further during the week, especially for the shorter duration trips. The South remained very active, with additional volume replacing the US cargoes that stopped due to the anti-dumping charges. The increase there has been easily absorbed by the large number of ballasters, although forward dates have remained a little stronger. The positive sentiment in the Pacific continued from the previous week due to the volume of fresh enquiry, with noticeably more mineral demand, and some rates appeared to improve slightly, with the consensus that the bottom had been reached for now.
Supramax
With holidays in many parts of the world this week, the market generally remained very slow. Very little period activity was discussed although a 53,000-dwt open Antwerp, was rumoured fixed for a minimum of 90 days up to 15 October redelivery worldwide, at $15,000. However, both owners and charterers remained cautious, and wanted to see a clear direction before committing.
In the Atlantic, East coast South American rates remained under pressure with a lack of fresh enquiry and a few ballasters remaining. An Ultramax 63,000-dwt was understood to have fixed from Itaqui to Singapore-Japan range, at around $14,000 plus a $400,000 ballast bonus. Whilst a 55,000-dwt 2013 built was rumoured fixed for a similar run in the low-mid $13,000s plus low $300,000 ballast bonus. The US Gulf was still slow but a 63,000-dwt was fixed for a trip to the East Mediterranean at $17,500 with grains, a 57,000-dwt fixed a similar run with pet coke in the mid- $15,000s. From the Mediterranean-Black Sea region despite brokers seeing slightly better activity there were a number of units remaining to be covered.
From Asia routes made positive gains. A 63,000-dwt open Gangavaram 5-6 May fixed a trip via Australia redelivery Far East, at $12,000. A 57,000-dwt fixed basis delivery Philippines for an Australian round at $12,500. A 56,800-dwt was reported booked at $13,000 passing Singapore trip via South Kalimantan to South China. Further north, a 53,000-dwt open CJK mid-May, was fixed for a trip via CIS Pacific redelivery South Korea, at $10,000.
Handysize
A short week with holidays in both Europe and Asia, meant little activity was reported from both basins. Most markets remained under pressure and the Handy index stayed in the negative territory for both the overall index and most of the individual routes. Some brokers suggested East coast South America had reached a bottom. A coastal trip was reportedly done in the mid $11,000s on a larger-sized vessel. A 39,000-dwt open North Brazil was booked to West coast America at $11,250 with about 10 days waiting time. Another 28,000-dwt was fixed at $13,000 to China basis delivery in the River Plate. From the US Gulf, a 37,000-dwt was fixed from South West Pass to Morocco at $10,000. A 30,000-dwt open East coast Mexico was booked for sugar business to the US East coast at $7,500. The Pacific remained flat with fixtures being kept private.
Source: Baltic Briefing
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-capesize-rates-on-a-roll/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Kbkristi
05.05.2018 kl 13:03
16768
Meget interessant artikkel P_Invest. Noe har hemmet bulk, og nå som vi skulle ha vært i himmelen, så står vi omtrent på samme sted som for 1 år siden.
Og Volf sier vi skal ned til 47 før vi kan virkelig skyte fart. Skjønner ikke hvordan han skal få folk til å selge aksjene sine til den prisen med ratene som vi oppnår pr dags dato.
Tålmodigheten begynner å ta slutt for mange, men det er kanskje det som skal til, før en eksplosiv utvikling kan skje.
Og Volf sier vi skal ned til 47 før vi kan virkelig skyte fart. Skjønner ikke hvordan han skal få folk til å selge aksjene sine til den prisen med ratene som vi oppnår pr dags dato.
Tålmodigheten begynner å ta slutt for mange, men det er kanskje det som skal til, før en eksplosiv utvikling kan skje.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Empire
05.05.2018 kl 09:11
16898
Hehe. Ja, kjepet. Vi får håpe du får rett. Frem til det så kan vi jo hygge oss med økende utbytter. Hva tror herrene at Q1 rapporten gir oss av kontanter?
Har, som sagt før, årssnitt bdi på 1500. Vi har vært under det i en lengre periode og hvis jeg skal være i nærheten 31.12.2018, så må ratene løfte seg mer fremover. Kanskje det ble for optimistisk? Tiden får vise om det ble helbom for 2018 :)
Har, som sagt før, årssnitt bdi på 1500. Vi har vært under det i en lengre periode og hvis jeg skal være i nærheten 31.12.2018, så må ratene løfte seg mer fremover. Kanskje det ble for optimistisk? Tiden får vise om det ble helbom for 2018 :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
05.05.2018 kl 08:56
16920
Mange som ikke ser skogen for bare trær nå. Som nevnt tidligere er det mange parametre som trekker i samme retning om dagen. Rundt sensommeren/høsten 2020 kommer de euforiske tilstandene. Da ser vi kurser langt over 100.- (heller nærmere 172.- he, he som er mitt hårete kursmål).
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Empire
05.05.2018 kl 08:34
16946
Stortank reduserte farten pga lave rater (som kom av overtilbud) og økende bunkerpriser. Dette hjalp rederne med å sette et gulv for ratene +/- opex. Her var det altså overtilbud som førte til lave rater og rederne justerte farten i håp om å brenne mindre cash (bedre kostnadsprofil for båtene), samt å redusere tilbud i markedet. Det dere snakker om er at lavere fart fører til lavere rater, noe som i utgangspunktet er feil, men det finnes også noen unntak. Lavere fart redusere tilbudet og skal i teorien øke ratene på sikt, hvis etterspørsel er lik i perioden.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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007
05.05.2018 kl 04:41
17066
Kbkristi:
For den ene oppdragsgiveren er det kanskje greit å vente i 5 dager, men i eksemplet ditt så reduseres den totale tilbudssiden av tilgjengelig frakt med Cape med 12,5%. Det må da føre til en massiv ubalanse i markedet og påfølgende prispress?
For den ene oppdragsgiveren er det kanskje greit å vente i 5 dager, men i eksemplet ditt så reduseres den totale tilbudssiden av tilgjengelig frakt med Cape med 12,5%. Det må da føre til en massiv ubalanse i markedet og påfølgende prispress?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Kbkristi
04.05.2018 kl 16:18
17378
Volf skrev Nei Hightide
Skulle det fraktes 180.000 tonn i 40 dager med høy fart og rater til $ 20.000 pr dag, så gir det $ 800.000.
Om oppdragsgiver tåler å vente 45 dager, så gir samme reise med lav fart rate på $ 17.777, og samme totalsum, $ 800.000.
Så lav fart gir jo ikke inntrykk av noe press i markedet.
Om oppdragsgiver tåler å vente 45 dager, så gir samme reise med lav fart rate på $ 17.777, og samme totalsum, $ 800.000.
Så lav fart gir jo ikke inntrykk av noe press i markedet.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
04.05.2018 kl 16:15
17398
Volf skrev Nei Hightide
@Volf:
Er nok ikke helt enig med deg i at ratene vil gå ned dersom farten senkes. Det er også ett av poengene til analytikeren fra SB1M i klippet jeg har lagt ut ovenfor. Gjentar det her:
"Optimal speed will decline due to more expensive fuel
» $250 higher fuel cost reduces optimal speed by 10-15% at given TC rate
- Should give a much tighter market in 2020-21. Estimate: 30% TC rate increase
- Longer term, marginal supplier has scrubbers, speed goes up again and rates go down"
Er nok ikke helt enig med deg i at ratene vil gå ned dersom farten senkes. Det er også ett av poengene til analytikeren fra SB1M i klippet jeg har lagt ut ovenfor. Gjentar det her:
"Optimal speed will decline due to more expensive fuel
» $250 higher fuel cost reduces optimal speed by 10-15% at given TC rate
- Should give a much tighter market in 2020-21. Estimate: 30% TC rate increase
- Longer term, marginal supplier has scrubbers, speed goes up again and rates go down"
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Volf
04.05.2018 kl 15:51
17452
Nei Hightide
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Hightide
04.05.2018 kl 15:32
17491
Vil ikke restriksjoner på fart medføre redusert volum, ergo press på ratene?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
04.05.2018 kl 15:10
17534
Slik jeg tolker det er at vi kan få en perfekt storm for sterkt økene rater i løpet av et par år. Lav ordrebok, utslippsbegrensninger og økt skraping. I tillegg har gjennomsnittsalderen på caper økt det siste året og skipsverdiene økt. Kinesiske verft har også varslet økning i nybyggpriser.
Nå er vi over forrige topp i BDI chartet. Vi er ved motstander også i GOGL-chartet nå (200MA og ved 68.-). Det blir spennende de neste to ukene som vil avgjøre videre retning. Kjenner det på gikta at det kommer til å smelle godt opp før 1. juni:-)
Edit: Det er nesten til det komi-patetiske å se hvordan kursen i GOGL lagger i forhold til f.eks Star Bulk. Star Bulk regelrett pisser på GOGL om dagen. Men det kommer vel etterhvert får vi håpe:-)
Nå er vi over forrige topp i BDI chartet. Vi er ved motstander også i GOGL-chartet nå (200MA og ved 68.-). Det blir spennende de neste to ukene som vil avgjøre videre retning. Kjenner det på gikta at det kommer til å smelle godt opp før 1. juni:-)
Edit: Det er nesten til det komi-patetiske å se hvordan kursen i GOGL lagger i forhold til f.eks Star Bulk. Star Bulk regelrett pisser på GOGL om dagen. Men det kommer vel etterhvert får vi håpe:-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Volf
04.05.2018 kl 15:04
17573
Platinum365 skrev Med redusert fart, går ratene opp.
Tull Platinum 365 med redusert fart går ratene ned se til LPG flåten og stortank flåten.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Platinum365
04.05.2018 kl 14:46
17623
Med redusert fart, går ratene opp.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Kbkristi
04.05.2018 kl 14:21
17675
Skjønner ikke helt hva Hashim mener, Kjepet. Først sier han at i 2020 får man et supply shock enten ved at hele flåten må redusere fart, eller at noen gamle skip skrapes, og resten av flåten må redusere fart.
Deretter antyder han at vi kan oppleve rater sett i forrige 10-år.
Eller leser jeg dette helt feil?
Deretter antyder han at vi kan oppleve rater sett i forrige 10-år.
Eller leser jeg dette helt feil?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
04.05.2018 kl 12:06
17943
Vi fortsetter opp I dag også:
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +1,0% TIL USD 18.308/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 1,0 prosent til 18.308 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +1,0% TIL USD 18.308/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 1,0 prosent til 18.308 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
04.05.2018 kl 09:05
18157
Blir spennende å se når markedet tar tak i aksjen. Synes det ser meget lovende ut fremover nå, men markedet er ikke like overbevist. At kursen forsatt surrer rundt nede på 66.- er merkelig.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
04.05.2018 kl 08:31
18242
Et par klipp fra PAS sin Shipping DAily I dag:
"Momentum is still very good for the capesizes, with all routes seeing rates increase. Again it remains stable for the smaller bulkers though.
Drybulk orders coming in – rising prices
According to Tradewinds, Korean owners Sinokor and Polaris are on the verge of ordering in total four newcastlemaxes (Sinokor) and a capesize (Polaris) at Chinese yard SWS. While the individual prices are not disclosed, it is said that SWS and other Chinese yards now are looking for ~USD 47m for capes, and just above USD 50m for newcastlemaxes. Meanwhile, Koreans are quoting more than USD 50m for capsizes and “mid-USD 50ms” for newcastlemaxes
We have increased our capesize quotes to USD 47m (newbuild) and 48m (resale) as a consequence – though this at present has limited effect to the NAVs of our companies under coverage – the by far main beneficiary of this is mr. Trøim’s venture 2020 Bulkers In its conference call after delivering Q1 numbers yesterday, Hyundai Heavy said it was currently experiencing somewhat of an ordering lull, as shipowners are adapting to about a ~7% increase in newbuild prices"
"Momentum is still very good for the capesizes, with all routes seeing rates increase. Again it remains stable for the smaller bulkers though.
Drybulk orders coming in – rising prices
According to Tradewinds, Korean owners Sinokor and Polaris are on the verge of ordering in total four newcastlemaxes (Sinokor) and a capesize (Polaris) at Chinese yard SWS. While the individual prices are not disclosed, it is said that SWS and other Chinese yards now are looking for ~USD 47m for capes, and just above USD 50m for newcastlemaxes. Meanwhile, Koreans are quoting more than USD 50m for capsizes and “mid-USD 50ms” for newcastlemaxes
We have increased our capesize quotes to USD 47m (newbuild) and 48m (resale) as a consequence – though this at present has limited effect to the NAVs of our companies under coverage – the by far main beneficiary of this is mr. Trøim’s venture 2020 Bulkers In its conference call after delivering Q1 numbers yesterday, Hyundai Heavy said it was currently experiencing somewhat of an ordering lull, as shipowners are adapting to about a ~7% increase in newbuild prices"
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 21:11
18549
FFA: Capes very quiet in afternoon session with levels off a touch as traders square books before long holiday weekend. Panamax sold off a touch post index as in index comes in worse than expected.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Nonnen-42
03.05.2018 kl 14:29
18798
Fra Hegnar Online i dag:
Det John Fredriksen-kontrollerte tørrbulkrederiet Golden Ocean stiger i skrivende stund 1,13 prosent torsdag.
Stål-futures i Shanghai steg ifølge Reuters torsdag til høyeste nivå på nesten to måneder, samtidig som armeringsjernlagrene hos kinesiske tradere er ned 27 prosent siden midten av mars, skriver TDN Direkt.
Videre har kinesiske stålmøller ifølge Metal Bulletin annonsert en prisheving for tidlige mai-skipninger.
- Golden Ocean opp
Carnegie viser til data som tyder på at den kinesiske vår/sommer konstruksjonssesongen nå har begynt, skriver nyhetsbyrået.
Meglerhuset estimerer at Golden Ocean nå handles til en kurs tilsvarende verdijustert egenkapital og mener kursen har rom til å bevege seg oppover.
Vil åpne opp handel
Torsdag er jernmalm-futures ved Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE), med 62 prosents jerninnhold, opp 1,17 prosent til 74,7 dollar per tonn.
Det kan for øvrig være verdt å merke seg at DCE vil åpne opp handel i jernmalm-futures for utenlandske investorer på fredag, skriver TDN Direkt.
Det John Fredriksen-kontrollerte tørrbulkrederiet Golden Ocean stiger i skrivende stund 1,13 prosent torsdag.
Stål-futures i Shanghai steg ifølge Reuters torsdag til høyeste nivå på nesten to måneder, samtidig som armeringsjernlagrene hos kinesiske tradere er ned 27 prosent siden midten av mars, skriver TDN Direkt.
Videre har kinesiske stålmøller ifølge Metal Bulletin annonsert en prisheving for tidlige mai-skipninger.
- Golden Ocean opp
Carnegie viser til data som tyder på at den kinesiske vår/sommer konstruksjonssesongen nå har begynt, skriver nyhetsbyrået.
Meglerhuset estimerer at Golden Ocean nå handles til en kurs tilsvarende verdijustert egenkapital og mener kursen har rom til å bevege seg oppover.
Vil åpne opp handel
Torsdag er jernmalm-futures ved Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE), med 62 prosents jerninnhold, opp 1,17 prosent til 74,7 dollar per tonn.
Det kan for øvrig være verdt å merke seg at DCE vil åpne opp handel i jernmalm-futures for utenlandske investorer på fredag, skriver TDN Direkt.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 14:04
18854
FFA: Capes continue to motor ahead with May now printing several times north of 18k and well bid post index ($18,126 +777). PMX seeing good buying today across the curve through 2019.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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bel68
03.05.2018 kl 12:12
19029
Burde vært over 70 no ........
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
03.05.2018 kl 12:11
19039
Tja, klart brudd på 200MA på høyt volum (mulig OHS med target 76.- straks bekreftet). BCI stiger fortsatt bra etter kjempehoppet siste 14 dager. Gode priser på stål i Kina og greit volum på malmen, på stigende priser. Bare å lempe ut aksjene nå:-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 12:01
18708
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +4,5% TIL USD 18.126/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 4,5 prosent til 18.126 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 4,5 prosent til 18.126 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange torsdag.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
03.05.2018 kl 09:39
18891
Folket er kjempefornøyd med å lempe ut aksjene sine på 66.- ser det ut til. At ratene (BCI) er 60% høyere i år enn på samme tid i fjor, er det tydeligvis ingen som har fått med seg eller bryr seg om. Husk at folkesporten #1 blant norske analytikere er å spå krakk i Kina, med www.dn.no som formidlingskanal:-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Olje pris opp, kull opp, tørrlast opp...GOGL runder 70 før vi tar helg!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 08:28
19063
Fra PAS sin Daily Shipping i dag:
"In drybulk activity was “surging” after people returned form holidays, with Brazil-China fixture said to be high USD 18k/day. The cape-market assessed at USD 17,300/day, up 2.7% vs. previous day. Steady for the other bulker segments."
"In drybulk activity was “surging” after people returned form holidays, with Brazil-China fixture said to be high USD 18k/day. The cape-market assessed at USD 17,300/day, up 2.7% vs. previous day. Steady for the other bulker segments."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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bel68
03.05.2018 kl 08:07
19117
Flott dette bør sette litt fart i kursen .......
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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KJEPET
03.05.2018 kl 08:04
19122
Takk, Sa2ri. Du er god på å grave frem info til oss:-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 08:04
19117
BULK:POSITIVT SENTIMENT I CAPESIZE -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Også denne uken er sentimentet i capesize-segmentet positivt og underliggende kull- og jernmalmruter synes fortsatt robuste
Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.
Aktiviteten i panamax-segmentet har vært svak den seneste uken da det har vært ferie på begge halvkuler.
Starten på uken var svak for supramaxene, men fra midten av uken av økte aktiviteten.
RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 32.500 33.500 18.000/37.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 8,00 9,00 5,30/10,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 7,00 7,00 5,40/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 9.200 9.500 9.200/13.750
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 16.500 17.000 16.500/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.700 4.600 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 10.500 9.500 9.000/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 12.000 12.000 11.500/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 11.250 11.000 8.000/11.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.000 20.000 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 18.500 19.250 17.000/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 16.500 17.400 16.000/17.400
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 12.500 12.500 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.000 12.100 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Også denne uken er sentimentet i capesize-segmentet positivt og underliggende kull- og jernmalmruter synes fortsatt robuste
Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.
Aktiviteten i panamax-segmentet har vært svak den seneste uken da det har vært ferie på begge halvkuler.
Starten på uken var svak for supramaxene, men fra midten av uken av økte aktiviteten.
RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 32.500 33.500 18.000/37.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 8,00 9,00 5,30/10,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 7,00 7,00 5,40/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 9.200 9.500 9.200/13.750
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 16.500 17.000 16.500/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.700 4.600 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 10.500 9.500 9.000/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 12.000 12.000 11.500/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 11.250 11.000 8.000/11.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.000 20.000 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 18.500 19.250 17.000/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 16.500 17.400 16.000/17.400
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 12.500 12.500 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.000 12.100 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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Sa2ri
03.05.2018 kl 07:55
19132
SB1M og ARC er ute med en ferske oppdatering på GOGL i dag. SB1M øker kursmålet til 100,- og anbefaler kjøp, mens ARC har kursmål USD11,00 og kjøp. Et lite klipp fra analysene kommer her:
*****************************************************************************
"GOGL (Buy tp NOK100): Sulphur cap to prolong up-cycle through 2020
Conclusion:
Raising target price to NOK 100/share on the back of positive rate and asset value outlook. New regulations in 2020 forcing vessels to reduce harmful emissions will potentially reduce effect of supply side growth
Estimates:
We make minor revisions to earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019, but revise up our TCE revenue estimate for 2020 by +9% and net profit by +30%. We reiterate our buy recommendation and increase target price to NOK 100/Share. The increase is mainly a consequence of our view that current up-cycle will last well into 2020 and beyond as we see new regulations positively impacting rates and values
Value:
We estimate current NAV (net asset value) at NOK 59/Share. This is up from our previous estimate of NOK 57/share (end Feb.), on the back of increase in 2nd hand values. The observed increase in asset values has so far supported our base case for asset value appreciation. Our future NAV estimate is raised to NOK 92/share due to upward revision of rates and asset values as new regulations takes effect. Adding approx. a 10% premium to NAV takes us to our current price target of NOK 100/share
Dividends:
Our take is that the company is committed to return value to shareholders through dividends, but focus is also to maintain a low cash break-even level with a comfortable financial leverage through the cycle. We estimate a pay out ratio for 2018 of 50% and a USD 0,3/share dividend for 2018.
Q1 report preview:
We are broadly in line with consensus on our Q1 estimates. We expect the company to deliver EBITDA of USD 50m (consensus USD 49m), and to declare a dividend of USD 0,05/share (Consensus USD 0,06/share)
Our analysis
Sulphur Cap to extend Dry-bulk market tightening through 2020-21
- Daily Cape fuel costs will increase by about $7000/day ($250 spread*30 tons)
- We expect two-tier market with TC rates approximately 5-7000$ higher for vessels that can run on HFO
» We guess around 10%-15% of Cape fleet can use HFO early 2020
» Marginal supplier runs on MGO, so extra costs should be absorbed by charterer
» Longer term economics will change
- Optimal speed will decline due to more expensive fuel
» $250 higher fuel cost reduces optimal speed by 10-15% at given TC rate
- Should give a much tighter market in 2020-21. Estimate: 30% TC rate increase
- Longer term, marginal supplier has scrubbers, speed goes up again and rates go down
- Key risks: recession, Excess contracting (but only marginal gain vs. retrofitting), delay of Sulphur Cap regulations (unlikely)
Analysts
Jan-Tore Christiansen
Peter Hermanrud, Chief Strategist"
********************************************************************
GOGL (Arctic Buy - USD 11) Q1/18e: Fully delivered and ready to distribute
Q1/18e: Fully delivered and ready to distribute
For the first time in more than three years, GOGL declared a cash dividend for Q4/17 after resuming regular debt repayments and terminating covenant waivers subsequent to the equity issue in October. The management prefers to have its options open and have flexibility when it comes to distributing cash to shareholders, and we model dividend yields of ~8% and ~13% in '18-'19 on the back of a 75% pay-out ratio. With an improving underlying market, a strong balance sheet and a management both eager and clearly competent in executing on strategically correct transactions, we reiterate our Buy recommendation. Our TP of USD 11/share reflects a premium of ~15% and a 10% increase in values.
- Q1/18e EBITDA of 54m on the back of blended TCE rates of USD 15.0k/day – We expect GOGL to report TC revenues of USD 103.1m with EBITDA of USD 54.0m and a net profit of USD 18.3m (0.13/share). Our blended TC equivalent assumes Cape and Panamax spot rates of USD 16k and 12k per day, respectively. For the first time since Q3/14, GOGL declared a cash dividend of USD 0.10 per share for the fourth quarter. Management did not reveal any specific guidance on dividends going forward, and said they prefer to keep their options open and have flexibility when it comes to distributing cash back to shareholders. We expect GOGL to distribute 75% of earnings going forward, and expect the company to declare a dividend of USD 0.10/share for the first quarter.
- Newbuilding program completed – In January and February, GOGL took delivery of its remaining five Capesize newbuildings. In connection with these deliveries, USD 150m of debt was drawn and USD 144.6m was paid in final installments. Golden's fleet consists of 78x vessels with an average age of about five years, including 68x owned vessels on the water, eight Capesizes under operating leases with profit splits, one Pmax under a capital lease and one Supra under an operating lease.
- Arctic Buy reiterated, TP USD 11 – Our Q1/18 NAV for GOGL is USD 8.0/share (NOK 64.5/share), with a USD 1.4/share (NOK 11.1, or 17.5%) sensitivity to a 10% increase in asset values. We estimate that every USD 1k/day increase in rates generates an additional EPS of USD 0.16 in 2018, reflecting substantial upside potential to dividend distributions. GOGL screens attractive on earnings and cash flow, where we model 2019 FCFF and FCFE (assuming refi of balloons) yields of 17% and 19%, respectively. Moreover, the company trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.9x for '18 and 6.0x for '19, and a multiple of 8x on our '19 EBITDA indicates a value of USD ~11.5/share.
Best regards,
Jo & Lars Bastian"
********************************************************************************
*****************************************************************************
"GOGL (Buy tp NOK100): Sulphur cap to prolong up-cycle through 2020
Conclusion:
Raising target price to NOK 100/share on the back of positive rate and asset value outlook. New regulations in 2020 forcing vessels to reduce harmful emissions will potentially reduce effect of supply side growth
Estimates:
We make minor revisions to earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019, but revise up our TCE revenue estimate for 2020 by +9% and net profit by +30%. We reiterate our buy recommendation and increase target price to NOK 100/Share. The increase is mainly a consequence of our view that current up-cycle will last well into 2020 and beyond as we see new regulations positively impacting rates and values
Value:
We estimate current NAV (net asset value) at NOK 59/Share. This is up from our previous estimate of NOK 57/share (end Feb.), on the back of increase in 2nd hand values. The observed increase in asset values has so far supported our base case for asset value appreciation. Our future NAV estimate is raised to NOK 92/share due to upward revision of rates and asset values as new regulations takes effect. Adding approx. a 10% premium to NAV takes us to our current price target of NOK 100/share
Dividends:
Our take is that the company is committed to return value to shareholders through dividends, but focus is also to maintain a low cash break-even level with a comfortable financial leverage through the cycle. We estimate a pay out ratio for 2018 of 50% and a USD 0,3/share dividend for 2018.
Q1 report preview:
We are broadly in line with consensus on our Q1 estimates. We expect the company to deliver EBITDA of USD 50m (consensus USD 49m), and to declare a dividend of USD 0,05/share (Consensus USD 0,06/share)
Our analysis
Sulphur Cap to extend Dry-bulk market tightening through 2020-21
- Daily Cape fuel costs will increase by about $7000/day ($250 spread*30 tons)
- We expect two-tier market with TC rates approximately 5-7000$ higher for vessels that can run on HFO
» We guess around 10%-15% of Cape fleet can use HFO early 2020
» Marginal supplier runs on MGO, so extra costs should be absorbed by charterer
» Longer term economics will change
- Optimal speed will decline due to more expensive fuel
» $250 higher fuel cost reduces optimal speed by 10-15% at given TC rate
- Should give a much tighter market in 2020-21. Estimate: 30% TC rate increase
- Longer term, marginal supplier has scrubbers, speed goes up again and rates go down
- Key risks: recession, Excess contracting (but only marginal gain vs. retrofitting), delay of Sulphur Cap regulations (unlikely)
Analysts
Jan-Tore Christiansen
Peter Hermanrud, Chief Strategist"
********************************************************************
GOGL (Arctic Buy - USD 11) Q1/18e: Fully delivered and ready to distribute
Q1/18e: Fully delivered and ready to distribute
For the first time in more than three years, GOGL declared a cash dividend for Q4/17 after resuming regular debt repayments and terminating covenant waivers subsequent to the equity issue in October. The management prefers to have its options open and have flexibility when it comes to distributing cash to shareholders, and we model dividend yields of ~8% and ~13% in '18-'19 on the back of a 75% pay-out ratio. With an improving underlying market, a strong balance sheet and a management both eager and clearly competent in executing on strategically correct transactions, we reiterate our Buy recommendation. Our TP of USD 11/share reflects a premium of ~15% and a 10% increase in values.
- Q1/18e EBITDA of 54m on the back of blended TCE rates of USD 15.0k/day – We expect GOGL to report TC revenues of USD 103.1m with EBITDA of USD 54.0m and a net profit of USD 18.3m (0.13/share). Our blended TC equivalent assumes Cape and Panamax spot rates of USD 16k and 12k per day, respectively. For the first time since Q3/14, GOGL declared a cash dividend of USD 0.10 per share for the fourth quarter. Management did not reveal any specific guidance on dividends going forward, and said they prefer to keep their options open and have flexibility when it comes to distributing cash back to shareholders. We expect GOGL to distribute 75% of earnings going forward, and expect the company to declare a dividend of USD 0.10/share for the first quarter.
- Newbuilding program completed – In January and February, GOGL took delivery of its remaining five Capesize newbuildings. In connection with these deliveries, USD 150m of debt was drawn and USD 144.6m was paid in final installments. Golden's fleet consists of 78x vessels with an average age of about five years, including 68x owned vessels on the water, eight Capesizes under operating leases with profit splits, one Pmax under a capital lease and one Supra under an operating lease.
- Arctic Buy reiterated, TP USD 11 – Our Q1/18 NAV for GOGL is USD 8.0/share (NOK 64.5/share), with a USD 1.4/share (NOK 11.1, or 17.5%) sensitivity to a 10% increase in asset values. We estimate that every USD 1k/day increase in rates generates an additional EPS of USD 0.16 in 2018, reflecting substantial upside potential to dividend distributions. GOGL screens attractive on earnings and cash flow, where we model 2019 FCFF and FCFE (assuming refi of balloons) yields of 17% and 19%, respectively. Moreover, the company trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.9x for '18 and 6.0x for '19, and a multiple of 8x on our '19 EBITDA indicates a value of USD ~11.5/share.
Best regards,
Jo & Lars Bastian"
********************************************************************************
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:17
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