Skal vel kanskje litt ned igjen de kommende dagene. OSEBX virker litt toppish spør du meg, og det vil vel muligens dra med seg GOGL til tross for sterke rater. Om ratene dipper ned i tillegg så...
Noen motsetninger?

Ja, tipper vi åpner på 72.- på fredag. Forrige gang (i januar) BCI var på samme nivå sto aksjen i 73.-. Men BCI og kursen følger hverandre ikke alltid. Men for den langsiktige investor spiller ikke denne, eller neste ukes kurs særlig inn på totalen. Viktigere å se at de fundamentale pilene peker rett vei:-)

Enig! Kursen runder 80 før 01.06

Hvor er du Volf? Savner dine saklige betraktninger!

China’s finished steel exports in April increased for the third month in a row to 6.48 million mt, up 15% month on month, and the highest level since September 2017, preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs showed.

Saklig fra meg: oljepris nå 77 og på vei opp, hva skjer med kull, jo opp, hvem skal frakte dette, jo gogl, hva skjer med gogl, jo opp :)

Investtech er kun opptatt av historiske tall og vurderer aldri de fremtidige fundamentale forholdene i selskapet. For meg er Investtech et ikke-selskap jeg ikke hører på. De er for snevre.

Enig, Investtech er ikke engang pilkastere. Lukk øynene for deres betraktninger!

Cape: Pushed again in early trading reached Vindaloo status on the run up to index - despite breaking the psychological $20k barrier indices disappointed many and rates were reduced to Tikka Masala status. Some further cooling but best keep the cucumber raita handy!

http://www.ebnorge.no/fns-co2-svindel-stadig-flere-virker-a-miste-troen-pa-moderne-tids-storste-bloff-japan-satser-for-fullt-pa-kullkraftverk/

Oljeprisen nærmer seg 80 og kull er nå meget konkurransedyktig som energikilde. Vi står ovenfor tørrbulkrally uten like i sommer. GOGL og SBULK kommer til å dobles de neste 6 månedene!

Selv om jeg ønsker alle gode nyheter for bulkmarkedet velkommen er vel ikke akkurat nettstedet: "et bedre Norge" den mest troverdige kilden?

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily i dag:

"Capesize momentum is continuing, and it is generally positive in both basins there. FFAs also heading up, and that is continuing today."

Ønsker alle en fin fridag:-)

Kr 70,50 er kanskje nærmere $ 8,77.

slutter på +72.5 i morgen

Capesizes break past $20,000 per day

Values at the strongest levels of the year as tight capacity sees more trader re-lets in the market.

Spot freight rates for capesize vessels hit new highs amid ramped up iron ore exports out of Brazil.

Dere fikk med dere denne for et par dager siden?

"Korea Line Corporation has continued to expand its fleet with its second Capesize purchase from the resale market. The company has bought Maritime Agency’s 2009-built Sonia for USD26 million".

Det er 13% over snittet på en 10 år gammel Capesize:-)

Edit: og der kom info på Twitter om en 5 år gammel Cape som gikk for $40m. 17% over snittet. Jippiiii:-)

Sakset fra TradeWinds;

Fredriksen group opts for scrubbers on new bulkers

The Fredriksen group is to install scrubbers on bulkers in its massive newbuilding programme.

Marius Hermansen, director at Fredriksen company Seatankers, confirmed the move.

The cost of installing scrubbers is expected to be between $2m and $5m per vessel.

Hermansen said it is likely that the group will also put scrubbers on its tankers, although nothing has yet been decided.

The group has a massive dry bulk newbuilding programme that now totals ships worth $590m, plus options.

Its plan is to transfer the contracts to Fredriksen’s publicly listed Golden Ocean Group, although the vessels could be used for asset play.

Seatankers has declared an option for two more newcastlemaxes at New Times Shipbuilding in China, and Hermansen says this pair will be delivered in the first quarter of 2020.

Seatankers already had a firm order for four newcastlemaxes at New Times scheduled for delivery in 2019, plus options for four more. The ships are reportedly costing $44.5m each.

The owner also has orders for four newcastlemaxes at Bohai Shipbuilding and six kamsarmaxes in China.

Arch-rival 2020 Bulkers, the over-the-counter-listed company, has also opted for scrubbers for its newcastlemax newbuildings.

That company, which was set up by Fredriksen’s former partner Tor Olav Troim, has ordered eight newbuildings — also at New Times.

They were ordered late last year for between $44.2m and $44.7m each — and 2020 Bulkers’ scrubbers cost an additional $2m to install.

Et lite klipp fra Twitter:

"$DSX (#BUY, TP 6.7) takes ~12-month #Newcastlemax TC @$24k/d. Implies 5y old #Capesize ~$40m, or 17% above current levels. We believe next rally in asset prices is imminent, with share prices highly correlated #drybulk #shipping $BULK $GNK $GOGL $SB $SBLK $SBULK $SHIP @Dianaship"

Og her et klipp fra en morgenrapport fra ARC:

"GOGL: CONVICTION BUY!
1) While the week started off with capesize rates around $16k, we just crossed the $20k++ mark vs ARCe Q2 @ 18k.
2) Vale has so far missed their production target and need to ramp up big time after reiterating their prod-target.
3) Fleet-supply remains low and capsize asset-values remain 25% below the 20yr avg.
4) GOGL (USD) is also lagging the cape FFA by 25% YTD.
5) Our sensitivity shows that a 10% increase in these bottom-picking levels in asset values = 11.1 NOK/share in GOGL (~17%)."

https://splash247.com/diana-shipping-newcastlemax-charter-extended-koch/
Newcastlemax bulker San Francisco 10 - 12 mnd kontrakt. Ny rate $ 24.000, opp fra $ 11.750.
Artig å se slike hopp for oss goglere :)

Den 11. april sto GOGL i 74.50.-. I dag står BCI 18% høyere enn den gang og skipsverdiene er ca. 20% høyere. Kursen er derimot 6% lavere.

Her er det MYE å gå på kursmessig (10% økning på skipsverdiene tilsvarer 11.- på kursen blir det hevdet). I såfall er GOGL svært underpriset om dagen (eller den var kraftig overpriset 11. april i fjor).

Om det ikke skjer noe spesielt dramatisk på børsene til uka, tror jeg vi skal opp å teste motstanden på rundt 73.-.

Spot On der KJEPET GOGL skal opp til uka 75 på fredag ..........

Jepp nettopp derfor er jeg meget bull på gogl nå.

Capesize Market Firming Again
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 14/05/2018

Capesize
A positive mood for the coming days, with rates firming again as the week closed out. In Asia, the key C5 route, West Australia/China, peaked at $8.55, but then lost ground as a holiday in Europe unsettled the market and this combined with a then sluggish Brazil market. Within 24 hours, rates dropped to $8,00 but then 24 hours later gained 40 cents, with increased activity from the Australian miners and operators. As rates rose, owners were increasingly trying for timecharter, with Australian rounds in the low $20,000 daily range. For much of the week Brazil activity had been intermittent, with rates for May in the upper $17.00s and only in the low $18.00s for early June. However, a long expected/hoped for, but ultimately sudden, surge of activity from Vale mid-week onwards combined with other cargoes to see June rates hit $19.00. There was also activity from South Africa, with rates also heading higher, reaching the upper $14.00s. The North Atlantic saw more limited trading, but rates here too rose sharply mid-week, but then eased off with the Ascension Day holiday, before recovering with talk of a voyage cargo from Port Cartier to Rizhao fixing at $28.00, allegedly showing a timecharter equivalent of $36,000 to $37,000 daily. Charterers continued to have an appetite for period business, with a one year old Newcastlemax fixed for 10 to 12 months, trading at $24,000 daily, and a 5-year old Newcastlemax, booked at $22,000 daily for 9 to 12 months, trading both with China delivery.

Panamax
Period fixing was again evident this week, with the paper market well supported, despite the BPI being slightly negative on a daily basis. The mood was that the Pacific had bottomed out and was showing signs of improvement with increased demand, but this was off-set by the Atlantic, which was less impressive. The paper market took its lead from the Pacific sentiment, although period rates are slightly lower compared to last month’s levels, with a new build Kamsarmax delivering ex-yard fixed for one option, one year, at $13,500 and $14,500 respectively. Increased mineral demand from Indonesia and Australia added to ongoing NoPac activity, fuelling the improvement, but rate increases were slow and unspectacular.

European holidays disrupted Atlantic trading, and the North still appeared over supplied, with vessels agreeing less than last done. EC South America remained active, but vessels still struggled to maintain previous levels, as many ballasters en route and Kamsrarmaxes now generally fixing around $14,500 plus $450,000 ballast bonus.

Supramax
A story of two halves this week, with routes from the Asian market at better levels than the Atlantic. There was limited short period activity reported, with a 57,000-dwt fixed basis delivery Xiamen prompt for three to five months trading redelivery worldwide at $11,500, and a 53,000-dwt booked delivery Singapore for two to three laden legs at similar levels.

In the Atlantic, the market experienced a slow week, with widespread holidays across Europe. Key areas such as the US Gulf lost ground with very little demand, which put owners under pressure. A 61,000-dwt was linked to a petcoke run from here to the East Mediterranean at around $14,750. EC South America also saw very little fresh enquiry, and with an oversupply of tonnage, rates remained easier. A grain house was rumoured to have fixed a vessel basis delivery Fazendinha for a trip to the US Gulf, at under $10,000. Elsewhere, a 62,000-dwt was fixed for a trip from the East Mediterranean, redelivery US Gulf at $7,700.

As the week progressed trading increased in the East with both South Asia and North Asia seeing a fairly tight tonnage supply, and more enquiry coming into the market. A 50,300-dwt open Nansha, was booked for a trip via Indonesia to China at $12,000. A 63,000-dwt was reported basis delivery Dalian, for a trip via NoPac, redelivery Chittagong, at $13,000. However, activity in the Indian Ocean remained stagnant.

Handysize
With widespread holidays throughout the week, brokers reported an uneventful time lacking any real action or impetus. Overall, routes in the Asian market performed better than the Atlantic, which saw lacklustre activity. Opinions were divided over EC South America, and a 38,000-dwt was rumoured fixed at around $12,500 levels for a trip to Morocco but further details were not confirmed. Elsewhere, a 43,900-dwt was fixed for a trip from Conakry redelivery Black Sea in the mid $8,000s. A 31,800-dwt was reported booked from East Mediterranean to Haiti with bagged cement at $10,000. A touch more activity was seen from the US Gulf, with a 37,000-dwt fixed from here to WC Central America at $12,750. A 38,000-dwt was also fixed from the US Gulf to Yuznhy at approximately $11,000, and another 38,000-dwt was booked from Vila Do Conde with alumina to the Baltic in the mid–high $11,000s. Off the Continent, a 29,000-dwt was fixed basis delivery passing Skaw with scrap, via Denmark, redelivery East Mediterranean at $11,000. From Asia, very little surfaced, despite improved numbers discussed with players keeping information close to their chests. A 33,000-dwt fixed at $10,000 from North Asia to SE Asia, and a 33,000-dwt was fixed basis delivery Japan trip with steels to the Persian Gulf at $10,500. The direction for the coming week remained unclear but players are hoping that activity will pick up next week when everyone has returned from ‘’mini breaks’’.
Source: The Baltic Briefing

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-market-firming-again/

Good! + 75 denne uken.

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

" In drybulk the capesizes continue to outperform at very positive levels, and activity is firm across the board. Certainly boding very well for the second half of the year this. Slower for smaller bulkers though.

og,

Capesize rates back at the highest level since early January
- The capesize market has continue to improve slowly, with rates now back above USD 20,000/day on average – the highest level since early January this year
- The iron ore spot market has continue to heat up, with 35 spot cargoes said to be fixed alst week, up 9 w/w. Iron ore prices are holding firm, driven by Chinese demand
- Port stockpiles are still elevated near 160m tons, (fell 2m tons last week), but so far this is not having an impact on buying appetite from steel mills and traders
- What is more important is the continued increase in Chinese steel price, which have now risen for six consecutive weeks. This has been driven by further draw-downs of steel inventories, which now actually have fallen by more than 5% for six weeks in a row. According to Commodore, this has never happened before this decade
- With ongoing strength in rates at the same time as Chinese inventories of all steelrelated commodities continue to fall – and prices remaining robust – the near term outlook for the cape-market (in particular) is very positive in our view"

Dampier/Qingdao rapportert til $8,40 på lørdag. Dere husker kanskje hva BCI sto i slutten av oktober i fjor når vi så slike rater? Ikke så rart om du ikke husker det, resten av markedet har heller ikke fått med seg dette ser det ut til :-)

Her er et case som har fått mye omtale i det siste

http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/05/Kjoep-disse-aksjene

Hvorfor får ikke GOGL samme kursstigning ved verdiøkning på skip ? Er d pga lavere gearing ?

FFA: Capes sold off on light volume as shorts took advantage of a quiet day on phys and tried to set the early tone - index bit better than expected so buyers now willing last done across the curve. PMX off on nearby May and June but better on Q3 onwards.

Sakset fra TradeWinds

TTA bulker profit hits eight-year high
Thai owner says average daily rates jumped 46% in first quarter.

Thoresen Thai Agencies (TTA) has posted its best bulker profit for eight years in the first three months of 2018.

The company, which also has OSV and mining interests, said overall net profit dipped to THB 8.2m ($0.25m) from THB 87.2m in 2017.

This was attributed to the unavailability of two subsea vessels due to drydocking and weaker demand in the low season.

Revenue inched up to THB 3.11bn from THB 3.1bn.

But the dry cargo fleet delivered the best earnings over the last 32 quarters: THB 252.1m, up 448%.

Bulker revenue increase from THB 1.03bn to THB 1.29bn as freight rates improved.

Average time charter equivalent earnings jumped 46% year-on-year to $10,233 per day.

"Despite generally low season for the first quarter, demand in 1Q/18 was higher than usual, in line with the continued uptrend in freight market reflected by higher Baltic Dry Index," it said.

Hva skyldtes kursfallet i dag?

Det kan kanskje være noe psykologi relatert til Songa’s salg til Star Bulk!

Sissner kjøpte mer songa idag å er fortsatt bull tørrlast.

Ned i dag?

Sluttet ca. 68,66 USA!

Nest siste børsdag før Q1 resultatene, som jeg antar er like gode som resten av sektoren har rapportert for Q1. Ny dag med panikksalg?

Q1 kommer 31/5 Kjepet, Ifølge websida deres.

Ja, men det skjer at de legger frem resultatene tidligere også har jeg erfart.

https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2018/05/15/golden-ocean-group-gogl-scheduled-to-post-earnings-on-tuesday.html