DnB flyttet nylig target til 44 kroner

Nok et skuffende kvartal. Igjen på selgeren og denne gangen terminalen i Rotterdam. Mange fine ord fra den nye ledelsen, men kan ikke se resultatene "enda"...

Utfordrende tider innen shipping generelt en tid, men det snur nå
Positive bevegelser innen noen segmenter, andre henger litt etter

Mye bedre farte andre halvår, derfor greit å bli med på tidlig tidspunkt

Markedet har nå begynt å se det slik

Teknisk fra Investtech:

Investorene har over tid betalt stadig høyere priser for å kjøpe seg opp i Odfjell A og aksjen ligger i en stigende trendkanal på mellomlang sikt. Stigende trender indikerer at bedriften er inne i en positiv utvikling og at kjøpsinteressen blant investorene er økende

ODFJELL
SOTP of NOK67/share
We retain our BUY recommendation and have raised
our target to NOK44 (NOK37) and see significant revaluation
potential on a rebrand of the Rotterdam
strategy and improved tanker market into 2019e, but
for the market to start discounting our SOTP of NOK67,
A & B shares would also have to merge

Fresh fra DNB
ODFJELL
Terminals sale potential catalyst
We reiterate our BUY recommendation while we have
trimmed our target price to NOK43 (NOK44) post Q1
and the weaker than expected Tanker results. We
believe a Terminals sale would narrow the 56% SOTP
discount. We value Rotterdam Terminals at an EV of
USD149m or NOK15/share. Tankers’ EBITDA per ship
day has halved since Q1 2016, but we see potential for
a rebound in 2019 on an improved shipping market.
Estimates lowered on weaker than expected Q1 Tanker results. We have lowered
2018e EBITDA by 10%, 2019e by 7% and 2020e by 6% post the weaker than expected
Q1 results and a deeper trough in Tankers than expected.
Tankers’ EBITDA per ship day down 50%, but shows rebound potential. Odfjell’s
EBITDA per ship day has halved since Q1 2016, which we believe shows the rebound
potential in earnings once the tanker market improves in 2019e and 2020e, with slowing
fleet growth combined with Odfjell’s low cost base.
56% SOTP discount likely to narrow once sale puts value on Terminals. On 8 May
Odfjell announced that Lindsay Goldberg is considering selling its 49% stake in Odfjell
Terminals, while Odfjell is considering a sale of its shareholding in Rotterdam; hence
Odfjell is seeking a new partner for its terminals in Asia and North America. In other
words, a transaction should put a value on both Rotterdam Terminals and the remaining
parts of the Terminals division, which in our view should close the SOTP discount. We
value Rotterdam Terminals at an EV of USD149m (NOK15/share) and from what we
understand there is little debt on the terminal.
We retain our BUY recommendation, but have trimmed our target price to NOK43
(NOK44), based on our multiples-based SOTP of NOK43/share (NOK44), to which we
apply 7.5x Tankers EBITDA and 14x Terminals EBITDA. Our target price also implies a
~36% discount to our NOK68/share SOTP, where we apply a ship- by-ship valuation for
Tankers, yielding a NAV of NOK44, NOK22 for Terminals, and NOK2 for Gas Shipping.
BUY
TP: NOK43.0
ODF versus OSEBX (12m)
Source: Factset
EQUITY RESEARCH 14 May 2018
Research report prepared by DNB Markets, a division of DNB Bank ASA
Industrials
Q1 results review
This report was completed and disseminated at 15:09 CET on 14 May 2018
24
28
32
36
40
44
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
Odfjell OSEBX (Rebased)
SUMMARY
Recommendation (prev.) BUY (BUY)
Share price (NOK) 29.9
Target price (previous) (NOK) 43.0 (44.0)
Upside/downside potential (%) 44
Tickers ODF NO, ODF.OL
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
No. of shares (m) 78.6
No. of shares fully dil. (m) 78.6
Market cap. (NOKm) 2,349
NIBD adj end-2018e (USDm) 1,010
Enterprise value adj (USDm) 1,304
Net debt/EBITDA adj (x) 7.54
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
Abs. 1/3/12m (%) -1/-4/-3
Rel. 1/3/12m (%) -4/-15/-35
High/Low 12m (NOK) 34/26
Source: Company , DNB Markets (estimates)
NEXT EVENT
Q218 09/08/2018
ESTIMATE CHANGES (USD)
Year-end Dec 2018e 2019e 2020e
EPS (old) -0.36 0.18 0.66
EPS (new) -0.30 0.25 0.69
Change (%) nm 43.6 4.6
Sales (old) 879.6 939.7 1,003
Sales (new) 870.8 928.9 992.1
Change (%) -1.0 -1.1 -1.1
Source: DNB Mar

Stor trigger!!

Det går mot salg av Rotterdamterminalen
15 kroner aksjen. Kan gi et saftig extra utbytte :-)

We value Rotterdam Terminals at an EV of
USD149m or NOK15/share.