AVANCE - RATER Weekly report og research fra uke 35 og videre...


UKE 35

The West VLGC market has not really seen much activity so far this week. September liftings ex USG are
seemingly more or less done, however, the vessel overhang going into October is rather limited to a handful
of vessels. Vessels currently discharging in the Far East are being watched carefully as delays due to
ullage issues may further exacerbate, potentially leaving early October vessel supply relatively tight.
LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,500,000 $100,000
Redigert 08.11.2019 kl 17:09 Du må logge inn for å svare

UKE 36

Gas
Chartering
WEST
Much of this week has been fairly slow-moving, with the US out for Labour Day on Monday. In the West,
there has been a relatively consistent number of relets for much of the week. These should result in some
downwards pressure on Houston/Chiba rates. With that being said, position lists have begun to tighten
towards the end of this week as the number of vessel inquiries for early October has risen. Given that there
are severe delays in the East and limited availability for northbound Panama Canal passage, we perceive
the conditions to be right for a possibly quick tightening of freight going forward.
EAST
In the East this week, the delays at disports which were a consequence of typhoons have continued, making
it difficult for players to schedule their ships both in the East and the West. There were a handful of fixtures
for end September which absorbed vessel relets and were most likely the basis for a falling Baltic.
Following these fixtures, the bulk of vessels remain in the hands of the major owners - it will be interesting
to see what effect this has on rates moving forward.
It is also worth noting that further delays in the East could be possible as eastern bunker barges are
cleaned to prepare them for loading low Sulphur fuel oil ahead of IMO 2020.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,400,000 -$100,000
Redigert 16.10.2019 kl 15:23 Du må logge inn for å svare

UKE 37

Gas
Chartering
EAST:
East market had downward pressure, mainly driven by one major shipowner’s dry dock plan, calls
Scrubber retrofit. As some want to keep their vessels in East for Q4 dry dock schedule, those vessels only
can do limited voyage in East. Even West market still has good premium, East shipping position shows
certain length so far. However, we now see many Indian voyage liftings from September, and their new
inquiry starting in October, think vessel length would digest sooner or later by Indian demand and
congestion. Still we wait for Saudi acceptance, and it would be interesting point which date Saudi will give
to term lifters even many nominated 2H October cargo.
WEST:
In the West, there was a continuation of the same prevailing trends as last week; it was a week
characterised by increasing delays in the East, and the resulting uncertainty about when ships would be
able to make laycans in western load ports. Consequently, charterers seem happy to wait for clarity on
timing before fixing in vessels. On the tonnage supply side, there has been an increased interest by traders
in reletting their vessels, perhaps to take advantage of high western rates.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,350,000 -$50,000

UKE 38

Gas
Chartering
EAST:
The East market has been in a standstill ever since past week incidents in Saudi Arabia that created a lot of
uncertainty. Aramco October acceptances were finally announced last night, and to some peoples surprise it
seems that most of the lifters still got nominations within October. However there were a lot of delays as
expected, and this has created a vacuum in the market whereby we still have open ships for 01/10 Oct
dates, but not that many cargos to fix. We therefore expect more ships to be sent back to the West, which is
still also trading at a premium compared to the Eastern market. We also expect next fixing window in the
East to slowly move towards 10/20 Oct owns, and Owners ideas are currently in the low/mid $60s
excluding awrip.
WEST:
This week has been a game of two halves: prior to the weekend, the market seemed content to wait to see
the direction things were going after lengthy delays in the east and as such there was little in the way of
fixtures. After the commotion in the middle east over the weekend, players took a day to try to assess what
the damage was and what the subsequent impact on the market would be. On one hand, bunkers and crude
prices soared, which was one factor in the strengthening of western rates. On the other, a flurry of fixtures
has left vessel availability looking much shorter in the West. It will be interesting to see what this means for
western rates moving forward

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,400,000 $50,000

Redigert 16.10.2019 kl 15:42 Du må logge inn for å svare

UKE 39

Gas
Chartering
WEST
In the West this week, we saw the strengthening in freight we have been anticipating for some time. A
flurry of fixtures led to the market being incredibly tight, while favourable conditions on the product side
also contributed to strong demand for freight. Increased demand for fixing further ahead suggests that
some of this strength could remain into Q4, and with more ships scheduled to dry dock in the coming
months this could be a real possibility. Let’s see!
EAST
The East freight market has remained relatively quiet this week and we are still seeing a lot of ships being
directed back West on the back of higher freight premiums there. Some may argue that this should lead to
further tightness of shipping in the East, however we are still seeing relets being pushed out by traders
which could balance things out. Next fixing window will be around 2H dates and last done deal remains at
USD 56 all inclusive.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,600,000 $150,000

UKE 40

Gas
Chartering
Although fixing activity has slowed down somewhat this week, the handful of vessels which actually were
done ex the USGulf were concluded at rates close to USD 120 per ton on a Houston/Chiba basis. The
Baltic LPG index is fairly rapidly catching up with the West market and currently there are only some
three/four dollars per ton difference between the East and the West. We think there is still room the for the
West market to continue to strengthen (or at least remain strong) in the short term, simply due to vessel
availability in the USGulf being controlled by a few owners, coupled with bad weather and ullage issues (in
some ports) in the Far East delaying vessels' return to Houston.
In the MEG one fixture was reportedly done in the mid/low USD 70s per ton on a Ras Tanura/Chiba basis,
something which may lead to a further jump on the Baltic during the next couple of days.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $1,800,000 $200,000

UKE 41

Gas
Chartering
Things are continuing to stay heated in the VLGC market. This is evidenced by several fixtures ex USG
during first half November and by an increasing Baltic in the East. Despite relatively few deals done in the
MEG for end October over the last week or so, tight vessel availability is supporting the market east of
Suez.
In the West, the current propensity of players looking to secure vessels some thirty to forty days ahead
have stabilised the freight market in the mid/low USD 120’s per ton Houston/Chiba, and mid/high USD
60’s per ton on a Houston/Flushing basis. Although we have started to see freight enquiries for mid/second
half November emerging, vessels getting delayed in the Far East due to either ullage issues or bad
weather is forcing some owners to wait with fixing in order not to over-commit. At the time of writing, the
West is trading at a discount to that of the East, however, it is likely we will see this continuing for a bit and
rather slowly but surely the West will catch up the East equivalent rates.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $2,000,000 $200,000

UKE 42

Gas
Chartering
WEST
This week has been a continuation in recent weeks with regards to western VL rates, with fixtures still
being done in the USD 122-125H/C range. Although super typhoon Hagibis left discharging in Chiba
largely unaffected, there are other reasons to suspect rates could strengthen again in the fixtures to come.
The most compelling (and obvious) is the fact that there are few ships remaining in 2H November, but there
should still be a number of cargoes which remain uncovered. In addition, owners will need to clean their
fuel tanks for the switch to IMO compliant fuels. In a market as tight as this one, it is likely this cost could
fairly easily be passed onto charterers, and this could help sustain higher rates.
EAST
In the East, it has been a very quiet week, with many waiting for the outcome of Saudi acceptances before
deciding on a course of action. However, several relets have emerged for early November, and these could
apply a certain degree of pressure on the Baltic.

LPG Rates

Spot Market (USD/Month) This week Change
VLGC (84 000 cbm) $2,200,000 $200,000

Inntjeningen er nå omlag 20 mill kr pr mnd, og det er nærmere 1/4 mrd kr i året pr båt det.
Avance kan ikke sies å være priset etter inntjening enn så lenge
Neste motstand er 58 kr, Og den bør nås innen 3 uker.
LoadMaster
17.10.2019 kl 08:53 16271

Q3 og Q4 ligger an til 10kr+ i overskudd pr.aksje,og ikke nok med det får vi god hjelp fra en rekordsvak kronekurs mot dollar👍🏼Hiv o hoi,nå renner pengene inn i Avance

Jeg ser ikke hvordan du regner hjem ti kroner aksjen i overskudd for tredje kvartal.

Misforstå meg rett her, tredje kvartal ble et særdeles innbringende kvartal. Men det kan være hensiktsmessig å forventningsstyre litt.
OptiRock
17.10.2019 kl 14:09 15906

Godt jeg solgte på 46,4 og kom meg inn på 44,4.

Ja, du verden! Klokkerent treff på topp og bunn! Slikt blir det respekt av på et anonymt forum! Stå på!
cold
18.10.2019 kl 00:23 15209

Det kan fort bli utbytte på 6-7 kr for Q3. Kursene ble manipulert i dag. Jeg la inn en ganske stor ordre på 43.77 kr (for å kommer over 43.75. Jaggu f... ble det solgt aksjer for 43.78 på tampen. Jeg nekter å tro at det var "helt tilfeldig" at jeg bomma med ett øre.
Redigert 18.10.2019 kl 00:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
cold
18.10.2019 kl 00:44 1

Innlegget er slettet av cold
cold
18.10.2019 kl 00:46 15163

Avanceman skrev :)
Lol. Max profitt i alle forsøk. :) Jeg er helt enig med Londonmannen at JF vil sørge for at den enorme cashflowen ender som utbytte. Det er herlig å vite at inntjening foregår i US dollar, en skikkelig valuta, og ikke i dritten, NOK.
Redigert 18.10.2019 kl 00:47 Du må logge inn for å svare

Det pågående, grønne skifte med utskifting av kull til gass vil få enorm betydning både for frakt av LPG og LNG i mange år framover.
Høye rater i gass-sektoren kan vedvare i uoverskuelig fremtid.

Bortsett fra unntaksvise vekstselskaper på OSE, så vil investeringer i frakt av LPG og LNG være den beste investeringen du kan gjøre fra nå og i flere til mange år framover.
Redigert 20.10.2019 kl 14:11 Du må logge inn for å svare

Jeg tror nok du er vesentlig nærmere her ja.
Og at de vil ha kapasitet til å betale ut et slikt utbytte er det heller ikke tvil om. Blir meget interessant å se.
Skulle de avvente utbytte dette kvartalet, så lever jeg fint med det. Men da bør de presentere en aksjonærvennlig plan for all den overskuddslikviditeten.

4-5 høres riktig ut ja.

Det fundamentale er riktig. Når IMO 2020 kommer i gang vil det skrapes noe 20 skip, eller 7% av vlgc flåten. I tillegg er enterprise terminalen snart i gang, og øker etterspørselen etter skip. Etterspørselen øker, og jeg tror tilbudssiden vil minske. Arbitrasjen mellom US og Asia tilsier litt under 100 000 dollars dagen tilgjengelig per båt, det blir julegaver av slik.
nordnes
20.10.2019 kl 18:42 13986

Det kan hende at når kineserne merker hvor mye bedre luften blir av at gass overtar fra kull, så går skiftet enda raskere. Har forstått det slik at luften i en del kinesiske og indiske byer er begredelig. I Thailand går drosjene på gass.
Avanceman
20.10.2019 kl 21:51 13711

"Arbitrasjen mellom US og Asia tilsier litt under 100 000 dollars dagen tilgjengelig per båt" Hva mener du med det? Vis regnestykket, er du snill.
Vikusen
21.10.2019 kl 10:12 13263

Hvilke triggere skal få denne opp igjen? Ser for meg dårlig volum og fall frem mot Q3 slik det ser ut no volumessig.

Vinter'n kommer...det sykliske vil ta denne oppover.
Icaria
21.10.2019 kl 11:21 12993

Det ser ut som short gutta vinner i dag, med de ratene som er nå i (uke 42) 73.300 usd. pr. dag.renner pengene inn og gir et overskudd på mer en 50.000-, usd pr. dag pr. skip som gir 700.000 usd pr dg. I kvartalet gir dette ca 63 mill usd eller ca. 1 dollar pr aksje (9 kr).
Redigert 21.10.2019 kl 12:07 Du må logge inn for å svare
Icaria
21.10.2019 kl 12:17 12803

Regnet på ratene Avanse hadde fra ca 20/8 og til 30/9-19. de fikk et gjennomsnitt på 48.000 usd pr dg. pr skip
rogero30
21.10.2019 kl 12:39 12717

Du regner nok for optismistisk (1 båt skal montere Scrubbere, 2 stk. noe senere). I tillegg har en del båter gått på fast pris også i denne perioden.....Så 35 000 er nok mest realistisk.....

Utbytte i Q3 hadde vært bra (noe de burde gitt til trofaste aksjonærer.....), lov å håpe,,,,, Vi får se (Q4 avhenger av ratene fremover)
Avanceman
21.10.2019 kl 12:51 12671

Nedgangen de seneste dagene, og som fortsetter i dag, skyldes sannsynligvis at Stolt-Nielsen fortsetter nedsalget i AVANCE. De passerte flaggegrensen (meldepliktige handler) i forrige uke. Mest sannsynlig skal de kvitte seg med alle sine AVANCE-aksjer. Om det stemmer er det fortsatt noen få millioner aksjer som skal ut i markedet, noe som indikerer at aksjekursene vil være under press de nærmeste dager, kanskje et par ukers tid. Om min teori stemmer, betyr det at det er billig å handle AVANCE-aksjer nå. Når de er ferdige med å selge, og forutsatt at ratene fortsatt er gode (noe alt tyder på vil være tilfelle i lang tid fremover), så er dette en tid for å akkumulere AVANCE. Løp og kjøp! :)
Rumleskaft
21.10.2019 kl 13:05 12606

Ikke noe godt tegn at Stolt selger da.. mener vel at de nå kan få veldig godt betalt for aksjene, og at de kan få mer for pengene et annet sted..
J.T.
21.10.2019 kl 13:15 12560

Mulig de trenger penger til implementeringen av IMO 2020.
Icaria
21.10.2019 kl 13:36 12517

I forbindelse med Q2 kvartals(20/8) rapporten oppgir de at 80% av skipene er Fixed Q3 på ca 45.000 usd pr dg. Der tror jeg du "bommer" mest.
Spørsmålet videre er om Stolt Nilsen forsetter nedsalget,
Redigert 21.10.2019 kl 13:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
Vikusen
21.10.2019 kl 13:41 12495

Di skulle investere i ett Lng selskap. Flex står klar for samme oppgangen som Lpg aksjene.
Avanceman
21.10.2019 kl 13:41 12485

Burde nevnt det i mitt forrige innlegg. Stolt Nielsen selger AVANCE for å styrke sin satsing i rederiet Avenir LNG. Stolt Nielsen var store i AVANCE, men etter at Fredriksen kjøpte seg opp har de, slik jeg tolker hendelsene, blitt "skviset" i den grad at de nå har valgt å selge for, som nevnt, i stedet å satse på Avenir. Å trekke inn IMO 2020 i dette er fullstendig skivebom. At Stolt selger AVANCE betyr ikke noe for oss vanlige aksjonærer, slik jeg tyder dette bildet. Caset er på alle måter intakt.
BIF78
21.10.2019 kl 18:11 12107

Casen er fuldstændig intakt. Det er bare at afvente endnu en langvarig opgang.
pasoc
21.10.2019 kl 21:19 11850

Enig om de selger seg ut så er vi tilbake på sporet og langsiktighet vil nok ikke være så dumt her:)

Ser jo ikke ut som om det er noe problem å få solgt. Fantastisk å få kjøpt slike mengder aksjer på disse nivåene tenkes det vel.

Innlegget er slettet av Oppgang Kommer

Trodde jeg var fullastet, men kjøpte allikevel mer i dag.
Kan aksjen bli billigere enn den er nå med en snitt rate på over 70k usd/day så langt i Q4?
I aksjemarkedet er ingenting umulig, men jeg tror vi nærmer oss en bunn nå.
Har tro på kurs mellom 60 og 70 før nyttår.
Redigert 21.10.2019 kl 23:35 Du må logge inn for å svare

Idag får vi snittratene for uke 43.
Vi har lagt bak oss en langvarig, bratt oppgang, og en korreksjon var ikke til å unmgå
Denne korreksjonen kom samtidig med stolt Nielsen sitt børsmeldte nedsalg fra 8,5% til 4,95%, og var med på å forsterke fallet.

Nå satser vi på et nytt skyv mot 60 ved utgangen av 2019.