En kraftig bull run ligger foran oss i oljemarkedet, men det krever tolmodighet. Når det gjelder pensjonssparing er AkerBp fortsatt førstevalget, om litt skal den kraftig opp:

Analysts should realize that zero investments in existing production could threaten a production decline of 6-12 percent per year. Although there are around 70,000 oil fields in the world, approximately 25 fields account for one-quarter of the global production of crude oil, 100 fields account for half of the production and up to 500 fields account for two-thirds of cumulative discoveries. Most of these ‘giant’ fields are relatively old, and many are well past their peak of production, a majority of the rest will begin to decline within the next decade or so and few new giant fields are expected to be found. The remaining reserves at these fields, their future production profile and the potential for reserve growth are therefore of critical importance to future supply. The continuing lack of investments, that started about a decade ago is one of the most important elements of today’s oil markets.

The shale bust may grab plenty of the media headlines, but most oil supply will continue to come from the larger fields. The combination of production destruction in non-OPEC oil and the natural oil field production decline rate is a toxic one. If the market does not recognize this and continues to underinvest, oil prices will shoot up much faster than most analysts expect. 2021 could be a very bullish year for oil. Investment reductions, lay-offs, and total shut-ins are major roadblocks for a speedy and functional supply recovery worldwide. A decade of investment deficits could be doing the rest.

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com