GOGL - Juni #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 01.06.2018 kl 07:23 45876

Dry Bulk Market: June Promises to be a “Hot” Market says shipbroker
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 01/06/2018

There are a number of variables coming into play in the dry bulk market at the moment, enough to mark a shift in the freight rate dynamics. In its latest weekly report, Allied Shipbroking claims that “it’s looking as though June will turn out to be a “hot” month after all, given the most recent trade news that have emerged in the Dry Bulk space. The US and China made a significant step back this weekend in reference to their most recent trade disputes. Washington announced that it plans to step back on its decision to impose US$ 150bn of import tariffs, while China on its side, also promised to “significantly increase” its energy and agricultural imports from the US. All this comes in the midst of the BDI having plunged to just above a “hair” margin above the 1,000-point mark”.

According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Allied’s Head of Research & Valuations, “the recent trade frictions had surely played their part over the past couple of months, with the Atlantic basin having felt the major brunt of this having shown significant lack of support in terms of demand especially on the smaller size segments. There will surely be a time lag before things make a turn around, but it now looks as though the right foundation has been placed in order for a much better market to take shape. This is all to be focused primarily on the grain trade, with Brazil’s strikes having held back any potential shift in trade recently and having caused an overall draught in the region in terms of fresh cargoes to emerge. Given however the reestablishment of US farmers back on center stage, it wouldn’t be a surprise if we were to see a surge in activity to emerge in the North Atlantic, as most traders look to quickly move back in. This in part has been reflected by the recent rally noted in the prices of grains and soybeans these past few days, with most having enjoyed a 1 to 2 % increase since this week’s opening”.

Lazaridis added that “at the same time, it looks as though we may also be seeing a flourishing trade emerge on the side of coal. China is now considering a plan to increase its purchasing of American coal as part of its most recent pledge to make significant efforts to narrow its trade deficit with the US. This goes to further boost the prospects of this trade at a time when China’s coal futures are set on track to make their biggest one-day gain since November 2016. Investors seems to be pilling on their bullish bets given that inventories at China’s power plants and major ports are lower than what we were seeing last year, while operating rates are higher”.

Allied’s analyst also noted that “putting iron ore into the mix and one would hope for a fair rally to take place in the early part of summer. Although we have seen a drop off in iron ore prices, with prices now looking to be closing in on their lowest level this year, there seems to be a fundamental shift taking place which may well be heralding a fair trade rally in terms of volumes shifted during the coming month. For the moment it looks as though the market has shifted towards lower iron ore grades, with the gap between them and medium and higher grades having decreased considerably over the past couple of days. One would have to take under consideration however that we are likely to see again this year a considerable spike in production of steel products, with most steel mills in China likely to seek to increase their stockpiles before the “pollution cap” starts once again in the final quarter of the year. What also needs to be taken under consideration is the fact that the improving trade relations between the US and China could also help hamper most worries in the market, allowing for market optimism amongst traders to return back once more. Let’s hope all these market aspects pull through the way we hope, and we get to see a back on track on its improvement course”, he concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-june-promises-to-be-a-hot-market-says-shipbroker/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 09:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
domboshawa
01.06.2018 kl 08:29 18706

Hyggelige morgen nyheter!

GOGL - Buyback of 3.07% Golden Ocean Group Limited Convertible Bond Issue 2014/2019 - ISIN NO 001 0701055

Golden Ocean Group Limited (NASDAQ and OSE: GOGL) ("Golden Ocean" or the "Company") announces that the Company has through market purchase executed May 31, 2018 bought $1,600,000 notional in the 3.07% Golden Ocean Group Limited Convertible Bond Issue 2014/2019 - ISIN NO 001 0701055 at a price of 98.75 per cent of par value.
After the purchase, Golden Ocean holds $20,800,000 notional representing 10.4 per cent in the 3.07% Golden Ocean Group Limited Convertible Bond Issue 2014/2019 - ISIN NO 001 0701055, convertible into 238,559 shares in the Company at the current conversion price.
Sa2ri
01.06.2018 kl 09:04 18584

PAS tar in GOGL I sin månedsportefølje for juni med følgende begrunnelse:

"GOGL – BUY, TP NOK 82
Capesize rates are at its seasonal low, but now showing some signs of recovery into Q3. Underlying drybulk fundamentals are
still fragile – yet healthy as fleet growth remains low and ordering activity modest. With the newbuilds now all delivered there
is nothing for Golden Ocean to do but to wait for this second half upturn, and their fleet of near 50 capesizes (and low cash
break-even) will generate a sizeable cash flow. The stock has held up well in spite of softer markets recently – and this is partly
supported by an uptick in NAV. We believe GOGL is a stock to own into the summer, and have a BUY rating with TP NOK 82"
Mollen
01.06.2018 kl 09:32 18462

Vi satser på et skikkelig ratehopp i dag også ?
sognoksen
01.06.2018 kl 09:45 18408

Skal vel ned til 66 igjen no sån har de drevet på i et år no ,blir ikke overrasket om det skjer igjen på denne børsen
Sa2ri
01.06.2018 kl 09:58 18360

@Mollen:

Denne kom på Twitter i går kveld og gir klare signaler om at ratene er på vei nordover:

"FFA: Capes held onto AM gains with highest prints at the close, thin on the offers as rumours of better physical circulating (19k fixed Pac round). PMX and SMX similar with buyers willing last done across the curve."

PAS har i sin Shipping Daily følgende kommentar på bulk:

"Momentum is back in the drybulk space though, with both spot- and paper-markets for capes moving sharply up yesterday. FFAs continuing up 10% this morning."

Hvis ikke dette gir oss en positiv BCI senere i dag, ja da er jeg fristet til å si at jeg skal "spise hatten min", men jeg har dessverre ingen hatt. Det som blir spennende er hvor mye den går opp, ikke om den går opp.
Volf
01.06.2018 kl 10:01 18320

sognoksen bryter GOGL motstand ved kr 73-76 gir det et meget sterkt kjøpsignal, klarer den ikke det ja da er det tilbake til kr 66-63.
Ha en innbringende dag.
Slettet bruker
01.06.2018 kl 10:11 18240

@Sa2ri; Jeg har en fet hatt (Panama) som du kan få låne..

Mvh
Redigert 01.06.2018 kl 10:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
01.06.2018 kl 10:17 18212

Tok pengene og løp. Enig med Volfs strategi.
Slettet bruker
01.06.2018 kl 10:33 18137

Hvorfor er aksjen så svak i dag :-(

Noen?

Mvh
Mollen
01.06.2018 kl 11:11 18042

Enig Sari2, dette er bull nå på kort sikt. Kjepet kunne også melde om positive signal for dagens rater. Det blir ny solid rateoppgang i dag. Håper bare kursen følger på. Det er litt ruglete i dag. Trumpen skaper igjen uro i markedene og det slår rett ut på bla. GOGL. Tror børsen i dag kommer til å være veldig avventende til hvordan USA åpner
Sa2ri
01.06.2018 kl 15:42 17815

Det ser ut til at Oxford mener de har vært short lenge nok, dette da de dekket inn litt i overkant av 150' aksjer i går. Synlig short er nå 2 181 265 (1,50%). Vil tro at de fortsetter å dekke seg inn når ratene går opp, og det nærmer seg ex.dato for utbytte. Det er kun 7 handelsdager igjen etter i dag å gjøre det på. Siste shortrapport fra SB1M viste at var 2,78 m aksjer utlånt og at det ville ta 2,5 dager å dekke inn dette volumet: "Days to cover = 2.5, quantity on loan = 2.78m"
Redigert 01.06.2018 kl 15:54 Du må logge inn for å svare
sognoksen
01.06.2018 kl 15:57 17734

Er det denne gangen den skal bryte opp
Sa2ri
01.06.2018 kl 16:24 17673

Fersk fra Twitter:

FFA: Capes pushing again with nearby up over 10% and continued strong buying through Cal 22. PMX and SMX both firmer on above average volume.

Sa2ri
01.06.2018 kl 17:28 17555

The @BalticExchange's weekly #Dry Report is now available and can be found at the link below.
thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bu…
#Capesize #Panamax #Supramax #Handysize

1 June 2018

Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships as the week ended, with rates recovering generally, although the North Atlantic remained slow. Even with increased Brazil activity and rates up, the momentum needed to be maintained to sustain recent gains. The Australian miners were active, and this, combined with interest from operators, meant rates hovered close to the mid $7.00s for West Australia/China cargoes, having gained 65 cents in a 24-hour period. Demand for tonnage to load coal also underpinned rates, with a 2011-built 169,000-tonner fixed from Beilun for an East coast Australian round, at $15,000 daily, while a super-eco 182,000-tonner went at $18,700 daily for an Australian round. The end to the Brazilian truckers strike coincided with a step up in Brazil shipments, with talk today that $17.50 was done for a 21 June onwards cargo from Sudeste to Qingdao, while a 1-10 July cargo fixed from Tubarao to Qingdao at $18.00. The North Atlantic saw little action, although there appeared to be fixing from Guinea to China but rates were not disclosed. Transatlantic trading was limited, but an eco-169,000-tonner, 2010-built, open Gibraltar, agreed $10,500 daily for a transatlantic round. Paper values pushed significantly higher and should stimulate period fixing, brokers said. Koch Shipping reportedly fixed a 177,000-tonner, 2005-built, for 5-12 June, delivery Singapore, at $18,100 daily for 12 to 15 months trading

besg
02.06.2018 kl 11:01 17281

Valgte selv å ta 60% gevinst på 71.70,- ( dog i bull X2 ETN) etter to fine måneder. Selv med stigende rater og skipsverdier virker motstanden på 70-71 å være for sterk i denne omgangen. Og til tross for at vi går inn i en fin periode for bulk historisk sett, velger jeg å redusere eksponeringen min noe i frykt for økt markedsuro. Det er aldri feil å ta gevinst, og jeg er overbevist om at det vil komme fine kjøpsmuligheter for den som har kontanter tilgjengelig det neste halve året. Lykke til!
KJEPET
03.06.2018 kl 19:01 16889

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/05/GoodBulk-fosser-mot-Wall-Street

Og hvilket selskap sitter på verdens mest attraktive Capeflåte, med en gjennomsnittsalder på rundt 5 år?
Sa2ri
04.06.2018 kl 07:38 16538

Dry Bulk Market: Capesize Market on Recovery Mode Once Again
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 04/06/2018

Capesize
A turnaround in fortunes for the big ships as the week ended, with rates recovering generally, although the North Atlantic remained slow. Even with increased Brazil activity and rates up, the momentum needed to be maintained to sustain recent gains. The Australian miners were active, and this, combined with interest from operators, meant rates hovered close to the mid $7.00s for West Australia/China cargoes, having gained 65 cents in a 24-hour period. Demand for tonnage to load coal also underpinned rates, with a 2011-built 169,000-tonner fixed from Beilun for an East coast Australian round, at $15,000 daily, while a super-eco 182,000-tonner went at $18,700 daily for an Australian round. The end to the Brazilian truckers strike coincided with a step up in Brazil shipments, with talk today that $17.50 was done for a 21 June onwards cargo from Sudeste to Qingdao, while a 1-10 July cargo fixed from Tubarao to Qingdao at $18.00. The North Atlantic saw little action, although there appeared to be fixing from Guinea to China but rates were not disclosed. Transatlantic trading was limited, but an eco-169,000-tonner, 2010-built, open Gibraltar, agreed $10,500 daily for a transatlantic round. Paper values pushed significantly higher and should stimulate period fixing, brokers said. Koch Shipping reportedly fixed a 177,000-tonner, 2005-built, for 5-12 June, delivery Singapore, at $18,100 daily for 12 to 15 months trading.

Panamax
After a disjointed start to the week with the holidays in the UK, Greece and Singapore, rates appeared to be under pressure everywhere and the sentiment was initially gloomy. However, as the week progressed, positives began to emerge and ended on an upbeat note. The Atlantic lead the way with rates for end June positions from East coast South America jumping from around $31.50/$31.75 per mt, up to $32.25/$32.50 per mt, with a well described Kamsarmax fixed on time charter at $15,750 plus $575,000 ballast bonus on the same dates. Further north the tonnage list also tightened after a clear out of prompt tonnage, and whilst gains have not been significant, owners were asking for rates at last done. In the Pacific, trading was in thin volume and the Panamax vessels struggled more than their larger counterparts. This developed a two tier market for nearby positions, with only the better described units seeing any improved levels in the spot market. Renewed period interest was evident, helped by an improving FFA market, with Kamsarmaxes fixed at $13,000/$13,250 for one year and Panamaxes fixed for shorter periods of four to six months in the low $12,000s.

Supramax
A short week, with a public holiday in the UK and Greece on Monday, and another on Tuesday in Singapore, led to the market being described as ‘lethargic’, particularly in the Atlantic, whilst the Pacific remained largely flat. The rates from the US Gulf improved towards the end of the week, but some brokers still reported limited front haul activity. On the period front, a 63,000-dwt open Gibraltar was booked for three to five months, trading at $13,000, with redelivery in the Atlantic, the ship was fixed at the end of last week.

From East coast South America, a 55,000-dwt was fixed to Chittagong with sugar, at $13,250 basis Santos delivery, with a ballast bonus of $325,000. A 63,000-dwt open Cristobal, was booked for a grain run via the US Gulf to the East Mediterranean, at $13,750. Recent US Gulf fixtures also included a 61,000-dwt fixed at $14,250, basis Southwest Pass, delivery to Egypt, also with grains.

In the Pacific, a steel trip from North China to Southeast Asia paid $10,000 on a 55,000-dwt basis delivery Rizhao. A 63,000 tonner open Luoyuan agreed $13,750 daily to move nickel ore from the Philippines to China. A 55,000-dwt open Zhangzhou, and a 58,000-dwt open Davao, were both booked to move coal via Indonesia to China at $11,000 and $14,750 respectively. From East coast India, a 53,000-dwt open spot at Krishnapatnam was fixed for a run via Australia to China at $9,100.

Handysize
Similar to the larger-sized, the Handysize Index remained largely unchanged throughout the four publishing days. However, the rates from East coast South America and US Gulf routes, moved lower, with little fresh cargo to lend support. The Pacific market also showed few signs of an upturn with little reported. A 45,000-dwt was re-let for a trip from Nemrut Bay via East Mediterranean to Spain at $10,500 at the beginning of the week. Rumours circulated of a 37,000-dwt fixed from the Continent to the East Mediterranean at $9,000 daily, a low rate most of the brokers said, but with little else disclosed. A 34,000-dwt open Cuba was reportedly fixed at $9,300 basis Santo Tomas for a trip to the Black Sea.
Source: The Baltic Briefing

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-capesize-market-on-recovery-mode-once-again/
Sa2ri
04.06.2018 kl 10:07 16282

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily i dag:

"Cape-momentum continues to gain pace, with another step up on Friday – and suddenly June-paper is trading at ~USD 16,000/day. "
KJEPET
04.06.2018 kl 10:17 16241

Joda, fredagen så fin ut den:-). Nesten ikke volum i dag, kun noen få som tar gevinst, og kursen siger litt ned. Volumbalansen er helt rå om dagen. Det er helt umulig å komme seg inn med litt volum i GOGL uten at kursen stikker kraftig nordover.

Om BCI forsetter opp et par dager til nå så kan vi få en svært hyggelig utvikling i kursen på kort sikt. August nærmer seg med stormskritt, og da skal vi historisk sett få høyere rater. Jeg regner med at har bikket dagsrater på over $40.000 før luciatoget går.
Sa2ri
04.06.2018 kl 12:06 16076

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +5,9% TIL USD 13.963/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 5,9 prosent til 13.963 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Slettet bruker
04.06.2018 kl 13:09 16414

Som jeg har nevnt tidligere.. Sterk motstand v/70 kroner hindrer vidre oppgang for aksjen :-(

Mvh Grisen
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
bel68
04.06.2018 kl 13:13 16411

Desperat salg av små poster for å holde kursen nede ......Hold på aksjene deres Ikke selg
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
skerptiker
04.06.2018 kl 13:24 16391

Hvem driver dette spillet? Hva er motivet, og hvorfor vil ikke aksjonærene ha kursen opp? Mye positivt i markedet, og GOGL la frem gode tall, men likevel er det noen som hindrer en naturlig og riktig utvikling av kursen. Har robotene for all fremtid ødelagt markedet?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
04.06.2018 kl 15:45 16255

Viktig at den blir presset ned under 70 kroner v/close ob.

Skjønner?

Mvh
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
04.06.2018 kl 21:56 16054

Enhver mulig oppgang blir beskutt av shortere. Sånn har det pågått i mer enn ett år og lenger. Alltid når det har kommet gode nyheter, så går kursen opp, og så må vi se at kursen faller. Dette er et dataspill for proffene. Det har ingenting med bulk å gjøre. Kun teknisk analyse for å loppe oss troende!
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
04.06.2018 kl 22:08 16036

Ville vært fint med en analyse fra Volf også. Opp til 73-76, eller tilbake til 66?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
04.06.2018 kl 22:38 15971

Ja, de stadige shortangrepene på GOGL det siste 1,5 år har vært frustrerende. Hadde bare ratene fortsatt opp en liten stund til nå så hadde de ikke greid å holde den nede. Er imidlertid redd at det blir litt humpete ratebilde en stund til og at vi ikke får bruddet opp før til sensommeren. Dere må huske på at det shorterne vil er å utmatte oss som sitter long. Psyke oss ut gang på gang ved å dunke papiret ned. De vil vi skal miste troen på papiret og gi opp slik at de får våre aksjer billig. Dette fungerer jo godt, men jeg tror det fundamentale vil seire til slutt. Bulk er på vei videre oppover og til slutt må de gi opp å holde den nede på disse nivåer. Da går kursen fort opp til neste nivå. Ny short blir satt og leken er igang igjen.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Volf
04.06.2018 kl 22:41 15962

Gode utsikter i tørrlast, så kanskje GOGL bryter gjennom motstand denne gangen, grunnet følgende
1) spottratene for capesize skip har i gjennomsnitt vært ca US$ 11.000 pr dag hittil i år, opp 6% sammenlignet med samme periode i fjord.
2) Selv om stålproduksjonen i Kina sannsynligvis er på eller nær toppen,medfører myndighetenes kamp mot forurensning paradoksalt nok til økt etterspørsel etter mere importert jernmalm og kull.
Jeg sitter fremdeles long og er usikker på om jeg går short ved passering kr 73-76.
skal komme tilbake til det senere.
Ha en fin kveld og innbringende morgendag.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Nonnen-42
04.06.2018 kl 22:56 15917

Opp 3,07 % i US i kveld
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
04.06.2018 kl 23:41 15838

Sitter nå i cash, All time high, men lurer på hva som er lurt? Volf er en shorter. Å shorte har jeg aldrig turt. Ser ut som hver gang jeg selger på high, så blir det ett nytt gulv!. Ikke enkelt det gamet her.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
05.06.2018 kl 05:42 15814

Ikke lett å trade kbkristi. Ser at norske bulls opererer med signaler med bare dager mellomrom. Man skal både være god og ha flaks for å trade. Det er en kunst. Den behersker ikke jeg, så min strategi er å sittte rolig i båten. Jeg sitter gjerne frem til 2020, da redusert fart vil ha samme effekt som å fjerne 300-400 caper fra markedet over natten:-)

https://splash247.com/owners-unite-slow-streaming-call-profit-sulphur-cap/
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Aristarchos
05.06.2018 kl 08:56 15626

Beklager - dobbeltpost. Jeg er visst ikke helt venner med dette nye forumet. Det er en sletteknapp her, men den virker da ikke?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
05.06.2018 kl 09:12 15572

Hvordan er signalene for dagens rater Kjepet ?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
05.06.2018 kl 09:28 15535

Lite signaler fra den elektroniske verden om ratene I går. Her er et klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Capesizes continue to gain, with decent activity across the board. FFAs more flattish, though the June-paper moved up around USD 375. Panamaxes also moving up now it seems."
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
05.06.2018 kl 09:42 15481

Ingen signaler i dag. Da er volumet tilbake på stigende kurser, og vi fikk et løft etter bruddet på 70,60.-. Nå venter jeg på bruddet opp igjennom 73.- og golden cross (50MA krysser 200MA fra undersiden):-)
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
05.06.2018 kl 09:54 15432

Da kan det se ut til at vi får en test av den tekniske motstanden på 72,60 (middels lang sikt). Det er også sterk motstand ved 73,- (lang sikt). Dersom vi får etablert brudd av disse nivåene, ja da er det lite motstand videre oppover.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
05.06.2018 kl 09:58 15410

Sykt volum nå. Allerede passer hele gårsdagens omsetning, før timen har passert!!
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
Wilde
05.06.2018 kl 10:32 15316

GOGL er en hyggelig aksje som på dagens rater leverer utbytter som er en finfin bonus for de som er long. Med de ratene selskapet oppnår nå blir banken slått kraftig. Dersom vi får høyere rater de neste årene blir GOGL en sjuk kontantmaskin, samtidig som vi får en rå kurs. All respekt til de som tør å trade denne fremover, men shorting ser meget risikabelt ut nå.

Stay long, stay strong.
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 19:00 Du må logge inn for å svare