GOGL - Juni #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 01.06.2018 kl 07:23 46392

Dry Bulk Market: June Promises to be a “Hot” Market says shipbroker
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 01/06/2018

There are a number of variables coming into play in the dry bulk market at the moment, enough to mark a shift in the freight rate dynamics. In its latest weekly report, Allied Shipbroking claims that “it’s looking as though June will turn out to be a “hot” month after all, given the most recent trade news that have emerged in the Dry Bulk space. The US and China made a significant step back this weekend in reference to their most recent trade disputes. Washington announced that it plans to step back on its decision to impose US$ 150bn of import tariffs, while China on its side, also promised to “significantly increase” its energy and agricultural imports from the US. All this comes in the midst of the BDI having plunged to just above a “hair” margin above the 1,000-point mark”.

According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Allied’s Head of Research & Valuations, “the recent trade frictions had surely played their part over the past couple of months, with the Atlantic basin having felt the major brunt of this having shown significant lack of support in terms of demand especially on the smaller size segments. There will surely be a time lag before things make a turn around, but it now looks as though the right foundation has been placed in order for a much better market to take shape. This is all to be focused primarily on the grain trade, with Brazil’s strikes having held back any potential shift in trade recently and having caused an overall draught in the region in terms of fresh cargoes to emerge. Given however the reestablishment of US farmers back on center stage, it wouldn’t be a surprise if we were to see a surge in activity to emerge in the North Atlantic, as most traders look to quickly move back in. This in part has been reflected by the recent rally noted in the prices of grains and soybeans these past few days, with most having enjoyed a 1 to 2 % increase since this week’s opening”.

Lazaridis added that “at the same time, it looks as though we may also be seeing a flourishing trade emerge on the side of coal. China is now considering a plan to increase its purchasing of American coal as part of its most recent pledge to make significant efforts to narrow its trade deficit with the US. This goes to further boost the prospects of this trade at a time when China’s coal futures are set on track to make their biggest one-day gain since November 2016. Investors seems to be pilling on their bullish bets given that inventories at China’s power plants and major ports are lower than what we were seeing last year, while operating rates are higher”.

Allied’s analyst also noted that “putting iron ore into the mix and one would hope for a fair rally to take place in the early part of summer. Although we have seen a drop off in iron ore prices, with prices now looking to be closing in on their lowest level this year, there seems to be a fundamental shift taking place which may well be heralding a fair trade rally in terms of volumes shifted during the coming month. For the moment it looks as though the market has shifted towards lower iron ore grades, with the gap between them and medium and higher grades having decreased considerably over the past couple of days. One would have to take under consideration however that we are likely to see again this year a considerable spike in production of steel products, with most steel mills in China likely to seek to increase their stockpiles before the “pollution cap” starts once again in the final quarter of the year. What also needs to be taken under consideration is the fact that the improving trade relations between the US and China could also help hamper most worries in the market, allowing for market optimism amongst traders to return back once more. Let’s hope all these market aspects pull through the way we hope, and we get to see a back on track on its improvement course”, he concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-june-promises-to-be-a-hot-market-says-shipbroker/
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Mollen
19.06.2018 kl 09:40 8577

Ja, ikke tvil om at denne skal opp bare ting får roet seg litt. Ligger klar til å komme inngjen i GOGL.
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KJEPET
19.06.2018 kl 09:36 8593

Da har Trump'en vært på farten igjen ser jeg:-) Ser at han sender shippingsektoren rett i bakken nok en gang. Skulle ønske jeg hadde samme makt og kunne sendt verdens aksjekurser opp og ned bare ved noen få tastetrykk.

Ser det er en ny kjempesjanse til å komme seg inn i GOGL til en overkommelig pris nå. For den langsiktige er jo dette en gyllen anledning til være med på bulkracet som er i anmarsj. For de som er interessert kan dere lese denne rapporten for forrige uke. Den er til å bli våt i øyekroken av. Nå har det startet for alvor:-). NAV i GOGL stiger bratt, og 10% økning i NAV skal visst utgjøre 12.- NOK på kursen i følge DNM's beregninger. Det er ikke priset inn i kursen pr. i dag.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ALLIED-Weekly-Market-Report_15_06_2018b.pdf
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Gull i pungen
18.06.2018 kl 14:53 8861

Baltic Dry-indeksen er ifølge The Baltic Exchange ned 0,2 prosent til 1.442 poeng, skriver TDN Direkt.

Capesize og Supramax daler 0,1 prosent til henholdsvis 18.233 og 11.311, mens Handysize stiger 0,2 prosent til 8.659.
Panamax faller 0,8 prosent til 11.911.
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Sa2ri
18.06.2018 kl 08:02 9126

SB1M er ute med en oppdatering på shipping, hvor de konkluderer med følgende:

"Conclusion
Stronger asset backing& higher expectations for 2nd half 2018
Recent data points are supportive of our positive market view

Our analysis
Strong Sentiment – increase in TC rates & 2nd Hand values:

"Firmer asset values:
»Sale of capsize: A 3 year capesize(High quality Japanese built) is reportedly sold for a very firm price USD 45m (Tradewinds). In addition to the firm price, the ship had a 9 month TC contract attached, with a negative value of USD 1m+, which in reality makes the sale-price even higher
- If confirmed, the value is supportive of resent upward adjustment in asset values and indicates that the latest revisions of 2ndhand prices reported by Clarkson, may be on the conservative side. We calculated a 4% rise in values based on this transaction versus the 2% hike in resale value*

»En-bloc transaction of four bulkers: Genko(GNK) has entered into an agreement to acquire four dry bulk vessels for approximately USD 141m. The deal includes two 2015-built capsizes and a 2014-built ultramax from "First-tier" Chinese shipyards and 2016-built ultramax from a first-tier Japanese shipyard. (Tradewinds)
- With no further details of the sale, we estimate that the deal is done at levels indicating a 4% premium over current quoted values*. En-bloc sales may achieve some premium pricing, but it appears that the transaction is done at firm levels.

»NAV impact:
- Our Current NAV estimate values GOGL at NOK 68/Share(up from NOK 63 in early June). P/NAV 1.11x

Stronger TC rates:
»Capesize 181k dwt/blt 2015 done for 7-9 months at USD 23,250/day to majors** (vs current quoted 1 year TC rate @ USD 19 900/day)
»The rate is approx. at the level necessary in order to meet our USD 18 000/day estimate for 2018 (ytd rate is USD 11 300/day).
»The fixure indicates a strong sentiment in the physical market for 2nd half 2018

Analysts
Jan-Tore Christiansen"
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Sa2ri
18.06.2018 kl 06:56 9206

Dry Bulk Market: Capesize Index Shows Further Improvement
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 18/06/2018

Capesize
The Atlantic market improved this week, with increased activity from Brazil for July shipments plus a few June cargoes fuelling rate rises, with close to $20.00 rumoured paid. Vale took a few July ships from Tubarao to Qingdao early in the week at rates in the low $18.00s, with others quickly following and pushing rates higher. Further north, there was some increased activity, with tonnage still tight, but this market can swing either way very quickly. Timecharter rates for trips to the East firmed sharply, with a well-described 2014-built 181,000-tonner fixing from Ijmuiden for a trip via EC Canada or Trinidad at $35,000 daily. Transatlantic business was slower to emerge, but the rate from Puerto Bolivar/Rotterdam was still holding more than $10.00 and a cargo fixed from Port Cartier to Fos at $9.25, although the latter business was said to show around $18,000 daily.

With a holiday in Singapore as the week ended little was expected, but after a mostly flat week here rates on the key West Australia/China run closed out at $8.00, as FMG picked up three ships for end June loading from Port Hedland to Qingdao. Timecharter rates also firmed, with an 11-year 181,000-tonner fixing basis South Korea delivery for a round voyage at $18,000 daily. Period trading was evident this week, with charterers eyeing still solid forward curves. A 2004-built 180,000-tonner open Jintang fixed for seven to nine months trading at $21,000 daily, while a 2016 Newcastlemax Imabari built reported for two years at $25,000 daily with Japan delivery.

Panamax
A somewhat strange week, which started very slowly following Posidonia, and ended with a holiday in Singapore. Activity from EC South America continued to dominate the market and rates improved particularly for nearby positions but not dramatically, with Kamsarmaxes now fixing just above $16,500 plus a $650,000 ballast bonus compared to $16,000 plus $600,000 ballast bonus at the end of last week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, front haul rates rose throughout the week with sufficient enquiry sustaining the gains from various load areas. However, transatlantic rates softened as a lack of fresh business in the North resulted in owners dropping their ideas to find cover. The Pacific saw the recently firm market in the North falter, with rates sharply down from the $14,000 seen the previous week due to a lack of new business. However, the SE Pacific remained very active, especially from Indonesia, with charterers forced to pay a premium for shorter duration trips, with ships delivering Singapore achieving $15,000 daily. Period interest continued, particularly for one year, with rates for standard types averaging in the $13,000s daily.

Supramax
US Gulf captured the spotlight this week in the Supramax-Ultramax pool. Rates moved sharply higher for the Gulf area with cargoes for late June dates lending support. Brokers also suggested that the benchmark for the EC South America market was set particularly high. A short week in Singapore, with a national holiday on Friday and a China holiday coming, slowed activity in the Pacific towards the weekend. On the period front, a 61,000-dwt open South Africa was linked to a one-year period at $14,250. Another 63,000-dwt open in the Persian Gulf was fixed for a short period at a rate in the low $14,000s.

A 60,000-dwt and a 63,000-dwt, both open EC US, were fixed for a trip to the Continent at $18,500 and $16,500 respectively. A 63,000-dwt open in the US Gulf was booked to redeliver in Brazil at $18,000. From EC South America, a trip to the Arabian Gulf or the Far East paid a rate in the $15,000s plus a ballast bonus of ranging from low to high $500,000 on an Ultramax, similar rates paid for standard Panamaxes on this route.

In the East, a 53,000-dwt open Philippines was fixed for a trip via Indonesia to South Korea at around $10,750. A coal trip via Indonesia to China ranged from the mid $11,000s to $13,000s on Supramax vessels delivery in Singapore. A 56,000-dwt open CJK was booked for moving steel to Southeast Asia at $10,500, while a long haul trip to West Africa was reportedly fixed on a 61,000-dwt at $9,800 for the first 60 days and $14,000 thereafter, basis North China delivery.

Handysize
Most market sources suggested from EC South America, larger-sized handy vessels were seeing improved offers, with more cargoes in the market for second-half June. However, some were not fully convinced whether the upcoming cargoes would balance out the long tonnage list in the area. Rates for the US Gulf routes climbed further, but little was reported. In the Pacific, activity focused on the bigger sizes over the small handy vessels, brokers said.

A 38,000-dwt open Bahia Blanca was fixed to Brazil at $8,400. Two 37,000-dwt were fixed both from EC South America to the Mediterranean at $9,250 and $11,000. A 28,000-dwt open South China was said to have gone for an Australia round voyage at $8,600. A 36,000-dwt open Singapore was booked to run via Australia to Japan at $10,600.
Source: The Baltic Briefing

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-capesize-index-shows-further-improvement/
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Kbkristi
15.06.2018 kl 15:53 9624

Takk for det Kjepet, og riktig god helg til alle goglere :)
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KJEPET
15.06.2018 kl 15:16 9697

Pent kbkristi. Har selv stort seg gått med klorvann i ørene i dag.

Ser at kursen har falt noe tilbake. Men som du vet så sitter jeg både opp og ned med GOGL. Bare å kose seg i kveld med gevinsten, og husk nok inntak av væske:-) God helg!
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Kbkristi
15.06.2018 kl 14:57 9732

Da sier jeg meg fornøyd med dagens trade. Fikk snittet ned inngangen med kr 1,50 så da er jeg all in igjen. I dag blir mine verter invitert ut på en bedre middag :)
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Wilde
15.06.2018 kl 12:36 9915

RSI over 70 og handelskrig på trappene er god grunn til å ta gevinst. Ved nedgang ned mot støtten på 72 kan inngang vurderes igjen, men jeg er redd før at støtten ryker om USA utløser en handelskrig på flere fronter.
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Volf
15.06.2018 kl 12:12 9982

BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +1,5% TIL USD 18.244/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er opp 1,5 prosent til 18.244 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
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Kbkristi
15.06.2018 kl 12:05 9810

RSI ligger over 70, så nå tar nok flere enn meg gevinst.
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Kbkristi
15.06.2018 kl 11:42 9850

Er også i Syden Kjepet, tok pengene og løp igjen:) Kan kjøpe meg hus her nede nå, hehee. Men skal inn igjen. Men nå synes jeg det blir for vilt :)
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Sa2ri
15.06.2018 kl 09:58 9970

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Drybulk is still the winner, with Brazilian ore-cargoes starting to impact the market thoroughly."
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eriksu2
15.06.2018 kl 09:48 10025

Pareto nytt kursmål 11,5$ :-)
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Gull i pungen
15.06.2018 kl 09:47 10025

Fest setebeltene!!!

Vi skal fly høyt i dag :-)
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Sa2ri
15.06.2018 kl 09:38 10077

Det er vel motstanden som brytes, ikke støtten ;-) Uansett, det ser ut til å bli en god dag :-)
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KJEPET
15.06.2018 kl 09:37 10087

Alle motstander ser nå ut til og brytes. Bare å slippe raketten fri. Grattis til alle tålmodige GOGL'ere :-)

EDIT: Takk Sa2ri. Skrev støtten (og ikke motstanden) i rødvinsrusen her i sydlige breddegrader:-)
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Gull i pungen
15.06.2018 kl 09:35 10093

Høyt volum i dag.

25,57 mill kroner første halvtimen...

Mange som skal inn :-)
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Wilde
15.06.2018 kl 08:50 10200

Jeg tror vi kan få mer en 5 % i dag. Det er har vært mange sterke signaler over et lengre tidsrom nå, - og det ser ut til at GOGL stadig vekk havner på radaren til flere og flere. Det er en del som sitter short her som må ut asap for å ikke gå på store smeller.
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KJEPET
15.06.2018 kl 08:41 10221

Jepp, herlig. Nye 5% opp i dag?

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/06/Kjoep-disse-fire-aksjene
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hvasa
15.06.2018 kl 08:39 10088

DNB markeds oppgraderer bulk sektoren. Har Gogl som førstevalg. Dette ser lyst ut :)
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Sa2ri
15.06.2018 kl 07:36 10171

Dry Bulk FFA: The Sky is Clear for Capes
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 14/06/2018

Capesize Commentary:
The bullish sentiment on capes gathered momentum yesterday with paper leading the charge for the early part of the day. The modest gains on the index were a touch better than the general feeling it would be flat and, after a pause, rates pushed on in the afternoon session as rumours circulated of C3 fixing 19.50 & 19.65 although no details emerged as the day drew to a close.

Panamax Commentary:
It was a relatively choppy day on Panamax paper with another disappointing index in contrast to the positive sentiment of the underlying fuelling the intraday volatility. However, by the close of play we finished up on the day with a flurry of buying seeing July and Q3 trading up to $12600 and $12750 respectively. We closed with buyers looking to repeat last.

Supramax Commentary:
Supramax paper opened the day on a slightly stronger note than were we closed last night as June was trading $11450, Q3 $12350 and Q4 was seen trading $12800 throughout the day. After index we started to see some slightly softer numbers with July being sold $12100 and Q3 $12250.

Handysize Commentary:
Quiet day on handy paper with no reported trading.

Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-the-sky-is-clear-for-capes/
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Sa2ri
14.06.2018 kl 20:27 10371

Fra Twitter akkurat nå:

#capesize Market shows positive activity in South Atl and Pac, cargo volumes also showing sparkle mostly on transatlantic #reported 160k coal Bolivar/Rotterdam w/early July laycans at $10/tb1 yr T/C week 23 usd 18,5k/19,25k

og

#FFA Capesize Jul’18/Q3’18 16950/18900
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KJEPET
14.06.2018 kl 15:34 10738

Synlig short ble øket med 150k aksjer i går.
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Sa2ri
14.06.2018 kl 14:47 10808

Det ser ut til at noen ikke helt har fått med seg at den tekniske motstanden som tidligere var på 72,60/73,00 nå er justert ned til ca. 72,00 etter at aksjen gikk ex. utbytte med 0,80. GOGL ligger i en rektangelformasjon mellom ca. 56,- og 72,-. Dersom vi slutter over 72,- i dag, hvilket er veldig sannsynlig, bryter aksjen opp av denne rektangelformasjonen og gir da et sterkt kjøpssignal. Formasjonen har target på ca. 88,-.

Vi kan jo tenke oss en/flere som solgte 50' aksjer på tirsdag. Vedkommende går glipp av utbytte på ca. 40', i tillegg til at kursen nå har steget ca. 3,55 siden den gang. Dersom vedkommende ikke har kjøpt seg inn i mellomtiden, er tapet bare på kursoppgangen i overkant av 177'. Legger man disse sammen, ja da blir dette et tap på ca. 217'. Ikke for å helle malurt i begeret til noen, men i etterpåklokskapens lys var det nok ikke så lurt å selge dagen før ex.dato.
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Sa2ri
14.06.2018 kl 11:59 11009

2018-06-14 10:47:02 CET
BULK:CERES SOLGT CAPESIZEN "RED CHERRY" FOR USD 45M -PARETO
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Ceres har solgt det tre år gamle capesizeskipet "Red Cherry" for 45 millioner dollar.

Det fremkommer av en oppdatering fra Pareto Securities torsdag.

Ifølge meglerhuset blir skipet solgt med et ni-måneders timecharter med en rate på 18.000 dollar pr dag. Pareto poengterer at dette er lavere enn nylige inngåtte charteravtaler for blant annet Golden Ocean Group og CTM, som har vært på mellom 23.000 og 24.000 dollar pr dag for like gamle skip.

Pareto argumenterer for at verdien av tre år gamle capesize-skip uten timecharter inkludert, nå beveger seg mot 46 til 47 millioner dollar, og meglerhuset oppjusterer den verdijusterte egenkapitalen (NAV) på Golden Ocean til 70 kroner fra tidligere 63.

PSP, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
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Mollen
14.06.2018 kl 11:56 11034

Jeg ser at ca 1,6 % av aksjene i GOGL (ca 2,3 mill aksjer) er solgt short. Der sitter noen og biter negler nå. Begynner de å dekke inn så blir dette morsomt. Stiger aksjen i morgen og til uken tipper jeg inndekkingen begynner for fullt. Mine aksjer skal de jaggu få betale dyrt for.
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Mollen
14.06.2018 kl 11:48 11057

Håper på noenlunde god oppgang i BDI i dag. det skulle gi den litt ekstra fart utover dagen.
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Mollen
14.06.2018 kl 11:48 11058

Håper på noenlunde god oppgang i BDI i dag. det skulle gi den litt ekstra fart utover dagen.
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domboshawa
14.06.2018 kl 11:44 11078

Dette er bunnsolid, sett i relasjon til en negativ børsdag og utbytte!
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KJEPET
14.06.2018 kl 11:31 11133

Godt å se at meglerhusene følger med:-)

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/06/Kvitter-seg-med-bulkskip

Med NAV x1,15 (som GOGL minimum bør ligge på) får vi en kurs på 80,50.-.
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Kbkristi
14.06.2018 kl 11:04 11223

Satt også nettopp og så på den OHS, moro skal det bli :)
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KJEPET
14.06.2018 kl 10:59 11237

RSInvest. Ja, det tror jeg. Behovet for kull er skrikende, og kull brukes ikke bare til oppvarming...... Som du ser fikk vi bruddet opp i dag over forrige topp på høyt volum. Dette gir også Golden Cross som vi hadde for noen dager siden ytterligere styrke. GOGL kommer til å gi en fantastisk avkastning de neste 2-3 årene. Ser også ut som markedet etterhvert begynner å få opp øynene. Det tok sin tid :-)

Om du legger godviljen til og ser en OHS- med dobbel høyre skulder, er potensialet i kursen 86.- på to måneders sikt. Det er realistisk.

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Kbkristi
14.06.2018 kl 10:31 11318

Flott kurs idag da. Legger vi til ca kr 1,60 i utbytte, så er vi faktisk på årsbeste.
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Kbkristi
14.06.2018 kl 10:04 11395

Jo, jeg prøver å trade litt, stort sett med hell, men slett ikke alltid. Har faktisk en avkastning nå på 50,3% av innskutt kapital. Så jeg er meget fornøyd. Jeg får abstinenser om jeg er ute av Gogl over natten :)
Moro å se at Gogl ligger både på vinnerlista og mest omsatt.
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Slettet bruker
14.06.2018 kl 10:01 11413

Du har tro på at vi kanskje bryter ut av rektangelet ila. sommeren?
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KJEPET
14.06.2018 kl 09:36 11486

Da var volumet tilbake på oppgangen. Bryter vi 71,30.- i dag så er raketten i gang.

Godt å se deg tilbake i GOGL igjen kbkristi. Var litt bekymret et øyeblikk når du tok ut pengene og løp :-). Det er jo nå festen begynner.
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