GOGL - Juni #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 01.06.2018 kl 07:23 45930

Dry Bulk Market: June Promises to be a “Hot” Market says shipbroker
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 01/06/2018

There are a number of variables coming into play in the dry bulk market at the moment, enough to mark a shift in the freight rate dynamics. In its latest weekly report, Allied Shipbroking claims that “it’s looking as though June will turn out to be a “hot” month after all, given the most recent trade news that have emerged in the Dry Bulk space. The US and China made a significant step back this weekend in reference to their most recent trade disputes. Washington announced that it plans to step back on its decision to impose US$ 150bn of import tariffs, while China on its side, also promised to “significantly increase” its energy and agricultural imports from the US. All this comes in the midst of the BDI having plunged to just above a “hair” margin above the 1,000-point mark”.

According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Allied’s Head of Research & Valuations, “the recent trade frictions had surely played their part over the past couple of months, with the Atlantic basin having felt the major brunt of this having shown significant lack of support in terms of demand especially on the smaller size segments. There will surely be a time lag before things make a turn around, but it now looks as though the right foundation has been placed in order for a much better market to take shape. This is all to be focused primarily on the grain trade, with Brazil’s strikes having held back any potential shift in trade recently and having caused an overall draught in the region in terms of fresh cargoes to emerge. Given however the reestablishment of US farmers back on center stage, it wouldn’t be a surprise if we were to see a surge in activity to emerge in the North Atlantic, as most traders look to quickly move back in. This in part has been reflected by the recent rally noted in the prices of grains and soybeans these past few days, with most having enjoyed a 1 to 2 % increase since this week’s opening”.

Lazaridis added that “at the same time, it looks as though we may also be seeing a flourishing trade emerge on the side of coal. China is now considering a plan to increase its purchasing of American coal as part of its most recent pledge to make significant efforts to narrow its trade deficit with the US. This goes to further boost the prospects of this trade at a time when China’s coal futures are set on track to make their biggest one-day gain since November 2016. Investors seems to be pilling on their bullish bets given that inventories at China’s power plants and major ports are lower than what we were seeing last year, while operating rates are higher”.

Allied’s analyst also noted that “putting iron ore into the mix and one would hope for a fair rally to take place in the early part of summer. Although we have seen a drop off in iron ore prices, with prices now looking to be closing in on their lowest level this year, there seems to be a fundamental shift taking place which may well be heralding a fair trade rally in terms of volumes shifted during the coming month. For the moment it looks as though the market has shifted towards lower iron ore grades, with the gap between them and medium and higher grades having decreased considerably over the past couple of days. One would have to take under consideration however that we are likely to see again this year a considerable spike in production of steel products, with most steel mills in China likely to seek to increase their stockpiles before the “pollution cap” starts once again in the final quarter of the year. What also needs to be taken under consideration is the fact that the improving trade relations between the US and China could also help hamper most worries in the market, allowing for market optimism amongst traders to return back once more. Let’s hope all these market aspects pull through the way we hope, and we get to see a back on track on its improvement course”, he concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-june-promises-to-be-a-hot-market-says-shipbroker/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 09:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
Shippingballs
22.06.2018 kl 09:54 7967

Jeg tør aldri å selge alt i en aksje jeg 'vet' kommer til å 'gå' på et eller annet tidspunkt. Derfor trader jeg kun deler av Gogl-beholdningen.Og nå som utbyttene har begynt, har man skaffet seg en sekundærinntekt, og da blir kurssvingningene lettere å bære.
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domboshawa
22.06.2018 kl 10:35 7887

Tror mye av psykologien her er relatert til en eventuell handelskrig, noe mer konkret i en eller annen retning vil nok være avgjørende for utviklingen. Dow begynner å bli veldig dyr - kan fort komme en justering. Vår løse kanon Donald skaper heller ikke trygghet og harmoni. Mye å forholde seg til om dagen!
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KJEPET
22.06.2018 kl 10:37 7880

Enig Shippingballs. Mange nervøse mennesker i markedet nå. Til slutt er det John Fredriksen som sitter igjen som vinner. Slik han har gjort det i shipping de siste 50 årene:-)
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Sa2ri
22.06.2018 kl 12:34 7723

BCI marginal opp i dag med 0,2% til USD 16.492/dag.
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Sa2ri
22.06.2018 kl 22:11 7535

Bulk report – Week 25
22 June 2018

Capesize
It was a week of two halves, with very slow trading initially spooking some owners/operators resulting in easier numbers across most areas. In the East, the miners were absent earlier and rates on the West Australia/China run slipped to the low $7.00s, even though BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto made an appearance towards the end of the week. Timecharter rates slipped to the mid-teens for Australian round voyages for standard 180,000-tonners, but with talk of a 1999-built 171,000-tonner fixing an EC Australian round at $15,000 daily as the week ended. As rates slipped from West Australia more owners/operators took the ballast option to head for South Africa or Brazil, prompting concerns that in turn rates could ease from those areas. The only real positive move in the market was on the Tubarao/Qingdao run, where $19.50 was done for first half July shipment, but this market remained plagued by rumours as some operators sought to cap rates. There was some talk of a 181,000-tonner, 2009 built, open Sines, fixing for a trip via Ponta Da Madeira to the East at $35,000 daily. The transatlantic market has been very slow, with 180,000-long ton, 10% cargo, fixed for 13-22 July shipment from Tubarao to Rotterdam at $8.20. Further north, there was little traded with some nervousness creeping into the market undermining rates. However, there remained some confidence going forward with period fixing still in evidence. A 2012-built Newcastlemax went in direct continuation from Qingdao for around two years trading at $20,000 daily.

Panamax
Spot market rates softened in almost all areas in a slow week, with holidays again impacting on trading. However, the period market remained firm with a newbuilding Kamsarmax said to have fixed ex yard for September delivery at $14,500, with a 2006 built Kamsarmax agreeing $13,750 for 11-13 months, both of which reflect levels paid for the past month or so. The Atlantic saw a good volume of activity from EC South America, but again rates have eased slightly with a lack of fresh enquiry taking its toll in the North Atlantic, where owners were hit especially hard for shorter Baltic/Murmansk round voyages. A 2009 built Panamax fixed at $8,000 compared to a 2002 built Panamax booked at $13,000 early the previous week. Elsewhere, rates have held up from the Black Sea and NC South America/US Gulf, but significantly less front haul activity seen from these areas. In the Pacific, there was a very healthy volume of coal moving to India, and minerals in general helped to offset the lack of grain enquiry. Larger vessels in premium positions continued to fix well, but smaller units suffered and with a shortage of longer trips available mainly fixed from Indonesia or ballasted to EC South America. A 2006 built Kamsarmax went on subjects delivery retroactive Singapore, for an EC South American round voyage at below $13,000, while a 2014 built Panamax achieved a similar level the previous week.

Supramax/Ultramax
It was a bit of a lacklustre week, certainly from the Atlantic basin, whilst areas in the Asian arena remained steady. Period activity was seen but older fixtures predominated. A 56,000-dwt was fixed basis delivery Hong Kong for four to six months trading at $13,000 daily. In the Atlantic a 62,400-dwt went for delivery Brazil for three to six months redelivery Atlantic at $14,750.

Limited activity in the Atlantic, with the Continent and East Mediterranean/Black Sea areas lacking interest, brokers said. Despite some trading in the US Gulf, tonnage lists continued to lengthen. A 57,000-dwt was rumoured fixed in the mid $15,000s from here to the Mediterranean. However, a 60,300-dwt was reported delivery NC South America for a trip to the Black Sea with coal at $21,500, a good rate but there was a time restraint and minimum lift for the cargo, brokers said.

In the Asian market, after a slow start with recent holidays in key areas, some improved numbers were talked from South East Asia. A 61,400-dwt allegedly fixed basis delivery Singapore for a trip via Indonesia to China at $14,500. Further north, a 63,000-dwt agreed delivery Lianyungang for a trip via the Philippines to China with nickel ore at $13,200. A little more activity filtered out of the Indian Ocean with a 56,000-dwt was reported delivery South Africa for redelivery Singapore-Japan in the mid $12,000s and around $250,000 ballast bonus.

Handysize
The Atlantic market was patchy last week, brokers said. The Continent generally traded sideways and with routes slowly losing ground with scrap shipments to the East Mediterranean and fertilizer cargoes being the primary drivers. A 35,856-dwt was reported fixed passing Skaw for a trip with scrap via St Petersburg redelivery Turkey at $12,500. The Black Sea remained slow though July could see a pick with more grain requirements appearing. A 38,000-dwt fixed delivery Damietta to Itaqui at around $7,000. From EC South America, routes saw positive moves with a 39,000-dwt rumoured fixed delivery Rio Grande to WC South America in the high $16,000s. Routes from the US Gulf also remained in positive territory. With the holidays in the Asian market recently, it was a slow week. A 29,900-dwt went for a trip from Jintang to India in the mid $11,000s. As the week closed out, there was a little more interest from SE Asia and improved rates discussed.

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-25-2/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 02:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
25.06.2018 kl 11:36 7115

Da var jeg inne igjen i GOGL. Ca. 60 % av pengene i GOGL og resten i FLEX. Blir spennende hva som skjer fremover nå ??.
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domboshawa
25.06.2018 kl 12:25 7007

Jeg solgte alt på fredag og tror en god inngang kan være i August. Mye uro nå og mange avventer en mer konkret retning på en eventuell handelskrig.
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Volf
25.06.2018 kl 13:07 6915

Der gjorde du et godt trekk,domboshawa. Lykke til videre.
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domboshawa
25.06.2018 kl 13:10 6911

Takk i like måte! :-)
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Gull i pungen
25.06.2018 kl 15:23 6734

Baltic Dry-indeksen faller mandag 0,6 prosent til 1.333 poeng, ifølge TDN Direkt.

Capesize faller 0,4 prosent til 16.430. Panamax går tilbake 1,1 prosent til 10.772. Supramax er ned 1,0 prosent til 11.114, mens Handysize er uendret på 8.639.
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Kbkristi
25.06.2018 kl 21:19 6554

Ser ut som Volf får rett gitt. Tradene de siste dager har gått bra, selv om man er på biltur og må kjøre av for å få et nytt overblikk :)
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Sa2ri
27.06.2018 kl 22:52 6279

#Atlantic Capesize market shows signs of improvement goo.gl/qSvAFc #drybulk
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davan
27.06.2018 kl 22:58 6259

blir det noe utbytte snart??
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Sa2ri
28.06.2018 kl 07:00 6136

https://www.goldenocean.bm/dividend/
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Sa2ri
28.06.2018 kl 08:10 6071

Fra Fernley sin ukentlige oppdatering:

"It has been an interesting week with strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt. The Pacific on the other hand had a more negative trend, with C5 freight rates braking USD 7 in the middle of the week. The development is as expected considering the time of the year. Sentiment remains super strong for Q3 and Q4."

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/fw_week_26_2018.pdf
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Sa2ri
28.06.2018 kl 08:37 6036

BULK:STERK CAPESIZE-ETTERSPØRSEL UT AV BRASIL -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Den seneste uken har sett sterk etterspørsel etter capesize-skip ut fra Brasil, mens Stillehavet har hatt en mer negativ trend.

Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.

Utviklingen er som ventet på denne tiden av året, men sentimentet forblir "supersterkt" for tredje og fjerde kvartal, opplyses det.

I panamax-segmentet har ratene nå flatet mer ut på begge halvkuler, og befraktere avstår fra å gjøre noe i håp om svakere rater.

Supramaxaene så negativ utvikling den seneste uken, med fallende rater på de fleste ruter.

RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 32.400 31.000 18.000/37.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 9,60 8,65 5,30/10,00
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 8,20 8,10 5,40/10,00
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 9.500 10.500 7.100/13.750
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.800 18.600 15.000/19.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 5.100 5.200 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 10.200 11.300 9.000/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 11.000 12.150 11.000/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 10.750 10.750 8.000/12.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 16.800 17.000 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 19.000 19.250 17.000/20.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 17.000 17.000 15.750/18.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 12.400 12.500 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.500 12.350 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
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KJEPET
28.06.2018 kl 08:53 6008

Etter rateoppdateringene i går kveld å dømme så ligger vi nå å skraper rundt bunnen for denne gangen nå (tipper +-0 i dag). En uke eller to til nå drar vi raskt over $20-25k/d og får god inntjening de neste tre kvartalene. Er overrasket over at capen fortsatt holder seg over $16k/d. Hadde regnet med mer i intervallet $14-16 nå i lavsesongen.

Den kraftige økningen i skipsverdiene i år er mer etter forventningene, gitt de gode fremtidsutsiktene i bulk.
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kakarlss
28.06.2018 kl 13:35 5864

Hei noen som vet når utbytte i Gogl kommer? Skulle ikke det være i nærheten av den 28 juni?
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holysmoke
28.06.2018 kl 13:42 5851

Jepp, "on or about.."
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holysmoke
28.06.2018 kl 14:53 5773

Mine er på konto nå, ser jeg..
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Sa2ri
29.06.2018 kl 15:22 5583

Bulk report – Week 26
29 June 2018

Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end of the week to better levels as more cargo was quoting in both the Pacific and Atlantic.

Ore movements from West Australia were being fixed at around $7.20 level before dipping to $6.75 mid-week. By Thursday, Oldendorff had fixed Mingwah tonnage at $6.95 for mid-July loading and the sentiment was suggesting $7 might be breached again.

The KEPCO tender for Newcastle to Dangjin loading 16/20 July was awarded to Hyundai Glovis at $9.61.

US Steel fixed NYK tonnage for their 120,000 10% cargo from Quebec to Oita loading end July at around $32. Rates from Brazil nudged up a shade with recent fixtures like NYK’s ‘Lowlands Orchid’ (176,193 2005) loading Tubarao 20/25 July at $19.75 to Trafigura, while the ‘Ocean Confidence’ (174,332 2005 Daelim re-let) was loading 15/24 July at $19.80 to Polaris. Today there is talk of the ‘Gotia’ (178,010 2012 Phaethon re-let) fixing basis Sudeste to China with an eta of 24 July at $22.15 to Trafigura.

The Berge Weisshorn (171,995 2004) is said to have fixed trans-Atlantic business, but it is not certain whether on T/C basis or voyage, with rumours of a rate around $10.75 for Bolivar to Rotterdam being mentioned to Oldendorff.

Panamax
Finally, a week bereft of holidays and the market appeared to consolidate. The Atlantic saw more enquiry in the North for both front haul and trans-Atlantic trades, which has led to a clear out of tonnage, with rates stabilising and in some cases showing improvement. EC America was again very active and consumed a lot of ballasters. However, a weak Ultramax market has seen them take a few smaller stems, with an end July cargo from Paranagua to China fixed at $35.25 per mt this week, compared to $36.00 per mt last week. Despite this, in general, timecharter levels remained flat. The Pacific also began to turn the corner, with renewed grain enquiry in the North and more mineral business from Australia. However, the early ships continued to struggle to find cover and even the normally busy Indonesian market experienced a slower week. Owners are still being drawn to EC South America, and there was also more period interest as the paper market showed some improvement, with the next expected move likely to be up.

Supramax
With both basins struggling, it was a week full of negative sentiment. With less enquiry and longer tonnage lists, all routes lost ground. Despite the gloomy feel period activity remained. A 63,000-dwt open West Africa was covered for eight to ten months, trading at $14,000. From the East, a 60,400-dwt was reported fixed basis delivery Ganyu end of June for four to six months redelivery worldwide at $14,000.

In the Atlantic, pressure remained on rates, especially from the Eastern Mediterranean, with a ready supply of tonnage. An Ultramax was fixed at under $16,000 from here to the Far East. From the Continent, scrap continued to move, albeit with weaker rates. A 53,000-dwt was reported covered delivery Antwerp for a trip East Mediterranean at $11,900. Little activity from the US Gulf again this week, an Ultramax was linked to a front haul at close to $22,000 at the beginning of the week. From EC South America, limited activity, an Ultramax was on subjects for a trip to SE Asia at around $14,000 plus $400,000 ballast bonus.

The Asian market also lacked impetus. A 58,000-dwt was rumoured fixed basis delivery Dalian for a NoPac round redelivery Cebu at $11,350. Further south, a 56,000-dwt was fixed basis delivery Singapore trip via Indonesia, redelivery China, at $12,100. In addition, a 55,800-dwt was reported failed basis delivery Map Ta Phut, redelivery Chittagong, at $13,000. The Indian Ocean also had a lacklustre feel, but a 57,000-dwt was reported basis delivery Hazira trip via Bandar Abbas, redelivery EC India, at $15,000.

Handysize
Overall it was a dull week, with a single-digit drop for the Handysize index throughout the week. Most of the routes slipped in both the Atlantic and Pacific basin. On the period front, a 35,000-dwt 2018-built open Casablanca in early July was fixed for the balance of period for about five to seven months at a rate in the $11,000s. In the Mediterranean and the Black Sea area, a 31,000-dwt open Canakkale was failed for a trip via the Black Sea to the US Gulf at $7,500 for the first 40 days and $8,500 thereafter, and failed again for a similar run at $7,750 and $8,850 respectively. Another 33,500-dwt open Iskenderun, was later booked for this route at $6,500 for the first 40 days and $8,500 afterwards. There was also talk of a Handymax fixing at mid $12,000s for a Black Sea to Ravenna trip, whilst a 27,000-dwt open spot in Canakkale was reportedly failed on subjects for a trip to the similar redelivery at $8,000. A 35,000-dwt open Hamburg was fixed for a trip to the East Mediterranean at low $11,000. In the East, a 34,000-dwt open Cebu was fixed to run via Indonesia to Vietnam at $8,500.

For daily dry bulk assessments from the Baltic Exchange please visit www.balticexchange.com/market-information/

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-26-2/
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