China’s Trade Surplus Narrows—but Not With the U.S.

As overall surplus in May narrowed by 13% from April, surplus with the U.S. widened by 11%

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-trade-surplus-in-u-s-dollar-terms-narrows-in-may-1528430372?mod=e2tw

BREAKING: U.S. national security panel CFIUS approves biggest known Chinese deal since Trump took office--a $2.7 billion takeover of insurer Genworth Financial

....

China Oceanwide’s $2.7 Billion Takeover of Genworth Financial Passes U.S. Security Review
Largest publicly reported Chinese deal to win CFIUS blessing during Trump administration, still needs other approvals

WASHINGTON—A U.S. national security panel approved a Chinese conglomerate’s $2.7 billion takeover of Richmond, Va.-based insurer Genworth Financial Inc., after the companies convinced authorities they would take extraordinary steps to secure Americans’ personal data.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-oceanwides-2-7-billion-takeover-of-genworth-financial-passes-u-s-security-review-1528565043

Gut feeling er at vi ender opp med en fullskala handelskrig nå, der USA starter med å legge toll på 50 milliarder dollar fra Kina, og i tillegg effektuerer toll på stål og aluminium fra EU. Kineserne svarer som de har lovet med 50 milliarder i toll på amerikanske varer inn i Kina, og EU svarer med toll på endel utvalgte varer som varslet fra dem. Om kineserne og EU svarer på denne måten har Trump sagt at han vil legge toll på ytterligere 100-200 milliarder $ i toll på varer fra Kina, samt 25% toll på bilimport bla annet på tyske biler.
Resultatet er at verdenshandelen og produksjonen i verden faller tilbake til 1990 nivå!
Det ironiske med dette er at klimaskeptikeren Trump med hensikt å rette opp handelsbalansen samtidig gjør det som skal til for å løse klimakrisen, og redde artsmangfoldet på kloden ved at vi oppnår to gradersmålet med god margin! Fyren burde få Nobels fredpris og det bør snarest opprettes en "Nobels klimapris" spesielt for ham! :)

US preparing to proceed with tariffs on Chinese goods

Published June 13, 2018 | China Tariffs | Dow Jones Newswires

The Trump administration, deepening its global trade offensive, is preparing to levy tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of Chinese goods in the coming week, perhaps as early as Friday -- a move that is likely to spark heavy retaliation from Beijing.

Senior trade officials in the White House, Commerce and Treasury departments, and the U.S. Trade Representative's office met on the issue before President Donald Trump went to a summit of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Canada on Friday, and agreed that the U.S. should move ahead with tariffs, said U.S. officials and others briefed on the talks.

Mr. Trump hasn't given his final approval and could have second-thoughts about applying heavy pressure on China, the officials said, particularly because the U.S. wants Beijing's cooperation in its efforts to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

Mr. Trump arrived back in Washington on Wednesday morning after meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.

The exact amount of goods subject to tariffs is still being finalized. The administration's list was initially $50 billion in goods, but it is being refined as some products are taken off the list and others are added, following a public comment period.

The agreement by the heads of the agencies represents an unusual moment of consensus on trade in an administration often at odds with itself over how to proceed. Trade hawks in the administration want to crack down hard on China, while globalists are seeking compromise.

The Trump administration considers tariffs as necessary to press China to halt violations of U.S. intellectual property rules, including Beijing's forcing U.S. companies in China to transfer technology to their Chinese partners.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-preparing-to-proceed-with-tariffs-on-chinese-goods

China to impose 25 percent tariffs on 659 U.S. goods worth $50 billion

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will impose additional 25 percent tariffs on 659 U.S. goods worth $50 billion in response to the U.S. announcement that it will levy tariffs on Chinese imports, the Chinese commerce ministry said.

Tariffs on $34 billion of U.S. goods including agricultural products such as soybeans will take effect from July 6, the ministry said. Soybeans are China’s biggest import from the United States by value.

The tariffs will also be applied to autos and aquatic products, the ministry said.


The list of 659 U.S. goods was longer than a preliminary list of 106 goods published by the commerce ministry in April, although the value of products affected remained unchanged at $50 billion.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/china-to-impose-25-percent-tariff-on-659-u-s-goods-worth-50-billion-xinhua-idUSKBN1JB2MS

Slik jeg ser det er en høy toll mur rundt Kina en like stor fordel for REC enn ingen toll mur. Da vil USAs modul produsenter har ett bedre grunnlag for deres produkter. Det viktigste REC har gjort det siste årene er å tilpasse seg en utestengelse fra Kina, opphevet straffe toll blir en bonus, men om den ikke kommer kan en høyre mur mot Kinesiske produkter være en fordel. Med JV Yulin tar man del i det interne Kinesiske marked likevel. Jeg har i prinsipp sans for Trumps uttalelser og tiltak mot Kina, og jeg tror også at det er viktig at han søke reforhandlede avtaler med en rekke land. USAs handels underskudd er for stor, og de nåværende avtaler inngått for en del år siden er ikke lenge til USAs fordel. Trump får for lite støtte i pressen, og fra øvrige Vestlige land. De liker han bare ikke og vil alltid skrike mot han.

REC kan fortsatt levere en grei kontantstrøm og tilpasser seg enda mer at de ikke kan selge alt de produsere til KIna. REC kurs som den er idag er en gave til små investorer.

Nå er det jo slik at Kina har innført høye tollsatser på silisium fra USA for flere år siden.
Det er veldig bra at REC har tilpasset seg. Det som er faren med den nye handelskrigen er at ingen kjenner utfallet. Vi har en veldig stor usikkerhet. At denne jyplingene i SB1 har skrevet en artikkel der han sier REC kommer til å synke til 0,85 var jo bare basert på hans personlige vurderinger av hvordan han synes REC selgerne opptrer og hvordan kjøperne opptrer. Det var ikke relatert til noen andre faktiske forhold og såvidt jeg kan huske var ikke den nye handelskrigen nevnt heller. Denne nye handelskrigen omhandler ikke REC . Ok?

Den omhandler REC i det forstand at sentiment i det siste er redd for at Kinesisk overproduksjon kommer etter at FiT avslutter for nye prosjekter, og en forestilling at overkapasiteten skal dumpes på ROW og svekker produsenter som levere til deler av verdikjeden. Det var mitt poeng. I så fal kan en høy toll mur mot Kina være til fordel for amerikanske produsenter. Jeg er enig ellers at handelskrigen omhandler ikke REC direkte. Meglerhusene har ingen troverdighet med sine analyser, det er ingen som ser på de ekstreme spådommer som balanserte, men de skremmer (med hensikt) markedet. Det er sannsynlig at SB1 står bak en ny short som de ønsker å tjener penger på. Dermed kastet de ut ett skremmeskudd. Jeg ser på en lav REC kurs som en gave, kursen kommer til å bli kjørt opp igjen, som vanlig.

Veldig bra!

Det kan også være at hypervolumet fredag ettermiddag skyldtes inndekning av tidligere short, der store mengder stop loss og andre salgsposter ga (som vanlig) en ypperlig anledning til å unngå skvis ved inndekning. Hvis shortregisteret mandag etterniddag viser plutselig nedgang, så stemmer vel denne hypotesen.

Du får ikke vite det før tirs\onsdag?

Ja, det har du vel rett i...

Hi-hi; Kina leter febrilsk etter amerikanske produkter de kan belaste med toll. De er nødt til å gjengjelde for å ikke framstå som den tapende i tollkonflikten. Men problemet er jo at det er for liten import til at de kan gjøre dette på en saklig måte. De kan jo ikke tollbelegge alle importvarer fra Amerika....!? Da nærmer det seg blokkade/handelsforbud, og det vil se helt annerledes ut.

Når Kina endelig finner produkter til $50 mrd, er det bare å håpe at Trumpen slår til med toll på enda flere produkter.

Og hva skjer dersom Kina legger toll på toll på poly? Jo, for det første blir det en ekstra bør på de selskaper som er forpliktet å kjøpe fra Hemlock pga langtidskontrakter. Ingen kjøper jo poly fra Hemlock til kostnader de leverer til frivillig. Og toll på toll høres jo heller ikke bra ut. Men kinamann fornekter seg kanskje ikke ...?

REC har solgt poly til Kina tidligere, men pga 57 % toll så er det neppe god butikk for REC. Så den kan vi kanskje være foruten. REC har demonstrert at de kan kjøre trinnløst i Moses Lake, så da blir de vel kanskje en stund til rundt 50 % av fabrikkapasitet.

Kina inntog som handelsstormakt har stort sett gått upåaktet hen i USA. Men nå er det på tide at man sier nok er nok! Da vil nok Kina oppdage at det lønner seg å rette seg etter regler likevel.

Det er veldig mange solprosjekter i ROW så det vil ikke forundre meg om vi snart får en kjempetrigger i REC, noe annet ville jo nesten vært rart.

Trump ratchets up China trade conflict with fresh tariff threat

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting a swift warning from Beijing of retaliation, as the trade conflict between the world’s two biggest economies quickly escalated.

Trump’s latest move, as Washington fights trade battles on several fronts, was unexpectedly swift and sharp.

It was retaliation, he said, for China’s decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods, which came after Trump announced similar tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday.

“After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced,” Trump said in a statement on Monday.

The news sent global stock markets skidding and weakened both the dollar and the Chinese yuan in Asian trade on Tuesday.[MKTS/GLOB][FRX/]

China’s commerce ministry said Beijing will fight back firmly with “qualitative” and “quantitative” measures if the United States publishes an additional list of tariffs on Chinese goods, accusing Washington of launching a trade war.

“Such a practice of extreme pressure and blackmailing deviates from the consensus reached by both sides on multiple occasions,” the ministry said in a statement.

“The United States has initiated a trade war and violated market regulations, and is harming the interests of not just the people of China and the U.S., but of the world,” it said.

Washington and Beijing appeared increasingly headed toward open trade conflict after several rounds of talks failed to resolve U.S. complaints over Chinese industrial policies, lack of market access in China and a $375 billion U.S. trade deficit.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said his office was preparing the proposed tariffs and they would undergo a similar legal process as previous ones, which were subject to a public comment period, a public hearing and some revisions. He did not say when the new target list would be unveiled.

“As China hawks, like Lighthizer and (Peter) Navarro, appear to have gained power within the Trump administration lately, an all-out trade war now seems more inevitable,” said Yasunari Ueno, chief market analyst at Mizuho Securities in Japan.

TIT-FOR-TAT

On Friday, Trump said he was pushing ahead with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese products, prompting Beijing to respond in kind.

Some of those tariffs will be applied from July 6, while the White House is expected to announce restrictions on investments by Chinese companies in the United States by June 30.

“China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology. Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening United States companies, workers, and farmers who have done nothing wrong,” Trump said.

Trump said if China increases its tariffs again in response to the latest U.S. move, “we will meet that action by pursuing additional tariffs on another $200 billion of goods.”

Trump said he has “an excellent relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and they “will continue working together on many issues.”

But, he said, “the United States will no longer be taken advantage of on trade by China and other countries in the world.”

ZTE TUMBLES
Shares in Chinese telecommunication equipment maker ZTE Corp, another casualty of U.S.-China tensions, plunged more than 20 percent in Hong Kong after the U.S. Senate’s passage of a defense bill set up a potential battle with Trump over whether ZTE can resume business with its U.S. suppliers.

ZTE was hit in April with a seven-year ban barring U.S. suppliers selling to it after it broke an agreement to discipline executives who conspired to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran and North Korea. At Trump’s urging, ZTE and the U.S. Commerce Department reached agreement on June 7 to lift the ban.

The intensifying trade row is threatening to put more pressure on the already cooling Chinese economy, risking an end to a rare spell of synchronized global expansion.

China’s central bank unexpectedly injected 200 billion yuan ($31 billion) in medium-term funds into the banking system on Tuesday in a move that analysts said reflected concerns about liquidity but also the potential economic drag from a full-blown trade war.

OTHER OPTIONS FOR CHINA
China imported $129.89 billion of U.S. goods last year, while the U.S. purchased $505.47 billion of Chinese products, according to U.S. data.

Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, said that means China will soon run out of imports of U.S. goods on which to impose retaliatory tariffs.

He added that China was unlikely to respond to an announcement of tariffs with changes in industrial policies. Those could take a long and painful trade fight.

“As I’ve said from the beginning, China will back off its industrial plans only when U.S. trade measures are large and lasting enough to threaten the influx of foreign exchange. Not due to announcements,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-ratchets-up-china-trade-conflict-with-fresh-tariff-threat-idUSKBN1JE2ZQ

Kineserne har litt problemer nå. $129.89 mrd mot $505.47 mrd. USA la toll på 10 % av Kinas totale eksport til USA, men så eskalerer Kina ved å legge toll på hele 38 % av det USA eksportere til Kina.

"Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, said that means China will soon run out of imports of U.S. goods on which to impose retaliatory tariffs."

Nå skal Trumpen innføre toll på 40 % av kinesisk eksport. Da må kinamann tollbelegge all amerikansk eksport til Kina for å matche mest mulig, men selv det blir ikke nok. Fordi de kjøper ikke så mye fra USA. Likevel har de sagt at USA har vel så mye å tape på en handelskrig. Vel, nå får de jaggu sjansen til å vise hvordan.

Som jeg sa; forhandlinger med Kina fører bare til at kineserne uthaler det hele. Det blir bare prat. Europa bør følge i USAs fotspor. Å forhandle med dem hjelper rett og slett ikke. Er noe i kulturen eller i mentaliteten. Kan noen nevne et eksempel på hvor forhandlinger med Kina hjalp, som ga rettferdige resultat?

Trade Fight With U.S. Complicates China’s Campaign to Contain Debt

Recent economic expansion seems to be ebbing, triggering calls for Beijing to reopen credit spigot before trade conflict further dents growth

BEIJING—A bruising trade fight with the U.S. lands at a difficult time for China as its economy contends with rising headwinds, constraining Chinese President Xi Jinping’s options.

While Chinese officials have been bracing for a trade war for months—promising to match the Trump administration measure for measure—signs are rising that China’s recent economic expansion is ebbing, from weakening investment and household consumption to increasing corporate defaults, in part due to a key Xi initiative to contain debt and fend off financial risks.

That slowdown is triggering mounting calls from some corners of the government for Beijing to reopen the credit spigot and ease off on Mr. Xi’s program before the trade conflict further dents growth.

“It’s a testing moment for Beijing,” said Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Group, a Sydney-based investment bank.

Soaring levels of corporate and local government debt are seen by economists as potentially dragging down the world’s second largest economy. Getting a handle on debt has been a Xi priority.

The Trump administration’s simultaneous fights with the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Japan and others on trade give Beijing some breathing room, making it less likely that those traditional U.S. allies will mount a broad front against Chinese trade practices widely seen as unfair. It also gives the Chinese leadership a chance to pick up potential partners against Washington.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trade-fight-with-u-s-complicates-chinas-campaign-to-contain-debt-1529420230

REC må sees WW.

Verden, all over, skal inn i grønt sjikt. Ingen ønsker verdens undergang velkommen (unntatt idiotgamlingen Trump som snart er en saga blott).

REC er en svært konkurransedyktig aktør blitt i upcoming market. Vi kan sikkert også leve uten oldisen JUMO som fortjener en svært lang Tornerosedrøm på overtid.

JA det er ikke akkurat en sulten,ung og innovativ ledelse noe som også reflekterer aksjekursen.

Opphavet til tollen innført på import verdt $ 50 mrd var bl a brudd på IP-rettigheter.

Nå har det dukket opp enda et tilfelle der det blir hevdet at et kinesisk selskap stjeler tenkologi innen PV-bransjen. Nemlig at Huawei lager invertere som skal være basert på teknologi patentert av en annen inverterprodusent.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/19/solaredge-files-lawsuit-against-huawei-and-german-distributor-wattkraft/

Det er jo vanskelig å angripe et slikt tyveri inne i Kina basert på motvilje fra myndighetene der, men håpet er at en vestlig rett følger opp.

RUSSIA WILL TAKE CHINA'S SIDE AGAINST U.S. IN WORLD TRADE WAR

Russia's economic development minister revealed Tuesday that his government was prepared to side with China in a burgeoning global trade war with the U.S.

President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies have led China and the European Union to hit back at new U.S. tariffs intended to discourage foreign purchases of steel and aluminum. As a result, the Russian minister, Maxim Oreshkin, said Moscow would assert its rights as guaranteed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to retaliate with duties against U.S. imports.

"Due to the fact that the U.S. continues to apply protective measures in the form of additional import duties on steel and aluminum and refuses to provide compensation for Russia's losses, Russia is using its WTO rights and introducing balancing measures with respect to imports from the United States," Oreshkin said, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant.

Oreshkin noted that such measures will affect only products that "have alternatives within the Russian Federation" and that the final list would be announced by his ministry in the coming days. While declining to go into specifics, he said the duties would not include medicines but may include construction products.

In a bid to protect local manufacturing and "fair" global trade, Trump signed executive orders in March that imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent one on aluminum imports. The move, which went into effect March 23, was seen as targeting China particularly and included temporary exemptions that shielded U.S. allies Canada, the EU and Mexico. But with these exemptions expiring at the beginning of the month, nations have been hitting back at the U.S.

The EU and India have already joined China and Russia in bringing cases against the U.S. at the WTO. Russia has calculated the damage of its proposed tariffs to be about $537.6 million, while Oreshkin said Tuesday that the first stage of tariffs against the U.S. would amount to about $93 million.

Meanwhile, China has already opened a $3 billion WTO suit against the U.S. after Trump vowed to impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. The EU has announced about $3.4 billion in tariffs to begin immediately, with the potential for billions more, depending on the outcome of the WTO case. Neighboring Canada and Mexico have announced their own tariffs that amount to about $12.8 billion and $3 billion, respectively.

The collapse of traditional U.S. North American and trans-Atlantic alliances amid a looming trade war has come as Russia and China bolster their own bilateral ties and seek to enhance their standing on the world stage.

In addition to being targeted by Trump's tariffs, Russia's and China's political and military activities were singled out in the same "America First" national security strategy that called for "fair trade enforcement actions when necessary." Russia and China have dismissed U.S. criticism, accusing Washington of being stuck in the Cold War as they move to improve their global clout.

Russia's stance in the ongoing trade conflict is only the latest sign that the U.S.'s two top rivals were increasingly allying. In April, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng told his Russian counterpart that his delegation to Moscow had "come to support" Russia and "show Americans the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia" amid a series of high-level meetings that culminated in Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to meet President Xi Jinping in China.

Both countries have also pursued joint defense drills with greater frequency. In August, they will join other regional powers for a massive multilateral exercise utilizing 3,000 troops and 500 weapons systems in Russia's Ural Mountains.

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-will-take-china-side-against-us-world-trade-war-986417

U.S. Plans Curbs on Chinese Investment, Citing Security Risk

Possible approach would be two-track CFIUS review process

The Treasury Department is planning to heighten scrutiny of Chinese investments in sensitive U.S. industries under an emergency law, putting Washington’s trade war with Beijing on a potentially irreversible course.

Under the plan, the White House would use one of the most significant legal measures available to declare China’s investment in U.S. companies involved in technologies such as new-energy vehicles, robotics and aerospace a threat to economic and national security, according to eight people familiar with the plans.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in a report scheduled to be released on June 29, will suggest administering that law through an inter-agency government panel called the Committee on Foreign Investments in the U.S., or CFIUS, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss the plans.


A Treasury spokesman did not immediately reply to a request for comment. China’s Ministry of Commerce didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg’s inquiry about the report of planned investment curbs from the U.S.

One concept under review would be to create a two-tracked CFIUS process to review investments, with one specifically for China, two of the people said.

"It is now clear that Trump’s policy is not about the trade deficit," said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist for Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. "Security risks can be applied to every aspect in a bilateral relationship, investment restrictions in particular."

Mnuchin has been working on the plans since as early as December, though he’s argued for taking a less aggressive approach, the people said. In the end, he’s been persuaded by other members of the Cabinet and the president to use blunt tools to address growing national security risks from Chinese investments, the people said.

The Treasury chief has kept a low profile in recent weeks. People familiar with Mnuchin’s thinking said that after he lost an internal battle on how to handle the trade dispute with Beijing, he’s signaling his disagreement with the president’s approach through silence.


Some administration officials are concerned that declaring a national economic emergency could hammer the stock market or hurt U.S. firms operating in China, they said.

The South China Morning Post reported on Sunday that China has no plan to target U.S. companies operating in the nation amid escalating trade tensions, but additional steps by the White House may change that assessment.

The national emergency law, called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, will target prospective investments, meaning existing ones cannot be undone, according to four of the people. It’s unclear what would happen to deals that have been announced but not yet completed. Treasury officials are trying to settle on legal definition of “Chinese entities’’ that would be affected.

The Treasury Department is working on rules to block firms with at least 25 percent Chinese ownership from buying companies with "industrially significant technology," the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the plans. The final limit may end up lower than that, and the administration is also working on export controls to stop U.S. technology being exported to China, the people said.

Navarro Manifesto

Trump’s top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has been laying the groundwork to escalate what he’s so far called a “trade dispute.’’

Navarro recently issued a 36-page report on “How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World.” The report is seen as part of the evidence the administration will use to justify the investment curbs on economic security grounds.

Much of China’s “behavior constitutes an economic aggression,’’ Navarro said during a phone briefing with reporters. “It is critical both for the interests of the United States as well as for the integrity and proper functioning of the global economy that the Chinese cease these kinds of behaviors.’’

Treasury’s move is part of the Trump administration’s actions taken under Section 301 to respond to China’s alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property and follows rounds of tit-for-tat tariff threats between the two largest economies.

The IEEPA statute allows the president to unilaterally impose the investment limits. Congress, in parallel, is working on reform legislation to the CFIUS, That would scrutinize inbound investment in the U.S. on national security grounds.

People familiar with the administration’s plans said Treasury’s investment limits are seen as complementing the CFIUS reform efforts, which are not only focused on China and don’t limit investments on economic security grounds.

The people briefed on the latest action said the Treasury limits will be rolled out in phases, meaning not all Made in China 2025 sectors will be covered at once.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-24/u-s-plans-curbs-on-chinese-investment-citing-security-risks

Can We Avoid A China Trade War?

President Trump’s decision this week to pursue a more conventional approach to Chinese investment raised hopes that a broader trade war might be averted. In the case of investment policy, the ongoing move in Congress to rework the national security review policy provided a convenient alternative to aggressive executive measures. Is there any comparable off-ramp from the path to a trade war?

...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillevy/2018/06/28/can-we-avoid-a-china-trade-war/#4694a1262db9

The Trade Deficit Is China’s Problem

The Trump administration views the U.S.-China trade relationship upside down: It’s not Americans who suffer from Chinese surplus.

...

China attracts less capital than either the United Kingdom or the United States, two mature developed economies that theoretically should offer fewer opportunities than China. More ominously still: By far the largest source of nominally foreign investment in China—69 percent of all received—is Hong Kong. That money looks more like laundered and recycled domestic Chinese money than true foreign investment.


China’s trade surplus is the flipside of its failure to attract foreign direct investment. It’s an axiom of national accounting that the current account (the trade balance plus earnings on overseas investment) must precisely equal the capital account (net foreign investment in a country).

The story that China’s trade surplus produces China capital surplus could be flipped, to be told as China’s capital surplus produces China trade surplus. And while the word “surplus” sounds like a good thing either way, for a country like China, a capital surplus is actually a very bad thing.

China’s foreign investment is working out exactly as economic theory would predict: It is yielding much lower returns than it would if it were invested in productive enterprise at home. A 2008 World Bank study found that the average return on multinational corporations’ investments in China was 22 percent. American multinationals earned even more, an average of 33 percent. China earns less than 3 percent on its immense holdings of U.S. Treasury.

...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/china-losing-the-trade-war/563030/

For dere som er i tvil om hvordan Kina oppfører seg innen handel og vandel:

Enda et eksempel på hvordan en nykomling i Kina har stjålet og oppnådd særfordeler vha det kinesiske rettssystemet på bekostning av et veletablert vestlig/amerikansk selskap. Det fjerde største komponentselskapet i verden, Micron Technology, anklaget et kinesisk selskap for brudd på IP-rettigheter. Det kinesiske rettssyetemet snur saken på hodet, og forbyr amerikanerne å selge chipene innen Kina. På den måten hjelper de fram sine egen industri.

https://semiengineering.com/micron-suffers-legal-setback-in-china/
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-china-court-sales-chips-firm.html

Jeg gratulerer verden i dag med innførsel av amerikansk toll mot Kina. Håper likeså at resten av verden følger etter. Uansett hva man måtte mene om dagens amerikanske president, så er innføringen av tollen i dag kanskje det eneste som fungerer. I en årerekke har embedsmenn forsøk å snakke til kineserne om systematiske brudd på IP-rettigheter, men til ingen nytte.

HUSK: Opphavet til tollen innført på import verdt $ ~50 mrd er bl a brudd på IP-rettigheter som Kina aldri har tatt alvorlig.

Likevel fortsetter kineserne sin propaganda:
"USA har brutt reglene til Verdens handelsorganisasjon og innledet den største handelskrigen i økonomisk historie, heter det i en uttalelse fra Kinas handelsdepartement" Hvem er det som virkelig bryter regler ...!?

Konklusjon: Slutt å kjøpe produkter merket med "Made in China" eller "Made in PRC" !

JBG!!

Enig

Helt sant JBG, la Kina få føle det de hevder at de er , ett utviklingsland :-)
De frarøver det de kan å har lite eller ingen utvikling selv , om de får fortsette vil det bare bli verre ,meget kan sies om Trump , han er den eneste som virkelig kan adressere problemene til de virkelige årsakene :-)
Verden og også Rec vil nok komme styrket ut av dette , tviler på at det blir noe langvarig eskalering av noe handelskrig , Kina vet nok hva de utsetter seg for :-)

Hjelper lite å utbasunere at vi skal slutte å kjøpe kina-produserte varer, for det er og blir egen lommebok som avgjør for de aller fleste. Og innkjøpere i det offentlige er verstinger! Lokalt der jeg bor skulle en stor steinmur utbedres ved kirken, og istedenfor å kjøpe stein fra nabokommunen så kom det pallelass med stein helt fra Kina som var billigere.

Trump er verdens største idiot når det gjelder kommunikasjon, så han klarer å forkludre alt også i denne saken. Tror knapt denne oransje dusten har hørt om forhandlinger, rådslagning og fredspipe. Mange er enig at Kina stjeler patenter og gjemmer seg bak eldgamle handelsavtaler som burde vært revidert, men måten Trumpeten går fram på gjør at han ikke klarer å få med seg flere til å presse Kinamann.
Og at Kina vil svare med samme mynt gjør vel ikke akkurat saken bedre for Rec?

Rec er og har hvert utestengt fra Kina i mange år , de ligger vel bedre ann enn de fleste vedrørende tilpasningen :-)

@ Tom Tank:

I beg to differ. Selvfølgelig hjelper det. Kanskje de i det offentlige etterhvert skjønner at deres lønninger er basert på skattepenger pga næringer omkring i det ganske land, også steinbrudd i nabokommuner.

Enig i at Trump oppfører seg som en idiot i mange sammenhenger, og politikken er i samme gate, men folk tar feil på et punkt. I motsetning til hva folk har inntrykk av, har han lykkes med sin kommunikasjonsform.

Før vi slenger kritikk omkring: bidraget fra JUM, TT og REC Silicon til Kina er ikke til å stikke under en stol. De/vi har selv gjort vårt:

"Through loans from state banks, acquisitions of foreign companies, and technology-transfer agreements with foreign investors, the Chinese government threatens “the long-term competitiveness of U.S. industry,” according to a March report from Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. In the blunter words of President Donald Trump, “we can’t continue to allow China to rape our country.”

Merk dere spesielt: "technology-transfer agreements with foreign investors" og se på Yulin-JV som "alle" hadde forhåpninger rundt. REC Silicon har brakt både teknologi/know-how innen FBR-B, silanproduksjon og floatzone til Kina. Gratulerer!

Blir spennende å se hvordan dette Trade war (som alle eksperter mente ikke skulle skje) vil utvikle seg. Syns det er bra at rec ikke lenger er alene i denne saken. Nå får USA og Kina gjøre opp i en stor deal (or not). Burde kunne bli en forhandling når begge parter fått kjørt seg en periode.

«As Trump starts a trade war with China, Trump's businesses continue to benefit from partnerships involving the Chinese government.

Chinese gov't-backed firms are slated to work on parts of two large developments that will include Trump-branded properties.» - Kyle Griffin, Twitter

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-tariffs-near-trumps-business-empire-includes-china-ties/2018/07/05/9bfd1056-7956-11e8-aeee-4d04c8ac6158_story.html

The numbers come about a week after we got the first major news about companies responding to tariffs, which have also been applied to Canada, Mexico and the European Union. So far, a major American nail company, Mid-Continent Nail of Missouri, laid off 60 employees and is facing its potential demise by the end of summer. Then came the more prominent case of Harley-Davidson, the motorcycle manufacturer that said it would move more of its production overseas in the face of the EU's retaliatory tariffs. Now BMW and General Motors are warning about rising automobile prices, Volvo may cancel 4,000 expected new jobs in South Carolina, and polysilicon manufacturer REC Silicon announced it would lay off 100 people - all citing the tariffs.

How Trump's trade war with China could go sideways on him
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-trade-war-china-analysis-20180707-story.html

HEMLOCK
I Michigan har Hemlock et polysiliconanlegg som på papiret har en kapasitet på 43,000 MT.
Hemlock bygget også et anlegg i Tennessee som de måtte nedlegge pga tariff.
Hemlock har siden drevet omfattende nedbemanning. Senerees i 1Q18 fikk 100 ansatte sparken. De hadde omlag 800 fulltidsansatte og 800 kontraktører.

Hemlock produserer polysilicon som er 11N kvalitet. Markedet for Hemlock er primært semi-conductor i USA og langtidskontrakter for solar i Asia. De fleste kontrakter utløper i perioden 2018-2020 med en kontrakt med JA Solar som løper til 2026. Bernreuter regner med at Hemlock vil slite veldig når disse kontraktene utløper da kontraktsprisene ligger vesentlig over dagens markedspris og det er flere mislighold i avtalene. Hemlock gir ikke selv ut fullstendige opplysninger med man regner at Hemlock neppe produserer mer enn 25,800 MT nå og at dette er på vei nedover i takt med at markedssituasjonen er vanskelig og langtidskontrakter utløper. I verste fall vil Hemlocks marked bli begrenset til semi-conductor da selskapet ikke har evne til å konkurrere på pris innen solar. Dog vil enkelte deler av solar-industrien ha 11N men det er ikke her volumene ligger til den prisen Hemlock tilbyr.

I 2015 hadde Michigan altså 1,000 ansatte, og i 2017 omlag 800 ansatte og så nedbemanning med ytterligere 100 ansatte.
Anlegget er faktisk omtrent 58 år gammelt.

U.S. ratchets up China trade war, threatens tariffs on $200 bln of goods

WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - The Trump administration raised the stakes in its trade dispute with China on Tuesday, saying it would slap 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including numerous consumer items, sending stocks in Asia skidding.

China’s commerce ministry said it was “shocked” by the latest U.S. trade action and would complain to the World Trade Organisation, but did not immediately say how it would retaliate. It called the actions “completely unacceptable” in a statement released around midday on Wednesday.

Beijing has said it would hit back against Washington’s escalating tariff measures, including through “qualitative measures,” a threat that U.S. businesses in China fear could mean anything from stepped-up inspections to delays in investment approvals and even consumer boycotts.

U.S. officials issued a list of thousands of Chinese imports the Trump administration wants to hit with the new tariffs, including hundreds of food products as well as tobacco, chemicals, coal, steel and aluminum.

It also includes consumer goods ranging from car tires, furniture, wood products, handbags and suitcases, to dog and cat food, baseball gloves, carpets, doors, bicycles, skis, golf bags, toilet paper and beauty products.

“For over a year, the Trump administration has patiently urged China to stop its unfair practices, open its market, and engage in true market competition,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in announcing the proposed tariffs.

“Rather than address our legitimate concerns, China has begun to retaliate against U.S. products ... There is no justification for such action,” he said in a statement.

Last week, Washington imposed 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, and Beijing responded immediately with matching tariffs on the same amount of U.S. exports to China. Each side is mulling tariffs on a further $16 billion in goods that would bring the totals to $50 billion.

MARKETS RATTLED

Investors fear an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could hit global growth.

On Wednesday, the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down about 1 percent, while the main indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai recovered somewhat after falling more than 2 percent.

S&P 500 and Dow futures dropped around 1 percent, pointing to a weak opening on Wall Street later on Wednesday.

The onshore yuan tracked its offshore counterpart lower with traders closely watching the key 6.7 per dollar level as pressure mounted on the currency.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods - roughly the total amount of U.S. imports from China last year.

The new list published on Tuesday targets many more consumer goods than those covered under the tariffs imposed last week, raising the direct threat to consumers and retail firms and increasing the stakes for lawmakers in Trump’s Republican party facing elections in November.

The list is subject to a two-month public comment period before taking effect.

‘TARIFFS ARE TAXES’

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, a senior member of Trump’s Republican Party, said the announcement “appears reckless and is not a targeted approach.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has supported Trump’s domestic tax cuts and efforts to reduce regulation of businesses, but it has been critical of Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.

“Tariffs are taxes, plain and simple. Imposing taxes on another $200 billion worth of products will raise the costs of every day goods for American families, farmers, ranchers, workers, and job creators. It will also result in retaliatory tariffs, further hurting American workers,” a Chamber spokeswoman said.

The Retail Industry Leaders Association, a lobby group representing the largest U.S. retailers, said: “The president has broken his promise to bring ‘maximum pain on China, minimum pain on consumers.’”

“American families are the ones being punished. Consumers, businesses and the American jobs dependent on trade, are left in the crosshairs of an escalating global trade war,” said Hun Quach, the head of international trade policy for the group.

Louis Kuijs, Hong Kong-based Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, said while he expects China to strongly condemn the U.S. moves, its policy response is likely to be limited for now.

“In part because they have only limited ammunition and in part because it’s still early in the process on the U.S. side,” Kuijs said.

Earlier in the day, Li Chenggang, assistant minister at China’s Commerce Ministry, said that the latest U.S. proposals would hurt both countries and pointed to declines in Chinese export growth and overseas investment to the United States in the first half of this year.

“It looks like the U.S. just took the scale of the trade frictions to another level,” Li said at a forum in Beijing. “Right now, world trade is relatively chaotic. We believe the U.S. measures interfere with economic globalization and damage the world economic order.”

Trump has been following through on pledges he made during his presidential campaign to get tough on China, which he accuses of unfair trade practices including theft of intellectual property and forced technology transfer that have led to a $375 billion U.S. trade deficit with China.

China’s exports have mushroomed since it joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, making it the world’s second-largest economy and prompting widening criticism in recent ears from trading partners that it has unfairly used global trade rules to its advantage.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/u-s-ramps-up-trade-row-with-china-threatens-new-tariffs-idUSKBN1K1074

Kommer dette til å påvirke REC, eller er det tatt høyde for alt? REC har tross alt slitt med straffetoll i lang tid alt.

Dette vil ikke påvirke REC direkte. Forhåpentligvis vil Kina fatte alvoret i dette og ty til forhandlingsbordet slik at vi kan få slutt på denne handelskrigen før den får gjort noe særlig skade. De kan starte med å fjerne de "første" tollsatsene de satt, som f.eks polysilikon.

Det er nok bare et tidsspørsmål før eliten setter ned foten og sier nei, da har ikke de respektive lederne annet valg enn å ty til forsoning. Er tross alt ikke POTUS som styrer sjappa over dammen...

det er trumpern som burde trekke seg

seff blir REC påvirket mye mere enn andre sektorer

stakkars REC LOL

Ja, helvete er løs! SELG!!!