China’s ambassador talks tough on trade, says US officials ‘don’t have sufficient common sense’

Cui Tiankai, usually soft-spoken, says Trump administration ‘should give up the illusion that China will ever give in to intimidation’

https://m.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2162319/chinas-ambassador-talks-tough-trade-says-us-officials-dont-have

China risks standing alone against the United States in US President Donald Trump’s trade war, with its allies showing signs of compromise, a former American trade official has warned.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2164904/china-could-be-exposed-trade-war-us-allies-choose-compromise

Trump Clears Deck for China Trade War by Striking New Nafta

- U.S. negotiators had China in mind when reaching regional pact

- U.S. has ‘a lot of catching-up to do with China,’ Trump says

President Donald Trump looks to be preparing for a potentially protracted economic war with China by clearing the decks of disputes with America’s other trading competitors.

In just the last few weeks, he’s struck a last-minute deal with Canada and Mexico, signed a trade agreement with South Korea and convinced Japan to begin bilateral economic negotiations. The North American accord also includes provisions seemingly aimed at keeping Chinese products out of the region.

“Several months ago the U.S. had a multi-pronged attack on its trading partners,” said Dec Mullarkey, managing director for Sun Life Investment Management which oversees $47 billion in assets. “Now the U.S. can zero in on China.”

That’s good news and bad news for the global economy. On the plus side, it suggests that Trump is not an ultra-isolationist who’s opposed to all types of trade. As economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. see it, the president is holding back from launching a “war on trade” that could upend the world economy.


But he is embarking on a trade war with China that will take a bite out of both countries’ economies next year and raise the risk of a broad pullback in global business confidence, they said in a Sept. 28 research note.

“It’s too early to talk” with China, Trump said on Monday in announcing the new pact with Canada and Mexico at the White House. “Can’t talk now, because they’re not ready, because they’ve been ripping us for so many years. It doesn’t happen that quickly.”


China Focus

U.S. negotiators clearly had China in mind when they hammered out the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement that Trump labeled a disaster.

The agreement’s rules of origin, which govern how much value of a car needs to be made in the region, have been touted by the Trump administration as a tool to keep out Chinese inputs and encourage production and investment in the U.S. and North America.


“The U.S. seems focused on keeping Chinese imports from gaining real market share in the U.S.,” said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturer’s Association. “The blunt protectionist stick used by this administration may end up creating a coalition of major trading partners that will be difficult for Chinese carrots to compete with.”

The revised agreement also requires the three nations to give three-months’ notice if they start trade negotiations with a “non-market economy,” an indirect reference to China. The U.S. can terminate its pact with Mexico or Canada if either of them strikes a deal with a non-market economy.

Currency Pact

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday downplayed the importance of the provision, saying the countries could always terminate the agreement if they wanted to. That is “a possibility which exists no matter what,”’ she told reporters in Ottawa.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, also prohibits its members from seeking to boost their economic competitiveness by devaluing their currencies, something Trump has accused China of doing in the past.

By settling on a deal with America’s neighbors -- and beginning talks with allies Japan and the European Union -- Trump is strengthening his negotiating position vis-a-vis strategic competitor Beijing.

“The next step will be to bear down on China with a broader coalition,” said David Hensley, director of global economics for JPMorgan Chase in New York, noting that other countries share America’s concerns about Beijing’s alleged unfair trade practices and mercantilism.

IP Condemnation

The trade ministers of the U.S., the European Union and Japan issued a joint statement last week squarely aimed at China, pledging to “address non market-oriented policies and practices of third countries” and condemning the theft of intellectual property from multinational corporations.

“If the U.S. were to strike new deals with its major trading partners, many of which are also key trading partners of China, Beijing could feel increasingly cornered,” said Eswar Prasad, a former China expert at the International Monetary Fund who now teaches at Cornell University.


Terry Haines, head of political analysis for Evercore ISI, said in a note to clients on Monday that his base case is that the U.S. and China won’t strike an agreement until 2019 at the earliest.

“But the new Nafta deal does show China and others that the Trump administration is willing to conclude new trade deals as long as they address core U.S. concerns,” he said.

Hard Asks

That though may be difficult for Beijing to do. That’s because the Trump administration is pressing for major changes in the way China manages its economy via subsidies and government-directed industrial policy.

“The things they’re asking for are pretty much unattainable,” said Phil Levy, senior fellow on global economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former trade economist in George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Trump himself seemed to allude to the difficulties ahead in his comments to reporters on Monday.

“They do whatever they want,” he said, referring to Beijing, adding, “We have a lot of catching up to do with China.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-02/trump-clears-deck-for-china-trade-war-by-striking-new-nafta-deal

Pompeo reiser til Kina førstkommende mandag.

"BEIJING: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to China on Monday, Chinese State Television reported on Wednesday (Oct 3), citing a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, with the two countries embroiled in an escalating trade war.

The two governments will exchange views over their bilateral relationship and international and domestic issues concerning by both sides, it reported, without giving details.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/pompeo-to-visit-china-monday-10787746"

Chinese finance ministry official says 'optimistic' on trade war breakthrough

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Reuters) - A Chinese finance ministry official said on Wednesday he felt “a little bit more optimistic” on the prospect of breaking an impasse in trade negotiations with Washington, saying both sides are too economically integrated to tolerate a fallout.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tradewar/chinese-finance-ministry-official-says-optimistic-on-trade-war-breakthrough-idUSKCN1MK15Z

Trump and China’s Xi to meet in bid to end trade war tensions

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have agreed to meet next month at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires in hopes of resolving their intensifying trade conflict, according to three people briefed on the arrangement who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-and-xi-to-meet-in-bid-to-end-trade-war-tensions/2018/10/11/5f73e926-cd6a-11e8-920f-dd52e1ae4570_story.html

China said Friday it is in contact with the United States amid reports of a planned meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump next month


Foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang

"China and the U.S. maintain communication on dialogues and exchanges at all levels," Lu told reporters at a daily briefing.


Kilde:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181012/p2g/00m/0in/107000c

Det er noe jeg ikke helt forstår...
Dersom Rec taper på å produsere polysilisium. Hvordan kan da tilgang til polysilisiummarkedet i Kina løse alle problemene?
Det burde vel bare være bra at leveransen er minimal slik som situasjonen er?

Jeg minnes en kar som gikk konkurs; hans motto var "Jeg taper riktignok litt på hvert produkt, men det er volumet som drar (!)

Gjør Kina seg mindre avhengige av en løsning på handelskonflikten med USA?

Japan-China Trade Agreements Brings Both Countries Together
27 Oct, 2018

Though China has recently been in the news for its trade policies, it had agreed to a new set of trade deals from an unlikely partner in Japan on Friday October 26th, 2018. According to the Independent and Japan Times, the two nations signed 500 agreements, including a currency swap deal (where 200 billion yuan was traded for 3.4 trillion yen to allow for easier financial transactions), search and rescue operations over each others’ respective waters and future plans on working together in other economic markets. Furthermore, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the total value of the deals is worth $2.6 billion, and both nations have confirmed cooperation to help denuclearize North Korea.

http://theowp.org/japan-china-trade-agreements-brings-both-countries-together/

Trump, altså:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/u-s-said-to-plan-more-china-tariffs-if-trump-xi-meeting-fails

Ja hvem vet, Kina forstår nok at det ikke er bare dem som kan ha tollmurer.

Da blir det fortgang i samtalene. Så spørs det om Trump har for store krav, eller om også han kan møtes litt mer inn mot midten.

Nå kan det skje at Kina gjør noen tiltak i forkant av G20 møtet i slutten av november. De tenker i hvert fall på det.
Et tiltak er å fjerne straffetoll på varer fra USA, og hvis de tenker i de baner, så vil de komme med et utsagn som dette:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2170477/us-may-take-trade-table-next-trump-xi-meeting

Officials in Beijing are also now seeking US assurances that any concessions they make will be linked to the lifting of tariffs by the Trump administration, said Craig Allen, president of the US-China Business Council, who led a delegation that met senior Chinese officials earlier this month.

hm......har en følelse av at de kommer til en hvis enighet om ikke så lenge....- i så fall er det gull for REC!

SEMI Supports U.S. Return to Trade Talks with China, Issues Trade Negotiation Principles



MILPITAS, Calif. – November 7, 2018 – SEMI, the global industry association serving the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today voiced support and encouragement for trade discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and People's Republic of China President Xi Jinping – talks that are planned for Dec. 1 during the G20 Summit in Argentina in December. Representing the semiconductor industry end-to-end, from chip design through manufacturing, SEMI expressed hope for a deal and offered principles beneficial to the global microelectronics manufacturing supply chain.

Image result for semi logo
“With SEMI members being key enablers of the more than $2 trillion USD electronics manufacturing supply chain, SEMI has a clear foundational mission based on free and fair trade, open markets, and support for international laws governing IP, cybersecurity and national security,” said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. “Adhering to these principles benefits all SEMI member companies and the global ecosystem of industries and applications enabled by semiconductor manufacturing. I commend our global government leaders for returning to the negotiating table.”

Recent tariffs and trade tensions, on top of newly imposed and rumored export controls, have complicated the global electronics manufacturing supply chain, forcing many SEMI member companies to rethink their investment strategies. Over the past six months, SEMI has testified that tariffs threaten to undercut the ability of many SEMI members to sell overseas by increasing costs, stifling innovation, and curbing U.S. technological leadership.

SEMI continues to educate U.S. lawmakers, as well as governments worldwide, about the critical importance of free and fair trade, open markets, and respect and enforcement of IP for all players in the global electronics manufacturing supply chain. As part of this initiative, SEMI is providing the 10 Principles for the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in Modern Trade Agreements below to government officials and encouraging them to include these guidelines in forward-looking agreements.

These core principles outline the primary considerations for balanced trade rules that benefit SEMI members around the world, strengthen innovation and perpetuate the societal benefits of affordable microelectronics – essential components in all advanced communications, computing, transportation, healthcare and consumer electronics.

10 Principles for the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in Modern Trade Agreements

1. Affirm principles of non-discrimination.

Non-discriminatory treatment is a central tenet of the global trading system. SEMI strongly believes that any trade deal should provide that all products from a party to the deal cannot be put at a competitive disadvantage in any other party’s market. Related, any agreement must be fully compliant with the World Trade Organization’s rules.

2. Maintain strong respect for intellectual property and trade secrets through robust safeguards and significant penalties for violators.

Protection for intellectual property are essential for the semiconductor industry. These standards enable the ability to innovate and grow. SEMI supports robust copyright standards, strong patent protections, and regulations that safeguard industrial design. SEMI also strongly supports rules that preserve trade secrets protection, including establishing criminal procedures and penalties for theft, including by means of cyber theft.

3. Remove tariffs and end technical barriers on semiconductor products.

Parties should eliminate tariffs and technical barriers on semiconductors and all technology products, that rely on electronic chips. Removing tariffs and technical barriers is crucial for businesses, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, in penetrating new markets. Related, any trade deal should open markets for services providers, ensuring that all face fair and transparent treatment.

4. Simplify and harmonize the customs and trade facilitation processes.

The trade deals should include strong commitments on customs procedures and trade facilitation to ensure that border processing will be quick, transparent, and predictable. The parties should also work to use electronic customs forms to expediate customs processing.

5. Combat any attempts of forced technology transfer.

All trade deals should have clear and firm rules that prohibit countries from requiring companies to transfer their technology, intellectual property, or other proprietary information to persons in their respective territories.

6. Enable the free flow of cross-border data.

In today’s global economy, all industries, including the semiconductor industry, rely on the free flow of data. Countries should refrain from putting in place unjustifiable regulations that limit the free flow of information, which simply serve to curb innovation and impact growth. SEMI supports provisions that enable the movement of data, subject to reasonable safeguards for privacy and other protections.

7. Eliminate forced data localization measures.

Many countries have created laws that require physical infrastructure and data centers in every country they seek to serve, which adds unnecessary costs and burdens. Forward-looking policies should eliminate the use of forced data localization measures.

8. Harmonize global standards to achieve “one standard, one test, accepted everywhere.”

Businesses should not have to face different standards for each market they serve. Global standards, driven by industry, should be market-oriented, and there should be strong commitments on transparency, stakeholder participation and coordination.

9. Create transparent rules for state-owned and -supported enterprises to ensure fair and non-discriminatory treatment.

SEMI supports a trade deal that contains robust commitments to ensure that state-owned and -supported enterprises compete based on performance, quality and price, as opposed to discriminatory regulation, opaque subsidies, favoritism, or other tools that artificially benefit state-backed businesses.

10. Establish protections for companies and individuals that respect privacy while also balancing security.

Any trade deal should have firm consumer protections, including privacy, that enables ease of use, but also does not forgo security. SEMI support efforts to use encryption products in support of this venture and also believes that parties should work to advance efforts on cybersecurity through self-assessment, declaration of conformity, increased cooperation and information sharing, all of which will help prevent cyber-attacks and stop the diffusion of malware.

Interessant det som skjer i kulissene, at det arbeides på et utkast/forhandlingsgrunnlag til en avtale.

Så bestemmer man seg plutselig for å møtes på diplomatisk nivå.
Som kringkastes for åpen scene. Og det er Trump sitt propaganda-trekk, og da har han noe i ermet, for å vise borgerne i USA at han virkelig skal få en god avtale med Kina.

Tror dette kommer til å bli veldig interessant med tanke på om en avtale er innen rekkevidde eller ikke.

US og Kina møtes i dag https://www.channelstv.com/2018/11/09/us-china-meet-over-trade-war/?utm_source=TW&utm_medium=ChannelsTV-+AutoPoster&utm_campaign=SNAP%2Bfrom%2BChannels+Television

Hvem tør stå ute over helga hvis det kommer noen positive pip herfra?

Ny REC mandag?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/white-house-trade-advisor-navarro-says-china-trade-deal-will-be-on-trumps-terms-not-wall-streets.html

Klareste tegnet på at det blir en deal er at Trump nå går ut å skal ha all æren.

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/trump-hints-at-deal-with-china-to-end-trade-war

https://www.google.no/amp/www.atimes.com/article/trump-all-but-announces-trade-deal-with-china/amp/


We're going to try and make a deal with China because I want to have great relationships with President Xi (Jinping), as I do, and with China,"

There have been no reports of China abandoning Made in China 2025. But some recent reports have said Beijing may be willing to water it down in exchange for a trade deal.

"I don't want them to go down," President Trump said. "We'll have a good meeting and we're going to see what we can do."

Det kan se ut som man har banet vei for en avtale 20. november:

«In a statement on Saturday, China's Foreign Ministry described the talks as "frank, constructive and very fruitful."»

...

«While Pompeo spoke little about trade in his public comments, Yang said he hoped the two sides would find a mutually acceptable solution on the issue "before long."»

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1NE2C4-OCATP

Så får vi ta samtalen om etnisk rensing en annen gang...

The Chinese side has kept the channel of dialogue open. The door to negotiation remains open, and let’s not forget how our two sides have successfully navigated through previous rough patches in our economic and trade relations. I hope that our economic teams will follow through on what the president agreed upon in their November the 1st phone call, carry out equal-footed and good faith dialogue and communication, and before long find a mutually acceptable solution.

https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/11/287279.htm

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/china-shanghai-expo-increase-imports-trade-war-united-states-10911932

REC kan bli årets nyttårsrakett hvis det blir en avtale den 29 nov er det vel.

Jeg vedder ihvertfall mine penger på at det skal skje !

Bør bli forventningsrally

Kommer sikkert drypp med nyheter om utkast til en avtale før den tid.

La merke til at de kinesiske delegatene trakk frem den mye omtalte telefonsamtalen, og tydeligvis retningslinjer fra deres president ut fra det som ble sagt i samtalen.
Som Trump har sagt at etter samtalen så er de nå på vei mot en avtale.
Men så er det bare at man klarer å unngå alle skjær i sjøen på vei dit.

Ikke bare jeg som la merke til det :

The remarks at the press conference signaled that a mutually acceptable trade deal is indeed in the works, as President Trump had also hinted earlier in the week following his phone call to Xi. It appears that the summit in Argentina may witness some major announcement.

https://indianpunchline.com/us-china-tiptoeing-toward-trade-deal/

Og siden Trump-Xi samtalen 1.november har Trump og republikanerne gjort et godt mellomvalg. Trump er sannsynlig president også i neste periode. Kineserne er interessert i gjøre avtaler jo før jo heller. Og klart det skal feies for døren når 40 års med diplomatiske forbindelser Kina-USA snart skal feires.

Fine funn dere har funnet. Kommer trolig til enighet om noen uker. Innen neste uke må kinesiske selskaper klage inn REC for at tariffen skal fortsette. Når klimaet mellom kina og USA er slik det er nå er det da noen som tror Kina bestemmer sg for det, en toll som i utgangspunktet er urettferdig og ikke tjener noen.

Inord du som har fulgt denne tollen tett. Hvor mange prosent sansynlighet ville anser du at tollen forsvinner?

Jeg anser det som enda mer sannsynlig at det over natta kan fjernes et forbud mot prosessing trade
Det ble brukt tidligere for å unngå straffetoll, dvs selge fritt til aktører som produserte for eksport ut av Kina.
Kineserne har tidligere tilbudt dette hvis USA under Obama lettet på straffetollen på solcellepanel.
Straks det blir enighet om å lette litt på trykket, er det 80-100 % sannsynlighet for at slike forbud fjernes over natta.
Og hvis USA fjerner sin straffetoll, som også har forfallsdato nå, da fjerner kineserne sin straffetoll på poly.

Så får vi håpe REC benytter tiden frem mot opphevelsen til å forhandle med potensielle kunder, så det bare er tut og kjør straks straffetollen løftes.

Artikkelen fra e24 som forårsaket sist ukes fall er skrevet av en student og freelance journalist. Utrolig at artikkelen skulle ødelegge så store verdier.

*Inord, 17:12 - "Jeg anser det som enda mer sannsynlig at det over natta kan fjernes et forbud mot prosessing trade".

-Det kan du kanskje ha rett i.

Men det er en noe mer fordyrende prosess enn å handle som "normalt". Og prisene er så skrale for tiden at selv
uten 57, så blir det ikke noen umiddelbar fest for REC i Kina. Prisene må opp på nyåret, eller enda bedre - STRAX.

At aksjekursen ville reagert positivt, er en annen type hyggelig historie..

I det opprinnelige Joint venture med Tianrec var det også avtalt et salgs JV, tro om det er aktuelt ennå?
Og er FBR fra Moses Lake aktuell vare (kvalitet) å selge sammen med FBR fra Tianrec?

Inord, 21:49..

-Nei, det tror jeg ikke er aktuelt.

Det var basert på et fullverdig partnerskap, og full tilgang til det kinesiske markedet.
Om REC slipper 57, så har de fortsatt bare 15 av JV. Og det var kostnader
med å opprette og drifte et felles sales office også.
Så jeg mener ganske sikkert at det ikke blir noe av. ..var meningen ML skulle benytte
dette også, ja - hvis jeg husker korrekt

Hvis ikke rec ikke er liv laga, er det da håp for solenergi?

Hvis rec er teknologisk ledende, har det beste produktet, men ikke kan overleve,hva da?
Randers, presterer du ikke bedre, la være å skrive mer.

Salgs-JV ble tidlig avskrevet. Likevel virker det som om REC skal bistå Tianrec i salget av Silane.

"The silane gas products use the agent model to carry out sales work. The REC Shanghai office, as a partner of our company, uses mature market sales channels and operational experience to help us enter the downstream application market more smoothly."

Likeså Kawas ?

Jeg har dessuten lest mange innlegg her gjennom året, men forundres hver bidige gang at man ikke vurderer den mest forekommende markedsmekanisme innen business: Det kalles "reforhandling" av lånebetingelser *

Det finnes ingen RECkreditor i denne verden som finner det fornuftig å skulle slå REC konkurs, innenfor et par års tid.

Konkurs gir total nedside, for enhver aktør.

Men oppsiden for REC i løpet av 2-4 år er enorm. Argumentene kjenner alle her (som har minimumsinnsikt).

Det finnes derfor ingen kreditor med vett i behold som ikke finner det opportunt å gi REC minst 5 års sjanse. Hva i all verden skulle de tape på det, bortsett fra en tidlig konkurs framfor en senere konkurs?

I 2023 vil vi muligens se kurs godt over 5 kroner som en aller første start på sol-oppgang som først og fremst kommer REC til gode.