300% oppside innenfor relativt "kort tid"

FREIDLAND
PTAL 18.11.2019 kl 19:50 811

Kjent olje analytiker skriver om Petrotal her :)

PetroTal Corp- A growth play par excellence

I have written about PetroTal a number of times, notably on 4th July after I had met the management again and I have been lucky enough to have met them again several times recently. The company is developing assets in Peru, it has a very strong and experienced management team recently bolstered by the appointment of Douglas Urch as CFO, from the Chairman role and of course first rate CEO Manolo Zúñiga.

The company’s primary, at least for the time being, asset is the Bretaña field (100%) with 16.9m of 1P reserves, 37.5m of 2P reserves and 75.8m of 3P reserves. The company also owns 100% of block 107 in the Ucayali Basin on trend with other large fields and four leads that, combined with Osheki prospect, have an unrisked high estimate of prospective resources of 4.6 billion barrels of oil. There is a farm-out process planned here as the numbers are so substantial with management confident of a partner for the project.

Recent growth has been spectacular with promised production increases keeping up with market expectations. Currently production is between 7,500-8,000 b/d as each well delivers better than expected results and is expected to be 10/- b/d by the year end if not somewhat more. Indeed, the company has one of the five oil wells shut in and could produce more, something they will surely do with more successful drilling and an increase in processing capacity. Indeed the production facilities due to be installed next month may even give the company up to 12/- b/d with a following wind.

A combination of careful management of cash flow, for example the phased approach of facilities coming onstream, is also seen in the drilling of the wells which are all drilled from one site and the same platform. Here there may be 20 oil producers and 6 water disposal wells, water is not a problem here as it is treated as a natural waterflood’ and from now I suspect all wells will be horizontal with electro submersible pumps. The wells drilled so far, as well as those due in the future, it is becoming more obvious showing that the structure of the reservoir is defined and management feels comfortable with Netherland Sewell’s 2P OOIP estimate of 330 m barrels, and at current prices an operating netback of around $40.

Longer term the story gets better, the production target for end 2020 is 15-20,000 b/d and with the CPF-2 to be installed in ‘late 2020’ provided the wells deliver the goods production should double again next year. Another thing that I’m not sure the market gives the company credit for is the increase in recovery factors, given 12% by Netherland Sewell the well data coming in so far indicates is moving towards 24%, no wonder CEO Manolo said recently that ‘this will be a cash machine for years to come’.

With distribution channels not a problem to PetroTal, they detail 7 export routes in their presentation, optionality is excellent and come the completion of the Talara refinery in 2020 that gives a 20/- b/d capacity to aim for. Operationally it is obvious that PetroTal is in very good shape as it is financially.

The company has a strong balance sheet and no debt after this year’s raise and a dividend is forecast along with a growing band of E&P companies. As for valuation this has been steeply rising as wells come in better than expected and forecasts delivered, another well scheduled for December may also beat the whisper. Assuming all goes according to plan this gives me a NAV of 40p of which hardly anything is high risk upside, more likely can be regarded as a very fair medium term target price. Adding in the 2P and the 3P gives me a graded 40p between them giving me a fair upside of some 80p per share.






https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/11/oil-price-jadestone-touchstone-petrotal-and-finally/
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 00:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
FREIDLAND
26.11.2019 kl 13:32 678

Da er oljeanalytikeren ute igjen med oppdatering rundt Petrotal.

"I remain full of confidence on PTAL and am now properly confident in my L/T target of 80p per share"

Det er 250% opp fra dagens kurs, og deres block 107 er ikke med i kurs target.

"PetroTal Corp
5H well update and guidance increased from PetroTal this morning where all seems to be going very much according to plan. The 5H well on the Bretaña field in Peru is progressing to budget and timeline with 700m of the planned 870m horizontal section drilled. Completion etc is expected to include tie-in and initial production tests by c. 15th December.

Much better news is that the company expects commissioning of CPF-1 in the week of 22nd December increasing nominal to 10,000 bopd. However, based on recent experience management expects that CPF-1 will be able to handle in the order of 15,000 bopd. Given that the 4H well has produced 200,000 barrels of oil in just 35 days the year end guidance has been upped from 10,000 bopd to 11-13,000 bopd. 2020 target production must also go up in due course…

This is exceptional news from PTAL, exceeding already high targets is good and with the 5H well looking good the short and medium term outlook is more than promising. I remain full of confidence on PTAL and am now properly confident in my L/T target of 80p per share."

https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/11/petrotal-corp/