Den er stor ja, men det er bare å trykke på omvendt knappen så er du på de siste postene. Går kjapt det da.

Uansett greit å lage en ny tråd også.

Trykk på tallet i parantes under "svar". Da kommer du rett inn på siste innlegg.

Lånt fra Avanca tråd. Bliver en fin jul!!


'Virtually no' VLGCs available as rates stay strong

Analysts continue to talk up prospects for large gas carriers as free tonnage dries up
Prospects remain bright for VLGCs into 2021 as free tonnage dries up.

Norwegian investment bank Fearnley Securities said the market has continued on a "strong note" since hitting five-year highs last week.
Analysts Espen Landmark Fjermestad, Peder Nicolai Jarlsby and Ulrik Mannhart see limited headwinds in the near-term.
"The market remains extremely tight in both basins as there is simply not enough tonnage to cater for demand," they said.

There are still a few vessels available for December dates in the Middle East Gulf, but Fearnley expects attention to quickly turn towards January, with no tonnage overhang.

Rates have continued to tick upwards, with the latest Baltic Exchange assessment coming in at $91.36 per tonne on Wednesday, or $82,300 per day.
Charterers assess their options
"Following the hectic last week, the market has levelled off as charterers have taken a step back to assess options," the analysts said.
"However, there are virtually no available vessels for the relevant fixing window which has left transpacific runs at a premium to western rates."

Western numbers are estimated at $86,000 per day.
Compatriot investment bank Cleaves Securities said a lack of available tonnage and strong fixing activity in the west saw earnings rally to $81,000 per day on 27 November, a 50% jump on the prior week and 58% on the prior month.

"Canal delays are still supportive, but relets could emerge with the US/Asia LPG arbitrage now close to spot rates," the company added.
Cleaves puts vessel earnings 3.5 times above cash break-even levels.

Exports stay solid
"The very strong VLGC spot market reflects solid export volumes, but also significant fleet inefficiencies. Cargoes ex-US are now working towards mid-January laycans due to the lack of available prompt vessels, impacted by turnaround delays at discharge ports and transit delays at the Panama Canal," analysts Joakim Hannisdahl and Peter Michael Christensen said.

Satellite data shows eight VLGCs were awaiting Panama Canal transit at the start of this week, with an average waiting time of 2.8 days, according to Cleaves.
This is down from the 3.8 days average in October, but up from the 1.7 days average between May and August.

"With some vessels now using up to nine days to transit the canal (normally around two days), many opt for the 12-days-longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope. This is further adding to the fleet inefficiencies, tying up an estimated 7% of the global VLGC fleet’s capacity," the Cleaves analysts said.

Ballast speed picking up
One offsetting factor is an increase in VLGC ballast speed as owners hurry to the next deal.
Speed averaged 15.1 knots in November, versus 14.3kn in June, the investment bank calculated.
This rise represents a 2.5% increase in fleet capacity.

Ballast speed has averaged 2% higher than laden speed in November, reflecting the strong earnings environment, Cleaves said.
"It is challenging to say how long these fleet inefficiencies will last, with the Panama Canal delays said to be caused by high traffic, seasonal fog and Covid-19 related issues," the analysts added.

"We expect that the delays will abate in the first quarter of 2021.

The VLGC market remains extremely tight, with the Middle East market now at a premium to the US Gulf–and a 15-month TC now said to have been completed at USD 45,000/day – well above what we have seen over the past few weeks (35,000/day). The spot index has remained above USD 80,000/day, with at least six fixtures completed this week – with BW LPG for example fixing a ship for loading in the US Gulf on the 19th of January – at USD 140/ton for USG – Asia (just below 80k/day)

15 måneders TC på 45k USD/dagen..
Det er knallsterkt, og meget lovende for det kommende året!

Og man skal ikke klage på den spot turen BW har satt i januar

Dorian LPG opp 6,57% på Nyse i går 4. desember 2020.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html

Med disse ratene tipper jeg vi skal godt opp på sekstitallet denne uken som kommer, 70 kr innen børslutt 18. desember. Båt nummer 2 ferdig retrofitted i Q4, store besparelser på drivstoff.

Siden du startet denne gjetteleken om kursmål. Så skal jeg ikke ta den fra deg.

Kan du ikke starte en tråd til med kun kursmål, men til og med børslutt 23/12 eller absolutt siste børsdag i 2020. Istedet for 18/12...(Hvorfor valgte du 18/12?)

Letter å finne vinnern istedet for den lange tråden her.

Hvor store blir de besparelsene på LPG drivstoff? Leste en på forumet som skrev 6000 dollar/day. Syntes det hørtes veldig mye ut. Er det andre som kan bekrefte dette?

Tycker också att 6000 US$/dag i besparning låter mycket. Men på många ställen kan jag läsa att LPG är 11% effektivare än vanlig bunker. Om de då räknat med energitäthet, hanteringskostnader för bunkerolja med uppvärmning/separatorhantering och avgifter och tidsåtgång för sludgehantering vet jag inte. Jag vet inte heller om de räknat med tidsförtjänsten med att slippa extra bunkertid och eventuella lägre kostnader i hamnar för mindre utsläpp? Underhållet och slitaget lär också minska med ett renare drivmedel. De slipper också installation av scrubber och dess kostnader.

Bara bunkerkostnaden/dag utan kringkostnader för VLGC för bunkerolja ligger kring 17.500 US$ vid eco speed. Den blir inte 6.000 US$ lägre/dag, besparingarna ligger i punkterna i ovan.

BWLPG skriver om det på side 18-20 i presentasjonen fra Q1-2020

https://www.bwlpg.com/docs/default-source/financial-reports/bw-lpg-q1-2020-financial-results-presentation.pdf?sfvrsn=5bf537de_2

LPG: VLGC rates continue to tick upwards with the latest Baltic assessment now at USD 94.43/mt, or c. USD 86k/d for non-scrubber fitted vessels. Vessels with scrubbers are presently making just south of USD 90k/d. December to date has averaged USD 83.6k/d and stacks against earnings in the record years of 2014/15 of c. USD 58k/d in the same month. The factors driving this is first and foremost fleet inefficiencies with Panama congestion, drydocks and discharge delays. However, product margins also continue to improve with product differentials (US spot vs 1m fwd Far East prices) now at USD 199/mt, the widest level seen since early January this year. Although we continue to expect a weakening oil parity (Asian propane to price in parity with brent), the effect is still there and a rising crude price is having positive ripple effects on product pricing. At the same time it will (over time) have positive effects on the supply side (product) of the equation.

We continue to like the VLGC names on the long side, seeing improving fundamentals and continued fleet inefficiencies aiding the market in 2021. 2022 is still very much a black box in terms of US production but given the recent rally in crude and seemingly resilient production (propane production dropping substantially less than crude) it is certainly boding well for a potential strong 2022 as well.

Dagens rater ..87 321 $

Baltic #LPG #shipping index +5% to $99/t (TCE $91k/d)

#VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html

LPG: VLGC rates pushing towards USD 100k/d

Fearnley
LPG: VLGC rates continue its meteoric rise with the Baltic Index gaining 5% yesterday

We also don’t overrule BW LPG coming up with an XO dividend on top of the standard 50% of EPS dividend and 9 cents “catch up” dividend.

Big jump in VLGC rates – BUY AVANCE BWLPG
VLGC rates increased by another $4,600/d yesterday to $90k/d (vs cash breakeven of $20-25k/d for listed companies). The market will remain firm for the foreseeable future and the outlook for 2021 has improved (our brokers recently increased 2021E VLGC rates by 50% to $45k/d average). Analyst consensus is due for a significant upgrade. For Q4, we see potential for 37c EPS vs 27c consensus in BWLPG, with dividend of 27c vs 19c cons. For AVANCE, we see potential for 30c EPS vs 18c cons, with DPS of 15c vs 8c cons. However, the real fun quarter will be 1Q20. Here we see potential for 41c and 23c dividend for BW and AVANCE, respectively, more than twice as much as analyst consensus. There is 35-40% upside to 1Q share price levels on a much better market outlook.

Dorian LPG opp 1,13% på Nyse i går 8. desember 2020.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html

https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/nALQyL/analytiker-oeyner-tapersektor-i-shipping-neste-aar-ser-ingen-grunn-til-aa-kjoepe

For de som evt kun leste overskriften i Urix sin siste link:

– Veldig, veldig sterkt
Det er feststemning i gassfrakt for øyeblikket, spesielt innenfor LPG, som er frakt av flytende petroleumsgass. Her er dagsratene, altså inntjeningen til skipene på frakten per dag, nå på rundt sitt høyeste nivå på fem år.

I sommer var det så vidt penger å hente hjem for rederiene.

– LPG er nok den største positive overraskelsen og det ser spennende ut. Markedet er veldig, veldig sterkt og mye bedre enn hva jeg trodde det ville være, sier Karlsen.

Han mener utviklingen fremover avhenger av LPG-produksjonen i USA, som han synes «virker å holde seg overraskende bra».

– Når oljeprisen kollapset ble det ganske raskt kutt i amerikansk oljeproduksjon, men LPG-produksjonen har vist seg å være standhaftig. Det har blitt bygget en god infrastruktur rundt eksporten og da blir det enklere for amerikanske produsenter. Samtidig har etterspørselen etter LPG vært sterk, så det ser spennende ut også inn i neste år.

Av LPG-aksjene anbefaler Karlsen å gå inn i 2021 med BW LPG og Avance Gas.

The VLGC market remains red hot, with January-bookings now made at levels closer to USD 100,000/day. We raise our 2021 estimates again and remain far above consensus with an average (and still conservative) spot assumption of USD 40,000/day next year. 2021 will consequently be the third consecutive year of strong cashflow for the VLGC-names – which remain undervalued. Seeing strong Asian demand from petchem next year and OPEC-volumes gradually returning we find the current market environment healthy. We raise our target prices and reiterate BUY recommendations across the board

PAS øker TP til 71 i BW LPG

BWLPG/AGAS: PARETO SECURITIES OPPJUSTERER KURSMÅL PÅ LPG-AKSJER

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Pareto Securities oppjusterer kursmålet på BW LPG og Avance Gas til henholdsvis 71 og 50 kroner fra tidligere 66 og 45, ifølge en rapport fra meglerhuset onsdag.

Pareto trekker frem det de omtaler som et brennhett VLGC-marked, med januar-bookinger på nivåer rundt 100.000 dollar dagen, og trekker frem ideelle markedsforhold med økende asiatisk etterspørsel og fortsatt ineffektivitet i flåten.

Meglerhuset oppjusterer deres gjennomsnittlige spotestimater til 40.000 dollar pr dag for 2021 og peker på at året vil bli det tredje på rad med sterk kontantstrøm til aktører innen VLGC-segmentet.

Martin Brennmoen martin.brennmoen@tdndirekt.com

Infront TDN Direkt

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/aksjeanalyse/2020/12/10/7596793/dnb-markets-hever-kursmalet-pa-bw-lpg
Kursmål 83 fra dnb!!!

Jeg spår BWLPG i tresifret før Q4-rapportering.

LPG: VLGC rates hit USD 100k/d yesterday, the first time since the record year of 2015.

Det er Danske Bank som hever kursmålet, ikke DnB. Jeg er selv kunde hos DnB og er i år helt oppgitt over analysene deres. DnB har siden 9.nov kursmål 43. Enda verre: De beregner rater for 2021 til 18400 for 2021 og 8600 for 2022. Jeg har skrevet til dem og påpekt at forutsetningene deres for kursanslag virker helt ute av synk. Håper det kommer en ny analyse snart hvor de har tatt endringene i markedet inn over seg. Såvidt jeg vet er de nå lavest av de kjente meglerhusene. Pinlig fra en av de største shipping-bankene.

LPG-aksjer kjøper man i Oktober og selger i Mars. Enkelt og greit. Kjøper aldri i des/jan.
Eier selv nå (som jeg gjør hvert år på denne tiden), men selger før påske :)
Glad på alle som kjøpte i høst sine vegne!

Dorian opp 5 % på en svakt rød USA-børs

Dorian LPG opp 4,89% på Nyse i går 10.. desember 2020.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html

Det var måske rigtigt de forgående år, men denne gang ser vi de højeste rater på over 5 år og hele 2021 ser ut til at blive et af de bedste år nogensinde, med den udbyttepolitik som Bw fører er der stadigvæk heldig mye at gå på for denne, det ville ikke undre mig om vi ser 80 til 90 kroner i Januar med dertil store udbytte 3 til 4 kroner for Q4.

Enig med Habub.
Situasjonen er helt forskjellig nå, få tilgjenglige skip, mange dockinger ila året, forsinkelser i Panama-kanalen, økende etterspørsel fra Asia, økende oljepris og mye LPG i USA, kan det bli bedre??? Om disse ratene holder seg ut Q1, da tror jeg vi kan se tresiffrede kurser i BWLPG i mars 2021. + store utbytter i mars, juni og september!!!
Spennende å se hva sluttkursen blir i dag.
God helg!!!

Tenker det samme. Tror egentlig vi ikke skulle så langt ned med ratene som skjedde i år. Det var kun corona opplegget som dro den ned. 2020 skulle bli et kjempe år. Ser ut til å ende bra til slutt, og det drar på seg ut i 2021. Tror ikke det blir noe rater under B/e i 2021.

God HeLPG

VLGC: Strong market momentum still – heading into February loadings in US Gulf
 VLGC names remain our favourites, with spot rates now surging past USD
100,000/day. We count at least six fixtures concluded up until yesterday this week, so
some concerns that “no ships are fixed at these levels” are in our view uncalled for
 More action should be seen next week, with both Aramco and Adnoc releasing
cargoes for January loading. USGoM exporters are now reportedly facing USD 170/ton
on their Asia-cargoes, which on our numbers still make sense (but only barely). In any
case, more backlog at USD 100,000/day is being built (we are heading into Februaryloading now), and even though we stress that there are utilization inefficiencies etc –
our Q1 number of USD 52,500/day is starting to look slow.


Fra Pareto

Dagens rater ..100 958 $