FRO: Fra Q3 til IMO2020 - og veien videre ?


Q3 var svakt, men det som nå er interessant er de mange prosessene som iverksettes på grunn av IMO2020, kombinert med amerikansk skiferproduksjon og embargoen mot Iran og Venezuela.

I forbindelse med gårsdagens kvartalsrapportering så ble det kommunisert at 1/3 av Frontlines 71 skip har fått installert scrubbere – og at omtrent 50% av skipene vil ha installert scrubbere innen april/mai. Dette betyr at omtrent 11-12 skip (på ulike tidspunkt) vil være ute av markedet i perioden februar/mars til april/mai.

Rederiet kommuniserte at de har en god plan for installeringen gjennom sitt 20% eierskap i Feen Marine Scrubbers (FMSI) - og at installeringen av de nevnte skipene vil starte i andre halvdel av Q1.

Siterer fra presentasjonen:

• “We believe that tanker market fundamentals look encouraging and we have entered a period of substantially stronger vessel earnings. Our strategy has focused on increasing our spot exposure throughout the year and we believe this will be reflected in our results for the fourth quarter.

• During the third quarter, fleet capacity started to show signs of becoming constrained, and rates slowly began to improve. There were obvious factors that contributed to this strength, most notably a continued geographical dislocation between oil supply and refiners, leading to higher tonne-miles. A record number of vessels were out of service during the third quarter due to periodic dry docking or scrubber installation, and this is expected to continue into 2020.

• «The surge in tanker rates at the beginning of the fourth quarter reminded the market of the relationship between vessel supply and freight rates”.

• ….. “the improved tanker market conditions occurred as 61 newbuilding VLCCs were added to the global fleet thus far in 2019. An additional eight VLCCs are scheduled to be delivered this year, with 41 more to follow in 2020 before the orderbook declines to the lowest levels in over 20 years. The removal of the newbuilding delivery overhang, which has put pressure on the tanker market over the last several years, is a significant development, although a surge in new orders can of course quickly change this. The VLCC and Suezmax orderbooks are now significantly below the number of vessels aged 17.5 years and above”.

• «Frontline has one of the largest and most modern fleets in the industry with an average age below four years. We believe we are well positioned for the implementation of the IMO 2020 regulations, for which we started preparation in 2017. Presently, one-third of Frontline's fleet has exhaust gas cleaning systems ("scrubbers") fitted, and half of our fleet will have scrubbers by the second quarter of 2020. We always remain focused on maintaining cost-efficient operations and low breakeven levels, which provide significant earnings potential in a strong market environment».


Redigert 14.01.2020 kl 09:25 Du må logge inn for å svare

Mindre eksport fra Saudi medfører forhåpentligvis økt eksport fra US, med mindre oljeprisen blir så lav at skiferoljeproduksjonen skaleres ned, eller?
03.12.2019 kl 13:38 2969

Noen som har fått med seg dato for Q3 utbytte

Key information relating to the dividend to be paid by Frontline Ltd. for the third quarter 2019: Dividend amount: $0.10 Declared currency: USD Last day including right: 9 December, 2019 Ex-date: 10 December, 2019 Record date: 11 December, 2019 Payment date: On or about 20 December, 2019 Date of approval: 26 November, 2019 This information is published in accordance with the requirements of the Continuing Obligations.
Matmons
03.12.2019 kl 15:34 2828

Takk takk
Rundt 10. Mars bør vi få et skikkelig utbytte
Må bli 4 kr eller deromkring
Håper selvsagt på mer he he he
Redigert 03.12.2019 kl 15:35 Du må logge inn for å svare
03.12.2019 kl 16:34 2758

Skal de nå 6 USD i utbytte neste år så bør de vel starte med 2 USD for Q4. Da er vi godt over 10 kr
Matmons
03.12.2019 kl 17:27 2669

6$ er Platou som skriver, men slik jeg tolker dette er det over en 2 års periode.
Mener de 6$ pr år så er det jo mye høyere enn noen andre tidligere har annonsert at de tror
Her er den artikkelen, den kan være litt tvetydig og gi rom for at det du skriver stemmer . Det hadde vert konge for da hadde aksjene vert betalt med utbytte på 3,5 år

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/bors/2019/12/03/7479083/clarksons-platou-securities-ser-oppside-i-tankmarkedet-og-anbefaler-frontline-aksjen

Denne podcasten fra Pareto gir en god fremstilling av driverne i tankmarkedet de neste årene. Mye som tyder på at denne syklusen blir lengre enn hva vi har sett tidligere.

https://www.paretosec.no/pareto-tv?itemId=Aktuelt%3A974&fbclid=IwAR3qhMClwjixKYADd0UYFoHdJuC0s-58lA578U4sYOu85yABn90ugsvtrPw
tak123
14.01.2020 kl 09:55 2040

Gå til hovedinnhold

Lukk
TANK: 13 VLCC-SLUTNINGER MANDAG, RATE AG-SINGAPORE -4,4%












Frontline Ltd.

12.74 USD
12,74 USD
0 %
0,00%

14.1.2020, 06:23·
TDN Finans Delayed
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om 13 VLCC-slutninger mandag.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Fearnleys.
Fraktraten fra Midtøsten til Singapore lå på om lag 110 worldscalepoeng mandag, tilsvarende en nedgang på omtrent 4,4 prosent fra foregående handelsdag, ifølge data fra Infront.
Det ble sluttet fire reiser fra AG, der to går til India, en går til Kina og en går til Vietnam.
Videre ble det sluttet tre reiser fra Vest-Afrika, der to går til Østen og en går til Kina. Det ble også sluttet en reise fra Mexico til Østen.
Ellers ble det sluttet fem reiser der detaljene ikke er kjent for markedet.
==============================================================
Størrelse Strekning WS-rate TCE($)
280 AG/USG 60 32.000
270 AG/Korea 105 78.300
260 V-Afr/Kina 105 78.500
==============================================================
Bunkerspris ($/MT 380 CST) VLSFO
==============================================================
Fujairah - 323 740
Singapore - 386 703
Rotterdam - 304 560
==============================================================
Slutningstelling AG:
==============================================================
Jan'19 - 128
Des'19 - 136
Nov'19 - 147
==============================================================
LK finans@tdn.no Infront TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Flipper
14.01.2020 kl 11:52 1865

US news paper quotes Tradewinds

VLCC scrubber payback time

cut to five months as rates boom

Older vessels reaping the most benefit from big spreads

between high and low-sulphur bunkers


13 January 2020 9:47 GMT UPDATED 14 January 2020 8:17 GMT
By Gary Dixon in London


Strong rates have cut the payback time for scrubber installation to just 156 days for some VLCCs, an

analyst has calculated.

Cleaves Securities said a 2010-built non-eco tanker can expect to make back the $3.2m cost of

retrofitting over five months as earnings for these ships outstrip their more modern sisters without

exhaust gas cleaners by $11,000 per day thanks to the cheaper high-sulphur fuels they can still burn

post-IMO 2020.

Head of research Joakim Hannisdahl puts rates for eco-ships that do have scrubbers fitted at

$117,000 per day. Non-scrubber sisters are banking $101,000 per day.

A similar 2010-built capesize will earn back its retrofitting costs in 269 days. Previous industry

assumptions had foreseen scrubbers making their costs back over anything from less than a year

to up to two years.

More retrofitting coming?

"As earnings seasonally retract during the first half of 2020, owners might be highly incentivised

to retrofit scrubbers," Hannisdahl said.

"As we enter the post-IMO 2020 era, all shipping stakeholders must cope with a myriad of new

variables relating to vessel earnings."

The price differential between low and high sulphur bunkers is differing widely from port to

port, with Fujairah quoting a $458 per tonne spread, while Rotterdam is at $278.

"Thus the variations in realised earnings for comparable vessels could vary even more going

forward based on geographic positioning," he said.

Fearnley Securities quotes the average spread widening to between $300 and $350 last week,

implying a scrubber saving of about $20,000 per day for VLCCs.

"Overall, we estimate a $50,000 per day time-charter equivalent (TCE) difference between ‘old’

and ‘new’," the firm said, referring to the difference between eco-ship with a scrubber and a

15-year-old vessel burning compliant fuel.

The company has lifted its forecast of the premium for a scrubber/eco-ship to $10,000 per day

across 2020. About 150 VLCCs are now fitted with scrubbers.

Investors can expect big payouts

"We expect significant cash distributions to investors in 2020 (19% on average), but are also

becoming increasingly optimistic on 2021 due to a complete halt in newbuilding activity,

" Fearnley Securities said.

Its analysts see about 60% fewer deliveries this year than in 2019.

The company is forecasting average VLCC rates of $75,000 per day in the first quarter,

"given the strong rate levels seen since mid-December."

Cleaves said an ample tonnage list of VLCCs in the Middle East Gulf pushed spot rates

down last week.

"The positive is a tight tonnage list in the Altantic, thus average earnings are close to unc

hanged week-on-week," it added.

It is preparing to increase its asset prices as a result of continued strong earnings.

https://medium.com/@calvinfroedge/changing-oil-landscape-could-be-a-boon-for-crude-carriers-and-complex-refiners-73f68653ab2b

MER på Linken over
Redigert 14.01.2020 kl 12:09 Du må logge inn for å svare

Er det noen steder en kan lese slutninger for de enkelte båtene, utenom hva Hannisdahl legger ut på tweeter?

På forhånd takk for svar.
trutta
14.01.2020 kl 13:03 1709

Bruk appen VLCC fixtures
Flipper
14.01.2020 kl 16:34 1407

Fra et forum i Uniten, som er langt på vei hva jeg mener, FRO, er enveiskjørt, OPP

Shorties & hedge funds, good luck

VLCC Fixtures Today

Daily rates are hovering in the $90Ks now. The typical seasonal pattern would be for rates to slowly drop after December. Bulls believe the trough will be much higher this year than in previous years.

Veldig interessante ting på Link, som ikke kan limes inn her:

https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=244462&pt=msg&mid=20173151
Flipper
14.01.2020 kl 17:25 1299

Holder meg til denne tråden, så har vi alle Oversikt, vedr. FRO og tankers.

Litt på siden, men, viktig allikevel.

Russia & China are buying up the world's natural resources (oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel) while America supports failed banks by rigging the game to allow them to steal from the American people. I wonder who the future belongs to?
Highheat‏ @2020Upstream 3h3 hours ago

Russia & China are buying up the world's natural resources (oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel) while America supports failed banks by rigging the game to allow them to steal from the American people. I wonder who the future belongs to?


Gold & silver bombed overnight (again) & $Oil driven from $70 Brent down to below $64. Our forward thinking, HFT price manipulating Fed/Treasury/@BIS_org use cheap oil as stimulus to save a dying economy. Only one problem & that is that $63 Brent destroys the $Oil industry.


Notice how they are hitting gold right out of the starting gate again tonight. This is normal behavior for Fed/Treasury/BIS along with short selling a massive number of paper gold & silver contracts in their desperate attempt to hold down the price of the world's only real money.

Dan Oliver says the $Money has already been printed to take $Gold to $10,000.
Flipper
14.01.2020 kl 17:50 1221

Is Chevron's $11B Write-Down an Oilpatch Warning?

In December 2019, American oil major Chevron announced a major write-down of some $11 billion in the value of its assets, including its gas holdings in the Appalachia region, a deep-water Gulf of Mexico project and its proposed Kitimat LNG export project in British Columbia. In fact, Chevron’s Appalachian shale projects contributed to more than half of a massive impairment charge that the company reported for the last quarter.

This write-down is in response to Chevron’s own long-term forecast for oil and gas prices, which predicted much lower energy prices than previously. In Relevant igjen

December Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth in an interview with the Wall Street Journal said: “We have to make the tough choices to high-grade our portfolio and invest in the highest-return projects in the world we see ahead of us; and that’s a different world than the one that lies behind us.”

Decision makers at Chevron have realized the company is facing a market surplus in both oil and gas worldwide, which is impacting profit margins. As a result of such factors, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify investment in large gas fracking projects, especially with the prospect of slowing demand. Is it time to change the industry’s exploration strategy to more profitable targets?

It is likely that this California-based oil major will not be alone amongst oil companies announcing that their holdings in terms of market value are likely to be worth significantly less than previously estimated. This is because of current market conditions that are resulting in many American fracking projects failing to break even, and fluctuating public/investor concerns about the long-term future of the industry.

The Appalachia problem

A recent study by Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) found that for many operators, investing in Appalachia fracking operations has resulted in losing money. In its recent study published in November 2019, Negative Cash Flows Highlight Struggles of Appalachian Fracked Gas Producers,[i] the results found that at least seven of the largest frackers in the region had burned through half a billion dollars in the third quarter of 2019. The writers of the report found that, “Despite booming gas output, Appalachian oil and gas companies consistently failed to produce positive cash flow over the past five quarters.”

The IEEFA study discovered that of the seven companies examined, five enterprises were losing money, including Antero Resources, Chesapeake Energy, EQT, Range Resources, and Southwestern Energy. However, only Cabot Oil & Gas and Gulfport Energy were making a profit in the third quarter.

In fact, Chevron’s decision to sell its Appalachian holdings is not new; other oil companies have grown disappointed with fracking prospects in the region. For example, Reliance Industries Ltd. purchased Pennsylvania Marcellus (PM) assets in 2010, but sold its PM holdings in 2017, at a loss for a third of the original price it had paid.

Also, Texas-based Noble Energy Inc., made a $3.4-billion joint venture investment with CNX Resources in 2011, but six years later, it sold its stake in the venture for more profitable opportunities elsewhere.

Difficult times
Chevron is not the only oil business responding to difficult times. Oil contractor Schlumberger, together with oil majors BP and Repsol have made similar announcements about asset write-downs recently. With Schlumberger it made a write down of some $12.7 billion in October 2019, as a result of reduced fracking activity throughout the US. BP made a write-down of $2.6 billion in assets, whilst Spain’s Repsol took a $5-billion impairment. Repsol also said that it would try to transform its business, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Because of current difficult market conditions it seems unlikely that oil companies will see the hefty profit margins of the past in the near term. This is especially so with the impact of improved energy efficiency, growth of the renewables sector and the growing electrification of transportation.

Perhaps it is not surprising that because of the current difficult prospects the industry is facing, that the recent Aramco IPO was rushed and limited to local investors. Since, if Aramco had been listed on the world stock markets earlier in the year as originally promised, it is likely that international investor interest in Aramco would have proved very disappointing for the Saudi government.

One thing is clear--the American fracking business is facing interesting and challenging times.
Flipper
14.01.2020 kl 22:59 925

Refinery margin tracker: USWC refiners increase crude imports as coking margins strengthen

New York — US coking margins trended stronger last week as diesel demand rose and refinery runs fell, whetting the appetite for increased imports of heavy crudes into coker-heavy coastal refineries, an analysis from S&P Global Platts showed Monday.
US West coking margins outshone those of other regions, with Arab Medium averaging $12.39/b for the week ended January 10, up from the $10.60/b the week earlier, according to margin data from S&P Global Platts Analytics.
Margins for Arab Medium averaged $2.26/b on the US Gulf Coast, down from $3.56/b the week earlier.

Stronger USWC margins were supported by a draw in diesel stocks and fall in production in California, according to California Energy Commission data. On the USGC, product exports were impeded by dense fog and inclement weather, shipping sources said, which stranded barrels and weighed on regional margins.

Total US crude imports rose to 6.73 million b/d for the week ended January 3, according to Energy Information Administration data, with barrels from Iraq, Colombia and Brazil rising on week and Saudi Arabian and Canadian imports softening.

Crude imports are expected to rise again for the week ended January 10 to about 6.9 million b/d, according to estimates by Platts Analytics.

REFINERY SNAGS SUPPORT HIGHER USWC MARGINS
The biggest regional bump in crude imports came on the US West Coast, which imported 1.57 million b/d for the week ended January 3, EIA data showed, to replenish, in part, lower California crude inventories.

USWC crude imports are expected to post another rise after California crude stocks fell to 14.9 million barrels for the week ended January 3.

US Customs data shows crude imports into the Port of Long Beach, which serves Los Angeles-area refiners, rose to about 700,000 b/d for the week ended January 10 from 180,000 b/d the week earlier. About 450,000 b/d of imported crude had an API between 25 and 35.

Refining issues last week pushed Los Angeles CARB ULSD to an average a 17 cent/gal premium to San Francisco CARB ULSD, Platts price assessments showed, the widest spread between the two regions since 2014. Marathon reported flaring at its 363,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery, while PBF and Phillips 66 reported issues at their California refineries in Torrance and Wilmington.

California's distillate inventories fell by about 500,000 b/d to 4.729 million barrels for the week ended January 3, while production dropped to 330,000 b/d from the 397,000 b/d the week earlier, California Energy Commission data showed.

EUROPEAN MARGINS TICK HIGHER
Northwest Europe refinery margins were weaker despite ongoing port strikes in France, countered by a rise in gasoline inventories. French strikes are limiting crude deliveries to some refineries, including Total's 220,000 b/d Donges refinery, which on Monday shut down its crude unit due to lack of crude.

The Urals cracking margin in the oil hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp averaged $5.82/b for the week ended January 10, compared with $5.97/b the week earlier.

ARA gasoil stocks rose to 19.3 million barrels for the week ended January 3, according to Insights Global data, as warmer-than-normal temperatures capped regional heating demand.

Conversely, the data showed gasoline stocks fell to 8.72 million barrels as trade sources reported strong buying interest from the Persian Gulf, North America and West Africa due to planned work at several refineries in those regions.

ASIAN MARGINS RETREAT FURTHER
The Dubai cracking margin in Singapore slipped to an average of minus $2.31/b for the week ended January 10, down from the minus $2.08/b the week earlier, despite total clean product inventories slipping below the five-year seasonal range.

Margins were weaker on imports of naphtha, reformate and other blendstocks that poured in to Singapore from the Middle East, sources said.

Imports of light distillate stocks rose to 12.062 million barrels in the week ended January 8, according to data from Enterprise Singapore. Gasoline imports were fairly steady at about 2.78 million barrels, data showed.
tak123
15.01.2020 kl 09:36 590

TANK: 20 VLCC-SLUTNINGER TIRSDAG, RATE AG-SINGAPORE -14,3%

Frontline Ltd.

12.4 USD
12,40 USD
0 %
0,00%

15.1.2020, 06:25·
TDN Finans Delayed
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om 13 VLCC-slutninger mandag.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Fearnleys.
Fraktraten fra Midtøsten til Singapore lå på om lag 95 worldscalepoeng tirsdag, tilsvarende en nedgang på omtrent 14,3 prosent fra foregående handelsdag, ifølge data fra Infront.
Det ble seks reiser fra AG, der fem går fra Kina og en går fra Taiwan.
Videre ble det sluttet fire reiser fra USA-gulfen, der en går til Kina, en går til Sør-Korea, en går til Østen og en går til det fjerne Østen.
Det ble også sluttet en reise fra Brasil til Østen, og en reise fra Mexico til India.
Ellers ble det sluttet åtte reiser der detaljene ikke er kjent for markedet.
==============================================================
Størrelse Strekning WS-rate TCE($)
280 AG/USG 56 27.900
270 AG/Korea 93 65.400
260 V-Afr/Kina 95 68.200
==============================================================
Bunkerspris ($/MT 380 CST) VLSFO
==============================================================
Fujairah - 325 726
Singapore - 386 689
Rotterdam - 304 551
==============================================================
Slutningstelling AG:
==============================================================
Jan'19 - 132
Des'19 - 136
Nov'19 - 147