Her får dere en liten ABs Market Report for det amerikanske markedet.
Dette er et sammensurrium av ulike kilder som SEIA, GTM, Bernreuter og AB.

== US MARKET ==
The US market saw rapid growth in 2016 (14,6 GW installed). In 2017, the market remains slightly weaker but still strong (estimated 12,6 GW installed). In 2018, the market may be about the same as 2017 due to focus and noise surrounding US-China trade wars, but growth will return by 2019 as project builder want to secure the 30 % Investment Tax Credit.

In June 2017, SEIA/GTM announced that the US installed 2,044 MW (2 GW) of new installed capacity in 1Q17. Installations continued to grow as prices continued to fall to new lows, with utility-scale system prices dropping below the $ 1 per watt barrier for the first time. 1Q was the sixth straight quarter in which more than 2 GW was installed.

In September 2017, SEIA/GTM announced that the US installed 2,387 MW (2.3 GW) of new installed capacity in 2Q17 reaching a total of 47.1 GW of total installed capacity. This represented an 8 % increase over the same quarter last year. The US is poised to install more than 12 GW in 2017. The non-residential solar market grew 29 % year-over-year. More states like Idaho and Indiana saw large jumps in installations. Also, emerging state markets like Utah, Texas and South Carolina continued their growth.

According to GTM Research, the US may install 12.6 GW in 2017. This would be 16 % less than the 2016 boom. However, capacity is expected to nearly triple over the next five years. By 2022 more than 18 GW may be installed annually.

In 2017/2018, some parts of the market will focus on the trade dispute initiated by Suniva. If the Suniva-petition was fully successfully, this would add 78 cents per watt on modules this would translate into 13-35 % increased system costs, depending on segments. The International Trade Commission have suggested far lower remedies which would reduce this increase in system costs. Remedies would also gradually decrease during a five-year period. However, this ultimately depends on what President Trump decides. In any case, growth will return by 2019. High system costs can also be offset by installers and system-builders compensating by lower margins. In addition, prices may still be acceptable for a significant portion of the market who still see profitability in such projects.

According to SEIA/GTM, utility solar is set for another boom in procurement. Most of utility solar are focused on maximizing the number of projects that can come online with a 30 % federal Investment Tax Credit in 2019 or later by leveraging commence construction rules.

In 2016, solar reached a record-breaking year installing 14,762 MW (14,7 GW) according to SEIA. This was nearly a doubling of what was installed in 2015. Growth was primarily driven by the utility segment. This gave an average of 3,690.5 MW (3.6 GW) per quarter. This shows the potential when the market is hot and has strong growth. Indeed, the US market can install 6-7 GW in a single quarter when required as seen in 4Q16. In contrast, the lower end of the market with weaker conditions seems to stabilize above 2 GW or 8 GW annually. In 2017, political turmoil surrounding solar affecting investments see the total installations at around 12,6 GW. In 2018, depending on trade remedies, the marked could slow to 10 GW. However, by 2019 the market would return to its growth projectory.

Bernreuter has forecasted that 12.5 GW of new installations will come online in 2017.

The US solar market remains on a strong upward trajectory. This upward trajectory can be somewhat slowed down by US-China trade wars. Any US tariff may add a slight increase in system prices and thus slowing down the strong growth. However, as noise surrounding these remedies are settled, demand will return. In total, the political turmoil only causes slight hickups in the growth trajectory.

Globally, reduced growth opportunities in the US market will be compensated with foreign companies seeking opportunities in other markets. Especially, the Chinese market tends to compensate for American trade policies by increasing its growth. Other markets like the Indian marked could benefit from a temporarily cooling in the US market. In total a 2-4 GW slowdown in the US in 2017/2018 would not have a major impact in the overall growth globally. Foreign companies would find other markets and accept slightly lower margins. Growth is on the brink of breaking the 100 GW barrier with an annual growth rate at a wopping 30 % and near doubling from 2015.

While US companies have stockpiled in 3Q-4Q17 due to the Suniva-petition, this may lead less demand in 1Q18 to reduce inventories. It should then start to pick up again in 2H18 targeting the tax credit.


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INGEN GRUNN til å bli hysterisk over Suniva og Trump! Det er snarere en distraksjon som gjør at folk får en misvisende syn på totalmarkedet.