Dorian opp i dag også, denne kruttønna eksploderer snart er mitt tipps.. flere millioner aksjer short og segmentet er i seriøs bedring, ratene tikker godt oppover, det kommer få skip i 2018 og us lpg export is booming (check it out) dette vil øke de nautiske mil med mange prosent.



China and India’s LPG demand


International Energy Agency projects that China’s LPG demand could increase by 250 Mbpd by 2022—compared to 2016. Similarly, India’s LPG demand is expected to rise by 350 Mbpd by 2022. According to Enterprise Products Partners, the increase in the two countries is expected to be primarily in residential use, which isn’t usually sensitive to the price.

www.julerally.com

Om dette stemmer, så vil det bli stor mangel på båter i 2019, 2020 og 2021, jeg tror det var annen kar som skrev at det trengtes 3,5-4 båter for å frakte 1 mbdp, sum Kina og India 600mbpd delt på 4 år blir 150 mbpd økning pr. år fra og med 2018, deler vi på 4 båter pr 150mbpd, ender vi opp med 37 båter i økning pr år, det vil bli et stort underskudd på båter, ratene vil stige formidabelt , også utbyttene.
Om dere mener jeg tar helt feil ,korriger meg!!! Last opp, løp og kjøp!!!

12.3%!!

Looking ahead to 2018, EIA's forecast call for stronger LPG production growth of 6.1% and minimal domestic consumption growth of 0.8%. US net exports are forecast to grow by 12.3% in 2018, hitting 28 million tonnes.

Butane Propane News
BUTANE-PROPANE NEWS
The propane industry's leading source for news and information since 1939


SUNDAY, 17 DECEMBER 2017


The U.S. now stands as the No. 1 LPG exporter in the world

Additional projects to build new export facilities are planned, which could push U.S. export capacity to 40 million tonnes by 2018.

Dorian opp 5%

Baltic Dry Future Index for januar viser : 33500$

Japan's US LPG imports to hit record in 2017
Gasoil News - Published on Tue, 26 Dec 2017
Image Source: Reuters

Reuters reported that Japan's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports from the United States are expected to double in 2017 to a record and account for around for around half of its total purchases, government and shipping data showed. The surge comes as shale oil and gas output lifts overall US production to rival that of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

As with crude oil, the American exports displace LPG from the Middle East, where regional top producer of crude and LPG Saudi Arabia is losing market share, not least due to knock-on effects from the efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production in order to prop up prices.

LPG, a byproduct of crude oil and natural gas production, is a mixture of propane and butane and is used for cooking and as a transport fuel. It is also an important feedstock for the petrochemical industry.

With the United States not participating in any cuts, its LPG exports to Japan could hit almost 6 million tonnes by the end of 2017, shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon showed, virtually doubling the volumes within just one year.

"US imports are good for Japan from the energy security and diversification points of views," said Akira Yanagisawa, senior analyst at Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ).

American LPG now meets half of Japan's total supplies, pushing the Middle East out of the top spot.

And with U.S. oil output soaring by 80 percent since 2010 to almost 10 million barrels per day (bpd), and production expected to rise further, more American LPG is set to flood markets.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude output to exceed 10 million bpd next year. Many analysts believe as well that US production could rise further than the EIA's outlook, potentially rivalling levels of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, who currently pump 11 million and 10 million bpd, respectively.





Det var jo nettopp dette Nordea ga grunnlag for sin analyse i mai med kursmål 73 sterk vekst i us eksport.





Mener BW LPG kan doble seg
Nordea Markets er bull.

Nordea Markets - Foto: Finansavisen
annonse



Artikkel av: Odd Steinar Parr
30. mai 2017 - 10:25
Meglerhuset fastholder sin kjøpsanbefaling, og høyner kursmålet fra 70 til 73 kroner, går det ifølge TDN Finans frem av en oppdatering tirsdag.
- Vi gjør noen få endringer i estimatene og opprettholder vår positive holdning til 2018. Vi estimerer en flåtevekst på én prosent og en vekst i etterspørsel på åtte prosent, drevet av vekst i eksport fra USA, skriver Nordea, som ifølge nyhetsbyrået øyner en dobling av spotratene.

Litt vel negativt. Kan ha gjort en genistrek med kjøpet av Aurora sine skip. Hva som skjedde for 40 år siden kan man ikke bry seg så mye om nå. Ackermann har sikkert lært mye på de årene..

I motsetning til Belle så satser jeg på det fundamentale, 52 båter, størst i verden, økte rater framover p.g.a. 8 % vekst i etterspørsel, 1 % vekst i flåten, det vil på sikt bli mangel på båter. Det er forventet at Kina og India vil øke importen fra USA med henholdsvis 250k bpd og 350k bpd i 2022, til og med importen til Japan øker, legg også merke til at India er blitt verdens 5. største økonomi, gått forbi Storbritania og Frankrike. Har satset noen millioner, regner med 2 eller 3 gangen innen utgangen av 2020. Tipper at BWLPG er nær break even i 4. kvartal 2017, det kommer 28/2 2018, jeg mener at BWLPG er en vinneraksje, deres policy er å gi 50% utbytte etter skatt tilbake til aksjnærene. Ønsker dere alle et Godt Nytt År !!!

Ser at BELLES sine innlegg er tatt bort, det skjønner jeg godt, makan til feil fokus er det lenge siden jeg har sett, kanskje er han AVANCE tilhenger??

Dettane ser nå særsleik bra ut. Tipper vi skal til 48 som for et år siden. Avance 35-40. Fortsatt god jul.

Mange som snakker om Belles her nå ser jeg. (Antar det er Belles Rives?)

Han er sikkert en grei kar, men liker å skyte fra hofta og er ofte ganske skråsikker i sine påstander. Hva skrev han egentlig? Vitner om litt svakhet for sine bearish synspunkter om han nå har fjernet innleggene. Om jeg har misforstått totalt, så beklager jeg det overfor BR.

Ønsker alle fortsatt en God Jul!

Enig.
Godt nyttår til deg også

Ingen oppdatering fra Fearnleys denne uken?

India to beat China in LPG demand, imports on the rise



Dec 27, 2017

A Hungry India
LPG shipments to India will reach 2.4 million tonnes in December, pushing it ahead of top importer China, on 2.3 million tonnes, for the first time.

India’s average monthly imports in 2017 of about 1.7 million tonnes are well still behind China’s 2.2 million tonnes, but it has jumped ahead of third-placed Japan on about 1 million tonnes.


At present, China, India and Japan together make up about 45 percent of global LPG purchases.

LPG exports from the US have grown over time to stand at 200,000 tonnes in December, from 50,000 tonnes in the beggining of 2017, reported Reuters.

San Francisco, California, December 27, 2017: TMR Research

The growing usage of auto gas because of quick urbanization, and the growing population especially in the developing countries of Latin America, Africa and Asia Pacific are the main factors that are providing impetus to the global market of the liquid Petroleum gas. Plus, the steps taken by the government of countries like China, Indonesia, and India to replace the traditional cooking fuels like the coal, wood and kerosene with liquefied Petroleum gas by offering subsidies on LPG is also expected to result into the growth of a liquid Petroleum gas in the years to come. Governments across the globe are also launching LPG as an auto fuel since it releases less amounts of greenhouse gases.

Dobling av spot ratene kan bety dobling av kursen. 590000$ siste oppdatering fra Fearnleys uke 51 2017 tilsvarer 19666$ pr. dag, når ratene når 40000$ pr. dag ila 2018 kan kursen være i nærheten av (38,64 gange 2) = 77, 28 kr. Det skjer veldig fort forandringer i shipping, i sykliske aksjer generelt, begge veier, men nå skal denne sektoren opp, det skjønner de fleste derfor kan for å bruke et slitt utrykk bli trangt i døra, vi ser allerede at ting er i ferd med å endre seg, positiv kursoppgang, dette er jo bare begynnelsen, om noen år vil vi være i en situasjon hvor det er mangel på båter, da vil det bli bonanza igjen. På litt sikt, 2020 desember, tror jeg vi har rundet 100 kr med god margin, med 6 nybygg og 12 båter fra Aurora, så har BWLPG mer enn 50% flere båter enn ved forrige topp på 90 kr, er sikker på at det skal vi langt forbi!!
Ønsker alle BWLPGERE et GODT NYTT BØRSÅR I 2018 !!!!

Africa's multi-national lpg growth on the move...




Nigerian Zayyan Yabo, emerges Africa LPG Association Sec- Gen
Posted By: Adamu Suleiman, Sokoto On: December 29, 2017

A Nigerian professional Engineer, Zayyan Tambari Yabo ‎of the Department of Petroleum Resources(DPR) has emerged as the pioneer Secretary General of the African Liquefied Petroleum Gas Association.
The association which was founded in February 2017 in Cape Town, South Africa at the sidelines of ARGUS Media Africa LGP Conference, also elected Mr. Samson Muamba as its pioneer President following amicable consultations among the delegates.
Muamba, is the Managing Director and CEO of Fire Corp Energy, Zambia.
In a statement issued to reporters in Sokoto Friday evening by Sirajo Dalhatu Sifawa of the Sokoto state Council of the Nigeria Union of Journalists(NUJ) said stakeholders from across Africa formed the umbrella association to promote the growth and development of LPG sector both domestic and industrial usage.
Accordingly, “the newly founded association ‎will bring the relevant government agencies, companies in LPG business, energy consulting firms, multinational development agencies supporting growth of energy, financial institutions, energy journals and diplomatic bodies in realsing it’s objectives”, the statement further explained.
However, Yabo, a well known professional especially in the regulation of LPG sector in Nigeria from the DPR headquarters, emerged along side other executives at the post conference election.
He is a trained chemical engineer from ‎the prestigious Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria with record of attendance of several national and overseas professional courses in LPG operations in countries including Germany, Turkeyn France, South Africa and the United Kingdom respectively.
The new Secretary General also belongs to several other professional bodies as the Nigeria Gas Association, Nigeria Society of Chemical Engineers and Polymer Institute of Nigeria accordingly.

Lenge siden jeg har sett noen oppdatering av ratene for lpg-befraktning. Noen som har oppdateringer ?

Nasdaq-----------The global LPG consumption is forecast to surpass 380 MMTPA by 2026, majorly on account of increasing government initiatives to boost LPG consumption, surging LPG demand as a cooking fuel, and planned refinery expansions of major petroleum refineries across the globe.

Synes den holder seg bra, vinner vi over shorterne nå så smeller vi oppover

Anbefaling av bwlpg i dagens FA , kan da ikke være gøy å være short i denne nå.
2 januar økte shorten med over 16% og den totale shorten er vel ca 7 mill aksjer tror jeg.

Ratene skal opp mye i 2018 så inndekning kan ikke være langt unna, om vi ikke får ratenedgang nå med det første, så er det noen som sitter i en seriøs stor saks..

Firebird!
Har du noen formening om hva kursen vil være nyttår 2018? (gjetning selvfølgelig)

Evt hva vil ratene ligge på i 4. kvartal 2018?

Vanskelig å spå rater så langt frem, så mange variabler som spiller inn, at ratene er langt bedre enn de er nå, er det bred enighet om, demand toget kommer og det er alt for få skip som bygges @ this moment.
India og kina bygger ut import facilities og USA bygger ut export terminals som vil gi lengre shippingruter enn fra midtøsten.



LPG, LNG tankers take advantage of expanded Panama Canal

Houston (Platts)--9 Jan 2018 638 pm EST/2338 GMT


"No state has more deepwater ports than Texas," Sosa said.

As evidence of the expected growth in the region's international trade, he pointed to an ExxonMobil announcement last spring that the integrated oil and gas company planned to invest $20 billion in building up its petrochemical operations in the Gulf Coast region.

The bulk of that investment is expected to be put toward ramping up the export of US-sourced petrochemicals to Asia via the canal, he said.

"This also opens the door for the ports of Freeport, Port Arthur and Sabine Pass," Sosa said.

Håper og tror kursen ser 60kr før nyttår 2018, det forventes også at det skrapes mer skip en normalen i år, da den nye ballastvannkonvensjonen trer i kraft til høsten og vil gjøre det dyrere for gamle skip å legge til i havn.

India konverterer fra oljeprodukter til gassprodukter og det merkes godt på oljeimporten


India also saw some structural demand changes that affected the use of refined oil products.

A government push for household to use more liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has India challenging China as the world’s top LPG importer.

This has come at the cost of a straight 15-month decline in jet fuel and kerosene demand in India, Morgan Stanley said.

Also, “naphtha demand ... was down 8 percent for 2017 as a whole, possibly driven by more LPG use in petrochemicals,” it said.

India bygger ut og snart klare for mer gass

LPG receiving jetty to be ready for use by March
SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT JANUARY 10, 2018 01:09 IST
UPDATED: JANUARY 10, 2018 07:57 IST

It is part of the LPG import terminal project
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has said that work on the ₹225-crore LPG receiving jetty on Puthuvype island, which is part of a larger project costing a total of ₹715 crore and including a storage facility, is nearing completion. The cost of jetty construction is ₹183 crore. Another ₹42 crore will go into dredging works, said a press release here.

According to IOC’s plan, the construction of both the facilities — jetty and storage terminal — are to be synchronised so that one facility will not become idle for want of the other.

The construction had begun in February 2016.

ISIN NAME SUM SHORT # SUM SHORT % LATEST POSITION
BMG067231032 Avance Gas Holding Ltd 2 774 263 4.27% 09.01.2018
BMG173841013 BW LPG Limited 7 266 813 5.10% 09.01.2018

Dagens analyse ra DnB er jo bare latterlig, enda en repetisjon av hva de har messet får flere måneder siden. Fakta er at Lpg markedet vil være rottent lenge

LPG markedet er i fint driv og blir bedre utover i 2018 og 2019. Hjelper lite at de som er short baiser så godt de kan.

Statoil ser økt forbruk i Asia ,og dei tru på de øker videre. IEA etterspørselen på lpg vil øke dei neste tiår, økt bruk til petrokjemiske industri . Utviklingsland vil erstatte ved ,kull ,parafin. IMO.ser som mulighet lpg som mulig drivstoff for skip i fremtiden. BW LPG ser eg som ein god investering.

Hvor stor er forskjellen på LPG og LNG markedet når det kommer til tilbud av de to råvarene? Hvor forskjellig er bruken?

En positiv ting kan ikke sies for ofte, lpg ratene vil forbedre seg utover i 2018, så du tar feil, siddis, lpg markedet er ikke råttent, men stigende framover, om ikke lenge vil det mangel på båter, det skal kun leveres 38 båter de neste 3 år, det vil trengs et sted mellom 25 og 30 båter pr. år, kanskje flere avhengig av hvor mange båter som sendes til hugging. I følge Firebird kommer det nye restriksjoner fra høsten ang. balast- tanker, gamle skip må betale mer for å legge til havn.
Mitt råd er: Vær langsiktig (2-3 år) da er ganske sikker på at vi runder tresiffret, løp og kjøp. Nordea har kursmål på kr. 73.

https://e24.no/energi/gass/henter-inn-to-nye-fraktskip-fra-2020-statoil-gir-gass-innen-lpg/24230158

Produktene brukes til mye av det samme, LNG er litt mer begrenset i bruksområdet fordi den trenger heftig nedkjøling for å holde seg i komprimert flytende tilstand og mer vanlig til industri en til private hjem.



















Difference Between LPG & Natural Gas
LPG (propane) and Natural Gas (methane) are both used in essentially the same way but they are also different in many ways.

In Australia, we rely on both types of gas for our energy needs.

LPG and Natural Gas are widely available and used for thousands of applications in homes and business.

What are the Key Differences Between LPG vs Natural Gas?
Natural gas (methane) vs LPG (propane)

In summary:

• LPG (propane) and natural gas (methane) have different chemical formulas: Methane is CH4. Propane is C3H8.

• LPG has a higher calorific value - energy content - than natural gas, with 93.2MJ/m3 vs 38.7MJ/m3.

• For proper combustion, LPG requires an air to gas ratio of approximately 25:1 whilst natural gas requires a 10:1 ratio.

• LPG (propane) is more dense than air, at a relative density of 1.5219:1 vs natural gas (methane) at 0.5537:1, which is lighter than air.

• LPG can be compressed into a liquid and stored or transported in a cylinder or larger vessel.

• Natural gas and LPG appliances operate at different pressures.

• LPG can be easily processed into Simulated Natural Gas – SNG – and used as a substitute for natural gas. The same is not true in reverse.



Piped Gas
Natural gas or “mains gas” is the gas supplied to homes and businesses by gas pipelines or “gas mains” (reticulation systems).
This is how most Australians receive their gas.
CNG (Compressed Natural Gas)
Methane gas can be stored at high pressure, typically over 200 bars, but it is not very economical for long distance transport.
CNG does have some specific applications where the product is used in close proximity to where it is compressed.
City buses are a good example of a successful CNG application.
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)
LNG reduces volume by 600 times
Methane gas is processed into LNG by cooling it to −161°C, at which point it becomes a liquid.

This reduces the volume of the natural gas by a factor of more than 600 times as it goes from its gaseous state to liquid.

That's like going from a beach ball to a ping pong ball.

This reduced volume facilitates economical transport by sea or road.

Common LNG uses include industrial applications and long haul trucking.

The technology involved with LNG is generally not cost effective for small volume users, such as homes and small businesses.



Refined from Oil & Natural Gas
LPG processing involves separation and collection of the gas from its petroleum base.
LPG is isolated from the petrochemical mixtures by separation from natural gas or by the refining of crude oil.
Both processes begin by drilling oil wells.
The gas/oil mixture is piped out of the well and into a gas trap, which separates the stream into crude oil and "wet" gas, which contains LPG and natural gas.
The heavier crude oil sinks to the bottom of the trap and is then pumped into an oil storage tank for refining.
Crude oil undergoes a variety of refining processes, including catalytic cracking, crude distillation, and others.
One of the refined products is LPG.
The "wet" gas, off the top of the gas trap, is processed to separate the gasoline (petrol) from the natural gas and LPG.

Spor Ratene stuper, er nå USD 10,500. Bare tull at det blir en særlig rateoppgang å snakke om i 2018. Etterspørselen øker nok noe, men ikke nok til at vi får rateoppgang. Altfor mange skip er bygd, i tillegg kommer det 24 nye skip i 2018 og nærmere 20 i 2019. Det er i tillegg omtrent ikke skraping av eldre tonnasje, noe som er merkelig. Det er tross alt en del gamle skip på 25+ år som fremdeles seiler. Sats heller på kjemikaliemarkedet,, da dette vil komme sterkt tilbake i andre halvår pga redusert ordrebok og en jevn stigning i etterspørsel år etter år. Stolt Nielsen og Odfjell er utrolige billige nå, men om 6 måneder kan de ha gått opp 100 %. Om 2 år 200-300% for Odfjell som idag prises kun til 2,6 milliarder kr