I følge DnB er ordreboken 8 skip i både 2018 og 2019??

Nordea har økt kursmålet på BWLPG fra 74 til 87 kr, løp og kjøp!!!

BW LPG ligger nå i taket av den kortsiktige trendkanalen.

Da blir det enten gevinstsikring eller brudd opp.

From Epic gas financial calendar 14/2 2018


For the fourth quarter of 2017, 3,500cbm, 5,000cbm, 7,500cbm and 11,000cbm market rates averaged $7,714, $9,329, $10,000 and $13,075 per day, respectively. Compared to fourth quarter of 2016, average rates have increased 30% for the 3,500cbm and 5,000cbm vessels, down by 1.9% for the 7,500cbm vessels and remained flat for the 11,000cbm vessels.

During the quarter, two pressurised vessels – a 4,000cbm and a 13,000cbm, and one 7,000cbm semiref vessel delivered, whilst 4 small-sized semi-ref vessels were scrapped. Effectively, a zero increase in capacity.

The year 2017 ended with a total of 329 pressure vessels (non-Chinese flagged over 3,000cbm) on the water, including 8 newbuilds totaling 74,500cbm that delivered during the year. Two pressure vessels involved in international trade were scrapped. They totalled 7,134cbm and were an average age of 28.5 years. This resulted in a net fleet year on year growth in capacity of 4.1% compared to 6.4% in the previous year. Presently, there are 6 newbuild vessels to be delivered in 2018 and 2019 representing a 1.8% increase in existing fleet capacity, the lowest supply growth in any bulk commodity shipping sector. Further, in the existing international trading fleet, there are 11 ships / 36,537cbm that are aged 28 years and older, making them potential scrapping candidates, which will further reduce the aforementioned 1.8% fleet growth rate

Re :

Innlegg av: kodenavn (14.02.18 22:01 ), lest 116 ganger
Ticker: BWLPG
RE^1: BWLPG kursdobbling
DnB:

LPG: US Run-rate February production 14% higher than February 2017 production

Extra attention!!!

Presently, there are 6 newbuild vessels to be delivered in 2018 and 2019 representing a 1.8% increase in existing fleet capacity, the lowest supply growth in any bulk commodity shipping sector.


;) ;) ;)

Extra, extra attention!!!!

Fra Avance sin rapport i dag;

By end January 2018 the VLGC order book stood at 35 ships, of which seven ships are scheduled for
delivery in this year. The remaining orderbook will be delivered in 2019 and 2020.

Gersemi Research
2018: Firing On All Cylinders

Feb. 13, 2018 10:58 AM

LPG Shipping: 1Q18 Marks The Spot
LPG shipping has moved from a scarce resource in 2014/2015 where regional LPG price differentials dictated the marginal revenue, to an oversupplied commodity shipping segment where marginal cost is the name of the game. However, we believe this will change in 2018E as vessel supply growth grinds almost to a halt and demand continues its rapid growth. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and forecast shares to rise 98% on average over the next year.

Market fundamentals: We believe 1Q18 will mark the trough and share prices to rally from seasonal and fundamental improvements in 2Q18 and beyond. We forecast a net supply growth of 0.6% q/q in 1Q18E to be followed by two quarters of negative supply growth and an annualized growth rate below 3% throughout 2019E. This unusually low supply growth will form the foundation for the next expansionary phase of the cycle against what we forecast to be 9-10% annualized demand growth in 2018E/19E.

Ser meget lovende ut gjennom 2018 og 2019

100% opp !!! :)

Argus Summit: India LPG imports to grow
17 Jan 2018, 7.51 pm GMT

Houston, 17 January (Argus) — India's LPG consumption is forecast to increase by nearly 6pc to 23mn t by the end of 2018 as the government invests in infrastructure, according to Indian consultancy Arihant Global.

Energy consumption in India is expected to double by 2030 and shift towards increased LPG and natural gas usage, Arihant Global chief executive Hemal Sanghani said today at the Argus Americas LPG Summit in Houston.


India is investing $4.5bn to expand terminals, storage, bottling plants, and build new pipelines. The projects include a 2mn t/yr import terminal on the west coast and a 60,000t storage cavern planned by Total and Hindustan Petroleum in southern India.

US LPG is increasingly competitive with the Middle East, Sanghani said. The US supplied 50,000-100,000t of LPG to India during the first quarter of 2017, Arihant estimates.

Gains in India's consumption comes as US shale production continues to leave the global LPG market a long during the next few years, according to Argus Consulting. Argus consultants are forecasting global LPG production will continue to grow until 2020, when it begins to level off and flatten in 2025.

"No one is predicting that demand will be flat," Black said. Increased demand from Asia will be led by China and India, he said. The rest of the region, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, will see demand growth increase by 50pc from 2010 to 2027, according to Argus Consulting.

RISING IMPORTS

India's LPG imports in November were at 1.246 million, up 2.6% on the month and 23.4% on the year, the latest provisional data from the country's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed.

Imports between April and November last year were 7.641 million mt, up almost 12% year on year.

The growth in India's LPG imports has also attracted interest from the LPG shipping sector.

BW LPG Ltd, the world's largest owner of VLGCs based on vessel number and LPG-carrying capacity, last July formed a 50:50 joint venture in India with Global United Shipping India Pte. Ltd.

The joint venture -- BW Global United LPG India Pte. Ltd. -- aims to own and operate gas carriers to move LPG within Indian waters, BW LPG said.

"We believe LPG in India is a growing market," BW LPG CEO Martin Ackermann told S&P Global Platts recently. "For the next couple of years, we will likely see 7-10% year-on-year growth."

India to cut GST tax on LPG sold by private sector to 5% from 18%
Singapore (Platts)--19 Jan 2018 852 am EST/1352 GMT



India will cut the goods and services tax on LPG sold by the private sector to domestic consumers to 5% from 18%, effective January 25, the GST Council said on is website Thursday.

Industry sources said Friday the move, together targeting LPG subsidies based on income, would boost the competitiveness of the private sector to meet growing demand.

The change will now mean the same rate of GST for the private and public sectors, but customs duty remains 5% for LPG imported by the private sector, compared with zero for state companies.

Nonetheless, traders say they expect the move to bolster imports into India, which is already rivaling China as the world's top LPG importer.

Litt helgelektyre for de som er interessert. God helg:-)

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/

Liquefied Petroleum Gas LPG Market 2018 Prognosticated to Grow with Significant Growth Rate by 2022
February 13, 2018 - by Rahul Jadhav



Global Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market accounted for 285.9 million tons in 2015 and is expected to reach 390.13 million tons by 2022 growing at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period. Growing count of vehicles that are using autogas and initiatives taken by government to boost utilization of LPG as cooking fuel and auto fuel are the key factors driving the market growth. However, instability in prices of crude oil is hampering the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market.

Ratene opp 11.6 % siden i går.

15,043 USD/day

Nigeria’s LPG market rises to over 600,000 mt per annum, with massive investments in infrastructure – Nuhu Yakubu

Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/02/nigerias-lpg-market-rises-600000-mt-per-annum-massive-investments-infrastructure-nuhu-yakubu/

Hvor har du tallene fra? I øvrigt tak for de mange gode indlæg. Det kunne være dejligt, hvis du opgave et link, når du poster.

Det er grunn til å glede seg til fortsettelsen :)

Innlegg av: kodenavn (19.02.18 21:25 ), lest 140 ganger

Ticker: BWLPG

RE^1: BWLPG kursdobbling

Denne kommer til å gå lenge før Q4.

Det kan skje når som helst, pga shorten.

Siste rate (DnB i kveld) opp nesten 1000 USD.

VLGC (USD 16,868/day

BW LPG Limited (BMG173841013)
ACC. SHORT #
8 740 548

ACC. SHORT %
6,14%

LATEST POSITION (DD.MM.YYYY)
16.02.2018

Stille før stormen...

US lpg export vil gjøre comeback nå som det blir mildere i nord USA etter 2mnd med rekordkulde

Enig med den konklusjonen Firebird...Det ser meget lovende ut i mine øyne. US produserer som aldri før, kun 8 nybygg blir levert i 2018 (laveste nybygg program i samtlige shipping segmenter), Kineserene bytter fra kull til gass, India er opp 25% import y o y og vi går mot LPG markedets høysesong (les; mai-aug)......I tilegg trader de fleste LPG aksjene med en stor rabatt på NAV...bare å laste opp....

Veldig spennende teknisk chart i BW LPG nå..! Nærmer seg spissen i en 2 år lang kile.
Tok pent imot på støtte.. Dersom aksjer bryter gjennom 39-40 kroner ila 2-3 uker, vil det utløse et meget kraftig kjøpssignal. Men rundt 20% short så kan det bli veldig spennende!

Feature: India's LPG imports expected to hit 14 mil mt in fiscal 2018-19
Singapore (Platts)--20 Feb 2018 442 am EST/942 GMT



India's LPG imports are expected to rise by 2 million mt, or nearly 17% year on year, to about 14 million mt in fiscal 2018-2019 (April-March) as demand from households surges on the government's efforts to shift to clean fuels, sources familiar with the matter said.

Imports are set to reach around 12 million mt in fiscal 2017-2018, making India the world's second-biggest LPG importer, and in the next five years, annual imports are expected to rise to around 16 million mt, they said.

Though this will drive demand for ships, maritime analysts said Indian LPG importers and shipping companies would focus on chartering or buying secondhand vessels, and not rush to build their own VLGC armada as was done by Chinese importers amid ample global vessel supply that has pushed rates lower.

The country imported 1.133 million mt of LPG in December, down 8.5% from 1.238 million mt in November, the highest last year, latest provisional data from the country's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed.

In 2017, Indian imports totaled 11.896 million mt, up 22.27% on the year, PPAC data showed.

Japan imported 10.54 million mt of LPG in 2017, up from 10.52 million mt in 2016, while China imported 18.52 million mt, official and industry data showed. Chinese customs data do not include shipments from Iran.

India's LPG demand is expected to grow by 3 million mt in fiscal 2018-19 from about 24 million mt in 2017-2018, the sources said. Over five years, annual demand is expected to rise to 30 million mt, they said

SHIPPING DEMAND

Though Indian importers mainly use term-charter vessels for Middle East cargoes, Indian shipping companies Great Eastern Shipping, Varun Shipping and Global United only have a fleet of seven VLGCs, with a total capacity of 542,501 cu m, Olivia Watkins, gas analyst with marine valuation provider VesselsValue, said.

This compares to the global VLGC fleet of 255, plus 29 on order.

Indian shipowners prefer spot or time-chartered vessels and Indian shipping companies generally purchase old vessels. Varun Shipping bought the BW Borg, and state-run Shipping Corp. of India bought the BW Vision in 2016.

Shipping giant BW LPG also formed a joint venture with Indian company Global United Shipping last year to serve the Indian market. VesselsValue records 16 VLGCs under charters of one to two years with IOC, BPCL and HPCL since 2011.

"Market rates for hiring VLGCs remain very depressed due to the oversupply of tonnage on the market. Long-term hire or purchase of old vessels would be far more economical for Indian companies," VesselsValue analyst Court Smith said, adding that investment in domestic Indian yard expansions or greenfield sites was not needed as there was substantial excess in global shipbuilding capacity.

Drewry's Sharma said new vessel orders look less likely for now, though he expected to see more joint ventures such as that formed by BW LPG, considering India's bullish LPG demand outlook.

"Despite the government's "Make in India" program, I do not see it happening anytime soon considering the lack of experience of Indian shipyards -- lack of technological know-how and higher lead time to build a vessel locally. We also have an example from the LNG sector, with Gail scrapping its tender to build LNG vessels locally," he added.

Ser ut til at India skrinlegger båtbyggerprosjektet, bull som fan for hele gassfraktsektoren.

Extra bull for bwlpg selvsagt


Drewry's Sharma said new vessel orders look less likely for now, though he expected to see more joint ventures such as that formed by BW LPG, considering India's bullish LPG demand outlook

Gassmarkedet øker vesentlig, særlig asia, men også europa
Det er det mange sikre indikatorer på

Bull er riktig begrep!

Ratene på VLGC opp 30% forrige uke fra 405 000til 530 000...Det går riktig veien..!

Scrapping

First, the 28,000 cbm fully ref COURCHEVILLE (Built 1989 at Boelwerf Shipyard, Belgium) with ldt 10,150 was beached in Alang on 31st Jan. No details on pricing are known as of yet.

Secondly, the first VLGC to be scrapped in 2018, namely the 78,400 cbm SEA DOLPHIN (Built 1990 at MHI, 16,365 ldt, ex-DL CALLA) sold by Kunlun Shipping basis a prompt “as is” delivery in Singapore. She is understood to have achieved region US$ 450/ldt (approx. US$ 7.4 mill) which is considered a firm number and reflects a lack of candidates in the market.

This brings the total number of LPG vessels scrapped YTD 2018 to 7 vessels. In addition, there are a further 4 small / coastal LPG vessels which have been removed from the fleet for a variety of reasons including being abandoned / involved in a collision and scrapped or converted at some point in the past.

In light of the sale of the SEA DOLPHIN, our assessment of a standard LPG carrier (no significant quantities of metals such as nickel and stainless steel) has increased by US$10/ldt to US$460/ldt in India, whilst remaining unchanged at US$ 290/ldt in Turkey






existing international trading fleet, there are 11 ships / 36,537cbm that are aged 28 years and older, making them potential scrapping candidates

 


The smaller-sized semi-ref fleet that can compete with the pressure vessels has an order book of 7 vessels, 4 of which are the more expensive ethylene vessels purpose built for that trade. This newbuild capacity equates to a semi-ref net fleet growth of 3.3%, which is more than likely to be lower due to a scrapping ‘pool’ of 18 vessels older than 28 years. We expect that higher operating costs for the older units and probable capital investments required by new legislation will compel owners to strongly consider scrapping these older ships. A total of 12 smaller semi-ref vessels were scrapped in 2017, at an average age of 28 years

Clean fuel focus in India may open door for US LPG imports
It is estimated that India’s LPG import requirements may eventually be greater than what the Middle East can supply



Most of India’s LPG purchases are from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait.
Mumbai: India’s increased focus on cleaner cooking fuel may open the door for imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US, according to Facts Global Energy.

The world’s second largest importer of the fuel raised its target for providing free cooking gas connections to the poor by 60% to 80 million families, finance minister Arun Jaitley said in his budget speech on Thursday.

“As LPG demand in India increases, we may see U.S. LPG cargoes coming to India. It may happen this year or next,” said Ong Han Wee, the Singapore-based head of the LPG team at Facts Global. “Aside from Iran, the supply growth will remain flat in the Middle East. India import requirements may eventually be greater than what Middle East can supply.”

The oil and gas consultancy estimates LPG demand in India will grow by a million tons in 2018. Consumption expanded more than 8% to nearly 23 million tons last year, with imports making up more than half those requirements.

Shipments have surged in the past two years under a government program to provide free LPG connections to women from families living below the poverty line. That’s helped the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest importer of LPG, still trailing China.

Most of India’s LPG purchases are from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. The country got its first cargo of crude and ethane from the US last year and of liquefied natural gas the year before that.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is attempting to reduce the use of polluting fuels such as wood and cow dung, which cause 1.3 million premature deaths in India every year, according to the World Health Organization.

“With the expansion, we will be able to extend cleaner fuel to almost 100 percent of the poor households in the country,” Jindal said.


Bloomberg

Opp 4,3 % så langt i dag.

Omsatt 229.000 aksjer

Shorten er 9.540.000 aksjer

Noen har et problem

Buckle up :)

Ratene fortsetter å bedre seg, tenker kjempeshorten ventet et større fall i ratene, nå går de oppover og det ef ingen ting som kan stoppe demandtoget nå, det er ustoppelig så lenge det ikke skjer noe uforutsett :)

Shorten er svær som fan og tiden tikker mot bedre tider..

Hva tipper dere kursen ender på i dag og i morgen ( høyest )?

Ingen står bedre rigget for opptur en bwlpg.. verdens største flåte, flonka moderne.


Very Large Gas Carriers (82,000-84,000 cbm)
No.
Name

Built

CBM

1
BW Mindoro

2017

84,000

2
BW Messina

2017

84,000

3
BW Tucana

2016

84,195

4
BW Volans

2016

84,195

5
BW Magellan

2016

84,000

6
BW Malacca

2016

84,000

7
BW Njord

2016

84,000

8
BW Var

2016

84,000

9
BW Balder

2016

84,000

10
BW Brage

2016

84,000

11
BW Freyja

2016

84,000

12 BW Frigg 2016 84,000
13
BW Carina

2015

84,195

14
BW Gemini

2015

84,195

15
BW Leo

2015

84,195

16
BW Libra

2015

84,195

17
BW Orion

2015

84,195

18
BW Aries

2014

84,195

19
BW Kyoto

2010

83,298

20
BW Austria

2009

84,614

21
BW Tokyo

2009

83,270

22
BW Odin

2009

82,000

23
BW Loyalty

2008

84,631

24
BW Lord

2008

84,614

25
BW Princess

2008

82,383

26
BW Oak

2008

82,291

27
BW Tyr

2008

82,000

28
BW Thor

2008

82,000

29
BW Liberty

2007

84,597

30
BW Maple

2007

82,291

31
BW Cedar

2007

82,291

32
BW Birch

2007

82,291

33
BW Prince

2007

82,000

34
BW Confidence

2006

83,270

35
Berge Ningbo

2006

82,252

36
Berge Nantong

2006

82,244

37
BW Energy

2002

82,200

38
BW Boss

2001

84,333

39
Maharshi Vishwamitra

2001

84,333

40 Oriental King 2017 84,000

The LPG sector - turning up the gas

Shipping of propane and butane, LPG, a niche corner of maritime markets, has received attention in recent weeks through webinars, conference calls and analysts reports, with renewed optimism about listed companies in the sector.

The sector saw a surge in 2013 - 2015 as US exports boomed, with greatly growing Asian import demand, but crashed in 2016 - 2017 as the resultant burst of vessel ordering brought about a severe overtonnaging situation.

Statistics presented by consultants NGLS show just shy of 100m tonnes of cargo traded in 2017. Middle East origins, nearly 39m tonnes, still dominate the export leaderboard, but show the “Americas” share increasing most rapidly over the past few years. Conversely the import side of the cargo matrix shows the biggest share, and largest incremental gains, coming from product moving into the Asia - Pacific region.

Growth in demand has come from unexpected places, as well. As the market has evolved through 2017 and into 2018, an NGLS analysis shows that “arbitrage” margins were impinged in 2017, as US gas prices (Mount Belvieu pricing) strengthened, bringing about a decline in cracking demand. On the Capital Link webinar, John Lycouras, ceo of Dorian LPG, noted that: “The surprise this year [2017] was India, which surpassed Japan in imports of LPG. Indonesia has been one of the major big importers of LPG that was not there before.”

As petrochemical demand grows, increased deployments of the Propane dehydrogenation, or PDH, a process for producing the all-important propylene (with lower costs than competing technologies), has led to gains in propane demand, with NGLS noting that “PDH is much more significant in the East.”

Lycouris, concurred, tying new PDH plants in Asia to “a continuation of strong demand for LPG.” On the same webcast, Charles Maltby, ceo of owner Epic Gas said: “The surprise has been the ramp back up of propylene imports into China…and that’s important for pressurized LPG vessel.”

These developments present the backdrop for Jefferies & Co’s “Buy” recommendation on Stealth Gas. The firm’s shipping equities analyst, Randy Giveans, wrote in a late February investment recommendations: “With LPG shipping rates increasing across all asset classes in recent months, the charter rates in the small LPG asset class have rallied to the highest level since 2Q14, and we believe the small LPG shipping market is poised to improve further in the coming months. Volatility in the market has led to a low share price/net asset value for Stealth Gas (and for others).

Forecasting future demand for LPG moves is a highly complicated business, with NGLS saying, in the Evercore/ ISI presentation, that: “US production economics will dictate global LPG growth,” adding that pricing and arbitrages will depend on a complex array of economic factors differentiated for propane versus butane.

One facet of the compressed arbitrage margins is the potential move to more coverage of shipping under term charters. Peder Nicolai Jarlsby, an analyst at Fearnley Securities, regarding the likelihood of more contract and COA focus from large operators as commodity pricing differentials have stabilized. Dorian’s

Lycouras said: “I think the larger players would probably opt for more contract coverage where one can use logistics and vessel reliability to pick up cargoes from various places…I think that contract is probably the best way to go forward.”

BWLPG og Avanse burde jo ha vært priset vesentlig høyre nå med slike rater. Hvorfor så lav prising?

Sannsynligvis fordi de med mest penger ikke tror de vil holde.

Det ble svakere enn konsensus, skuffende da dorian og avance leverte over...
Uansett så tikker ratene oppover og det skal dekkes inn mye short fremover, jeg tror at vi ender over 35kr idag..

Time will show