North Energy - TXP Rocket ! and Underlying Value vs. Share Price

PetroMonkey
NORTH 17.12.2019 kl 17:05 6034

I should say I am not a fan of the North management's silent style, but we are here for numbers, and at the end of the day numbers do the talking.

I don't have the whole picture as I haven't followed North for quite some time, and elected to go hard in TXP directly. I feel I have way too much there now, and even though I would like more due to the events unfolding, I think it is prudent to place the funds in a slightly different way, and that is North (got I hate to be in this).

Touchstone Exploration is on the edge of a massive change in it's valuation, something we have been waiting for for a long time, and my oh my how big it looks it hit. Was up 80% yesterday in Toronto on the massive oil pay found in well #2, and holding that level very well in London and also in Toronto the day after which is good after such a hard vertical rocket trip. We are expecting news of the pressure build up test of the gas well from an independent engineering company by the end of the week.

Video of gas flare during testing from well #1 (note that they couldn't open it all the way up because they were afraid the equipment would fail, and this you see is still twice the flow they were expecting from this well for the test):

https://youtu.be/6ISXeHaWPj0

And during the day so you get better scale perspective, flare gets bigger at end.

https://youtu.be/mx2_A527zSo

Okay, North is around 1,30 Nok, Reach is around 1,45 Nok, and TXP is around 0,40 Cad. North has 120 mil shares.

0.156 TXP share per North Share and a value of 0.011 Nok / Cad cent TXP share price is. 0,40 Cad * 0,011 Nok = 44 øre per share

0.3045 Reach share per North Share and a value of Nok to Nok which is easy. 1,45 Nok * 0.3045 = 44 øre * 90% ownership of Acello =40 øre per share

North has cash of 30 mil nok = 25 øre per share

***** These 3 simple things together is 1,09 Nok which is 21 øre under the current share price. *******

I suspect that TXP will be rising to multiples over the near and medium term. First is gas test, and then fast tracking production and a developement plan. Wells 3 and 4 (and then a bunch of production wells after or a couple before 3 and 4). Wells 3 and 4, especially Royston, named after CEO's father has the potential to be 5 or 6 times larger than well #1, in other words a Monster. These are offshore type wells on land.

The subsea vessel market is getting tenders in early (I know this first hand from many sources), and this is following up a major rise in the activity at machine shops in all of 2018. We are past the bottom, and moving upwards. Vessel rates were higher in 2018 than 2017, I know this first hand. Reaches move into Trinidad is interesting, although I don't know anything about the market there to comment. Reach has an attractive fleet of vessels when the demand for using them returns, which it looks like it is starting to. Shale oil is choking on their own greed, lets hope this continues, and this combined with IMO 2020 and everything else will keep the oil price moderately high.

Additional items that come in addition to the share value is the tax thing (I don't want to count this at all, it's an option bonus, fantastic if it happens, but don't hold your breath). I hear some people talk about 1 nok per share .... wouldn't that be fantastic ....

Additional investments whatever they may be.

The other things I am no up to date on and haven't looked into that hopefully someone can put in this thread and correct if what I put above is wrong. IOX bonds is one I think and probably some other stuff? Please fill in the missing stuff !!!

I believe TXP could easily be worth more than the share price of North in it's entirity, and that this could happen in a relatively short period of time. So I'm back in North, hold a major chunk of TXP directly which is not for sale, and will not take the chance jumping off this train.

I do have to give credit to North Management for finding TXP although they have done other things that aren't so good, and I really don't like they way they act and communicate. Let the numbers do the talking, and explain to people what the &¤&/¤#")& is going on with this tax stuff.
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badkrukan
17.12.2019 kl 18:41 5952

per Q3....

"North Energy is actively managing the portfolio offinancial investments. Total market value of theinvestment portfolio was NOK 261.1 million at the end of the third quarter. "
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 09:17 5694

This news today further confirms the increasing value of TXP. Whether or not the stock price moves in the near term, the long term prospects for company due to this weeks developements are absolutely MASSIVE.

TOUCHSTONE COHO-1 FINAL ANALYSIS ESTIMATES AOF RATE OF 46.0 MMCFD



CALGARY, ALBERTA (December 19, 2019) - Touchstone Exploration Inc. ("Touchstone", "we", "our", "us" or the "Company") (TSX, LSE: TXP) is pleased to announce the final production test results for the Coho-1 well on the Ortoire exploration block, onshore in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago (Touchstone 80% working interest operator, Heritage Petroleum Company Limited 20% working interest). The final test results have been reviewed by the Company's independent reserves and resources evaluator, GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. ("GLJ"), and the following information is intended to complement initial test results previously released by the Company on November 18, 2019.



Highlights

· Flow and build-up test results suggest an Absolute Open Flow ("AOF") rate of 46.0 million cubic feet per day ("MMCFD") (approximately 7,671 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boe/d")).

· Modelling supports initial production rates of 10 to 12 MMCFD per day (1,667 to 2,000 boe/d) gross, 8.0 to 9.6 MMCFD (1,333 to 1,600 boe/d) net.

· Gas analysis indicated pure, sweet, dry gas with 98.7% methane, no hydrogen sulfide and negligible associated liquids.

· No physical subsurface boundaries were observed during the test period

· Final 24-hour extended flow test rate was confirmed at 11.6 MMCFD (1,925 boe/d) at an average sandface drawdown of only 8.8%.

James Shipka, Chief Operating Officer, commented:



"Final testing of the Coho-1 exploration well displayed natural gas rates that greatly exceeded the Company's expectations and is expected to materially contribute to our near-term growth. With production testing and analysis completed and verified independently, the Company has a clear indication of the potential of Coho-1 and is moving forward to bring the well on stream in the first half of 2020."



As previously announced, the Coho-1 exploration well encountered material volumes of natural gas in two sand packages in the Herrera Gr7b formation. Production testing commenced on November 16, 2019, with flow tests spanning a total of 45.3 hours comprised of an initial clean-up flow period followed by an initial shut-in period and a four-step rate test, including a final extended flow test over a 24-hour period. Peak rates during flow testing were 19.8 MMCFD (3,300 boe/d) with an average rate of 11.6 MMCFD (1,925 boe/d) recorded during the final 24-hour extended flow test. A total of 17.2 million cubic feet of gas (2,867 barrels of oil equivalent) was produced during testing with 445 barrels of associated water including c. 37 barrels of load fluid. Natural gas rates observed during testing were significantly higher than the Company's pre-test expectation of 8 MMCFD while water rates were significantly lower. Compositional analysis of the produced gas indicated 98.7% pure methane, with no hydrogen sulfide content, negligible associated measurable liquids and no sand or sediment.



Following flow testing, the well was shut in for an extended pressure build-up survey which concluded on December 6, 2019. During the build-up period, the Company observed bottom hole pressures returning to pre-test levels of approximately 3,830 psi. Flow and pressure build-up measurements were analyzed by GLJ, resulting in an estimated AOF rate of 46 MMCFD (7,671 boe/d). Analysis of the data supports an initial gross production rate of 10 to 12 MMCFD (net production rate of 8.0 to 9.6 MMCFD or 1,333 to 1,600 boe/d respectively). No physical boundaries were observed during the pressure build-up test period and no skin damage was visible at the sandface.



Touchstone Exploration Inc.



Touchstone Exploration Inc. is a Calgary based company engaged in the business of acquiring interests in petroleum and natural gas rights and the exploration, development, production and sale of petroleum and natural gas. Touchstone is currently active in onshore properties located in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. The Company's common shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange under the symbol "TXP".



For further information about Touchstone, please visit our website at www.touchstoneexploration.com or contact:



Touchstone Exploration Inc.

Mr. Paul Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer Tel: +1 (403) 750-4487

Mr. James Shipka, Chief Operating Officer



Shore Capital (Nominated Advisor and Broker)

Nominated Advisor: Edward Mansfield / Daniel Bush Tel: +44 (0) 207 408 4090

Corporate Broking: Jerry Keen



Camarco (Financial PR)

Nick Hennis / Jane Glover Tel: +44 (0) 203 781 8330



Advisories



Forward-Looking Statements



Certain information provided in this announcement may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information in this announcement may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to well test results; the Company's exploration plans and strategies, including with respect to the anticipated development and timing of the Coho-1 well and ultimate production therefrom; and the sufficiency of resources and available financing to fund future completion operations. Although the Company believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because the Company can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. Certain of these risks are set out in more detail in the Company's 2018 Annual Information Form dated March 26, 2019 which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at www.sedar.com. The forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are made as of the date hereof, and except as may be required by applicable securities laws, the Company assumes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements made herein or otherwise, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.



Oil and Gas Matters



References in this announcement to production test rates and initial flow rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company.



Oil and Gas Measures



Where applicable, natural gas has been converted to barrels of oil equivalent based on six thousand cubic feet to one barrel of oil. The barrel of oil equivalent rate is based on an energy equivalent conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip, and given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of the 6:1 conversion ratio, utilizing the 6:1 conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.



Competent Persons Statement



In accordance with the AIM Rules for Companies, the technical information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and approved by James Shipka, Chief Operating Officer of Touchstone Exploration Inc. Mr. Shipka is a qualified person as defined in the London Stock Exchange's Guidance Note for Mining and Oil and Gas Companies and is a Fellow of the Geological Society of London (BGS) as well as a member of the Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologists and the Geological Society of Trinidad and Tobago. Mr. Shipka has a Bachelor of Science in Geology from the University of Calgary and has over 30 years of oil and gas exploration and development experience.
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Jæims Bånn
19.12.2019 kl 09:34 5649

Nå sitter det mange og sover!!
Bonds IOX nærmer seg løsning.
PLCS er fullbooket.
Og TXP er i ferd med å bli tidenes oljemygg.

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Svenis42
19.12.2019 kl 09:46 5617

Helt gull og få kjøpt litt og litt i north nå,samtidig som noen kjemper for og holde kursen nede.
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 09:49 5608

Can you fill in teh blanks on the North investments I am missing above?

IOX ...

Polarcus ....

The Q3 says 260 mil in investments, and 120 mil shares, so that's 2,16 Nok per share, so where and what are these investments?
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Jæims Bånn
19.12.2019 kl 10:17 5560

IOX: 1musd bonds. Skal konvertere 35% av de nå til aksjer. ( Etter planen)

Plcs: 11,38 Mill aksje. Kjøpt @ ca 1,1
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Jæims Bånn
19.12.2019 kl 11:43 5431

Er det lov å håpe på en like god gevinst ved IOXbonds nå som i 17?
Det er de samme som er omtalt i innkallingen til egm IOX nå, som var kjøper av Norths andel av Bond da.
Spennende å se hva Manzano trekker opp fra baklomma 🧐
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Odi.1
19.12.2019 kl 12:13 5348

Halvparten så er jeg godt fornøyd , JB

At noen lar muligheten til å komme seg inn under 2 kr her nå glipper er pitte fantastisk utrolig.
Det har ikke oversikt over hva North Energi sitter på av TXP, og hva TXP finner og har avtaler om i TTdad :)

Må være en av tidenes Bull aksjer på OB nå. ( da gidder jeg ikke nevne dette skatte greiene, som får komme når det kommer )

Main Ovner : https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=TXP&share=touchst_ex_di
https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/

North Energy ASA 18 Mill aksjer
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 12:14 5338

James,

Is that one 1mil USD Bond, or several 1mil USD Bonds?

And about 14 mil in Polarcus.

Still leaves a lot unaccounted for in their statement of investments value, maybe someone else has something to add?
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 12:25 5302

Good to see North reacting up with the great news from Touchstone today.

With the news from Touchstone this morning, and on Monday, one could say that North Energy is also significantly de-risked, and is not unreasonable to say that the entire stock price of North Energy will be covered by TXP itself over the next couple years.

This makes the other assets of North kind of "free" in a way which significantly lower's the risk of those, and of course the big tax back issue thrown in as a huge potential bonus without any risk if it were to happen or not happen. If it does come, Oh Mamma, that's a lot a cake.

If Touchstone goes out and gets some more funding to speed up the developements at Oritiore, which is not unlikley, as there are now several 3 to 4 million dollar wells that need to be drilled, and should be drilled, an we should drill them ASAP. If they get more money besides what they can borrow, North Energy is in a prime position as the main shareholder to be involved in that private placing (Rettet Emisjon), and in that position it is actually probably a right to be involved. I don't expect it will be difficult to fill the book given the current outlook of Touchstone after this week, and the price should be very high compared to the stock price, but as always will be at a slight discount, but who know, maybe a bette discount.

Owning shares in North Energy is a fantastic way to get exposure to Touchstone and everything good that is happening, but sitting on the side of an institutional investor and all of the benefits that to the table that we don't have through our direct positions in Touchstone. I'll keep both, and sleep very very well now.
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Slettet bruker
19.12.2019 kl 12:27 5285

NORTH may have sold, or they might even have increased their position in IOX bonds prior to the conversion. At least they had about MUSD 1 worth of bonds. That accounts for about 3% of the total shares in IOX post conversion. But then we have to assume that the conversion is taking place as a private placement. Not on a pro-rata basis.
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Odi.1
19.12.2019 kl 13:00 5212

hehe, Og dette var " bare" test brønnen til Paul Bay :))

Så finner de så mye på første forsøk, at det må plugges pga mengdene....
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 13:23 5171

Ikke plugges. De har stopped før TD mål og satt casing for å være sikker at de ikke mistet kontroll på brønnen. Kick'ene blir arfligere jo lenger ned du er. Meget klokt av de å stoppe og sette casing.

Etter casing var satt, har de logget igjennom casing med en anvansert tool fra Schlumberger. De vet hva du har boret igjennom fra kaksen, og kan se olje der. Logging er ikke like næyaktig igjennom casing, men er ganske bra. Open hul var for farlig pga av trykket.

De fant tross alt 1000 ft med pay istendenfor 200 som de hadde tankt, så dette er bare helt villt. Helt greit å stoppe før planlagt TD, kan prøve å gå dypere med en annen brønn med an annen rig og utstyr som kan håndtere forholdene. Dette er helt villt, og de har håndtert det veldig bra.

Kan teneks at de må lage en annen plan nå og gjerne skaffe andre utstyr en opprinelig plannlagt for testing av brønnen. Det blir ommfatende, men på en god måte.
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PetroMonkey
19.12.2019 kl 13:25 5162

Hi Bæærnt, long time .....

Thanks for the info, still leaves a lot of "investment" unexplained. Is it possible that they count part of the tax thing as an investement?

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erinho
19.12.2019 kl 13:30 5146

Solgte meg ut med pene 20% på 3 dager.
Har større tro på høyere og tryggere avkastning direkte i TXP til neste år, så forsøker å få litt billige aksjer der i ettermiddag.
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Odi.1
19.12.2019 kl 13:35 5125

Helt greit det, fine trade det, god omsetning i dag til å være North, dog får du ikke noe billig inngang om de får godkjent 120 Millioner inn på kontoen i tillegg til de andre investeringene.
Alt snur positivt nå for North Energy , kun Reach som lagger , dog har dem promotert de enorme rammeavtalene de sitter med , + at de holder asur driftskostnadene, som er alfa omega. Lys i tunellen for Reach også.

North Energy er Bull nå... ( stikkord TXP Hovd investor der )
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Svenis42
19.12.2019 kl 13:42 5108

Og der kom det ei stor sperre på 1.49
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Odi.1
19.12.2019 kl 14:25 5039

Meget godt tegn... :) BULL

Kommer det melding om COHO på koblet Pipeline, så smeller North over 2 kr, tipper jeg.
Var det ikke kun 3 KM fra ? eller husker jeg feil... mm

" "These positive well test results represent a new era for Touchstone as we expect to add significant natural gas volumes to our production base. The results outline the opportunities that still exist for onshore Trinidad exploration and position Touchstone to become a top three onshore petroleum producer. It must also be noted that the Coho-1 well is in the smallest prospect of the Ortoire exploration program. The Company will proceed to tie in the well through a 3-kilometre pipeline to an existing production facility that has capacity in excess of this well’s estimated production rates. We anticipate bringing the well on production during the first half of 2020."

Slik var det :)
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kim2002
19.12.2019 kl 16:43 4890

Flott dag for North, med stor omsetning til relativt høy kurs, selv om noen vil holde kursen nede. Hvorfor mon tro???
Nå kan vi bare glede oss til fortsettelsen, her er det mange triggere. TXP er bankers. Skatteoppgjøret?. IOX bonds? Reach?
Investeringene ser endelig ut til å bære frukter.
Håper ledelsen kommer med en oppdatering på hvilke investeringer som er gjort, (størrelsesorden)

Lykke til alle tålmodige. Dette fortjener vi faktisk :)
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Svenis42
19.12.2019 kl 17:06 4847

Kommer nok ikke noe oppdatering før q4 rapport.I mine øyne er det både riktig og smart så lenge du driver med investeringer som andre kan påvirke.
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badkrukan
19.12.2019 kl 19:38 4697

Jag elsker vad jag ser i txp. Klart det er smart at kjøpe der... men stoler du på deg selv når du skal selge? Jag har en tendens at selge for tidlig, så jag er takknemlig at north hjelper meg med det når dagen kommer. Reach blir veldig f7n stabil gjeldsfri aksje "years to come"...... verken north eller txp selges i 2020....
Men la de som vil selge selge, du kan ikke bremse markedet evig. Hold
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oilbiz
19.12.2019 kl 20:43 4623

Jeg er veldig nysgjerrig på estimatene fra det store oljefunnet, kursen kan mangedobles
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 08:15 4436

Over 5 mil aksjer txp omsatt rundt 20 i går også i GB. Nivået til neste løft er meget bull.
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Slettet bruker
20.12.2019 kl 09:08 4364

Det er lidt skuffende der ikke har været nogen insider køb her i North, med de lave kurser der har været. Det er lidt mystisk.
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 09:20 4328

tja, de brukte hele utbyttet sitt til Aksjer , pris 1,60
En må ha litt magemål her :)
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Svenis42
20.12.2019 kl 09:27 4297

Kan ha noe med skattesaken og gjøre også,hadde ikke sett pent ut med innsidekjøp og mld om løsning på skattesaken dagen etter.
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badkrukan
20.12.2019 kl 09:28 4295

nesten 60% av selskapet er insideeid.
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Svenis42
20.12.2019 kl 10:41 4216

Nei ikke innside eid.men topp 20 eier 60%
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 11:35 4166

Hadde vel vert ok om dokumentasjonen kom fra Myndighetene dagen etter ?
Det hadde vel bare vert for Ledelsen å vist til når dette kom til dem …
Alt det andre er jo kommunisert ut tidligere…
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 11:48 4145

Fortsetter dette "Gode" i TXP og Paul blir værende der, noe som er mest sannsynlig da han har vært ivrig kjøper av Txp aksjer-,
så er det ikke umulig at aksjeposten for North kan bety 1 kr pr aksje i Txp aksjer, ( 119 mil )
Det er mange brønner igjen med STORE potensialer i for Txp. At vi også om ett år og to kan få ut 50 øre-1 kr pr aksje i utbytte er absolutt ikke umulig.
Tenk tanken nå, brønn etter brønn treffer , Reach melder om større aktivitet for Rammeavtalen, og skatten ^^120 Millioner blir godkjent ?? :))

North kan "plutselig" stå i 5 kr her... Helt ufattelig at dette handles under 2 kr er nå min mening.
Verdi på q3 : kr 2,40 ( da er ikke den plasserte skatten med )
Siden da har Reach sunket, PLCs steget opp , Txp har steget , IOX har steget … KEMNEREN HAR SOVNET !!! ( DEN STATLIGE MANN/KVINNE , SELVSAKT ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOVZBOMx1Kg
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Svenis42
20.12.2019 kl 12:16 4107

Merkelig at txp raser nedover igjen etter disse nyhetene
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Jæims Bånn
20.12.2019 kl 12:27 4088

Ja, det er ikke lett å forstå.
Har vært et kolossalt volum denne uka, så vi bør kunne se et nytt navn på topplisten ved neste oppdatering
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 12:29 4081

Raser er vel å ta hardt i med kun 800 k aksjer? Se heller på volumet rundt AVA range 20/22 :)
Helt normalt med verdisikring for tradere, det gjør bare sundt for aktivitetene i aksjen, benytt anledningen må bli rådet...
Fortsatt snadder mulighet for billig inngang i TXP/ North Energy …. Mye..mye...mye... På gang :)
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Odi.1
20.12.2019 kl 12:31 4074

Hadde vært greit å vist hvor mye North har lov å sitte på totalt i TXP?? , er ikke helt til å forstå seg på dette CANADA lov verket...
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PetroMonkey
02.01.2020 kl 09:32 3468

Why do you talk about rules in Canada, North has shares in TXP in London on the AIM.
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