GOGL November 2
Chinese Iron Ore Imports: Holding Strong
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports have grown robustly in the year to date, and are currently projected to reach 1,074mt in full year 2017, accounting for more than 70% of global seaborne iron ore imports and around a third of the expected growth in total seaborne dry bulk trade this year. What factors have driven the firm expansion in China’s seaborne iron ore imports in 2017 so far?
As Hard As Iron
After a period of slower growth in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports in 2015, expansion picked up in 2016 and imports have continued to grow firmly so far this year, rising 7% y-o-y to 804mt in the first nine months of 2017. This growth has continued to be principally driven by exports from Australia and Brazil, which have accounted for more than 75% of China’s import growth in the year to date between them, a similar proportion to last year. However, a number of other suppliers have also increased exports to China, with China’s imports from India more than doubling in the year to date and imports from Iran and Sierra Leone growing by more than 35%.
Striking While The Iron Is Hot
The overall growth in Chinese iron ore imports has partly been supported by a c.3-4% increase in China’s steel consumption in 2017, whilst supply-side reform in China’s steel industry has also played a major role. The Chinese government, aiming to improve profitability in the steel sector and reduce air pollution, reportedly shut down more than 100mtpa of ‘illegal’ induction furnace steel capacity in 1H 2017. As a result, and against a backdrop of improved demand, steel prices rose firmly and the country’s major steel plants have subsequently ramped up production to take advantage. Official data, which does not include ‘illegal’ capacity, shows a 6% y-o-y increase in China’s steel production so far this year, although underlying steel production growth is likely to have been more modest, at around 3% when the closure of ‘illegal’ capacity is taken into account. As China’s ‘illegal’ induction furnaces typically consumed relatively low grade domestic iron ore and scrap, whilst the major steel plants generally use higher grade imported iron ore, China’s reliance on imports is likely to have increased further this year, having reached a reported 87% in 2016.
Acid Test?
However, growth in Chinese iron ore imports could slow somewhat towards the end of the year as a result of planned steel production cuts, although the extent of such an impact is uncertain. Government policies to reduce air pollution are expected to cut steel production by up to 50% during the winter months in a number of cities including Tangshan, China’s largest steel producing city. There are a range of scenarios, with the general consensus suggesting a slight decline in production in the period between November and March, although some reports suggest a y-o-y decline of as much as 8%.
So, while there is uncertainty over the impact of steel production cuts over the winter, China’s seaborne iron ore imports still look set to have expanded robustly in full year 2017. Overall, it seems that China’s supply-side reform in the steel industry has been a key driver of firm growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade this year.
Source: Clarkson Research
Leveret af Google OversætOversæt
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports have grown robustly in the year to date, and are currently projected to reach 1,074mt in full year 2017, accounting for more than 70% of global seaborne iron ore imports and around a third of the expected growth in total seaborne dry bulk trade this year. What factors have driven the firm expansion in China’s seaborne iron ore imports in 2017 so far?
As Hard As Iron
After a period of slower growth in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports in 2015, expansion picked up in 2016 and imports have continued to grow firmly so far this year, rising 7% y-o-y to 804mt in the first nine months of 2017. This growth has continued to be principally driven by exports from Australia and Brazil, which have accounted for more than 75% of China’s import growth in the year to date between them, a similar proportion to last year. However, a number of other suppliers have also increased exports to China, with China’s imports from India more than doubling in the year to date and imports from Iran and Sierra Leone growing by more than 35%.
Striking While The Iron Is Hot
The overall growth in Chinese iron ore imports has partly been supported by a c.3-4% increase in China’s steel consumption in 2017, whilst supply-side reform in China’s steel industry has also played a major role. The Chinese government, aiming to improve profitability in the steel sector and reduce air pollution, reportedly shut down more than 100mtpa of ‘illegal’ induction furnace steel capacity in 1H 2017. As a result, and against a backdrop of improved demand, steel prices rose firmly and the country’s major steel plants have subsequently ramped up production to take advantage. Official data, which does not include ‘illegal’ capacity, shows a 6% y-o-y increase in China’s steel production so far this year, although underlying steel production growth is likely to have been more modest, at around 3% when the closure of ‘illegal’ capacity is taken into account. As China’s ‘illegal’ induction furnaces typically consumed relatively low grade domestic iron ore and scrap, whilst the major steel plants generally use higher grade imported iron ore, China’s reliance on imports is likely to have increased further this year, having reached a reported 87% in 2016.
Acid Test?
However, growth in Chinese iron ore imports could slow somewhat towards the end of the year as a result of planned steel production cuts, although the extent of such an impact is uncertain. Government policies to reduce air pollution are expected to cut steel production by up to 50% during the winter months in a number of cities including Tangshan, China’s largest steel producing city. There are a range of scenarios, with the general consensus suggesting a slight decline in production in the period between November and March, although some reports suggest a y-o-y decline of as much as 8%.
So, while there is uncertainty over the impact of steel production cuts over the winter, China’s seaborne iron ore imports still look set to have expanded robustly in full year 2017. Overall, it seems that China’s supply-side reform in the steel industry has been a key driver of firm growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade this year.
Source: Clarkson Research
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Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:56
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Bassefix
25.11.2017 kl 21:06
12959
Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Loses Traction
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
Cape paper failed to gain any traction Friday despite the index still making modest gains as the week drew to a close. The fact the FFAs held their ground over a very quiet day could be construed as bullish but only further physical news next week will give us something more solid to hold on to. Good weekend to all.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
The trend of the last few days continued yesterday with buying interest early on before liquidity dried up in the afternoon. Prompt periods were the early focus with December trading from $11000-11200 and the q1 traded $10000 upto 10250. With the index slowly seeing gains we wait for next week to see if this push continues.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax paper was slightly stronger again yesterday as we saw bid support down the curve but struggled again to really make the next big move. Dec was trading $10800-$10850 throughout the day with Q1 trading $9750 and the Cal 18 being paid $9950. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Another very quiet day with regards to the handysize paper, with little to report. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Full Report
Source: Freight Investors International (FIS)
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
Cape paper failed to gain any traction Friday despite the index still making modest gains as the week drew to a close. The fact the FFAs held their ground over a very quiet day could be construed as bullish but only further physical news next week will give us something more solid to hold on to. Good weekend to all.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
The trend of the last few days continued yesterday with buying interest early on before liquidity dried up in the afternoon. Prompt periods were the early focus with December trading from $11000-11200 and the q1 traded $10000 upto 10250. With the index slowly seeing gains we wait for next week to see if this push continues.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax paper was slightly stronger again yesterday as we saw bid support down the curve but struggled again to really make the next big move. Dec was trading $10800-$10850 throughout the day with Q1 trading $9750 and the Cal 18 being paid $9950. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Another very quiet day with regards to the handysize paper, with little to report. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Full Report
Source: Freight Investors International (FIS)
Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 09:23
12576
Her er et klipp fra en morgenrapport fra SB1M:
"DRY BULK: Cape spot rates rose 13% to usd 27 576/day last week, which is a new ytd high, and the highest on record since 2014. FFA rates both for CAL 2018 and Q1 2018 rose 1% and 2% respectively w/w. 1 year TC rate was up 3% w/w to usd 17 250/day. Newbuild values for Cape Size/Pananamx and Handymax were up usd 0,5’’. Current Capesize newbuild price is quoted at usd 44 mill."
"DRY BULK: Cape spot rates rose 13% to usd 27 576/day last week, which is a new ytd high, and the highest on record since 2014. FFA rates both for CAL 2018 and Q1 2018 rose 1% and 2% respectively w/w. 1 year TC rate was up 3% w/w to usd 17 250/day. Newbuild values for Cape Size/Pananamx and Handymax were up usd 0,5’’. Current Capesize newbuild price is quoted at usd 44 mill."
Wilde
27.11.2017 kl 10:13
12484
https://www.dn.no/nyheter/2017/11/27/0841/Bors/slik-satser-aksjeekspertene-na
Dette er selskapene som deltagerne i DNs porteføljekonkurranse har troen på i den kommende uken:
Ukeporteføljene
DN følger hver uke oppdateringene i porteføljene til Sparebank 1 Markets, DNB Markets og Arctic Fund Management.
Aktørenes porteføljevalg blir publisert på DN.no hver mandag morgen.
DNB Markets
Inn: Ingen endring
Ut: Yara
Portefølje: Golden Ocean Group, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Grieg Seafood, Aker, Storebrand, Gjensidige Forsikring, Kværner, TGS, Statoil
Sparebank 1 Markets
Inn: Fjord1
Ut: Ingen endringer
Portefølje: Yara, Orkla, Kongsberggruppen, Golden Ocean Group, DNO, Europris, Pareto Bank, Fjord1
Arctic Fund Management
Inn: Golden Ocean Group
Ut: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Portefølje: Telenor, Gjensidige Forsikring, Atea, B2 Holding, Aker, Entra, Yara, Golden Ocean Group
Dette er selskapene som deltagerne i DNs porteføljekonkurranse har troen på i den kommende uken:
Ukeporteføljene
DN følger hver uke oppdateringene i porteføljene til Sparebank 1 Markets, DNB Markets og Arctic Fund Management.
Aktørenes porteføljevalg blir publisert på DN.no hver mandag morgen.
DNB Markets
Inn: Ingen endring
Ut: Yara
Portefølje: Golden Ocean Group, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Grieg Seafood, Aker, Storebrand, Gjensidige Forsikring, Kværner, TGS, Statoil
Sparebank 1 Markets
Inn: Fjord1
Ut: Ingen endringer
Portefølje: Yara, Orkla, Kongsberggruppen, Golden Ocean Group, DNO, Europris, Pareto Bank, Fjord1
Arctic Fund Management
Inn: Golden Ocean Group
Ut: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Portefølje: Telenor, Gjensidige Forsikring, Atea, B2 Holding, Aker, Entra, Yara, Golden Ocean Group
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 11:42
12289
Freight rates surge on commodity boom
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/11/2017
Shipping freight rates are rising on the back of the commodity boom. The Baltic dry bulk, tanker segment, and other freight indices are rising fast for the past few months, following good demand in India, China, the Atlantic market, and the Gulf coast. The Baltic dry bulk index is up 45.3 per cent this year even after a small correction in the past few weeks, and has achieved more than a three-year-high level.
The Baltic dirty tanker index, reflecting movements in crude oil, in the past three months went up 33 per cent after a surge in Brent oil on expectations of production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPECs), and geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
Similar movements have been seen in the S&P Platts shipping freight indices, which hold good for routes on which Indian ports fall. The past two weeks have seen some correction from higher levels but the consensus of freight agents, analysts, and shipping companies is that that trends in the shipping freight market are expected to remain firm.
Will it help shipping companies to revive their fortunes? That depends upon how many companies are in a position to cash in on high freights.
An executive of Shipping Corporation of India said, “Many companies have seen margins improving but it’s not significant and shipping companies are still not breaking even.” He said there was a lot of instability and volatility in the market. The past two weeks’ small correction shows while overall trends will remain firm in the case of freight, movements will not be one-sided.
Pradeep Rajan, senior managing editor, Asia Pacific Shipping & Freight, S&P Global Platts, said: “The dry bulk freight rates had registered a spike during September and October after steadily rising since the beginning of the second half of 2017 in the Asia-Pacific mainly due to the demand for coal in China and India.”
A CARE Ratings report on power plants says: “Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been highly affected by the coal-shortage.”
The tanker market, another important segment, has also seen demand despite the production cuts by OPEC and reports of the cuts being extended. “The rates from the start of the second half of the year have found support mainly due to the increase in the movement of crude oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia,” said Rajan.
Due to a wide gap in prices of Brent and WTI oil, some imports coming from Gulf nations have been replaced by US shale oil because prices of WTI oil are lower by 10-12 per cent. Rising imports from the US are keeping very large crude carriers employed for longer durations.
Internationally, even a strong Atlantic market, mainly due to a very robust grain market on the east coast of South America and the US Gulf Coast, drew vessels from the Asia-Pacific into the Western hemisphere, which tightened ship availability in the Asia-Pacific region. So while on the one hand vessels in the dry bulk segment were in demand, the slow entry of newly-built vessels into the market is curtailing the addition of more tonnage. The past two weeks’ correction from the peak has been attributed to a slow grain market in the Atlantic.
Apart from the coal demand in India, Rajan said, “The burgeoning Indian exports of steel, iron ore, pellets etc have provided ample demand for the Supramax class vessels.” A Shipping Corporation official said, “China is under watch as coal and ore import demand is expected to go up.”
Source: Business Standard
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/11/2017
Shipping freight rates are rising on the back of the commodity boom. The Baltic dry bulk, tanker segment, and other freight indices are rising fast for the past few months, following good demand in India, China, the Atlantic market, and the Gulf coast. The Baltic dry bulk index is up 45.3 per cent this year even after a small correction in the past few weeks, and has achieved more than a three-year-high level.
The Baltic dirty tanker index, reflecting movements in crude oil, in the past three months went up 33 per cent after a surge in Brent oil on expectations of production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPECs), and geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
Similar movements have been seen in the S&P Platts shipping freight indices, which hold good for routes on which Indian ports fall. The past two weeks have seen some correction from higher levels but the consensus of freight agents, analysts, and shipping companies is that that trends in the shipping freight market are expected to remain firm.
Will it help shipping companies to revive their fortunes? That depends upon how many companies are in a position to cash in on high freights.
An executive of Shipping Corporation of India said, “Many companies have seen margins improving but it’s not significant and shipping companies are still not breaking even.” He said there was a lot of instability and volatility in the market. The past two weeks’ small correction shows while overall trends will remain firm in the case of freight, movements will not be one-sided.
Pradeep Rajan, senior managing editor, Asia Pacific Shipping & Freight, S&P Global Platts, said: “The dry bulk freight rates had registered a spike during September and October after steadily rising since the beginning of the second half of 2017 in the Asia-Pacific mainly due to the demand for coal in China and India.”
A CARE Ratings report on power plants says: “Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been highly affected by the coal-shortage.”
The tanker market, another important segment, has also seen demand despite the production cuts by OPEC and reports of the cuts being extended. “The rates from the start of the second half of the year have found support mainly due to the increase in the movement of crude oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia,” said Rajan.
Due to a wide gap in prices of Brent and WTI oil, some imports coming from Gulf nations have been replaced by US shale oil because prices of WTI oil are lower by 10-12 per cent. Rising imports from the US are keeping very large crude carriers employed for longer durations.
Internationally, even a strong Atlantic market, mainly due to a very robust grain market on the east coast of South America and the US Gulf Coast, drew vessels from the Asia-Pacific into the Western hemisphere, which tightened ship availability in the Asia-Pacific region. So while on the one hand vessels in the dry bulk segment were in demand, the slow entry of newly-built vessels into the market is curtailing the addition of more tonnage. The past two weeks’ correction from the peak has been attributed to a slow grain market in the Atlantic.
Apart from the coal demand in India, Rajan said, “The burgeoning Indian exports of steel, iron ore, pellets etc have provided ample demand for the Supramax class vessels.” A Shipping Corporation official said, “China is under watch as coal and ore import demand is expected to go up.”
Source: Business Standard
jama
27.11.2017 kl 13:24
12122
Mandag 27.11.2017.
Ratene stiger og stiger. Dette går veien
----------
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +2,6% TIL USD 23.129/DAG
12:02
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 2,6 prosent til 23.129 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News mandag.
Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Finans, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
Ratene stiger og stiger. Dette går veien
----------
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +2,6% TIL USD 23.129/DAG
12:02
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 2,6 prosent til 23.129 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News mandag.
Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Finans, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 13:35
12146
Da ser det ut til at det blir positive tall i morgen også:
FFA: Capes starting week off with a bang hitting new highs across curve. PMX, SMX both up a little but finding sellers pre-index.
FFA: Capes starting week off with a bang hitting new highs across curve. PMX, SMX both up a little but finding sellers pre-index.
KJEPET
27.11.2017 kl 13:50
12037
Som antatt dette. Kursen er priset til kjempekrakk ratene i Q1 (snitt rundt $12.000). Det kommer ikke til å skje, tror jeg. Nå er fokus på utbyttet, og slik det ser ut nå, tror jeg på et lite utbytte allerede fra Q4:-)
Mange virker overrasket over de sterke ratene om dagen, det overrasker meg. Dere følger sikkert med på armeringsjernprisen også. Pang! opp nesten 4 % i dag.
Mange virker overrasket over de sterke ratene om dagen, det overrasker meg. Dere følger sikkert med på armeringsjernprisen også. Pang! opp nesten 4 % i dag.
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 14:07
12006
SHIPPING: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSET STIGER 1,3 PCT. TIL 1477 POINT
14:04
Tørlastindekset Baltic Dry stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Det fremgår af data fra Bloomberg
14:04
Tørlastindekset Baltic Dry stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Det fremgår af data fra Bloomberg
Redigert 27.11.2017 kl 14:19
Du må logge inn for å svare
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 14:19
11964
Baltic Dry-indekset stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Alle tiders laveste niveau i 290 point blev nået den 10. og 11. februar i 2016. Alle tiders højeste niveau blev nået 20. maj 2008, hvor indekset nåede 11.793 point.
Raterne på Panamax-skibe stiger 0,3 pct. til 10.419 dollar per dag. Antalsmæssigt udgør Supramax det største antal hos D/S Norden, og her blev det til en stigning på 0,2 pct. til 10.343 dollar per dag. Raterne på de store Capesize-skibe, der især fragter jernmalm, stiger 2,6 pct. til 23.129 dollar per dag og raterne på de små Handysize-skibe taber 0,1 pct. til 9.047 dollar per dag.
Raterne på Panamax-skibe stiger 0,3 pct. til 10.419 dollar per dag. Antalsmæssigt udgør Supramax det største antal hos D/S Norden, og her blev det til en stigning på 0,2 pct. til 10.343 dollar per dag. Raterne på de store Capesize-skibe, der især fragter jernmalm, stiger 2,6 pct. til 23.129 dollar per dag og raterne på de små Handysize-skibe taber 0,1 pct. til 9.047 dollar per dag.
Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 17:14
11746
Golden Ocean Group Ltd. breached its 50 day moving average in a Bullish Manner : GOGL-US : November 27, 2017
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d69f83fe-dd5e-37c9-9840-c6f8bf745c22/golden-ocean-group-ltd..html
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d69f83fe-dd5e-37c9-9840-c6f8bf745c22/golden-ocean-group-ltd..html
KJEPET
27.11.2017 kl 18:12
12284
Endelig har noe våknet å forstått hva som er under utvikling. Om man blir overrasket over økende rater hele tiden så har man kanskje ikke forstått fremtidsbildet. Clarksons Platou har nå endelig kommet på banen og forstått realitetene.
http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/dry-bulk-shipping-rates-could-surprise-in-q1-2018-clarksons-platou.html
http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/asia/dry-bulk-shipping-rates-could-surprise-in-q1-2018-clarksons-platou.html
Stiger videre i US, blir oppgang igjen i morgen på OSE
Gull i pungen
28.11.2017 kl 10:25
11786
Forvalter Alexander Larstedt Lager satser på bulk.
Arctic Fund Management tar denne uken inn tørrbulkrederiet Golden Ocean Group i sin anbefalte portefølje.
Se dagens utgave av DN
Arctic Fund Management tar denne uken inn tørrbulkrederiet Golden Ocean Group i sin anbefalte portefølje.
Se dagens utgave av DN
Redigert 28.11.2017 kl 10:26
Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
28.11.2017 kl 10:34
11755
Blir spennende å se om vi bryter $25.000/day for TC5 allerede i dag.
Sykt at vi ikke er godt opp på 70 tallet nå...men men tolmodighet vil gi god avkastning her
Bassefix
28.11.2017 kl 11:31
11671
Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Moves North
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 28/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
A very positive day for the big ships as rates moved north in both basins. Weather delays in China forced the Asussie miners to come to the market to replace delayed ships and the C5 gapped up to 9.25-9.30 with reports of a very prompt unit achieving 9.80/mt. The C3 was also very solid with rates picking up to 19.50 with 5-7 ships fixed. The front end of the paper charged up and remains a steep discount to the index suggesting that further paper gains could and should be made. all in all, a very positive start to the week.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
Early support spilled over into some firmer buying midmorning on Panamax paper which was largely attributed to the firmer cape sentiment. Dec and Q1 traded up to $11400 and $10450 respectively while Cal18 printed $10800 high. Despite prompts slipping off a touch after a slightly disappointing index we saw buyers return at the close leaving us on the day.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Relatively quiet day on Supramax paper with levels holding initially but softening a touch post index with Dec trading down to $10700 and Q1 slipping from $9700 to $9600. Further out there was little change with Cal18 printing $9950.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Quiet day on handy paper with no reported trading.
Full Report
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 28/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
A very positive day for the big ships as rates moved north in both basins. Weather delays in China forced the Asussie miners to come to the market to replace delayed ships and the C5 gapped up to 9.25-9.30 with reports of a very prompt unit achieving 9.80/mt. The C3 was also very solid with rates picking up to 19.50 with 5-7 ships fixed. The front end of the paper charged up and remains a steep discount to the index suggesting that further paper gains could and should be made. all in all, a very positive start to the week.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
Early support spilled over into some firmer buying midmorning on Panamax paper which was largely attributed to the firmer cape sentiment. Dec and Q1 traded up to $11400 and $10450 respectively while Cal18 printed $10800 high. Despite prompts slipping off a touch after a slightly disappointing index we saw buyers return at the close leaving us on the day.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Relatively quiet day on Supramax paper with levels holding initially but softening a touch post index with Dec trading down to $10700 and Q1 slipping from $9700 to $9600. Further out there was little change with Cal18 printing $9950.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Quiet day on handy paper with no reported trading.
Full Report
KJEPET
28.11.2017 kl 12:12
11520
Herlig, da brøt TC5 $25.000/day :-). GOGL håver inn, og skal bli feite og gode på utbyttene.
Får håpe MSI klarer å presse kursen ned under 60.- snart. Det er jo svært begrenset med kjøpere. Har forsatt litt midler som skal inn i GOGL.
Får håpe MSI klarer å presse kursen ned under 60.- snart. Det er jo svært begrenset med kjøpere. Har forsatt litt midler som skal inn i GOGL.
Sa2ri
28.11.2017 kl 14:35
11374
Synes det er på sin plass å trekke frem igjen en artikkel fra FA tidligere i høst (18.10), hvor Clarkson Platou Securities sine shipping analytikere, Frode Mørkedal og Herman Hildan, ble sitert på følgende:
"..... ser positivt på fremtiden for GOGL, selv om de på kort sikt ser en risiko for ratefall hvis kineserne stenger ned deler av sin stålproduksjon i vinter.
Hvis dagratene kommer opp i 24.000 dollar for capezise-carriere vil rederiet tjene 1,48 dollar pr. aksje og ha en fri kontantstrøm på 1,60 dollar pr. aksje, noe som i følge analytikerne kan forsvare en betydelig høyere aksjekurs enn i dag."
18. oktober svingte kursen i GOGL mellom 67.800 og 66.100.
"..... ser positivt på fremtiden for GOGL, selv om de på kort sikt ser en risiko for ratefall hvis kineserne stenger ned deler av sin stålproduksjon i vinter.
Hvis dagratene kommer opp i 24.000 dollar for capezise-carriere vil rederiet tjene 1,48 dollar pr. aksje og ha en fri kontantstrøm på 1,60 dollar pr. aksje, noe som i følge analytikerne kan forsvare en betydelig høyere aksjekurs enn i dag."
18. oktober svingte kursen i GOGL mellom 67.800 og 66.100.
Med disse ratene kan ikke GOGL gå mot strømmen så veldig lenge, og når det snur blir oppgangen heftig tror jeg. Markedet våkner snart inkl meglerhus med oppgraderte kursmål :-)
Sa2ri
28.11.2017 kl 14:59
11332
Vi kan jo ta med denne her også, som lover bra for ytterligere oppgang i morgen:
FFA: Capes better from the start with Dec trading firmer early Asian time and then continuing to push European open. PMX weaker at start but attracting buying on dips leaving us better across the curve as we approach index.
FFA: Capes better from the start with Dec trading firmer early Asian time and then continuing to push European open. PMX weaker at start but attracting buying on dips leaving us better across the curve as we approach index.
Takk Sa2ri - blir snart "ketchup effekten" her med rater som går mot 30.000 :-)
Sa2ri
28.11.2017 kl 16:08
11246
Klipper inn noe PAS akkurat sendte ut (Shipping Weekly):
Iron ore still in store
Third quarter reporting season has now only a handful of names left before coming to an end. Last week saw the majority of names in the Fredriksen-system releasing their numbers, but also other names such as SBLK, DSX and BWLPG. Last week was also busy from an S&P perspective, with four vintage VLCCs changing hands on Friday. Three from DHT and one from Euronav, with all four rumoured to go to Ridgebury. In dry bulk, what was once a depressed January in the late October paper markets, has now shifted to something more positive – with FFAs now set at USD ~15,750/day; an increase of more than 35%
Reporting season nearly done
Reporting season is now close to finished, with only Golar LNG and Songa Bulk left in our calendars. Last week was very crowded, with many names from the Fredriksen-system releasing their numbers. FLNG reported results in line with our estimates of a USD 0.01 loss per share. More interesting was however the financing now secured for the company’s three first newbuilds; including optionality for an additional vessels and flexible collateral. GOGL delivered third quarter results fairly in line with consensus; returning to black numbers on an unadjusted basis, but with no major news. FRO delivered an adj. EPS of negative USD 0.11, but above our estimate of negative USD 0.13; although average TCE earnings were lower than expected due to increased vessel waiting time. The last Fredriksen-entity, SFL, also reported results in line with estimates, and commented that it is very much focused on deal flow and building the portfolio; especially after finalizing Seadrill restructuring terms.
Fleet renewal on the agenda
After some subdued activity in the S&P markets, Friday last week saw considerable deal flow. Euronav sold its 2001-built Artois for a price of USD 22m while DHT sold its three oldest ships, the Eagle (2002), Utah (2001) and Utik (2001) for USD 66.5m. The two latter ships were part of the BW-fleet that DHT merged with earlier this year. All four VLCCs were sold as a part of the companies’ efforts to renew their fleets; rumoured to have gone to Ridgebury Tankers, which has previously also invested in vintage VLCCs through Ridgebury V4 – and is believed to have raised equity in a new vehicle to finalize this transaction. There has also been a fair amount of scrapping recorded, with one VLCC and two capesize hitting the shores over last ten days; all fetching close to USD 440 per ldt.
Chinese November iron ore imports set to normalize
After China’s somewhat disappointing iron ore imports, November is set to come in close to the monthly average YTD. Even though winter curbs on steel production are now in full effect, the appetite for iron ore remains strong and prices have surged 15% in November. There has also been a shift in preference towards high quality ore, and the relative spreads between high and standard quality ore are now at record levels. Higher quality ore allows for stable steel output even though furnaces are closing down, and with the highest quality ore coming from Brazil this should have a positive effect on tonne mile demand. More on this on page two of this report.
Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):
Eirik Haavaldsen, +47 24 13 21 20, eirik.haavaldsen@paretosec.com
Fredrik Stene, +47 24 13 21 36, Fredrik.Stene@paretosec.com
Iron ore still in store
Third quarter reporting season has now only a handful of names left before coming to an end. Last week saw the majority of names in the Fredriksen-system releasing their numbers, but also other names such as SBLK, DSX and BWLPG. Last week was also busy from an S&P perspective, with four vintage VLCCs changing hands on Friday. Three from DHT and one from Euronav, with all four rumoured to go to Ridgebury. In dry bulk, what was once a depressed January in the late October paper markets, has now shifted to something more positive – with FFAs now set at USD ~15,750/day; an increase of more than 35%
Reporting season nearly done
Reporting season is now close to finished, with only Golar LNG and Songa Bulk left in our calendars. Last week was very crowded, with many names from the Fredriksen-system releasing their numbers. FLNG reported results in line with our estimates of a USD 0.01 loss per share. More interesting was however the financing now secured for the company’s three first newbuilds; including optionality for an additional vessels and flexible collateral. GOGL delivered third quarter results fairly in line with consensus; returning to black numbers on an unadjusted basis, but with no major news. FRO delivered an adj. EPS of negative USD 0.11, but above our estimate of negative USD 0.13; although average TCE earnings were lower than expected due to increased vessel waiting time. The last Fredriksen-entity, SFL, also reported results in line with estimates, and commented that it is very much focused on deal flow and building the portfolio; especially after finalizing Seadrill restructuring terms.
Fleet renewal on the agenda
After some subdued activity in the S&P markets, Friday last week saw considerable deal flow. Euronav sold its 2001-built Artois for a price of USD 22m while DHT sold its three oldest ships, the Eagle (2002), Utah (2001) and Utik (2001) for USD 66.5m. The two latter ships were part of the BW-fleet that DHT merged with earlier this year. All four VLCCs were sold as a part of the companies’ efforts to renew their fleets; rumoured to have gone to Ridgebury Tankers, which has previously also invested in vintage VLCCs through Ridgebury V4 – and is believed to have raised equity in a new vehicle to finalize this transaction. There has also been a fair amount of scrapping recorded, with one VLCC and two capesize hitting the shores over last ten days; all fetching close to USD 440 per ldt.
Chinese November iron ore imports set to normalize
After China’s somewhat disappointing iron ore imports, November is set to come in close to the monthly average YTD. Even though winter curbs on steel production are now in full effect, the appetite for iron ore remains strong and prices have surged 15% in November. There has also been a shift in preference towards high quality ore, and the relative spreads between high and standard quality ore are now at record levels. Higher quality ore allows for stable steel output even though furnaces are closing down, and with the highest quality ore coming from Brazil this should have a positive effect on tonne mile demand. More on this on page two of this report.
Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):
Eirik Haavaldsen, +47 24 13 21 20, eirik.haavaldsen@paretosec.com
Fredrik Stene, +47 24 13 21 36, Fredrik.Stene@paretosec.com
Forstår ikke dette, ned på ose og Gogl videre ned i us:(....noen som ikke kan regne??
Gunnis O Brian
28.11.2017 kl 18:36
11098
Jeg vil tippe at shorterene ikke har fått nok billige aksjer her hjemme og signaliserer til Knoll og Tott på Toten , helt fra USA ,at de må selge ettersom aksjen skal videre ned her hjemme. De store aksjonærene selger ikke nå, så det er de små de venter på.(De som ikke skjønner at det ikke er børsen i us som styrer dette.)
Bare å ønske de god jul.
Bare å ønske de god jul.
really
28.11.2017 kl 18:54
11063
Men det er da bare fint om fiffen hjelper oss å tjene penger. Få den nedover så jeg får fylt opp igjen.
Det blir litt kjedelig å bare sitte long, en må trade litt også.
Det blir litt kjedelig å bare sitte long, en må trade litt også.
Sa2ri
28.11.2017 kl 20:26
10898
FFA:Cape index came in better than expected but market drifted on little to no PM volume. Panamax touch better but off the AM highs.
Slutt USA 8.02 x kurs 8.54= kurs nok 68.49
KJEPET
28.11.2017 kl 22:26
10790
Bytt ut dollar kursen med 8.24.-. Da får du nok mer riktig sluttkurs (66,08 NOK) på GOGL:-)
Sorry/takk og helt riktig Kjepet! La seg da på norsk kurs :-)
Redigert 28.11.2017 kl 22:54
Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
28.11.2017 kl 22:49
11023
Si meg... har dollarkursen noe å si for prisingen av GOGL ? Utbytte (når det kommer) utbetales jo i $. En svekkelse av NOK er vel positivt for kursen på OSE ?
Kbkristi
29.11.2017 kl 08:35
10790
God morgen godtfolk.
Malmen stiger friskt med vel 2% i dag.
Kursen kan virke som om den er frosset fast, men vil si at det bekymrer meg ikke. Vi har så gode rater nå, at vi vil få betalt rikelig i utbytte.
Limer inn et sitat fra Nordea tidligere i år:
"10 prosent høyere skipsverdier er lik 12 kroner pr aksje, ifølge Nordea, og en økning i spotratene på 1.000 dollar pr dag er lik 30 millioner dollar i fullt investert EBITDA, tilsvarende 1,8 kroner pr aksje. "
Gogl blir som en trykkoker, og utbytte neste år kan bli en drøm :)
Malmen stiger friskt med vel 2% i dag.
Kursen kan virke som om den er frosset fast, men vil si at det bekymrer meg ikke. Vi har så gode rater nå, at vi vil få betalt rikelig i utbytte.
Limer inn et sitat fra Nordea tidligere i år:
"10 prosent høyere skipsverdier er lik 12 kroner pr aksje, ifølge Nordea, og en økning i spotratene på 1.000 dollar pr dag er lik 30 millioner dollar i fullt investert EBITDA, tilsvarende 1,8 kroner pr aksje. "
Gogl blir som en trykkoker, og utbytte neste år kan bli en drøm :)
KJEPET
29.11.2017 kl 08:59
10730
Ja, her er det bare å lene seg tilbake kbkristi og la pengene renne inn på kontoen etterhvert:-)
Når vi nå forhåpentligvis drar oss mot $30.000/day, blir det fort minst 10.- NOK i utbytte neste år. Markedet virker paralysert om dagen når det gjelder shipping. Kjøperne sitter på gjerdet og venter. Hva de venter på nå vet jeg ikke.
Men som du sier er dette en trykkoker som nå straks sprekker. Bare å se på hvordan stålprisene tar helt av i Kina nå. Lagrene med stål er lave og de får ikke produsert nok på grunn av restriksjonene. Eneste måten å få så mye så mulig stål ut av pelletsen på er å kjøpe malm med høyt jerninnhold. Dette må importeres og tonne mile øker:-)
Når vi nå forhåpentligvis drar oss mot $30.000/day, blir det fort minst 10.- NOK i utbytte neste år. Markedet virker paralysert om dagen når det gjelder shipping. Kjøperne sitter på gjerdet og venter. Hva de venter på nå vet jeg ikke.
Men som du sier er dette en trykkoker som nå straks sprekker. Bare å se på hvordan stålprisene tar helt av i Kina nå. Lagrene med stål er lave og de får ikke produsert nok på grunn av restriksjonene. Eneste måten å få så mye så mulig stål ut av pelletsen på er å kjøpe malm med høyt jerninnhold. Dette må importeres og tonne mile øker:-)
Kbkristi
29.11.2017 kl 09:10
10765
Jeg tror allerede med nåværende rater, om de beholdes, vil forsvare et utbytte på 12-13 kroner. Jeg har vært med tidligere på at Gogl gir all fortjeneste ut i utbytte.
Med rater på 30k, vil utbytte skyte enda 10 kroner i været. Da snakker vi om 20-25 kroner i utbytte.
Med rater på 30k, vil utbytte skyte enda 10 kroner i været. Da snakker vi om 20-25 kroner i utbytte.
jama
29.11.2017 kl 09:32
10647
På Nordnet kan vi ikke lenger se hvilke meglerhus som kjøper/selger aksjer. Det har vært slik denne uken og jeg vet ikke om det er en feil eller om de har sluttet med å oppgi hvilke meglerhus som handler aksjer. Det er ikke kommet noen melding om dette. Skulle gjerne sett hvilke meglerhus som handler gogl. Antakelig er det MS som fortsatt prøver å konrollere gogl-kursen.
Sa2ri
29.11.2017 kl 09:33
10634
Minner om MSI sin oppdatering etter 3Q17-fremleggelsen. I deres bull-scenario har de også sagt noe om utbytte:
"Bull $16
12-18 month fwd EV/Fleet Value: 110-115%
NAV: $12-13/sh
DPS: $1.00
Steel and iron ore prices rise further, driving iron ore freight rates from Australia to China to $10-11/ton. Strong Chinese demand and rising commodity prices, coupled with shrinking fleet supply, accelerate recovery. Capesize and Panamax rates rise to $30kpd/$17kpd respectively allowing GOGL to return to profitability by the end of 2017. GOGL is using its stock as a currency to expand further. Asset values increase another 15-20% from our base case, and GOGL's NAV rises to $12-13/sh. GOGL is able to pay a dividend of at least $0.90-1.10 (at 50% EPS payout)."
"Bull $16
12-18 month fwd EV/Fleet Value: 110-115%
NAV: $12-13/sh
DPS: $1.00
Steel and iron ore prices rise further, driving iron ore freight rates from Australia to China to $10-11/ton. Strong Chinese demand and rising commodity prices, coupled with shrinking fleet supply, accelerate recovery. Capesize and Panamax rates rise to $30kpd/$17kpd respectively allowing GOGL to return to profitability by the end of 2017. GOGL is using its stock as a currency to expand further. Asset values increase another 15-20% from our base case, and GOGL's NAV rises to $12-13/sh. GOGL is able to pay a dividend of at least $0.90-1.10 (at 50% EPS payout)."
Sa2ri
29.11.2017 kl 09:35
10699
Dette er en endring Oslo Børs har gjort, og noe som er kommunisert på en tidligere GOGL-tråd. Meglerhusene ser heller ike hvem som er motpart I sine transaksjoner, så det nytter ikke å spørre der heller.
Kbkristi
29.11.2017 kl 09:46
10565
Gogl er stor nok nå. Hvorfor skal de bruke penger på å bli større nå, når vi har et vindu på 2-3 år hvor ratene vil være høye.
De vil da bruke av aksjonærenes verdier på å ha en kjempeflåte når nedturen kommer neste gang.
Så dumme tror jeg ikke Gogls ledelse er.
Nå må vi først få betalt for vår investering, så kan de tenke på videre ekspansjon.
De vil da bruke av aksjonærenes verdier på å ha en kjempeflåte når nedturen kommer neste gang.
Så dumme tror jeg ikke Gogls ledelse er.
Nå må vi først få betalt for vår investering, så kan de tenke på videre ekspansjon.
Sa2ri
29.11.2017 kl 09:53
10642
Slik jeg tolker MSI henviser de til den emisjonen som nettopp ble gjort, ikke eventuelle fremtidige emisjoner. Når det er sagt, innvannende emisjoner hvor NAV øker er jo bra, ikke negativt. Synes ellers det er interessant hva de sier om utbytte og en payout på 50%. Dersom GOGL velger å betale en høyere andel, og vi fortsetter å se rater godt over det de bruker som "base-case", ja da kan utbyttene bli flotte i tiden fremover.