STOREBRAND Solvency beat
Fra DNB engelske analyser
STOREBRAND Solvency beat – again A Q2 Solvency II ratio of 163% was 2%-points higher than consensus – and provided the third consecutive quarterly beat, further strengthening dividend capacity at the group. Through improved buffer-building and a reduced duration mismatch, Storebrand has also eased its sensitivity to interest rate and stock market shocks. We are 20–50% above consensus on 2018–2020e DPS, and believe a continued strengthening of the Solvency II ratio is likely to provide a share price catalyst. We have made only small EPS estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price.
Reduced Solvency II ratio sensitivity. Through increased buffer capital-building and a reduction in the duration mismatch, Storebrand has eased its Solvency II ratio sensitivity to market shocks. We calculate a 50bp negative shift in the interest rate curve would now hit the Solvency II ratio by a mere 6%-points, while a 25% correction in share prices would only have a 10%-point negative impact.
Solvency beat – again. Storebrand’s Solvency II ratio improved from 160% in Q1 to 163% in Q2, beating consensus by 2%-points as well as its net Solvency II capital generation guidance of 1.25% each quarter, given at its CMD in May. We believe the market is underestimating Storebrand’s Solvency II capital generation capability, and therefore also its dividend capacity.
BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price reiterated. We see significant upside potential to our target price, comprising the value of the DPS from the build-down of the guaranteed book (NOK19/share) and the fast-growing non-guaranteed segment (2018e P/E of 14x). Near-term, we see a potential share price catalyst in the Solvency II ratio beating expectations, as Storebrand continues to generate capital and optimise its solvency through balance-sheet adjustments. We are 20–50% above consensus on our 2018–2020e DPS, on what appear to be our more optimistic solvency generation assumptions. Storebrand has generated close to twice as much capital as it guided for at its CMD in 2016. With what we perceive to be relatively conservative solvency capital guidance at its previous CMD in May, we continue to expect Storebrand to beat expectations.
BUY
STOREBRAND Solvency beat – again A Q2 Solvency II ratio of 163% was 2%-points higher than consensus – and provided the third consecutive quarterly beat, further strengthening dividend capacity at the group. Through improved buffer-building and a reduced duration mismatch, Storebrand has also eased its sensitivity to interest rate and stock market shocks. We are 20–50% above consensus on 2018–2020e DPS, and believe a continued strengthening of the Solvency II ratio is likely to provide a share price catalyst. We have made only small EPS estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price.
Reduced Solvency II ratio sensitivity. Through increased buffer capital-building and a reduction in the duration mismatch, Storebrand has eased its Solvency II ratio sensitivity to market shocks. We calculate a 50bp negative shift in the interest rate curve would now hit the Solvency II ratio by a mere 6%-points, while a 25% correction in share prices would only have a 10%-point negative impact.
Solvency beat – again. Storebrand’s Solvency II ratio improved from 160% in Q1 to 163% in Q2, beating consensus by 2%-points as well as its net Solvency II capital generation guidance of 1.25% each quarter, given at its CMD in May. We believe the market is underestimating Storebrand’s Solvency II capital generation capability, and therefore also its dividend capacity.
BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price reiterated. We see significant upside potential to our target price, comprising the value of the DPS from the build-down of the guaranteed book (NOK19/share) and the fast-growing non-guaranteed segment (2018e P/E of 14x). Near-term, we see a potential share price catalyst in the Solvency II ratio beating expectations, as Storebrand continues to generate capital and optimise its solvency through balance-sheet adjustments. We are 20–50% above consensus on our 2018–2020e DPS, on what appear to be our more optimistic solvency generation assumptions. Storebrand has generated close to twice as much capital as it guided for at its CMD in 2016. With what we perceive to be relatively conservative solvency capital guidance at its previous CMD in May, we continue to expect Storebrand to beat expectations.
BUY
pedro1
14.07.2018 kl 11:19
3039
Bare ledelsen ikke gjør noen strukturelle tabber, så vil Cashen utbetales til aksjonærene. Cashen som er holdt tilbake i oppbyggingen skal tilbake i stort tempo +++ overskuddsdelingen. 4-5 kroner i overskuddsdeling + tilbakebetaling av buffer (SII)på 2 kroner i året blir et brukbart utbytte om et par år burde forsvare en kurs på 110 -120
nyulv
14.07.2018 kl 17:12
2901
STOREBRAND Solvency beat – again A Q2 Solvency II ratio of 163% was 2%-points higher than consensus – and provided the third consecutive quarterly beat, further strengthening dividend capacity at the group. Through improved buffer-building and a reduced duration mismatch, Storebrand has also eased its sensitivity to interest rate and stock market shocks. We are 20–50% above consensus on 2018–2020e DPS, and believe a continued strengthening of the Solvency II ratio is likely to provide a share price catalyst. We have made only small EPS estimate changes following the report, and reiterate our BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price.
Reduced Solvency II ratio sensitivity. Through increased buffer capital-building and a reduction in the duration mismatch, Storebrand has eased its Solvency II ratio sensitivity to market shocks. We calculate a 50bp negative shift in the interest rate curve would now hit the Solvency II ratio by a mere 6%-points, while a 25% correction in share prices would only have a 10%-point negative impact.
Solvency beat – again. Storebrand’s Solvency II ratio improved from 160% in Q1 to 163% in Q2, beating consensus by 2%-points as well as its net Solvency II capital generation guidance of 1.25% each quarter, given at its CMD in May. We believe the market is underestimating Storebrand’s Solvency II capital generation capability, and therefore also its dividend capacity.
BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price reiterated. We see significant upside potential to our target price, comprising the value of the DPS from the build-down of the guaranteed book (NOK19/share) and the fast-growing non-guaranteed segment (2018e P/E of 14x). Near-term, we see a potential share price catalyst in the Solvency II ratio beating expectations, as Storebrand continues to generate capital and optimise its solvency through balance-sheet adjustments. We are 20–50% above consensus on our 2018–2020e DPS, on what appear to be our more optimistic solvency generation assumptions. Storebrand has generated close to twice as much capital as it guided for at its CMD in 2016. With what we perceive to be relatively conservative solvency capital guidance at its previous CMD in May, we continue to expect Storebrand to beat expectations.
BUY
Svar på hovedinnlegg
pedro1
I dag kl 11:19
137
Del
Rapportér
Bare ledelsen ikke gjør noen strukturelle tabber, så vil Cashen utbetales til aksjonærene. Cashen som er holdt tilbake i oppbyggingen skal tilbake i stort tempo +++ overskuddsdelingen. 4-5 kroner i overskuddsdeling + tilbakebetaling av buffer (SII)på 2 kroner i året blir et brukbart utbytte om et par år burde forsvare en kurs på 110 -120
Jeg ser fram til at STB-aksjen stiger mye framover.
Lykke til alle!
Reduced Solvency II ratio sensitivity. Through increased buffer capital-building and a reduction in the duration mismatch, Storebrand has eased its Solvency II ratio sensitivity to market shocks. We calculate a 50bp negative shift in the interest rate curve would now hit the Solvency II ratio by a mere 6%-points, while a 25% correction in share prices would only have a 10%-point negative impact.
Solvency beat – again. Storebrand’s Solvency II ratio improved from 160% in Q1 to 163% in Q2, beating consensus by 2%-points as well as its net Solvency II capital generation guidance of 1.25% each quarter, given at its CMD in May. We believe the market is underestimating Storebrand’s Solvency II capital generation capability, and therefore also its dividend capacity.
BUY recommendation and NOK95 target price reiterated. We see significant upside potential to our target price, comprising the value of the DPS from the build-down of the guaranteed book (NOK19/share) and the fast-growing non-guaranteed segment (2018e P/E of 14x). Near-term, we see a potential share price catalyst in the Solvency II ratio beating expectations, as Storebrand continues to generate capital and optimise its solvency through balance-sheet adjustments. We are 20–50% above consensus on our 2018–2020e DPS, on what appear to be our more optimistic solvency generation assumptions. Storebrand has generated close to twice as much capital as it guided for at its CMD in 2016. With what we perceive to be relatively conservative solvency capital guidance at its previous CMD in May, we continue to expect Storebrand to beat expectations.
BUY
Svar på hovedinnlegg
pedro1
I dag kl 11:19
137
Del
Rapportér
Bare ledelsen ikke gjør noen strukturelle tabber, så vil Cashen utbetales til aksjonærene. Cashen som er holdt tilbake i oppbyggingen skal tilbake i stort tempo +++ overskuddsdelingen. 4-5 kroner i overskuddsdeling + tilbakebetaling av buffer (SII)på 2 kroner i året blir et brukbart utbytte om et par år burde forsvare en kurs på 110 -120
Jeg ser fram til at STB-aksjen stiger mye framover.
Lykke til alle!
Redigert 14.07.2018 kl 17:13
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Oddbear1
14.07.2018 kl 22:24
2778
"We see significant upside potential to our target price" er den setningen jeg liker aller best!
Mulig jeg skal putte en større andel av porteføljen i langsiktige STB aksjer. Spennende å se hva utbytte blir fremover?!
Mulig jeg skal putte en større andel av porteføljen i langsiktige STB aksjer. Spennende å se hva utbytte blir fremover?!
babols
15.07.2018 kl 21:18
2519
I morgen 09:00 er det analytikerkonferanse i London i.f.m med Q2. Tipper vi får en del oppjusterte estimater og kursmål fra de utenlandske etter dette..
Redigert 15.07.2018 kl 21:19
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