Min forventing er 11-13kr i utbytte 4kv 19 og 1kv 20 basert på 3kv rapporten og gjennomsnittlig slutning fra 3kv inn i 4kv var 78% av vlcc kapasiteten dems. Antar at de har gjort det samme for inn i 1kv i 4kv og derav operer jeg med snitt rater basert på 70.000usd pr dag for vlcc i 4kv og snitt på 60.000pr 1kv i 2020 for vlcc. Har lagt til grunn halvparten på resten av flåten. Får da at i 4kv forventer jeg 2,1mill usd pr dag i innt og 92 dager. 1,6mill pr dag i 1kv 2020 og 91dager. Blir da 1,7usd pr aksje i utbytte kapasitet for 4kv 19 og 1kv 20. Så 1,2-1,4usd pr aksje burde være realistisk utbytte. Og i min beregning har jeg da estimert litt forsiktig slutningene gjort i 4kv inn i 1kv basert på at ratene var på 100.000usd på tidspunkt i vinter, men med lave rater nå så havner kanskje snittet på 60 000usd likevel, kommer an på hvor mange gode deals som ble gjort i 4kv og årsskifte på lengre spot kontrakter og evt andre kontrakter.

Bare kommenter hvis regnestykkene mine er helt på trynet.

Når et selskap har marginer på 120% burde kanskje kursen stige og ikke synke 35% -:).De sitter fort igjen med minst det dobbelte av kostnadene i Q4 og Q1 og videre utover året....
Det rr lett å gjøre investeringsvalg når bildet er så klart som nå.

Nå er det ikke de normale sesongvariasjonene, men usikkerhet knyttet til de langsiktige konsekvensene av situasjonen i Kina som har kjørt aksjekursen i kjelleren.

Kursen kommer til å stige veldig dersom feks utbytte blir en dollar for et kvartal. Da har man fort direkteavkastning på godt over 30 prosent for hele året (og da tar jeg hensyn til St utbytte kan bli mindre senere i året).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/global-stocks-and-oil-prices-rally-on-coronavirus-drug-hopes.html

Frontlines fall er like fundamentalt feil som Teslas oppgang. Begge vil korrigere mot normal verdsetting når spekulantene har gjort seg ferdig med å shorte den ene og kjøpe tilbake shorten på den andre.

Med dagens prising vil man fort få minst 30 prosent årlig utbytte i FRO. Dette vil selvsagt presse prisen opp.

Er en grunn til at sjefen selv hamstret aksjer rundt 103 kr skal du se.

16:34
Frontline Ltd. (Frontline or the Company) today announced that Frontline Shipping Limited (FSL) has agreed with SFL Corporation Ltd. (SFL) to terminate the long term charter for the 2002-built very large crude carrier (VLCC) Front Hakata upon the sale and delivery of the vessel by SFL to an unrelated third party. Frontline will receive a compensation payment of approximately $3.2 million from SFL for the termination of the current charter. The charter with SFL is expected to terminate in the first quarter of 2020.

Following this termination, Frontline will have two VLCCs on charter from SFL.

February 05, 2020

The Board of Directors

Frontline Ltd.

Hamilton, Bermuda

Questions should be directed to:

Robert Hvide Macleod: CEO, Frontline Management AS

+47 23 11 40 84

Inger M. Klemp: CFO, Frontline Management AS

Spot ratene er sååå gode at Frontline selvsakt vil benytte seg av markedet.

I gjennomgangen av q3 - 27. nov 2019 - ga Inger Klemp følgende svar relatert til cash flow/ utbyttekapasitet:

As we have said before, every $1,000 per day in achieved rates in excess of our cash breakeven base translates to approximately $22 million in incremental cash flow after debt service per year or $0.11 per share, which shows the high importance of maintaining this low cash breakeven rate.

Then in the graph on the right-hand side of the slide, we have shown incremental cash flow after debt service per year and per share, assuming $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 and $40,000 per day in achieved rates in excess of our cash breakeven base, respectively. As an example, assuming a VLCC rate of $55,000 per day and an implied relative Suezmax tanker and LR2 tanker rates, basis the Clarksons 10-year average, we get to an average rate for our fleet of $46,000 per day, which is approximately $27,000 above our average cash breakeven rate. Thus, in such scenario, Frontline would have a cash flow per share after debt service of about $2.98, close to $3 per share.

Dette bør da gi en realistisk utbytteforventning på NOK 20 på årsbasis hensyntatt normale svingninger i ratene.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-fro-ol-earnings-233504329.html

Og 20 kr på årsbasis betyr at vi kan forvente 5 kr nå i det kvartalet. Det er bra. Det blir hele 30.000 for min del. Husk at 20 kr på årsbasis er 20 prosent rente på pengene ved kurs på 100 kr. Det er enormt! Ved kurs på 80, betyr dette en avkastning på utrolige 25 prosent. Det er vel knapt noen aksjer som har sånn avkastning på Oslo børs.

+ du kan vente med og selge til kursen er på 160 som Kepler nylig har gjentatt med sin kjøps anbefaling. Ser ingen bedre case på ose akkurat nå.

5kr pr aksje er mer enn jeg forventer, blir roughly 75k kr på meg da :) Operer selv med 3 kr men liker å bli positivt overrasket.

Et like bra case er Hunter.... Begge 2 er nå blitt tulle priset av små spekulanter som aldri fått et øre i utbytte.

Har denne bunnet ut nå eller skal den videre nedover?

Active positions
CSV JSON
Position Holder
Short Position
Short Percent
Position Date (dd.mm.yyyy)
QVT FINANCIAL LP
2 998 135
1,77%
24.05.2019
------------------
Hvordan skal en tolke denne?

De klarte nok ikke å dekke inn shorten før aksjen begynte å gå i august.. Nå er FRO omtrent nede på nivåer fra Mai i fjor, så jeg ville ikke sett bort i fra at denne posisjonen dekkes inn i nærmeste fremtid.. Kineserne viser godvilje og reduserer toll på amerikanske varer fra 14 februar.. Vi nærmer oss bunnen tror jeg, selv om Q1 ligger an til å bli svakere for tank enn forventet, så vil man nok begynne å se frem mot andre halvdel av året snart;)

Hold deg til fakta gutt:

Euronav (EURN) finished 2019 with its best result in years. The fourth quarter showed a profit of USD 160 million, and CEO Hugo De Stoop said in an earnings teleconference that "the first quarter of 2020 is so far even stronger than fourth quarter of 2019. We have booked around 60 percent of the quarter at close to USD 90,000 per day for the VLCC and USD 57,000 per day for our suezmax."


DHT made $75.9 million in net income for the fourth quarter – the highest quarterly result in the
company’s 15-year history
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $116.3 million. The net income of $75.9 million equates to $0.52 per basic
share.
• In the fourth quarter of 2019 the Company’s VLCCs operating in the spot market achieved $59,200per day and
the Company’s VLCCs on time-charter earned $54,600 per day achieving combined time charter equivalent
earnings for the Company’s VLCCs of $58,500 per day. The resultfor the Company’s VLCCs operating in the spot
market adjusted for the IFRS 15 impact was $63,900 per day for the fourth quarter of 2019.
• Thus far in the firstquarter of 2020, 58% of the available VLCC spot days have been booked at an averagerate
of $81,600per dayon a discharge to discharge basis.

Har du ikke fått med deg den ekstra ratesvekkelsen i Q1 pga virus og frislepp av Coscos VLCCs?
Derfor svakere enn forventet..

Fikk tak i 20k aksjer i FRO i dag til gitt bort pris

Coscos restriksjoner gjaldt kun skipning
fra amerikanske havner. Dessuten fikk de
i stor grad dispensasjon fra restriksjonene,
så effekten var muligens ikke så stor ?

- "The effect of the sanctions was a reduction in supply, and as a result, tanker rates were still reasonably high," wrote Ben Nolan, Stifel Maritime analyst, in a note on Friday. "With the lifting of sanctions, about 2-3% of the global crude tanker fleet (particularly the VLCCs) will immediately rejoin the global trading fleet and drive tanker rates down."
Nolan estimated that 20-25 VLCCs (very large crude carriers) of an estimated global fleet of about 800 were idled or "underutilized" after OFAC imposed the sanctions against the Chinese tanker operators.
Meanwhile, crude tanker rates currently face a "negative headwind," Nolan said.
"Crude tanker rates have already been falling this year, with VLCC rates down from about $100,000/day to closer to $50,000/day currently," he said.

Link:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-lifts-sanctions-against-coscos-211105284.html

Ratene er langt under 50k sist jeg sjekket??

Artikkelen er vel en uke gammel og ratene som nevnes enda eldre tenker jeg.. Men det illustrerer poenget da.. Ratefall og atter ratefall. VCCL ligger vel på 14.000 nå (Poten).. Akkurat nå er det også 38% flere skip enn laster for de neste 30 dagene i Midt-østen.. ( Hannisdahl tweet ) Det bekrefter jo bare innlegget mitt over her om svakere q1 enn forventet for tank. Inntjeningen i spot blir ikke nok mye å skryte av for mars/april iallfall..
Til ekspertene her inne, vil denne ratesvekkelsen ha mye å si for skipsverdiene? Jeg tviler jo litt på om Spetalen ville kjøpt for 106 musd nå..

De amerikanske børsene setter nye ATH og priser inn at Corona kun blir en hump i veien for verdensøkonomien. Hvis det stemmer vil det også blir kortvarig tørke i oljemarkedet. Jeg kjøper derfor mer på dette nivået og setter samtidig en short i DJIA som hedge.

Q1 blir selvsakt meget bra da båtene allerede er på 60'-70 dagers kontrakter. Ratene er ikke på 14k men 44k hvilket er 20k over frontlines break Even !. Det er så mye svada her på forumet av brukere som ikke er oppdatert på noe. Med 20k over break Even vil Frontline ha Usd 2.93 i cash pr aksje. Dere må lese rapporter ikke bare overskriften på Hegnar.

Skipsverdier vil stige enormt fremover. Etter 2022 er det null nye båter i bestilling.. Dere må lese frontlines q3 rapport for 2019.
65% av båtene er over 17 år...
Har du ny båt med scrubbere nå sitter du på gull

Det du skriver er helt korrekt, og det er innbakt i dagens aksjekurs. Årsaken til at aksjekursen faller er at investorene er usikker på markedet etter Q1.

Shippingekspert: Alvorlig krise i nær fremtid https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2020/02/06/7495202/shippingekspert-alvorlig-krise-i-naer-fremtid

Hvordan kommer du frem til 44k? Jeg ser på tradewinds at ratene er 14k hvis man også legger til 15 for skipene med scrubber så får en 29k?

74 kr i US nå!

Okeanis sin Nissos Keros er på subs idag på 42k dagen

De som sier de er usikker på tank fremover snakker for sin syke mor. Det er shortet mye i tank nå som forsterker fallet.
De eneste som MÅ kjøpe aksjer i tank er de som et short.
Frykt utnyttes av spekulanter som skremmer andre.
Ta det med ro og kjøp flere aksjer nå når du har mulighet til konkurs priser

epending on fuel spreads, overall oil pricing levels, and vessel sizes, a combination of eco-design vessels and scrubbers could outperform older scrubber-free vessels by as much as $20k-$30k/day. In certain markets, such as VLCC tankers, it would be possible for modern ships from an entity like DHT Holdings (DHT) or Frontline (FRO) to be earning solid rates like $30,000/day even during heavy downturns, while weaker peers barely achieved $10,000/day and would be forced to scrap or go bankrupt.


Higher Fuel Costs Drives Slow Steaming = Future Supply Down

Another longer-term benefit of IMO 2020 is that global average fuel costs will increase for shippers. This will likely lead to increased 'slow steaming' to attempt to reduce vessel fuel consumption rates. Slow steaming is always a balance between fuel costs and charter rates, so this is only something that occurs when fuel costs are enormous or when market rates are terrible. It is moreso a balancing tool and adds to the aforementioned benefits. Slow steaming won't lead to gigantic market rates as vessels would then simply speed up since fuel costs would be less of a relative factor.

IMO 2020 offers the potential for massive market stabilization and both stronger upcycles and lesser downcycles throughout the next 5 years, but it's not some 'magic effect' that would make all markets amazing into 2020. Yes, there are some shorter-term benefits, but a lot of those have been misunderstood by investors.

IMO 2020 Short-Term Benefits vs. Misconceptions
In addition to the longer-term benefit of supply rationalization, IMO 2020 was expected to cause significant disruption in fuel markets and in available vessel supply via four facets:

Scrubber Installation Offhire
Compliant VLSFO & Legacy HSFO Storage Spikes
Increased Trading Demand for Blends & Components
Potential Offhire Due to Contaminated Fuels
Scrubber Installation Offhire = Current and Near-Term Supply Down

If a shipowner wants to burn the cheaper fuels, they need to install scrubbers which range from $3-5M on average in this market. This is an expensive proposition for an older ship and the fuel savings are less on a modern eco-design vessel, so the primary candidates are typically middle-aged tonnage.

These scrubber installations were projected to take about 30 days, but delays ended up stretching installation periods to up to 50-60 days. As an additional near-term wrinkle, the Coronavirus impacts might further delay these still ongoing retrofits. This offhire is primarily a 2H-2019 through 1H-2021 benefit, and the latter levels of scrubber installations will depend on fuel spreads.

Scrubber installation offhire has exceeded our expectations due to delays, but the super-strong tanker rates actually caused a lot of owners to defer their scrubber installations, netting the catalyst out to a 'push.' The upside is that this means more scrubber installations are expected during 2020.

Storage Requirement Spikes = Current and Near-Term Demand Up

In order to properly prepare for a surge in demand for compliant VLSFO, an unprecedented amount of fuel storage was required. Since VLSFO still contains sulfur, it is still considered a 'dirty' fuel and, therefore, is stored on convention crude oil tankers as opposed to 'clean' product tankers. We saw significant spikes in storage requirements in mid-2019, which began to taper down towards the end of the year.

A lot of this storage was simply to meet surging demand requirements since refinery outputs weren't properly geared for steady-state production runs, but some of the storage was particularly designed to fuel hedge, such as that done by Euronav (EURN) as discussed in our exclusive October 2019 interview.

As we push further into 2020, the VLSFO storage is likely to decline, but we should see a pick-up in HSFO storage while production outpaced near-term demand. As a larger percentage of the global fleet finalizes their scrubber installations, we will then expect to see drawdowns from this storage.

This is primarily a 2H-2019 through late-2020 catalyst and not a long-term benefit, but has thus far been playing out according to expectations.

Increased Blend Trading = Near-Term Product Tanker Demand Up

Another expected near-term catalyst is the increased trading in blending components for compliant fuels. There are two primary ways to supply VLSFO to the market, straight-run refinery production and after-market blends from fuel components. These potential blends are discussed in more detail in a recent Argus Media update, and the market-specific impacts were discussed in our exclusive interview with Scorpio Tankers (STNG) last fall.

Since the majority of the blending components would be 'clean' products, this shift from initial first-run production to post-market blending is expected to significantly increase the near-term and medium-term demand for product tankers, lifting demand in 2020-2021.

We haven't seen a significant lift in these trades yet except for a few spikes in late-2019, so of all the IMO 2020 impacts, this is closest to a 'flop,' but we're just five weeks into what is expected to be a multi-year transition, so it's pretty early to call this one.

Contaminated Fuel Issues = Near-Term Supply Down

A potential impact of the IMO 2020 transition was the likelihood for lots of fuel contamination, which could cause vessel delays due to fuel cleaning requirements or even outright engine failure. In the perverse world of shipping investing, a massive bout of engine failures is actually an extremely bullish catalyst as it takes supply off the market. We're seeing lots of reports of sediment issues, but it hasn't been enough to cause disruptions yet.

This was primarily a potential 'bonus' catalyst for 2020, and although it's too early to call for sure, it looks like overall fuel quality is higher than expected, leading this potential catalyst to be mostly a 'miss.'

Additional Ancillary Findings
Our lead macro analyst at Value Investor's Edge, James Catlin, has recently provided a clear update on some of the IMO 2020 implementation nuances, so rather than restate most of those, I highly recommend reviewing his latest public update along with his entire series on the regulation, some of which I've linked here (these are in chronological order, starting in October 2016):

Another IMO Mandate Set To Impact Shipping Profits
IMO Emissions Mandate Update: Comprehensive Review Of Options
The Hottest Topic In Shipping
Shipping's 2020 Sulfur Cap: A Popular Question Is Answered
2020 Sulfur Cap - Panic And Shock Ahead?
2020 Sulfur Cap: Scrubbers Gain Favor - But Should They?
Readers can see that we've been well ahead of this regulatory curve, and this led to strong success in 2019. Unfortunately, some of the latest 'hot money' traders, particularly in tankers, bit off on some misconceptions instead of focusing on the catalysts I've described above (both long-term supply regulators and short-term disruption boosts).

Addressing Misconceptions
There are lots of misconceptions floating around, but I'll try to address some of the primary ones below:

IMO 2020 Will Eliminate Seasonality
IMO 2020 Will Kick-Off a Massive Supercycle Starting in 2020
IMO 2020 Will Lead to Massive Oil Sector Chaos: $100+/bbl
Misconception #1: Seasonality Eliminated
This is one of the more extreme viewpoints I've seen floating around, but during our IMO 2020 & Tanker Forum we held during early-January, there were a lot of investors and traders who acted shocked when tanker rates started falling. This was actually a fairly popular (albeit unfounded) sentiment among traders. I've posted a clip from our chat boards below as an example. There were dozens of such sentiments boiling down to:

"IMO 2020 will cause such a disruption that seasonality will be gone!"



We've had heavy seasonality in tanker markets for 20 of the past 20 years, and of course, in the 21st year, we once again have seasonality. This was prior to the Coronavirus demand-shock, which is further reducing immediate and front-quarter demand. Seasonal curves and temporary demand shocks have nothing to do with whether IMO 2020 is a 'flop' or not. According to data provided by Clarksons Shipping Intelligence, we can see that average tanker earnings have been exceedingly volatile over the past two decades.

FRA DHT RAPPORTEN I DAG:Whilst the non-eco, non-scrubber ship will make about $16,500 a day in the current market, a scrubber fitted eco ship will make more than twice that, namely about $35,400 per day. You can also see that the scrubber premium base and current bunker prices are about $13,700 a day for non-eco ships and $9,400 per day for eco ships. It is lower for the eco ships because of lower consumption, of course. The eco premium is about $9,500 a day for non-scrubber ship, while it drops to $5,200 a day for scrubber fitted

Vet ikke hvem som farer med svada her gitt.. Trådens tema er hvor bunnen er. Du virker mer opptatt av å forsvare egne disposisjoner.. Og et kvartal er ikke 60, men 90 dager. Hvis du ikke ser at ratene for de siste 30 dagene av Q1 ikke blir verken 100k eller 44k, ja da bør du kanskje skaffe nye briller;)
Det er faktisk en grunn til at Frontline har falt 30% på 2-3 uker..

Fortell. Hva er grunnen til frontline har sunket over 30 %? Gleder meg til å høre dine fundamentale begrunnelser for dette.

capital.
i følge dht er dagens rater for eco med scrubbere 35k.
Du er ikke pålest. du leser bare overskrifter på fa.
ingen har sakt at ratene ville bli 120k. Det er ikke levedyktig.
Analytikere har kursmål på Frontline på kr 200 basert på rater rundt 58k i snitt for året. Da kan Frontline dele ut usd 2.5 i utbytte.
jeg har ikke kjøpt Frontline men Hunter for å få 100% scrubbere premie i dårlige tider !!!. Les litt så blir ting litt klarere for deg.
De fleste av Frontlines båter er på time charter. Et så stort selskap kan ikke ha alle båtene i spot.Mye av inntekten for 2020 er allerede sikkret og klar.
Med så lite fundamentale kunnskaper er det ikke rart kursene går ville veier-:)

Når Kina er stengt ned, verdens største importør, forstår alle at det blir stor overkapasitet en periode og ratene faller samtidig som det er sesongs svigninger.
Men kina vil jo starte opp igjen og høysesongen komme.
jeeezes.